Commodities Market Module Work Book: Nse'S Certification in Financial Markets
Commodities Market Module Work Book: Nse'S Certification in Financial Markets
Commodities Market Module Work Book: Nse'S Certification in Financial Markets
Contents
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3.4.1
3.4.2
3.4.3
Trading.......................................................................................
Clearing......................................................................................
Settlement ..................................................................................
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CONTENTS
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CONTENTS
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Trading ..........................................................................................................
8.1 Futures trading system ............................................................................
8.2 Entities in the trading system .................................................................
8.2.1 Guidelines for allotment of client code .......................................
8.3 Contract specifications for commodity futures........................................
8.4 Commodity futures trading cycle ............................................................
8.5 Order types and trading parameters .........................................................
8.5.1 Permitted lot size ........................................................................
8.5.2 Tick size for contracts .................................................................
8.5.3 Quantity freeze ...........................................................................
8.5.4 Base price ...................................................................................
8.5.5 Price ranges of contracts .............................................................
8.5.6 Order entry on the trading system ...............................................
8.6 Margins for trading in futures..................................................................
8.7 Charges ..................................................................................................
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CONTENTS
9.4.2
9.4.3
9.4.4
9.4.5
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List of Tables
2.1 The global derivatives industry ........................................................................
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List of Tables
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List of Figures
5.1 Payoff for a buyer of gold ................................................................................
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5.7 Payoff for buyer of put option on long staple cotton .........................................
71
5.8 Payoff for writer of put option on long staple cotton ........................................
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Distribution of weights
Chapter
No.
1
Title
Weights
(%)
Introduction to derivatives
Commodity Derivatives
15
16
14
Trading
16
17
10
Regulatory framework
11
Copyright 2009 by National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) Exchange Plaza,
Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai 400 051. INDIA.
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transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise.
Chapter 1
Introduction to derivatives
The origin of derivatives can be traced back to the need of farmers to protect themselves against
fluctuations in the price of their crop. From the the time it was sown to the time it was ready for
harvest, farmers would face price uncertainty. Through the use of simple derivative products, it
was possible for the farmer to partially or fully transfer price risks by locking-in asset prices.
These were simple contracts developed to meet the needs of farmers and were basically a means
of reducing risk.
A farmer who sowed his crop in June faced uncertainty over the price he would receive for his
harvest in September. In years of scarcity, he would probably obtain attractive prices. However,
during times of oversupply, he would have to dispose off his harvest at a very low price. Clearly
this meant that the farmer and his family were exposed to a high risk of price uncertainty.
On the other hand, a merchant with an ongoing requirement of grains too would face a price
risk - that of having to pay exorbitant prices during dearth, although favourable prices could be
obtained during periods of oversupply. Under such circumstances, it clearly made sense for the
farmer and the merchant to come together and enter into a contract whereby the price of the grain
to be delivered in September could be decided earlier. What they would then negotiate happened
to be a futures-type contract, which would enable both parties to eliminate the price risk.
In 1848, the Chicago Board of Trade, or CBOT, was established to bring farmers and
merchants together. A group of traders got together and created the 'to-arrive' contract that
permitted farmers to lock in to price upfront and deliver the grain later. These to-arrive contracts
proved useful as a device for hedging and speculation on price changes. These were eventually
standardised, and in 1925 the first futures clearing house came into existence.
Today, derivative contracts exist on a variety of commodities such as corn, pepper, cotton,
wheat, silver, etc. Besides commodities, derivatives contracts also exist on a lot of financial
underlyings like stocks, interest rate, exchange rate, etc.
1.1
Derivatives defined
A derivative is a product whose value is derived from the value of one or more underlying
variables or assets in a contractual manner. The underlying asset can be equity, forex, commodity
12
Introduction to derivatives
or any other asset. In our earlier discussion, we saw that wheat farmers may wish to sell their
harvest at a future date to eliminate the risk of a change in prices by that date. Such a transaction is
an example of a derivative. The price of this derivative is driven by the spot price of wheat which
is the "underlying" in this case.
The Forwards Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952, regulates the forward/ futures contracts in
commodities all over India. As per this the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) continues to
have jurisdiction over commodity forward/ futures contracts. However when derivatives trading in
securities was introduced in 2001, the term "security" in the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act,
1956 (SCRA), was amended to include derivative contracts in securities. Consequently, regulation
of derivatives came under the perview of Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI). We thus
have separate regulatory authorities for securities and commodity derivative markets.
Derivatives are securities under the SCRA and hence the trading of derivatives is governed by
the regulatory framework under the SCRA. The Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956
(SC(R)A) defines "derivative" to include 1. A security derived from a debt instrument, share, loan whether secured or unsecured, risk instrument
or contract for differences or any other form of security.
2. A contract which derives its value from the prices, or index of prices, of underlying securities.
3. Arbitragers: Arbitragers work at making profits by taking advantage of discrepancy between prices of
the same product across different markets. If, for example, they see the futures price of an asset getting
out of line with the cash price, they would take offsetting positions in the two markets to lock in the
profit.
Whether the underlying asset is a commodity or a financial asset, derivative markets performs
a number of economic functions.
Prices in an organised derivatives market reflect the perception of market participants
about the future and lead the prices of underlying to the perceived future level. The prices of
derivatives converge with the prices of the underlying at the expiration of the derivative
contract. Thus derivatives help in discovery of future as well as current prices.
13
The derivatives market helps to transfer risks from those who have them but may not like them to those
who have an appetite for them.
Derivatives, due to their inherent nature, are linked to the underlying cash markets. With the
introduction of derivatives, the underlying market witnesses higher trading volumes because of
participation by more players who would not otherwise participate for lack of an arrangement to
transfer risk.
Speculative traders shift to a more controlled environment of the derivatives market. In the absence of
an organised derivatives market, speculators trade in the underlying cash markets. Margining,
monitoring and surveillance of the activities of various participants become extremely difficult in these
kind of mixed markets.
An important incidental benefit that flows from derivatives trading is that it acts as a catalyst for new
entrepreneurial activity. Derivatives have a history of attracting many bright, creative, well -educated
people with an entrepreneurial attitude. They often energize others to create new businesses, new
products and new employment opportunities, the benefit of which are immense.
Derivatives markets help increase savings and investment in the long run. The transfer of risk enables
market participants to expand their volume of activity.
14
Introduction to derivatives
the underlying. The most commonly used derivatives contracts are forwards, futures and options
which we shall discuss in detail later.
15
Early forward contracts in the US addressed merchants' concerns about ensuring that there were
buyers and sellers for commodities. However "credit risk" remained a serious problem. To deal
with this problem, a group of Chicago businessmen formed the Chicago Board of Trade
(CBOT) in 1848. The primary intention of the CBOT was to provide a centralised location known
in advance for buyers and sellers to negotiate forward contracts. In 1865, the CBOT went one
step further and listed the first "exchange traded" derivatives contract in the US, these contracts
were called "futures contracts". In 1919, Chicago Butter and Egg Board, a spin-off of CBOT, was
reorganised to allow futures trading. Its name was changed to Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(CME). The CBOT and the CME remain the two largest organised futures exchanges, indeed the
two largest "financial" exchanges of any kind in the world today.
The first stock index futures contract was traded at Kansas City Board of Trade. Currently the
most popular stock index futures contract in the world is based on S&P 500 index, traded on
Chicago Mercantile Exchange. During the mid eighties, financial futures became the most active
derivative instruments generating volumes many times more than the commodity futures. Index
futures, futures on T-bills and Euro-Dollar futures are the three most popular futures contracts
traded today. Other popular international exchanges that trade derivatives are LIFFE in England,
DTB in Germany, SGX in Singapore, TIFFE in Japan, MATIF in France, Eurex etc.
Box 1.2: History of commodity derivatives markets
many of these contracts were standardised in terms of quantity and delivery dates and began to trade
on an exchange.
The OTC derivatives markets have the following features compared to exchange-traded
derivatives:
1. The management of counter-party (credit) risk is decentralised and located within individual institutions.
2. There are no formal centralised limits on individual positions, leverage, or margining.
3. There are no formal rules for risk and burden-sharing.
4. There are no formal rules or mechanisms for ensuring market stability and integrity, and for
safeguarding the collective interests of market participants.
5. The OTC contracts are generally not regulated by a regulatory authority and the exchange's selfregulatory organisation, although they are affected indirectly by national legal systems, banking
supervision and market surveillance.
The OTC derivatives markets have witnessed rather sharp growth over the last few years, which
has accompanied the modernisation of commercial and investment banking and globalisation of
financial activities. The recent developments in information technology have contributed to a great
extent to these developments. While both exchange-traded and OTC derivative contracts offer many
benefits, the former have rigid structures compared to the latter.
The largest OTC derivative market is the interbank foreign exchange market. Commodity
derivatives the world over are typically exchange-traded and not OTC in nature.
16
Introduction to derivatives
Solved Problems
Q: Futures trading commenced first on
1. Chicago Board of Trade
2. Chicago Mercantile Exchange
A: The correct answer is number 1.
17
3. Volatility
2. Hedging
4. Risky
4. All of the
3. Stock options
2. Index options
3. Forward
2. Future
4. Swap
18
Introduction to derivatives
Chapter 2
Commodity derivatives
Derivatives as a tool for managing risk first originated in the commodities markets. They were
then found useful as a hedging tool in financial markets as well. In India, trading in commodity
futures has been in existence from the nineteenth century with organised trading in cotton through
the establishment of Cotton Trade Association in 1875. Over a period of time, other commodities
were permitted to be traded in futures exchanges. Regulatory constraints in 1960s resulted in
virtual dismantling of the commodities future markets. It is only in the last decade that commodity
future exchanges have been actively encouraged. However, the markets have been thin with poor
liquidity and have not grown to any significant level. In this chapter we look at how commodity
derivatives differ from financial derivatives. We also have a brief look at the global commodity
markets and the commodity markets that exist in India.
2.1
The basic concept of a derivative contract remains the same whether the underlying happens to be
a commodity or a financial asset. However there are some features which are very peculiar to
commodity derivative markets. In the case of financial derivatives, most of these contracts are
cash settled. Even in the case of physical settlement, financial assets are not bulky and do not need
special facility for storage. Due to the bulky nature of the underlying assets, physical settlement in
commodity derivatives creates the need for warehousing. Similarly, the concept of varying quality
of asset does not really exist as far as financial underlyings are concerned. However in the case of
commodities, the quality of the asset underlying a contract can vary largely. This becomes an
important issue to be managed. We have a brief look at these issues.
2.1.1
Physical settlement
Physical settlement involves the physical delivery of the underlying commodity, typically at an
accredited warehouse. The seller intending to make delivery would have to take the commodities
to the designated warehouse and the buyer intending to take delivery would have to go to the
designated warehouse and pick up the commodity. This may sound simple, but the physical
20
Commodity derivatives
settlement of commodities is a complex process. The issues faced in physical settlement are
enormous. There are limits on storage facilities in different states. There are restrictions on interstate
movement of commodities. Besides state level octroi and duties have an impact on the cost of
movement of goods across locations. The process of taking physical delivery in commodities is
quite different from the process of taking physical delivery in financial assets. We take a general
overview at the process flow of physical settlement of commodities. Later on we will look into
details of how physical settlement happens on the NCDEX.
A declaration verifying that the asset is free of any and all charges, including fiscal debts related to
the stored goods.
A provisional delivery order of the good to BM&F (Brazil), issued by the warehouse.
A warehouse certificate showing that storage and regular insurance have been paid.
Assignment
Whenever delivery notices are given by the seller, the clearing house of the exchange identifies the
buyer to whom this notice may be assigned. Exchanges follow different practices for the assignment
process. One approach is to display the delivery notice and allow buyers wishing to take delivery to
bid for taking delivery. Among the international exchanges, BMF, CBOT and CME display delivery
notices. Alternatively, the clearing houses may assign deliveries to buyers on some basis. Exchanges
such as COMMEX and the Indian commodities exchanges have adopted this method.
21
Any seller/ buyer who has given intention to deliver/ been assigned a delivery has an option to
square off positions till the market close of the day of delivery notice. After the close of trading,
exchanges assign the delivery intentions to open long positions. Assignment is done typically either
on random basis or first-in-first out basis. In some exchanges (CME), the buyer has the option to
give his preference for delivery location.
The clearing house decides on the daily delivery order rate at which delivery will be settled.
Delivery rate depends on the spot rate of the underlying adjusted for discount/ premium for quality
and freight costs. The discount/ premium for quality and freight costs are published by the clearing
house before introduction of the contract. The most active spot market is normally taken as the
benchmark for deciding spot prices. Alternatively, the delivery rate is determined based on the
previous day closing rate for the contract or the closing rate for the day.
Delivery
After the assignment process, clearing house/ exchange issues a delivery order to the buyer. The
exchange also informs the respective warehouse about the identity of the buyer. The buyer is
required to deposit a certain percentage of the contract amount with the clearing house as margin
against the warehouse receipt.
The period available for the buyer to take physical delivery is stipulated by the exchange. Buyer
or his authorised representative in the presence of seller or his representative takes the physical
stocks against the delivery order. Proof of physical delivery having been effected is forwarded by the
seller to the clearing house and the invoice amount is credited to the seller's account.
In India if a seller does not give notice of delivery then at the expiry of the contract the positions
are cash settled by price difference exactly as in cash settled equity futures contracts.
2.1.2 Warehousing
One of the main differences between financial and commodity derivative is the need for
warehousing. In case of most exchange-traded financial derivatives, all the positions are cash settled.
Cash settlement involves paying up the difference in prices between the time the contract was
entered into and the time the contract was closed. For instance, if a trader buys futures on a stock at
Rs.100 and on the day of expiration, the futures on that stock close Rs.120, he does not really have
to buy the underlying stock. All he does is take the difference of Rs.20 in cash. Similarly the person
who sold this futures contract at Rs.100, does not have to deliver the underlying stock. All he has to
do is pay up the loss of Rs.20 in cash.
In case of commodity derivatives however, there is a possibility of physical settlement. Which
means that if the seller chooses to hand over the commodity instead of the difference in cash, the
buyer must take physical delivery of the underlying asset. This requires the exchange to make an
arrangement with warehouses to handle the settlements. The efficacy of the commodities settlements
depends on the warehousing system available. Most international commodity exchanges used
certified warehouses (CWH) for the purpose of handling physical settlements. Such CWH are
required to provide storage facilities for participants in the commodities markets
22
Commodity derivatives
The New York Cotton Exchange has specified the asset in its orange juice futures contract as
"U.S Grade A, with Brix value of not less than 57 degrees, having a Brix value to acid ratio of
not less than 13 to 1 nor more than 19 to 1, with factors of color and flavour each scoring 37
points or higher and 19 for defects, with a minimum score 94".
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange in its random-length lumber futures contract has specified
that "Each delivery unit shall consist of nominal 'i y- is of random lengths from 8 feet to 20
feet, grade-stamped Construction Standard, Standard and Better, or #1 and #2; however, in no
case may the quantity of Standard grade or #2 exceed 50%. Each deliver unit shall be
manufactured in California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming, or
Alberta or British Columbia, Canada, and contain lumber produced from grade-stamped Alpine
fir, Englemann spruce, hem-fir, lodgepole pine, and/ or spruce pine fir".
Box 2.3: Specifications of some commodities underlying derivatives contracts
and to certify the quantity and quality of the underlying commodity. The advantage of this system
is that a warehouse receipt becomes a good collateral, not just for settlement of exchange trades
but also for other purposes too. In India, the warehousing system is not as efficient as it is in some
of the other developed markets. Central and state government controlled warehouses are the major
providers of agri-produce storage facilities. Apart from these, there are a few private warehousing
being maintained. However there is no clear regulatory oversight of warehousing services.
23
exchanges in the world. The CBOT was established in 1848 to bring farmers and merchants
together. Initially its main task was to standardise the quantities and qualities of the grains that
were traded. Within a few years the first futures-type contract was developed. It was know as the
to-arrive contract. Speculators soon became interested in the contract and found trading in the
contract to be an attractive alternative to trading the underlying grain itself. In 1919, another
exchange, the CME was established. Now futures exchanges exist all over the world. On these
exchanges, a wide range of commodities and financial assets form the underlying assets in
24
Commodity derivatives
various contracts. The commodities include pork bellies, live cattle, sugar, wool, lumber, copper,
aluminium, gold and tin. We look at commodity exchanges in some developing countries.
2.2.1 Africa
Africa's most active and important commodity exchange is the South African Futures Exchange
(SAFEX). It was informally launched in 1987. SAFEX only traded financial futures and gold futures
for a long time, but the creation of the Agricultural Markets Division (as of 2002, the Agricultural
Derivatives Division) led to the introduction of a range of agricultural futures contracts for
commodities, in which trade was liberalised, namely, white and yellow maize, bread milling wheat
and sunflower seeds.
2.2.2 Asia
China's first commodity exchange was established in 1990 and at least forty had appeared by 1993.
The main commodities traded were agricultural staples such as wheat, corn and in particularly
soybeans. In late 1994, more than half of China's exchanges were closed down or reverted to being
wholesale markets, while only 15 restructured exchanges received formal government approval. At
the beginning of 1999, the China Securities Regulatory Committee began a nationwide consolidation
process which resulted in three commodity exchanges emerging; the Dalian Commodity Exchange
(DCE), the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the Shanghai futures Exchange, formed in 1999
after the merger of three exchanges: Shanghai Metal, Commodity, Cereals & Oils Exchanges. The
Taiwan Futures Exchange was launched in 1998. Malaysia and Singapore have active commodity
futures exchanges. Malaysia hosts one futures and options exchange. Singapore is home to the
Singapore Exchange (SGX), which was formed in 1999 by the merger of two well-established
exchanges, the Stock Exchange of Singapore (SES) and Singapore International Monetary Exchange
(SIMEX).
25
amongst leading cotton mill owners and merchants over functioning of Bombay Cotton Trade
Association. The Futures trading in oilseeds started in 1900 with the establishment of the Gujarati
Vyapari Mandali, which carried on futures trading in groundnut, castor seed and cotton. Futures
trading in wheat was existent at several places in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. But the most notable
futures exchange for wheat was chamber of commerce at Hapur set up in 1913. Futures trading in
bullion began in Mumbai in 1920. Calcutta Hessian Exchange Ltd. was established in 1919 for
futures trading in rawjute and jute goods. But organised futures trading in raw jute began only in
1927 with the establishment of East Indian Jute Association Ltd. These two associations
amalgamated in 1945 to form the East India Jute & Hessian Ltd. to conduct organised trading in
both Raw Jute and Jute goods. Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act was enacted in 1952 and the
Forwards Markets Commission (FMC) was established in 1953 under the Ministry of Consumer
Affairs and Public Distribution. In due course, several other exchanges were created in the country
to trade in diverse commodities.
2.3.1
After the introduction of economic reforms since June 1991 and the consequent gradual trade and
industry liberalisation in both the domestic and external sectors, the Government of India
appointed in June 1993 a committee on Forward Markets under chairmanship of Prof. K.N.
Kabra. The committee was setup with the following objectives:
1. To assess
(a) The working of the commodity exchanges and their trading practices in India and to make
suitable recommendations with a view to making them compatible with those of other countries
(b) The role of the Forward Markets Commission and to make suitable recommendations with a
view to making it compatible with similar regulatory agencies in other countries so as to see
how effectively these agencies can cope up with the reality of the fast changing economic
scenario.
2. To review the role that forward trading has played in the Indian commodity markets during the last 10
years.
3. To examine the extent to which forward trading has special role to play in promoting exports.
4. To suggest amendments to the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, in the light of the
recommendations, particularly with a view to effective enforcement of the Act to check illegal
forward trading when such trading is prohibited under the Act.
5. To suggest measures to ensure that forward trading in the commodities in which it is allowed to be
operative remains constructive and helps in maintaining prices within reasonable limits.
6. To assess the role that forward trading can play in marketing/ distribution system in the commodities
in which forward trading is possible, particularly in commodities in which resumption of forward
trading is generally demanded.
26
Commodity derivatives
The committee submitted its report in September 1994. The recommendations of the
committee were as follows:
The Forward Markets Commission(FMC) and the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952, would
need to be strengthened.
Due to the inadequate infrastructural facilities such as space and telecommunication facilities the
commodities exchanges were not able to function effectively. Enlisting more members, ensuring
capital adequacy norms and encouraging computerisation would enable these exchanges to place
themselves on a better footing.
In-built devices in commodity exchanges such as the vigilance committee and the panels of surveyors
and arbitrators be strengthened further.
The FMC which regulates forward/ futures trading in the country, should continue to act a watch-dog
and continue to monitor the activities and operations of the commodity exchanges. Amendments to
the rules, regulations and bye-laws of the commodity exchanges should require the approval of the
FMC only.
In the context of globalisation, commodity markets in India could not function effectively in an
isolated manner. Therefore, some of the commodity exchanges, particularly the ones dealing in pepper
and castor seed, be upgraded to the level of international futures markets.
The majority of me committee recommended that futures trading be introduced in the following
commodities:
1. Basmatirice
2. Cotton and kapas
3. Raw jute and jute goods
4. Groundnut, rapeseed/mustard seed, cottonseed, sesame seed, sunflower seed, safflower seed,
copra and soybean, and oils and oilcakes of all of them.
5. Rice bran oil
6. Castor oil and its oilcake
7. Linseed
8. Silver
9. Onions
The liberalised policy being followed by the government of India and the gradual withdrawal
of the procurement and distribution channel necessitated setting in place a market mechanism to
perform the economic functions of price discovery and risk management.
The national agriculture policy announced in July 2000 and the announcements in the budget
speech for 2002-2003 were indicative of the governments resolve to put in place a mechanism of
futures trade/market. As a follow up, the government issued notifications on 1.4.2003 permitting
futures trading in the commodities, with the issue of these notifications futures trading is not
prohibited in any commodity. Options trading in commodity is, however presently prohibited.
27
Products
28
Commodity derivatives
Product traded
Gur
Sunflower oil
Cotton (Seed and oil)
Safflower (Seed, oil and oil cake)
Groundnut (Nut and oil)
Castor oil, Castorseed
Sesamum (Oil and oilcake)
Rice bran, rice bran oil and oilcake
Crude palm oil
The Rajkot Seeds oil & Bullion Merchants
Groundnut oil
Association, Ltd.
Castorseed
The Kanpur Commodity Exchange Ltd.
Rapeseed/ Mustardseed oil and cake
The Meerut Agro Commodities Exchange Co. Ltd. Gur
The Spices and Oilseeds Exchange Ltd.Sangli
Turmeric
Ahmedabad Commodities Exchange Ltd.
Cottonseed, Castorseed
Vijay Beopar Chamber Ltd., Muzaffarnagar
Gur
India Pepper & Spice Trade Association, Kochi
Pepper
Rajdhani Oils and Oilseeds Exchange Ltd., Delhi
Gur, Rapeseed/ Mustardseed
Sugar Grade-M
National Board of Trade, Indore
Rapeseed/ Mustard seed/ Oil/ Cake
Soybean/ Meal/ Oil, Crude Palm Oil
The Chamber of Commerce, Hapur
Gur, Rapeseed/ Mustardseed
The East India Cotton Association, Mumbai
Cotton
The Central India Commercial Exchange Ltd.,
Gur
The
East India Jute & Hessian Exchange Ltd.,
Hessian, Sacking
Gwaliar
Kolkata
First
Commodity Exchange of India Ltd., Kochi
Copra, Coconut oil & Copra cake
The Coffee Futures Exchange India Ltd., Bangalore Coffee
National Multi Commodity Exchange of India
Gur, RBD Pamohen
Limited, Ahmedabad
Crude Palm Oil, Copra
Rapeseed/ Mustardseed, Soy bean
Cotton (Seed, oil, oilcake)
Safflower (seed, oil, oilcake)
Groundnut (seed, oil, oilcake)
Sugar, Sacking, gram
Coconut (oil and oilcake)
Castor (oil and oilcake)
Sesamum (Seed,oil and oilcake)
Linseed (seed, oil and oilcake)
Rice Bran Oil, Pepper, Guarseed
Aluminium ingots, Nickel, tin
Vanaspati, Rubber, Copper, Zinc, lead
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
Soy Bean, Refined Soy Oil
Limited
Mustard Seed
Expeller Mustard Oil
RBD Palmolein Crude Palm Oil
Medium Staple Cotton
Long Staple Cotton
Gold, Silver
29
Solved Problems
Q: Which of the following feature differentiates a commodity futures contract from a financial
futures contract?
1. Exchange traded product
3. MTM settlement
2. the exchange
3. Undertaking
2. Warehouse receipt
4. Advance payment
3. The warehouse
4. The seller
30
Commodity derivatives
3. Khusro Committee
2. Kabra Committee
4. J R Varma Committee
Chapter 3
The NCDEX platform
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) is a technology driven commodity
exchange. It is a public limited company registered under the Companies Act, 1956 with the
Registrar of Companies, Maharashtra in Mumbai on April 23,2003. It has an independent Board
of Directors and professionals not having any vested interest in commodity markets. It has been
launched to provide a world-class commodity exchange platform for market participants to trade
in a wide spectrum of commodity derivatives driven by best global practices, professionalism and
transparency.
NCDEX is regulated by Forward Markets Commission in respect of futures trading in
commodities. Besides, NCDEX is subjected to various laws of the land like the Companies Act,
Stamp Act, Contracts Act, Forward Commission (Regulation) Act and various other legislations,
which impinge on its working. It is located in Mumbai and offers facilities to its members in about
91 cities throughout India at the moment.
NCDEX currently facilitates trading of ten commodities - gold, silver, soy bean, refined soy
bean oil, rapeseed-mustard seed, expeller rapeseed-mustard seed oil, RBD palmolein, crude palm
oil and cotton - medium and long staple varieties. At subsequent phases trading in more
commodities would be facilitated.
3.1
Structure of NCDEX
3.1.1 Promoters
NCDEX is promoted by a consortium of institutions. These include the ICICI Bank Limited
(ICICI Bank), Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), National Bank for Agriculture and
Rural Development (NABARD) and National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE). NCDEX
is the only commodity exchange in the country promoted by national level institutions. This
unique parentage enables it to offer a variety of benefits which are currently in short supply
in the commodity markets. The four institutional promoters of NCDEX are prominent players
in their respective fields and bring with them institution building experience, trust, nationwide
reach, technology and risk management skills.
3.1.2 Governance
NCDEX is run by an independent Board of Directors. Promoters do not participate in the day to day
activities of the exchange. The directors are appointed in accordance with the provisions of the
Articles of Association of the company. The board is responsible for managing and regulating all the
operations of the exchange and commodities transactions. It formulates the rules and regulations
related to the operations of the exchange. Board appoints an executive committee and other
committees for the purpose of managing activities of the exchange.
The executive committee consists of Managing Director of the exchange who would be acting as
the Chief Executive of the exchange, and also other members appointed by the board.
Apart from the executive committee the board has constitute committee like Membership
committee, Audit Committee, Risk Committee, Nomination Committee, Compensation Committee
and Business Strategy Committee, which, help the Board in policy formulation.
3.2.1
NCDEX invites applications for Trading cum Clearing Members (TCMs) from persons who fulfill
the specified eligibility criteria for trading in commodities. The TCM membership entitles the
members to trade and clear, both for themselves and/ or on behalf of their clients. Applicants
accepted for admission as TCM are required to pay the required fees/ deposits and also maintain net
worth as given in Table 3.1.
33
15.00
15.00
0.50
0.50
50.00
25.00
25.00
1.00
1.00
5000.00
All Members have to comply with the security deposit requirement before the activation of
their trading terminal. Members can opt to meet the security deposit requirement by way of the
following:
Cash: This can be deposited by issuing a cheque/ demand draft payable at Mumbai in favour of
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited.
34
Government of India securities: National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited (NSCCL) is the
approved custodian for acceptance of Government of India securities. The securities are valued on a
daily basis and a haircut of 25% is levied.
Members are required to maintain minimum level of security deposit i.e. Rs.15 Lakh in case of
TCM and Rs. 25 Lakh in case of PCM at any point of time. If the security deposit falls below the
minimum required level, NCDEX may initiate suitable action including withdrawal of trading
facilities as given below:
If the security deposit shortage is equal to or greater than Rs. 5 Lakh, the trading facility would be
withdrawn with immediate effect.
If the security deposit shortage is less than Rs.5 Lakh the member would be given one calendar weeks'
time to replenish the shortages and if the same is not done within the specified time the trading facility
would be withdrawn.
Members who wish to increase their limit can do so by bringing in additional capital in the
form of cash, bank guarantee, fixed deposit receipts or Government of India securities.
3.4.1
Trading
The trading system on the NCDEX, provides a fully automated screen-based trading for futures on
commodities on a nationwide basis as well as an online monitoring and surveillance mechanism.
It supports an order driven market and provides complete transparency of trading operations. The
trade timings of the NCDEX are 10.00 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. After hours trading has also been
proposed for implementation at a later stage.
The NCDEX system supports an order driven market, where orders match automatically.
Order matching is essentially on the basis of commodity, its price, time and quantity. All quantity
fields are in units and price in rupees. The exchange specifies the unit of trading and the delivery
unit for futures contracts on various commodities . The exchange notifies the regular lot size and
tick size for each of the contracts traded from time to time. When any order enters the trading
system, it is an active order. It tries to find a match on the other side of the book. If it finds a
match, a trade is generated. If it does not find a match, the order becomes passive and gets
3.4.2 Clearing
National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited (NSCCL) undertakes clearing of trades executed
on the NCDEX. The settlement guarantee fund is maintained and managed by NCDEX. Only
clearing members including professional clearing members (PCMs) only are entitled to clear and
settle contracts through the clearing house. At NCDEX, after the trading hours on the expiry date,
based on the available information, the matching for deliveries takes place firstly, on the basis of
locations and then randomly, keeping in view the factors such as available capacity of the vault/
warehouse, commodities already deposited and dematerialized and offered for delivery etc.
Matching done by this process is binding on the clearing members. After completion of the
matching process, clearing members are informed of the deliverable/ receivable positions and the
unmatched positions. Unmatched positions have to be settled in cash. The cash settlement is only
for the incremental gain/ loss as determined on the basis of final settlement price.
3.4.3 Settlement
Futures contracts have two types of settlements, the MTM settlement which happens on a
continuous basis at the end of each day, and the final settlement which happens on the last trading
day of the futures contract. On the NCDEX, daily MTM settlement and final MTM settlement in
respect of admitted deals in futures contracts are cash settled by debiting/ crediting the clearing
accounts of CMs with the respective clearing bank. All positions of a CM, either brought forward,
created during the day or closed out during the day, are market to market at the daily settlement
price or the final settlement price at the close of trading hours on a day.
On the date of expiry, the final settlement price is the spot price on the expiry day. The
responsibility of settlement is on a trading cum clearing member for all trades done on his own
account and his client's trades. A professional clearing member is responsible for settling all the
participants trades which he has confirmed to the exchange. On the expiry date of a futures
contract, members submit delivery information through delivery request window on the trader
workstations provided by NCDEX for all open positions for a commodity for all constituents
individually. NCDEX on receipt of such information, matches the information and arrives at a
delivery position for a member for a commodity.
The seller intending to make delivery takes the commodities to the designated warehouse.
These commodities have to be assayed by the exchange specified assayer. The commodities have
to meet the contract specifications with allowed variances. If the commodities meet the
Solved Problems
Q: Which of the following futures do not trade on the NCDEX?
1. Cotton futures
3. Silver futures
2. Gold futures
4. Energy futures
2. SEBI
3. Rs.500Lakh
2. Rs.50Lakh
4. Rs.5000Lakh
Chapter 4
Commodities traded on the NCDEX
platform
In December 2003, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) launched
futures trading in nine major commodities. To begin with contracts in gold, silver, cotton,
soyabean, soya oil, rape/ mustard seed, rapeseed oil, crude palm oil and RBD palmolein are being
offered.
We have a brief look at the various commodities that trade on the NCDEX and look at some
commodity specific issues. The commodity markets can be classified as markets trading the
following types of commodities.
1. Agricultural products
2. Precious metal
3. Other metals
4. Energy
Of these, the NCDEX has commenced trading in futures on agricultural products and precious
metals. For derivatives with a commodity as the underlying, the exchange must specify the exact
nature of the agreement between two parties who trade in the contract. In particular, it must
specify the underlying asset, the contract size stating exactly how much of the asset will be
delivered under one contract, where and when the delivery will be made. In this chapter we look at
the various underlying assets for the futures contracts traded on the NCDEX. Trading, clearing
and settlement details will be discussed later.
4.1
Agricultural commodities
The NCDEX offers futures trading in the following agricultural commodities - Refined soy oil,
mustard seed, expeller mustard oil, RBD palmolein, crude palm oil, medium staple cotton and
long staple cotton. Of these we study cotton in detail and have a quick look at the others.
38
4.1.1
Cotton
Cotton accounts for 75% of the fibre consumption in spinning mills in India and 58% of the total fibre
consumption of its textile industry (by volume). At the average price of Rs.45/ kg, over 17 million bales
(average annual consumption, 1 bale = 170 kg) of raw cotton trade in the country. The market size of
raw cotton in India is over Rs.130 billion. The average monthly fluctuation in prices of cotton traded
across India has been at around 4.5% during the last three years. The maximum fluctuation has been as
high as 11%. Historically, cotton prices in India have been fluctuating in the range of 3-6% on a
monthly basis.
Cotton is among the most important non-food crops. It occupies a significant position, both from
agricultural and manufacturing sectors' points of view. It is the major source of a basic human need clothing, apart from other fibre sources like jute, silk and synthetic. Today, cotton occupies a significant
position in the Indian economy on all fronts as a commodity that forms a means of livelihood to over
millions of cotton cultivating farmers at the primary agricultural sector. It is also a source of direct
employment to over 35 million people in the secondary manufacturing textile industry that contributes
to 14% of the country's industrial production, 27-30% of the country's export earnings and 4% of its
GDP.
39
40
Futures prices of cotton at the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) serve as the reference price for
cotton traded in the international market. World cotton prices fell sharply during most part of 2001,
NyBOT witnessing a sharp downfall in prices from 61.78 US Cents/ lb (as on Jan 2, 2001) to the low
of 28.20 US Cents/ lb (as on Oct 26, 2001), a sharp fall by 54.35%. Towards mid-2002, prices
recovered to 53 cents, and toward end of 2003 were currently ruling at 58.85 cents.
Cotton prices in India are therefore influenced by various demand-supply factors operating within
the country, international raw cotton prices, demand for finished readymade garments from abroad,
prices of synthetic fibre, etc. Jute, silk, wool and khadi - the other fibre sources, are less likely to have
any major impact on cotton prices in India.
41
(in specific, and edible oils in general), India, stands at 25%. India, China, Pakistan and the
European Union are the major importers of palm oil. India is the largest importer of CPO with a
share of over 15% of the total quantity traded in the international market. The total imports of
India, China, Pakistan and European Union amount to approximately 56% of the total global
exports of palm oil annually.
Production of palm oil stands at 24-25 million tons (over 22% of the global vegetable oil). Palm
oil dominates the global vegetable oil export trade. The two producing countries viz. Malaysia and
Indonesia dominate the global trade in CPO. Their share in the global exports of CPO is to the tune
of 90%. The major trading centres of CPO in the world are Malaysia and Indonesia in Asia and
Rotterdam in Europe. The Kuala Lumpur based Malaysia Derivatives Exchange Bhd. (MDEX)
could be considered as the price maker of palm oil traded world over. This exchange trades only
CPO among several derivatives of palm. The domestic production of palm oil forms almost a
negligible part of the total edible oil consumption in the country.
Rising consumption of palm oil in India, which could be mainly attributed to its price
competitiveness among several of its competing oils is being met through increasing imports. Palm
oil supports many other industries in India like refining, vanaspati and other industrial sectors apart
from human consumption as RBD palmolein. The major importing and trading centres for palm in
India are Chennai, Kakinada, Mumbai and Kandla. The other centers like Mundra, Kolkata,
Mangalore and Karwar also play important role, but next to the four major trading centers. Palm oil
trade in India is influenced by the supply-demand scene in the domestic market including the
factors influencing various oilseed production in the country, prices of various domestically
produced and imported oils, production and trade policies of the Government, mainly the exportimport policy, overall health of the economy that has a bearing on the purchasing power of ultimate
consumers, etc. The entire industry of CPO in India is dominated by importers, large refiners,
corporate involved in wholesale and retail trade through value-addition and retail-regional level
players along with a few national level players. The industry is dominated by over 200 importing
companies, who are mostly refiners too. Domestic oilseed and edible oil industry is organised in the
form of oilseed crushers, processors, solvent extractors, technologists, commodity-specific
producers and traders.
42
over-all status of the edible oil industry during the immediate past; current and a short-term forecast of
the future status of the industry in various producing and consuming countries. Production and trade
related policies of various exporting and importing nations of palm oil at the international scene have a
major bearing on the prices of palm oil.
43
while the consumption of palm in India grew from 0.254 million tons in 1990 to nearly 3 million
tons during 2001-02, growing at the rate of 25% compounded annually during the past decade.
Rising consumption of palm oil in India could be mainly attributed to the price sensitive nature of
the Indian edible oil consumers.
44
entering the market from October beginning onwards. Crushing for oil and meal starts from
October, peaking during the subsequent two-three months.
45
exposure in the international edible trade scene (9-10 million tons), concentration of production
base in limited countries as against its widespread consumption base, its close link with several of
its substitutes and its base raw material soybean in addition to its co-derivative (soy meal), the
nature of the existing supply and value chain, etc. throw tremendous opportunity for trade in this
commodity. The opportunity is further enhanced by the expected rise in consumption base and the
consequent expected rise in imports of vegetable oils in the years to come. In addition is the
stiffening competition among substitutable oils under the WTO regime.
46
rate of 6% and 1.6% respectively. USA imports 50% of rapeseed oil traded at the international
market. Hong Kong and Russia are the major importers, whose share has been declining over the
years.
At an annual production level of 13-14 million tons, rapeseed oil accounts for about 12% of
the total world's edible oil production. Globally, rapeseed oil production has witnessed a moderate
compounded annual growth rate (over the last decade) of 4.65%. While the production growth
rates in major producing countries viz. Canada and India have posted negative values of 1.2% and
7.8% respectively during the past decade, China, France and Germany's rapeseed oil production
during the period has been growing at 10%, 6.8% and 4.7% respectively. China contributes more
than one thirds of world rapeseed oil production while that of India has gone down from 18.2% in
1997 to 11.3% in 2001.
Domestic rapeseed/ mustard is one of the major sources of edible oil and meal to India. It
forms over one-third of the country's annual edible oil production, which is substantial. The
imports of mustard oil have drastically come down in the country from around 172000 tons in
1998-99 to a mere 10000 tons (of crude rapeseed oil) in 2001-02, owing to stiff price competition
from palm and soy oils. There have been no imports of refined rapeseed oil for the last few years
due to the differential duty structure. Unlike other oils, consumption of rapeseed oil is
concentrated in northern, north-eastern and western part of the country.
Rapeseed oil has several industrial applications too viz. as lubricant, its erucic acid derivatives
are used in plastic industry, and it could also be transformed into a liquid biofuel. Rajasthan and
Uttar Pradesh are the major rapeseed producing states in the country. Together, they produce
about 50% of the produce. The production from Rajasthan is highly monsoon dependent. The
other significant producers are Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat, West Bengal, Assam, Bihar,
Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. Since the oil is known and consumed preferably for its unique
pungency, it is mostly crushed in the local kacchi and pakki ghanis (oil mills) spread across the
producing and trading centres.
4.1.6 Soybean
The market size of the popularly known miracle bean in India is over Rs.5000 crore. With an
annual production of 5.0-5.4 million tons, soybean constitutes nearly 25% of the country's total
oilseed production. The average monthly fluctuation in prices of soybean traded at one of the
47
active soybean spot market at Indore (Madhya Pradesh) has been at 10.07% during the past two
years, the maximum monthly fluctuation being as high as 24-30% during the period. Historically,
soybean prices in the major spot markets across the country have been fluctuating in the range of
5-9%. Soybean is the single largest oilseed produced in the world. The commodity has been
commercially exploited for its utility as edible oil and animal feed. On crushing mature beans,
around 18% oil could be obtained; the rest being the oil cake/ meal, which forms the prime source
of protein in animal feeds.
4.1.7 Rapeseed
Rapeseed/ Mustard is one of the major sources of oil and meal to India. It supplies over 1.5
million tons of oil (15-18% of India's annual edible oil requirement) and 3-3.2 million tons of
48
oil meal, the major protein source in animal feeds. The average monthly fluctuation in prices of
rapeseed traded at one of the active rapeseed spot market at Jaipur (Rajasthan) has been at 9.8%
during the past two years (July 2001 to July 2003), the maximum monthly fluctuation being as
high as 23.4% during the period. Rapeseed/ Mustard/ Canola is a traditionally important oilseed.
China, Canada and India are the major producers of this commodity. The other major producers
are Germany, France, Australia, Pakistan and Poland. The commodity has been commercially
exploited in the form of seeds, oil (seed to oil recovery is 39-40%) and meal. The hybrid form of
rapeseed, known as canola, is more popular internationally.
49
in the production. The global trade of rapeseed oil has come down from 1.9 million tons in 1997
to 1.2 million tons in 2001. 68% of the global rapeseed oil export trade is dominated by Canada.
Germany follows Canada in the export of domestically produced rapeseed oil. Its exports too have
fallen by 30% from 0.3 million tons in 1997 to 0.07 million tons in 2001. India and China
consume most of the rapeseed oil that is produced domestically.
Rapeseed/ mustard is one of the major sources of edible oil and meal to India. Around 4.5-4.8
million tons of rapeseed available for produced annually in the country supplies over 1.5 million
tons of oil and 3-3.2 million tons of meal on crushing. It is the largest produced edible oil in India
(groundnut oil production also stands on par with it during good years). It forms over one-third of
the country's annual edible oil production, which is substantial. The imports of mustard oil have
drastically come down in the country from around 172000 tons in 1998-99 to a mere 10000 tons
(of crude rapeseed oil) in 2001-02, owing to stiff price competition from palm and soy oils. There
have been no imports of refined rapeseed oil for the last few years due to the differential duty
structure. Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are the major rapeseed producing States in the country.
Together, they produce about 50% of the produce. The production from Rajasthan is highly
monsoon dependent. The other significant producers are Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat, West
Bengal, Assam, Bihar, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. Since the oil is known and consumed
preferably for its unique pungency, it is mostly crushed in the local kacchi and pakki ghanis (oil
mills) spread across the producing and trading centres.
50
Gold futures trading debuted at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (Comex) in Canada in November
1972. Delivery was also available in gold certificates issued by Bank of Nova Scotia and the Canadian
Imperial Bank of Commerce. The gold contracts became so popular that by 1974 there was as many as
10,00,000 contracts floating in the market. The futures trading in gold started in other countries too. This
included the following:
The London gold futures exchange started operations in the early 1980s.
The Sydney futures exchange in Australia began functioning with a contract in 1978. This exchange
had a relationship with the Comex where participants could take open positions in one exchange and
liquidate them in the other.
The Singapore International Monetary Exchange (Simex) was set up in 1983 by way of an alliance
between the Gold Exchange of Singapore and the International Monetary Market (TMM) of
Chicago.
The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), which launched a contract in 1982, was one of the few
commodity exchanges to successfully launch gold futures. Trading volume on the Tocom peaked
with seven million contracts.
On December 31, 1974, the Commodity Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade, the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange and the Mid-America Commodity Exchange introduced gold futures
contracts.
The Chinese exchange, Shanghai Gold Exchange was officially opened on 30 October 2002.
Mumbai's first multi-commodity exchange, the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange,
NCDEX launched in 2003 by a consortium of ICICI Bank Limited, Life Insurance Corporation,
National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development and National Stock Exchange of India
Limited, introduces gold futures contracts.
Gold has a very active derivative market compared with other commodities. Gold accounts for 45 per cent
of the worlds commercial banks commodity derivatives portfolio.
4.2.1
Gold
For centuries, gold has meant wealth, prestige, and power, and its rarity and natural beauty have
made it precious to men and women alike. Owning gold has long been a safeguard against disaster.
Many times when paper money has failed, men have turned to gold as the one true source of
monetary wealth. Today is no different. While there have been fluctuations in every market and
decided downturns in some, the expectation is that gold will hold its own. There is a limited
amount of gold in the world, so investing in gold is still a good way to plan for the future. Gold is
homogeneous, indestructible and fungible. These attributes set gold apart from other commodities
and financial assets and tend to make its returns insensitive to business cycle fluctuations. Gold is
still bought (and sold) by different people for a wide variety of reasons - as a use in jewellery, for
industrial applications, as an investment and so on.
51
972
67
87
44
6
3
87
1450
Share, 1999
437
309
154
334
154
154
51
463
17
12
6
13
6
6
2
18
100
2571
100
Production
Traditionally South Africa has been the largest producers of gold in the world accounting for
almost 80% of all non-communist output in 1970. Although it retained its position as the single
largest gold producing country, its share had fallen to around 17% by 1999 because of high costs
of mining and reduced resources. Table 4.1 gives the country-wise share in gold production. In
contrast other countries like US, Australia, Canada and China have increased their output
exponentially with output from developing countries like Peru and other Latin American countries
also increasing impressively.
Mining and production of gold in India is negligible, now placed around 2 tonnes (mainly
from the Kolar gold mines in Karnataka) as against a total world production of about 2,272 tonnes
in 1995.
52
In markets with poorly developed financial systems, inaccessible or insecure banks, or where
trust in the government is low, gold is attractive as a store of value. If gold is held primarily as an
investment asset, it does not need to be held in physical form. The investor could hold gold-linked
paper assets or could lend out the physical gold on the market attaining a higher return in addition
to savings on the storage costs. Japan has the highest investment demand for gold followed closely
by India. These two countries together account for over 50% of total world demand of gold for
retail investment. Investment demand can be split broadly into two, private and public sector
holdings.
There are several ways in which investors can invest in gold either directly or through a
variety of investment products, each of which lends it to specific investor preferences:
Coins and small bars
Gold accounts: allocated and unallocated
Gold certificates and pool accounts
Gold Accumulation Plan
Gold backed bonds and structured notes
Gold futures and options
Gold-oriented funds
Demand
The Consumer demand for gold is more than 3400 tonnes per year making it whopping $40 billion
worth. More than 80% of the gold consumed is in the form of jewellery, which is generally
predominated by women. The Indian demand to the tune of 800 tonnes per year is making it the
largest market for gold followed by USA, Middle East and China. About 80% of the Physical gold
is consumed in the form of jewellery while bars and coins occupy not higher than 10% of the gold
consumed. If we include jewellery ownership, then India is the largest repository of gold in terms
of total gold within the national boundaries.
Regarding pattern of demand, there are no authentic estimates, the available evidence shows
that about 80% is for jewellery fabrication for domestic demand, and 15% is for investor-demand
(which is relatively elastic to gold-prices, real estate prices, financial markets, tax-policies, etc.).
Barely 5% is for industrial uses. The demand for gold jewellery is rooted in societal preference for
a variety of reasons - religious, ritualistic, a preferred form of wealth for women, and as a hedge
against inflation. It will be difficult to prioritise them but it may be reasonable to conclude that it
is a combined effect, and to treat any major part as exclusively a store of value or hedging
instrument would be unrealistic. It would not be realistic to assume that it is only the affluent that
creates demand for gold. There is reason to believe that a part of investment demand for gold
assets is out of black money.
Rural India continues to absorb more than 70% of the gold consumed in India and it has its
own role to fuel the barter economy of the agriculture community. The yellow metal used to
53
play an important role in marriage and religious festivals in India. In the Hindu, Jain and Sikh
community, where women did not inherit landed property whereas gold and silver jewellery was,
and still is, a major component of the gifts given to a woman at the time of marriage. The
changeover hands of gold at the time of marriage are from few grams to kgs. The gold also
occupies a significant position in the temple system where gold is used to prepare idol and
devotees offer gold in the temple. These temples are run in trust and gold with the trust rarely
comes into re-circulation. The existing social and cultural system continues to cause net gold
buyer market and the government policies have to take note of the root cause of gold demand,
which lies in the social and cultural system of India. The annual consumption of gold, which was
estimated at 65 tonnes in 1982, has increased to more than 700 tonnes in late 90s. Although it is
likely that, with prosperity and enlightenment, there may be deceleration in demand, particularly
in urban areas, it would be made good by growing demand on account of prosperity in rural areas.
In the near future, therefore, the annual demand will continue to be over 600 tonnes per year.
Supply
Indian gold holding, which are predominantly private, is estimated to be in the range of 1000013000 tonnes. One fourth of world gold production is consumed in India and more than 60% of
Indian consumption is met through imports. The domestic production of the gold is very limited
which is around 9 tonnes in 2002 resulting more dependence on imported gold. The availability of
recycled gold is price sensitive and as such the dominance of the gold supply through import is in
existence. The fabricated old gold scraps is price elastic and was estimated to be near 450 tonnes
in 2002. It rose almost more than 40% compared to the previous year because of rise in gold price
by more than 15%.
The demand-supply for gold in India can be summed up thus:
Demand for gold has an autonomous character. Supply follows demand.
Demand exhibits income elasticity, particularly in the rural and semi-urban areas.
Price differential creates import demand, particularly illegal import prior to the commencement of
liberalisation in 1990.
54
other hand in November, December, January and February prices tend to decline and jewellers
tend to have holiday inventory to unwind.
4.2.2 Silver
The dictionary describes it as a white metallic element, sonorous, ductile, very malleable and
capable of high degree of polish. It also has the highest thermal and electrical conductivity of any
substance. Silver is somewhat harder than gold and is second only to gold in malleability and
ductility. Silver remains one of the most prominent candidates in the metals complex as far as
futures' trading is concerned. Thanks to its unique volatility, silver has remained a hot favourite
speculative vehicle for the small time traders. Though futures trading was banned in India since
late sixties, parallel futures markets are still very active in Delhi and Indore. Speculative interest
in the white metal is so intense that it is believed that combined volume of Indian punters
represent almost 40 percent of volume traded at New York Commodity Exchange. Delhi,
Rajasthan, MP and UP are the active pockets for the silver futures. Until recently, Rajkot and
Mathura were conducting futures but now players have diverted toward comex trade.
Most of the world's silver is mined in the US, Australia, Mexico, Peru, and Canada. Cash
markets remain highly unorganised in the silver and impurity and excessive speculation remain
key issue for the trade. Taking cue from gold, government of India is planning to introduce
hallmarking in silver which is likely to address quality and credibility of Indian silverware and
jeweller industry. The unique properties of silver restrict its substitution in most applications.
Production
Silver ore is most often found in combination with other elements, and silver has been mined and
treasured longer than any of the other precious metals. Mexico is the worlds leading producer of
silver, followed by Peru, Canada, the United States, and Australia. The main consumer countries
for silver are the United States, which is the worlds largest consumer of silver, followed by
Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and India. The main factors
affecting these countries demand for silver are macro economic factors such as GDP growth,
industrial production, income levels, and a whole host of other financial macro economic
indicators.
Demand
Demand for silver is built on three main pillars; industrial and decorative uses, photography and
jewelry & silverware. Together, these three categories represent more than 95 percent of annual
silver consumption. In recent years, the main world demand for silver is no longer monetary, but
industrial. With the growing use of silver in photography and electronics, industrial demand for
silver accounts for roughly 85% of the total demand for silver. Jewelry and silverware is the
second largest component, with more demand from the flatware industry than from the jewelry
industry in recent years. India, the largest consumer of silver, is gearing up to start hallmarking of
the white precious metal by April. India annually consumes around 4,000 tonnes of silver,
55
Major markets like the London market (London Bullion Market Association), which started
trading in the 17th century provide a vehicle for trade in silver on a spot basis, or on a forward
basis. The London market has a fix which offers the chance to buy or sell silver at a single
price. The fix begins at 12:15 p.m. and is a balancing exercise; the price is fixed at the point at
which all the members of the fixing can balance their own, plus clients, buying and selling
orders.
Trading in silver futures resumed at the Comex in New York in 1963, after a gap of 30 years.
The London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade introduced futures trading in
silver in 1968 and 1969, respectively. In the United States, the silver futures market functions
under the surveillance of an official body, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC). Although London remains the true center of the physical silver trade for most of the
world, the most significant paper contracts trading market for silver in the United States is the
COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Spot prices for silver are determined
by levels prevailing at the COMEX. Although there is no American equivalent to the London
fix, Handy & Harman, a precious metals company, publishes a price for 99.9% pure silver at
noon each working day.
Box 4.5: Historical background of silver markets
with the rural areas accounting for the bulk of the sales. India's demand for silver increased by 177
per cent over the past 10 years as compared to 517 tonnes in 1991. According to GFMS, India has
emerged as the third largest industrial user of silver in the world after the US and Japan.
Supply
The supply of silver is based on two facts, mine production and recycled silver scraps. Mine
production is surprisingly the largest component of silver supply. It normally accounts for a little
less than 2/3 rd of the total (last year was slightly higher at 68%). Fifteen countries produce
roughly 94 percent of the worlds silver from mines. The most notable producers are Mexico, Peru,
the United States, Canada and Australia. Mexico, the largest producer of silver from mines. Peru
is the worlds second largest producer of silver. Silver is often mined as a byproduct of other base
metal operations, which accounts for roughly four-fifths of the mined silver supply produced
annually. Known reserves, or actual mine capacity, is evenly split along the lines of production.
The mine production is not the sole source - others being scrap, disinvestments, government sales
and producers hedging. Scrap is the silver that returns to the market when recovered from existing
manufactured goods or waste. Old scrap normally makes up around a fifth of supply. Scrap supply
increased marginally last year up by 1.2%. The other major source of silver is from refining, or
scrap recycling. Because silver is used in the photography industry, as well as by the chemical
industry, the silver used in solvents and the like can be removed from the waste and recycled. The
United States recycles the most silver in the world, accounting for roughly 43.6 million ounces.
Japan is the second largest producer of silver from scrap and recycling, accounting for roughly
27.8 million troy ounces in 1997. In the United States and Japan, three-quarters of all the recycled
silver comes from the photographic scrap, mainly in the form of spent fixer solutions and old
X-ray films.
56
Solved Problems
Q: Which of the following commodities do not trade on the NCDEX?
1. Gold
3. Silver
2. Rapeseed
4. Energy
Q: Which of the following agricultural commodities do not trade on the NCDEX at the moment?
1. Wheat
3. Soybean
2. Rapeseed
4. Soy oil
3. Silk
2. Cotton
57
3. NYBOT
2. CBOT
4. SGX
3. Stem
4. Leaves
3. CPO
2. Rapeseed
4. Coconut kernel
3. Prices of CPO
3. CPO
2. Soybean
4. Sunflower seeds
58
3. Indore
2. Ahmedabad
4. Delhi
3. Indore
2. Ahmedabad
4. Delhi