Eight Key Levers For Effective Large-Capex-Project Management
Eight Key Levers For Effective Large-Capex-Project Management
Eight Key Levers For Effective Large-Capex-Project Management
Large-Capex-Project Management
Introducing the BCG LPM Octagon
Rafael Rilo, Philipp Gerbert, Alexander Koch, Jean Le Corre, Micaela Martelli,
and Daniel Jimnez
October 2012
AT A GLANCE
Executing large, capital-intensive projects such as mines, power plants, and oil and
natural-gas fields has become increasingly difficult in recent years. As a result,
these projects require greater investment and entail greater financial and operational risks, not only for the developers that own them but also for the contractors
tasked with building them.
An Increasingly Challenging World for Large-Project Management
Changes in demographics and the increased industrialization of large emerging
markets have increased the demand for raw materials and energy, a trend that
will only intensify in the coming years. Projects in these sectors have become
larger, more complex, and more expensive. As a result, typical construction
issuessuch as delays, cost overruns, and quality problemsnow have far
greater consequences.
Developing an Effective Approach to Project Execution
In this environment, the ability to more effectively manage the development of
large-capex projects can have clear competitive advantages. BCG has identified
eight key levers that project owners and contractors can use to ensure that these
projects are developed on time, on budget, and within required quality parameters.
Large-Capex-Project Management
Increased investment
in large-capex
projects in the
coming years will
require greater
coordination among
a larger number of
market participants.
Exhibit 1 | Investments in Large Projects Are Expected to Swell in the Long Term
Annual investment required over the next decade, selected sectors
$billions
1,500
80
32
1,146
Shipbuilding
Other1
Total
125
1,000
251
203
500
455
0
Oil and gas,
exploration
and production
Oil
Gas
Aerospace
Coal
Power
generation
Mining
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Sources: European Central Bank; International Energy Agency; Goldman Sachs Group, 330 Projects to Change the World, April 2011; Oil and Gas
Journal; Red Elctrica de Espaa; Boeing, Current Market Outlook 20112030, March 2012; Engineering and Mining Journal, Annual Survey of Global
Mining Investment; Raw Materials Group; BCG experience and analysis.
Note: Exhibit assumes an exchange rate of $1.33 to 1.00 (2010 average).
1
Other includes liquefaction and regasification, refining, and ethylene.
basic commodities like oil, gas, minerals, and power will continue to increase. Demand for aluminum, for example, is expected to grow more than 10 percent each
year over the next five years, and demand for natural gas is estimated to increase at
2.4 percent per year through 2020. Crude-oil demand is projected to rise from
approximately 80 million barrels per day to 85 million. More than half of the
crude-oil and gas capacity projected for 2030 has yet to be discovered, let alone
developed, which will require an annual investment of $455 billion over the next
25 years to ensure supply.
Such expansion may seem outsized, but it is in line with the growth of these
sectors over the past decade, during which the slowdown of the 2008 to 2009
financial crisis was merely a short-term disruption. Capital expenditure in the
global mining sector grew 40 percent per year from 2003 to 2008, dropped almost
8 percent in 2009, and quickly bounced back to previous investment levels a year
later. Investments in refining have grown 5 percent per year since 2003, reaching
$34 billion in 2010. All these growth rates are in excess of localand global
GDP expansion.
Worldwide, these factors have resulted in major capex projects becoming larger and
more complex. (See Exhibit 2.) The average costs of investment in mining projects
more than tripled from 2005 to 2010. Greater project size significantly increases
on-site management challengeslarger numbers of players participate, structures
are more sophisticated, and engineering sites are more spread out. The incorpora-
Large-Capex-Project Management
1,000
15,000
x3
800
10,100
10,100
10,699
11,297
10,000
600
513
400
200
527
542
331
2,253 166
3,000
5,000
190
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
20091
2010
Sources: Engineering and Mining Journal, Annual Survey of Global Mining Investment; European Central Bank.
1
Because information for 2009 is lacking, 2009 costs were calculated as the average of 2008 and 2010.
Revenues (%)
150
100
126
80
105
2
10
23
100
+29%
60
78
40
50
10
12
13
24
18
32
China
18
North America
31
Europe
25
66
15
11
30
20
39
0
2001
1999
2000
2003
2002
2005
2004
2009
2007
2006
2007
2010
2008
Large-Capex-Project Management
developers are not always able to exploit this downward price pressure from new
players, as they often dont have a clear picture of the new entrants capabilities
and the quality of their products.
Many companies have responded to these challenges by implementing measures
such as quality control programs, more frequent status reports, increased pressure
on suppliers, and detailed project-deviation assessments. They also try to transfer a
larger part of the project risk to contractors through restrictive contract conditions.
However, these measures often fail to deliver their expected benefits. In some cases,
they are not systematically enforced. In others, companies take significant action
only after a project has experienced serious delays or costs have so far exceeded the
initial budget that the companys financial condition is affected. In many cases, the
company is simply unaware that there is an underlying need to implement systemic
changes.
In this new and difficult environment, effective large-capex-project management is
a crucial capability. The eight levers of the BCG LPM Octagon, which are described
in detail below, can greatly improve the way that project owners and EPC/EPCM
contractors manage their projects. (See Exhibit 4.) Collectively, they can help
companies improve overall performance and develop their large-capex projects at
lower cost while meeting stringent quality requirements and complying with tighter
schedules.
Project
management
oce
Expenditure
optimization
Excellence in
construction
Access to
scarce resources
and local
content
Design
to value
The BCG
LPM Octagon
Contracting
optimization
Rigorous risk
management
Procurement
excellence
5
Source: BCG analysis.
Scale Effects. Optimize project size to capture the impact of scaling components
and projects. The reductions in investment requirements can be significant: one
power-generation company identified capital reductions of approximately
35 percent by optimizing scale in one of its projects.
Exhibit 5 | Programs to Minimize Capital Expenditure Have Led to Savings in Offshore Oil-Field
Developments
Wells and subsea systems
make up 74 percent of total
capex
Subsea systems
18%
Wells
56%
11%
10%
11%
23%
18%
Subsea systems
12%
Wells
No experience
eects
Basic experience
eects
Accelerated experience
eects
Large-Capex-Project Management
Supply Chain Optimization. Adapt the supply chain (for example, in make-or-buy
decisions and choice of supplier location) to more effectively meet the companys needs.
2. Design to Value
The second lever applies primarily to EPC/EPCM contractors. In the current context
of increasing complexity and competition, contractors and equipment providers
must ensure that their offers are aligned with actual client needs and are available
at the lowest possible price. It is therefore critical to thoroughly understand the
clients value requirements. For example, some clients are focused primarily on the
initial investment, while others may consider long-term costs (factoring in both
initial construction and lifespan maintenance). Still others may seek reliability and
plant availability over cost considerations. In all three cases, the contractor must
understand the developers value targets and propose a technical design that hits
those targets. A design-to-value approach can reduce costs between 10 and 15 percent for existing products; in new equipment, up to 50 percent of costs can be
avoided before they are even incurred.
There is a second component of the design-to-value principle: contractors must
evaluate their own internal operations to ensure that they are as cost efficient as
possible. This is increasingly important for incumbent players, which are facing
increased price competition from operators in low-cost countries. In the U.K., for
example, EPC contractor prices for most power-generation technologies are projected to fall significantly through 2020, as Western operators are forced to reduce costs
to match the offerings from new global challengers. This cost gap can be significantup to 25 percent in the unit costs of coal power plants in 2010.
At the same time, these new EPC challengers must be willing to expand out of their
home base in order to better understand customer requirements and translate
them into technical specifications. In particular, they need to face the perception
gap and adapt their offer to meet stringent quality requirements without losing
their cost advantage.
For all competitors in the marketincumbents and global challengers alikefour
principles can help in pulling the design-to-value lever:
Value-Based Offer. Understand clients key purchasing criteria and design projects
to meet their needs.
Contractors and
equipment providers
must ensure that
their offers are
aligned with actual
client needs and are
available at the
lowest possible price.
Strategy Level. Design strategic positioning for all capital expenditures aligned
with the companys financial objectives and capabilities. Draw clear guidelines
that define acceptable levels of exposure to risk, and define portfolio policies
aligned with this strategic vision (such as the maximum size of projects, capital
expenditure per year, and other metrics).
Project Level. Exercise ultimate control over project risks even when an EPC/
EPCM contractor is in charge of implementation. This entails understanding
risks at each step in the project, classifying them by severity and likelihood,
determining options to mitigate each risk, and implementing a forward-looking
reporting system to proactively intervene.
10
Large-Capex-Project Management
Global Sourcing. Source from low-cost countries to capture major cost savings.
Some difficulties may arise (such as inferior technologies or a lack of after-sale
services), but these can be addressed through supplier development and collaboration programs. Global sourcing must be closely linked to standardization
and modularization of designs and components in order to achieve the level of
scale that makes it cost effective.
Demand Management. Adjust procurement quality to the projects real requirements, and understand changes in category demand to more effectively negotiate
with suppliers. For example, a mining company noted that a significant time lag
existed between increases in commodity prices and subsequent increases in the
price of earth-moving equipment. By altering the timing of negotiations to capitalize on this lag, the company identified a potential capital savings of 8 to 12 percent.
Process Excellence. Optimize costs over the entire life cycle of a project, factoring
in not only product prices but also the total cost of ownership. A power generation company that used this approachevaluating the total cost of primary and
secondary equipment and of consumables and spare partssaved 8 to 14 percent in the life cycle costs of key equipment.
Make or Buy Decisions. Externalize products or services to optimize costs. Estimate cost reduction potential per category given the companys current position
and future goals, taking into account future demand volumes that could lead to
scale or learning effects.
In applying these principles, companies should establish key performance indicators to regularly monitor the performance of the procurement function and identify
11
areas to improve. The most relevant KPIs include identified or realized cash savings
per category, the contribution of savings to earnings before interest and taxes,
procurement budget by category, and the number of suppliers accounting for
80 percent of spending.
Developers and
contractors should
consider long-term
relationships that
create win-win situations that outlast the
business cycle.
Identify the projects scope and value drivers. Set expectations and identify the
main value driverssuch as the required execution speed, production targets,
and internal personnel available to manage the projectat the projects earliest
stages. Consider overall risk and project size. In the oil and gas sector, for
example, full EPC contracts are never signed for projects worth more than
$5 billion.
12
Large-Capex-Project Management
Second, in the RFP phase, developers must focus on identifying the differentiators among bids that could affect their value, such as project calendar, payment
plans, insurances and guarantees, and penalties, among others.
Finally, during the negotiation phase, developers must clarify the conditions of the
collaboration in order to avoid potential misunderstandings. These include framework KPIs, final scope, timetables, personnel, services, and remuneration scheme.
A staffing model to develop talent and ensure the best use of available resources
13
Proactively securing
access to scarce
resources over the
medium term in
areas where there is a
high concentration of
projects is a key
differentiator.
Price volatility and resource availability are the two factors that can have the most
substantial impact on a projects budget and schedule. To understand the companys exposure to these risks, developers should understand their access to supplies
of critical commodities, their negotiating power with suppliers, the availability of
substitutes, and the impact of a shortage on the projects value.
Finally, to ensure that critical equipment is available when needed and without
delays, developers should understand the universe of key equipment suppliersincluding global and regional playerstheir prices, and their delivery lead times. The
lead time for the delivery of critical equipment tends to be long, especially during
demand peaks and when local content requirements affect the market. For example,
in the mining industry, a ball mill can take up to 28 months to deliver, while a cone
crusher can take 34 months. One potential solution is to optimize equipment sourcing by bundling orders at the corporate level, giving developers more leverage to
reduce costs and lead times. This also allows companies to share equipment among
projects and reduce demand volatility by considering the entire backlog of projects.
System Speed. Divide construction work into sections and subsections that are
small enough to be controlled in short cycles. Sequence the work units in each
subsection to avoid bottlenecks and wait times, and delineate the work sequence in detailed plans, schedules, and charts. The final production plan
should allow for daily controls, so that any deviations can be rapidly identified
and corrected.
The pull principle applies the lean concept to the logistics chain to create a stable
and efficient material and resource flow. It ensures that all the required resources
are provided on demand and to required quality standards.
14
Large-Capex-Project Management
Materials Planning. Classify materials according to the lead time and delivery
method ( just in time, just in sequence, or others). Link the flow of materials to
the overall production plan, assigning an order signal in the production timeline
depending on the lead time of the particular material. Create an availability
boardupdated dailyto monitor the status of materials for the next five days.
Materials Disposal. Organize waste disposal processes to reduce costs and help
protect the environment.
Companies applying
BCGs programmanagement-office
approach registered
value in excess of
$25 billion in 2010.
Gate Cycles. Define a clear control process based on review gates after each
section of the project is completed.
15
Process Design. Define all the major elements of project development, including
human resource requirements, action plans, key metrics, and reporting systems.
Project Execution Control. Identify, evaluate, and solve key implementation issues
on the basis of reports submitted by project teams. Act as a main hub for
addressing these issues. Supervise single teams, help build consensus among
teams, and prepare status reports for executive-level decision making.
ffectively managing large-capex projects in todays uncertain environmentwith costs, complexity, and risk increasing, financing drying up, and
resources becoming harder to secureis a significant challenge. The BCG LPM
Octagon can give project owners and EPC/EPCM contractors a clear edge.
These eight levers can yield significant results. For example, a well-executed
contracting strategy can reduce the total construction cost of a coal power plant
by 25 percent. Excellence in construction practices can eliminate approximately
50 percent of the wasteful activities of a construction site. A procurement excellence initiative that systematically optimizes procurement categories can save
8 percent of total costs initially and an additional 2 percent in each year that
follows.
All eight levers require the organization to focus on performance and to implement
control mechanisms to oversee the development process. Through the correct use
of these eight levers, large-project management can be the successful and profitable
enterprise that companies envision.
16
Large-Capex-Project Management
17
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The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. 2012. All rights reserved.
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