UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION x UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION Motor Systems Efficiency Supply Curves December 2010 Disclaimer This document has been produced without formal United Nations editing. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or its economic system or degree of development. Designations such as "developed", "industrialized" and "developing" are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. Mention of firm names or commercial products does not constitute an endorsement by UNIDO. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of information herein, neither UNIDO nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from the use of the material. This document may be freely quoted or reprinted but acknowledgement is requested. iii The principal authors, Aimee McKane and Ali Hasanbeigi of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, gratefully acknowledge the helpful guidance and insightful comments provided by Dolf Gielen and Sanjaya Shrestha of UNIDO. They would also like to thank Manuel Welsch and Morgan Bazilian of UNIDO for their assistance during this project. Motor System Experts This work could not have been completed without the contributions and guidance of the motor system experts listed below. Their knowledge of the subject matter, patience with the iterative process of developing a new research framework, and generosity in finding time in extremely busy schedules are gratefully acknowledged. Compressed Air Systems Thomas Taranto, Data Power Services, Lead Ron Marshall, Manitoba Hydro David Booth, Sullair Corporation Frank Moskowitz, Draw Professional Services Qin Hongbo, Shanghai Energy Conservation Service Center Wayne Perry, Kaeser Compressors Pumping Systems Steven Bolles, Process Energy Services, Lead Gunnar Hovstadius, Gunnar Hovstadius LLC Anibal de Almeida, ISR - University of Coimbra Frank Ennenbach, ABS Fan Systems Ron Wroblewski, Productive Energy Services, Lead Anibal de Almeida, ISR - University of Coimbra Hugh Falkner, Atkins Global Services Vern Martin, Flow Care Additional Contributors Rob Boteler, Emerson Motors Tobias Fleiter, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Agenor Gomes Pinto Garcia, UFBA, Bahia, Brazil Ivan Jaques Programa Pas de Eficiencia Energtica, Chile Michael McNeil, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Nguyen Hoang Anh, Institute of Energy, Vietnam Lynn Price, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Acknowledgements x v Executive Summary 1 1. Introduction 7 2. Approach 9 3. Methodology 10 3.1. Literature Review 10 3.2. Experts Input 12 3.2.1. Defining Three Base Case System Efficiency Scenarios 12 (LOW-MEDIUM-HIGH) 3.2.2. Determining the Impact of Energy Efficiency Measures 15 3.2.3. Motor System Energy Use by Sector 18 3.3. Data Preparation and Assumptions 18 3.4. Construction of Motor System Efficiency Supply Curves 25 3.4.1. Introduction to the Conservation Supply Curve 25 3.4.2. Discount Rate 26 3.4.3. Calculation of the Annual Energy Savings 27 3.4.4. Calculation of the Cost of Conserved Electricity 29 4. Results and Discussion 36 4.1. Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curves 36 4.2. Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curves 50 4.3. Fan System Efficiency Supply Curves 64 4.4. Maintenance and Persistence of Energy Savings 78 4.5. Sensitivity Analysis 80 5. Conclusion 86 References 91 Appendices 94 A.1. Country-Specific Data 98 Table of Contents x 1 Motor-driven equipment accounts for approximately 60% of manufacturing final electricity use and are ubiquitous in industrial facilities worldwide. Motor systems, such as compressed air, pumping, and fan systems, represent a largely untapped, cost-effective source for industrial energy efficiency savings that could be realized with existing technologies. Although motor systems have the potential to contribute substantial energy savings, on the order of 2.58 EJ in final energy use, this potential is largely unrealized (IEA 2007). A major barrier to effective policymaking, and to more global acceptance of the energy efficiency potential of motor systems, is the lack of a transparent methodology for quantifying this potential based on sufficient data to document the magnitude and cost- effectiveness of these energy savings by country and by region. It is far easier to quantify the incremental energy savings of substituting an energy efficient motor for a standard motor than it is to quantify energy savings of applying energy efficiency practices to an existing motor system. The former is dependent on the appropriate matching of the replacement motor, but reasonable assumptions can be made that an incremental benefit against current practice will occur. The latter is based on the concept of changing current practice by applying commercially available technologies in the most energy efficient manner, and requires onsite evaluation to maximize system energy efficiency. This report and supporting analyses represent an initial effort to address this barrier, thus supporting greater global acceptance of the energy efficiency potential of motor systems, through the construction of a series of motor system efficiency supply curves, by motor system and by country studied. It is important to note, however, the limitations of this initial study. The purpose of this research is to provide guidance for national policy makers and is not a substitute for a detailed technical assessment of the motor Executive Summary MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES system energy efficiency opportunities of a specific site. 1 The research framework created to conduct the analyses supporting this Phase I report is based on a combination of expert input and available data. While it is important to acknowledge that the methodology employed blurs real variations that may exist in system performance from one industrial sector to another within a country, it is consistent with the level of precision possible with the available data. The report is meant to be a beginning, not an end unto itself. The authors and sponsors of this research seek to initiate an international dialogue with others having an interest in the energy efficiency potential of motor systems. Through this dialogue, it is hoped that the initial framework for quantifying motor system energy efficiency potential created for this report will be refined based on additional input and data. Study Scope and Methodology For these Phase I analyses, six countries/region were selected that represent varying sizes and levels of industrial development, and for which industrial energy use by sector and some information about motor system efficiency practices were available. These initial six are the United States, Canada, the European Union, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. The first step was a literature review to develop a baseline of information. Next a data collection framework was developed to obtain expert input to supplement the existing data. Input was received from thirteen motor system experts, including at least four experts for each of the three systems analyzed (compressed air, fans, and pumping). Information was sought from these experts on the % of system energy use by industrial sector, the energy efficiency of systems in a market with a defined set of characteristics, creation of a list of common energy efficiency measures, and the energy savings and implementation costs associated with these measures. Several cycles of input, analyses, and review were performed to better refine these expert inputs. The final installed costs for the measures analyzed were adjusted for variations in labor costs across the six countries (see Labor Adjustment Factor, page 32). No such adjustment was made for materials/equipment costs due to limited data; however, materials/equipment costs can vary widely from country to country based on import taxes, tax credits, availability, and other factors. These variations in cost would benefit from further study. Also, it should be mentioned that the full cost of the measures are used in this report rather than the incremental cost of energy efficient measures. (see Section 3.2 for further details). Country-specific data was collected in parallel with the motor system expert consultation. After receiving expert input and completing collection of the country- specific data, the Motor System Efficiency Supply Curves were constructed. Details of the methodology and research framework are provided in Section 3 of this report. A summary of the inputs to the supply curves is included in Table ES-1 below. 2 1 In addition to literature describing the system assessment included in the bibliography of this report, the American National Standards Institute (ASME) has recently published standards and guidance on conducting energy system assessments. See http://catalog.asme.org/ EA-1 through EA-4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This table summarizes the relative effect of a range of inputs on the cost-effectiveness of the selected measures. Some inputs, such as energy savings, useful life and cost of individual measures, account for the variation between the cost effectiveness of measures, whereas others, such as the base case assumption, the electricity price, and the estimated motor system energy use, account for the variation in results between countries. The same discount rate of 10% was used for all countries studied, although a sensitivity analysis for a range of discount rates was conducted. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted for electricity prices. (See Section 4.5 for details of these analyses). A study of the relative impact of load factors and hours of operation would also be a useful subject for further research. Key Findings Based on expert input, ten energy- efficiency technologies and measures for pumping systems, ten measures for the fan systems and sixteen measures for compressed air systems were selected for analysis. Using the bottom-up energy efficiency supply curve model, the cost- effective electricity efficiency potentials for these motor systems were estimated for the six countries in the analyses. Total technical electricity-saving potentials were also estimated for 100% penetration of the measures in the base year. An overview of the cost effectiveness of these measures by country is illustrated in Table ES-2. 3 Table ES-1: Inputs to the Construction of Supply Curves Parameter Account for variation of results between countries Account for variation of results between EE measures Base Case Assumption X Typical % Improvement in Energy Efficiency Over Current Pump System Efficiency Practice X Typical Installed Cost X Labor Adjustment Factor X Expected Useful Life of Measure X Discount Rate Same discount rate was used for all measures and countries. A change of discount rate, would change the CCE in all measures and countries. Electricity Price X Average Hours of Operation by Horsepower for the Motor System X Distribution of Industrial Motors by Part Load for the Motor System X The motor System Energy Use (GWh/Yr) by Horsepower (Weighted Average for Total Industry) X MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 4 No. Pump system efficiency measures US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil 1.1.1 Fix Leaks, damaged seals, and packing X X X X 1.1.2 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers X X 1.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping X X X 1.2.1 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps X X X X X 1.2.2 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment X X X X X X 1.3.1 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements X X X X X X 1.4.1 Install variable speed drive X X X X X X 1.5 Replace pump with more energy efficient type X 1.6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type X 1.7 Initiate predictive maintenance program X Table ES-2: Cost Effective Measures in the Efficiency Supply Curves by Motor System and Country (Cost-Effective Measures are Marked with an "X") NOTE: Heat recovery excluded- see Section 3.2.2 for details Table ES-2 provides a convenient summary of results from the analyses, but is not meant to be a substitute for more detailed study of the cost-effectiveness of individual measures under site-specific conditions. Measures listed below as not meeting the cost effectiveness threshold for the purposes of these analyses, often have highly favorable simple paybacks for site specific installations based on a detailed assessment of system optimization opportunities. No. Compressed air system efficiency measures* US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil 2.1.1 Fix Leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan X X X X X X 2.1.2 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type X X X X 2.1.3 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter X X X X 2.2.1 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs X X X X X 2.2.2 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss X X X 2.2.3 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping X X 2.2.4 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment X X 2.3.1 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses X X X X X X 2.3.2 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. X X X X X X 2.3.3 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage X X X X X 2.4.1 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery X 2.5.1 Install sequencer X X X X X X 2.5.2 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 2.6 Match air treatment to demand side needs X 2.7 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 2.8 Initiate predictive maintenance program X X X X X X EXECUTIVE SUMMARY base case. The share of total technical electricity saving potential for fan systems as compared with the total fan system energy use in studied industries in the base year varies between 27% and 46%. Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil have higher technical saving potentials because their fan systems are classified as LOW efficiency base case. The share of cost-effective electricity saving potential as compared to the total motor system energy use in the base case varies between 27% and 49% for the pumping system, 21% and 47% for the compressed air system, and 14% and 46% for the fan system. Overall, Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil have a higher percentage for cost-effective potential as compared to total motor systems energy use. There are two reasons for this. First, the three developing countries have the LOW efficiency base case, so the efficiency improvement over the base case is higher for each measure, resulting in a lower CCE. Second, the application of a labor 5 No. Fan system efficiency measures US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil 3.1.1 Fix Leaks and damaged seals X X X X X X 3.1.2 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives X X X X X X 3.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces X X X X X X 3.1.4 Correct damper problems X X X X X X 3.2.1 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non-operating equipment X X X X X X 3.2.2 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets X X X X X X 3.3.1 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type X X X 3.4.1 Install variable speed drive X X X X X 3.5 Replace motor with more energy efficient type X X 3.6 Initiate predictive maintenance program X X X X X X A summary of the results of the cost- effective and technical energy savings for all motor systems and countries studied are presented in Table ES-3. Using the average CO2 emission factor of the electricity grid in each country, the CO2 emission reduction associated with the electricity saving potentials was also calculated. The share of total technical electricity saving potential for pumping systems as compared to the total pumping system energy use in studied industries for the base year varies between 43% and 57%. The 57% value is for Vietnam, which has the LOW efficiency base case and a correspondingly higher technical saving potential. The share of total technical electricity saving potential for compressed air systems as compared to the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries for the base year varies between 29% and 56%. Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil have higher technical saving potentials since their compressed air systems are classified in LOW efficiency MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES adjustment factor in the calculation of CCE for Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil reduced the CCE; thus allowing more measures to fall below the electricity price line. A further study was conducted of the relative dependence on regular maintenance of energy savings from the measures studied and this result was compared to the cost-effectiveness of these measures (see Section 4.4 Maintenance and Persistence of Energy Savings). The dependence of many of the cost effective motor system energy efficiency measures on effective maintenance is one indicator of the potential benefits from implementing an Energy Management System (EnMS), and hints at the potential impact from implementation of the future International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 50001- Energy Management System. A principal goal of the ISO 50001 standard is to foster continual and sustained energy performance improvement through a disciplined approach to operations and maintenance practices. Finally, it should be noted that some energy efficiency measures provide productivity, environmental, and other benefits in addition to energy savings, but it is difficult to quantify those benefits. Including quantified estimates of other benefits can decrease the cost of conserved energy and, thus, increase the number of cost-effective efficiency measures (Worrell, et al. 2003). This could be the subject of further research. The approach used in this study and the model developed should be viewed as a screening tool to present energy-efficiency measures and capture the energy-saving potential in order to help policy makers understand the potential of savings and design appropriate energy-efficiency policies. However, the energy-saving potentials and the cost of energy-efficiency measures and technologies will vary in accordance with country- and plant-specific conditions. Finally, effective energy- efficiency policies and programs are needed to realize the cost effective potentials and to exceed those potentials in the future. 6 Total Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industrial Pump, Compressed Air, and Fan System (GWh/yr) Share of Saving from Electricity use in Pump, Compressed Air, and Fan Systems in Studied Industries in 2008 Total Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential in Industrial Pump, Compressed Air, and Fan System (kton CO2/yr) Cost Effective Technical Cost Effective Technical Cost Effective Technical U.S 71,914 100,877 25% 35% 43,342 60,798 Canada 16,461 27,002 25% 40% 8,185 13,426 EU 58,030 76,644 29% 39% 25,301 33,417 Thailand 8,343 9,659 43% 49% 4,330 5,013 Vietnam 4,026 4,787 46% 54% 1,973 2,346 Brazil 13,836 14,675 42% 44% 2,017 2,140 Total (sum of 6 countries) 172,609 233,644 28% 38% 85,147 117,139 Table ES-3: Total Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential in Industrial Pump, Compressed Air, and Fan Systems * In calculation of energy savings, equipment 1000 hp or greater are excluded 7 Motor-driven equipment accounts for approximately 60% of manufacturing final electricity use and are ubiquitous in indus- trial facilities worldwide. Motor systems, such as compressed air, pumping, and fan systems, represent a largely untapped, cost-effective source for industrial energy efficiency savings that could be realized with existing technologies. Although motor systems have the potential to contribute substantial energy savings, on the order of 2.58 EJ in final energy use, this potential is largely unrealized (IEA 2007). Motor systems are made up of a range of components centered on a motor-driven device such as a compressor, pump or fan. Figure 1 provides a schematic of a conventional pumping system with a system efficiency of 31%. Introduction 1 Figure 1: Conventional Pumping System Schematic (Almeida, et al., 2005.) MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 8 A major barrier to effective policymaking, and to more global acceptance of the energy efficiency potential of motor system, is the lack of a transparent methodology for quantifying this potential based on sufficient data to document the magnitude and cost-effectiveness of these energy savings by country and by region. It is far easier to quantify the incremental energy savings of substituting an energy efficient motor for a standard motor than it is to quantify energy savings of applying energy efficiency practices to an existing motor system. The former is dependent on the appropriate matching of the replacement motor, but reasonable assumptions can be made that an incremental benefit against current practice will occur. The latter is based on the concept of changing current practice by applying commercially available technologies in the most energy efficient manner, and requires onsite evaluation to maximize system efficiency. Based on documented results from hundreds of system optimization projects, the difference in savings potential between motor replacement and motor system optimization is on the order of 2% - 5% for motors versus 20% - 30% for motor systems. Providing a framework for quantifying motor system energy efficiency potential that moves beyond case studies of individual applications is needed. The motor systems included in this study are: compressed air, fan, and pumping systems. There are three primary barriers to improving motor system energy efficiency: lack of awareness of the energy savings opportunity, lack of support from management to undertake motor system energy efficiency projects, and limited understanding by consulting engineers and service providers on how to identify and implement system energy efficiency improvement opportunities in new and existing motor-driven systems. The United Nations Development Organization (UNIDO) has undertaken a global initiative on industrial energy efficiency, focused on energy management and systems optimization, which is designed to address these barriers. With the support of the host countries and the Global Environmental Facility, a series of projects at the national and facility level are engaging a range of stakeholders in the industrial energy efficiency market toward that end: government, regulators, factory personnel, industry managers, service providers and equipment vendors. While these efforts are extremely important, more needs to be done to provide a framework for effective national and international decision-making on industrial energy efficiency policy as it relates to motor systems. 9 This report and the supporting analyses is an initial effort to begin to meet the need for a framework for quantifying motor system energy efficiency potential by developing a transparent methodology for constructing a motor system efficiency supply curve. The approach used is a combination of available data and expert opinion. The intent of this Phase I report is to: document the methodology used, apply it to six countries/regions including developed, emerging, and developing countries, invite comment from a community of technical and policy experts, refine these analyses based on comments received, and invite participation in a Phase II effort involving additional countries. Although comprehensive data on motor system energy use does not exist for most countries, industrial energy use data by sector is available for a number of countries and energy efficiency professionals in those countries are often aware of current motor system practices. This report builds on previous efforts to quantify the energy saving potential of motor systems by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Department of Energy BestPractices and Save Energy Now initiatives, the E.U. Motor Challenge and SAVE initiatives, Natural Resources Canada, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, Programa Pas de Eficiencia Energtica-Chile, ISI Fraunhofer, and others. It is the goal of this report to create sufficient interest in the benefits of collecting and analyzing these data to develop broader international participation from policymakers and energy efficiency professionals for a Phase II Report. Target Countries For this Phase I analysis, six countries/region were selected that represent varying sizes and levels of industrial development, and for which industrial energy use by sector and some information about motor system efficiency practices were available. These initial six are the United States, Canada, the European Union, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. In addition, Chile provided useful data on motor system practices, but will be included in Phase II rather than Phase I due to some uncertainty associated with the results of a recent national industrial energy use survey. Approach 2 10 Figure 2 shows a schematic of the methodology used for this study. The first step was a literature review (see References) to develop a baseline of information. Next a data collection framework was developed to obtain expert input to supplement the existing data. Input was sought from a total of seventeen motor system experts known to the authors and responses were received from thirteen of them. At least four experts responded for each of the three systems analyzed (compressed air, fans, and pumping), with one expert providing input on two systems. Information was sought from these experts on: the % of system energy use as compared to total energy use by industrial sector; the energy efficiency of systems in a market with a defined set of characteristics; creation of a list of common energy efficiency measures; and the energy savings and implementation costs associated with these measures. Several cycles of input, analyses, and review were performed to better define these inputs into the resulting Motor System Efficiency Supply Curve. Details concerning this expert input are provided in Section 3.2 Country-specific data was collected in parallel with the motor system expert consultation. After receiving expert input and completing collection of the country- specific data, the Motor System Efficiency Supply Curves were constructed based on the methodology explained below. 3 .1. Literature Review The literature review included a comprehensive scan for relevant reports, publications, and papers on industrial energy use in the six countries targeted in Phase I. In addition, the authors drew from existing sources, including both published and unpublished documents, for information on motor system energy use and energy efficiency opportunities. These references are provided at the end of this report. Notable sources of information on motor systems included: US DOE (2002), US DOE (2004), IEA (2007), de Almeida et al. (2003), and Fraunhofer ISI (2009). Methodology 3 METHODOLOGY 11 Literature review (section 3.1) Design data collection framework Experts Input (section 3.2) Data preparation and Assumptions (section 3.3) Calculation of Labor Adjustment Factor Motor System Efficiency Supply Curves Calculation of preliminary cost of conserved electricity used for the ranking of the measures that is used for calculating the Cumulative Annual Input Electricity Saving Calculation of final cost of conserved electricity used in the Supply Curves Calculation of the energy savings taking into account the interaction between measures Construction of Motor System Efficiency Supply Curves (section 3.4) Motor System Energy Use by Sector Defining the typical percentage improvement in energy efficiency over current system efficiency practice, capital cost, share of the labor cost from capital cost of measures, persistence, and useful lifetime of measures Defining the estimates of the system efficiency for three Base Case Efficiency Scenarios (LOW-MEDIUM- HIGH) Assumptions on discount rate, exchange rate, etc. Country-specific data Consolidate experts' data Figure 2: Schematic of the Methodology used for this Study MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES The first step in establishing a base case was to create a unique list of system energy efficiency practices representative of each of three efficiency scenarios for each system type. The initial lists for each system type were created by the authors and reviewed and revised by an expert in each system type before circulating the list for further expert review. Tables 1-3 provide the list of practices defined for each base-case efficiency level. The experts were asked to review the list of proposed energy efficiency practices for each of the three efficiency scenarios (LOW-MEDIUM-HIGH) and to either approve or make recommendations to improve the groupings provided. The experts were then asked to provide a low to high estimated range of the system energy efficiency (expressed as a %) they would expect to see when auditing a system in an industrial market with the characteristics given for each efficiency scenario. A range of efficiency was requested, rather than a single value to better align with the variations that are likely to be found in industrial settings. 3.2. Experts Input 3.2.1. Defining Three Base Case System Efficiency Scenarios (LOW- MEDIUM-HIGH) The approach used was to establish three base case efficiency scenarios (LOW- MEDIUM-HIGH) for each of three system typespumping, compressed air, and fan systems based on previous research and the experts' opinion. There was a remarkable degree of agreement among the experts concerning the range of efficiency for each system type that could be expected from these base case scenarios. After defining the base cases, "base case" values were assigned to each country of study for the purpose of providing a reference point for the current (pumping, compressed air, or fan) system performance in that country, based on the information available for that country. While it is important to acknowledge that this approach blurs the real variations that may exist in system performance from one industrial sector to another within a country, it is consistent with the level of precision possible with the available data. It is hoped that this approach can be fine- tuned as part of a Phase II effort. 12 No. LOW Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 Few pumping systems have ever been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Maintenance is limited to what is required to support operations 3 Flow is typically controlled by throttling or bypass 4 Flow in excess of actual system needs is common 5 Variable speed drives are not commonly used 6 Motors of all sizes are routinely rewound multiple times instead of replaced 7 5% or less of the installed motors are high efficiency--either EPAct or EFF1 equivalent Table 1: Characteristics of LOW-MEDIUM-HIGH Efficiency Base Case Scenarios for Pumping Systems METHODOLOGY 13 No. LOW Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 Few compressed air systems have ever been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Maintenance is limited to what is required to support operations 3 Compressors are independently controlled; energy use of partly loaded compressor(s) not known 4 System pressure profile, supply/demand balance, and storage, not optimized 5 Leaks are greater than 35%, and there are no plans to fix them 6 There is widespread inappropriate use of compressed air 7 Motors of all sizes are routinely rewound multiple times instead of replaced No. MEDIUM Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 ~15% of compressed air systems have been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Maintenance is a routine part of operations and includes some preventative actions 3 Compressor control is coordinated and a single trim compressor operates efficiently 4 Variable speed drives are proposed as a solution for flow control 5 Leaks are > 20%, but < 35% and are fixed periodically 6 There is widespread inappropriate use of compressed air 7 Motors > 37 kW are typically rewound multiple times, while smaller motors may be replaced No. HIGH Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 ~30% compressed air systems have been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Both routine and predictive maintenance are commonly practiced 3 Compressor controls and storage are used to efficiently match supply to demand 4 System pressure profile from supply to end use has been optimized 5 Leaks < 20%; Leaks management is ongoing 6 Inappropriate end use of compressed air has been minimized 7 Most facilities have a written rewind/replace policy that prohibits rewinding smaller motors (typ <37 kW) No. HIGH Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 ~30% pumping systems have been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Both routine and predictive maintenance are commonly practiced 3 Flow is not controlled by throttling or bypass except in emergencies 4 Fluid is only pumped where and when needed to meet demand 5 Variable speed drives are one of several flow control strategies commonly applied to increase system efficiency 6 Most facilities have a written rewind/replace policy that prohibits rewinding smaller motors (typ <37 kW) 7 50% or more of the installed motors are high efficiency--either EPAct or EFF1 equivalent No. MEDIUM Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 ~15% of pumping systems have been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Maintenance is a routine part of operations and includes some preventative actions 3 System operators take steps to avoid controlling flow via throttling or bypass 4 Efforts are taken to efficiently match supply with demand 5 Variable speed drives are proposed as a solution for flow control 6 Motors > 37 kW are typically rewound multiple times, while smaller motors may be replaced 7 ~25% of the installed motors are high efficiency--either EPAct or EFF1 equivalent Table 2: Characteristics of LOW-MEDIUM-HIGH Efficiency Base Case Scenarios for Compressed Air Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 14 No. LOW Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 Few fan systems have ever been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Maintenance is limited to what is required to support operations 3 Flow is typically controlled by dampers or bypass 4 Low cost fans types, like radial, are often used even in clean air applications 5 Fans are often located on the dirty side of the process 6 Fans are oversized for the present load 7 Variable speed drives or variable inlet vanes are not commonly used 8 Motors of all sizes are routinely rewound multiple times instead of replaced 9 5% or less of the installed motors are high efficiency--either EPAct or EFF1 equivalent No. MEDIUM Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 ~30% fan systems representing 60% of the connected fan load have been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Maintenance is a routine part of operations and includes some preventative actions 3 System operators take steps to avoid controlling flow via dampers or bypass 4 Fans are located on the clean side of the process whenever possible 5 Airfoil or backward curved impellers are used in clean air handling applications 6 Fans are chosen to efficiently serve a given condition 7 Variable speed drives or variable inlet vanes are proposed as a solution for flow control 8 Motors > 37 kW are typically rewound multiple times, while smaller motors may be replaced 9 ~25% of the installed motors are high efficiency--either EPAct or EFF1 equivalent No. HIGH Efficiency Base Case Scenario 1 ~50% fan systems representing 80% of the connected fan load have been assessed for system energy efficiency 2 Both routine and predictive maintenance are commonly practiced 3 Flow is not controlled by dampers or bypass except in emergencies 4 Variable speed drives are one of several flow control strategies commonly applied to increase system efficiency 5 Fans are located on the clean side of the process whenever possible 6 Fans types are chosen based on the highest efficient type to serve a given condition 7 Fans are selected and procured so that typical process flow and pressure requirements are at or near Best Efficiency Point 8 Most facilities have a written rewind/replace policy that prohibits rewinding smaller motors (typ <45 kW) 9 50% or more of the installed motors are high efficiency--either EPAct or EFF1 equivalent Table 3: Characteristics Defined of LOW-MEDIUM-HIGH Efficiency Base Case Scenarios for Fan Systems METHODOLOGY 3.2.2. Determining the Impact of Energy Efficiency Measures For this purpose, a list of potential measures to improve system energy efficiency was developed for each system type and sent to the experts for review. For each group of measures, we asked experts to provide their opinion on energy savings likely to result from implementation of each measure, taken as an independent action, expressed as a % improvement over each of the LOW-MED- HIGH base cases,. The percentage efficiency improvement by the implementation of each measure over the LOW base case will be greater than that of the MEDIUM base case, which will in turn be greater than the value given for the HIGH base case. For instance, since the LOW base case is defined by limited maintenance, the % improvement from maintenance-related measures would be expected to be greater than that of the HIGH base case, for which both routine and predictive maintenance are common. The experts were also asked to critique the list of measures. Based on the responses received, some edits were made to the list of measures, requiring a second round of review to validate the % efficiency improvement values. The experts were also asked to provide cost information for each measure, disaggregated by motor size range. The size ranges were selected based on categories developed for the most detailed motor system study available (US DOE, 2002). For the purpose of this study, the term "motor system size" refers to the aggregate motor HP or KW for that system. In addition to the energy efficiency improvement cost, the experts were also asked to provide the useful lifetime of the measures, disaggregated into two categories of operating hours (between 1000 hrs and 4500 hrs per year and more than 4500 hrs per year). Finally, the experts were asked to indicate the degree to which the energy saving achieved by each measure is dependent on the future maintenance practices (limited, moderately, or highly dependent). The experts provided a % improvement for each measure over the base case scenarios using a 0-100% scale. Thus, for instance, if 30% of the compressed air is lost to leaks and the leak rate is reduced to 10%, then that is a 20% improvement over the base case. So experts would enter 20% in the space provided for measure 2.1.1 for compressed air system (fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan). In some instances, the initial list of measures included several measures that would be unlikely to be implemented togetherit is more likely that one would be selected. For example, it is likely that matching pumping system supply to demand would include one of the measures below, rather than all three. 1.4.1 Trim or Change Impeller to Match Output to Requirements 1.4.2 Install Pony Pump 1.4.3 Install New Properly Sized Pump For this reason, in situations for which there appear to be groupings of several proposed solutions to address a specific problem, during the second round of review, the experts were asked: 15 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES Are these measures "either, or" rather than "and" solutions? If the measures are "either, or" (in other words they are alternative measures and cannot be implemented at the same time), as a very general statement, we asked experts which one is the most typical or common? For compressed air systems, heat recovery can be extremely beneficial to improving the energy efficiency of the system because this measure has the potential to address the energy lost through heat of compression (typically 80% of input energy). Despite this potential, its applicability is dependent on a suitable use for the resulting low grade heat. Because compressed air system heat recovery would need to be added to the base case rather than applied as a % improvement and consensus could not be reached concerning its potential across countries and climates, the measure was not included in the final analyses. It should be noted, however, that with appropriate application, compressed air system heat recovery has the potential to increase overall system efficiency more than any other compressed air measure listed. Information was also sought concerning the dependence of energy savings resulting from implementation of each measure on maintenance practices. As an example, persistence of savings from fixing compressed air leaks is Highly Dependent, whereas replacing a motor with a more efficient type would be categorized as Limited Dependent. The purpose of including these data was to assess the relative importance of an energy management system in sustaining the energy efficiency resulting from these measures. A detailed discussion of the results is included in Section 4.4 of this report. In addition to dependence on maintenance practices, energy savings and the cost- effectiveness of individual system optimization measures can be significantly affected by human behavior. The experts involved in this report have all witnessed the impact on system efficiency of practices such as bypassed controls or "adjustments" made to return to a previous (and more familiar) mode of operation after an energy efficiency improvement is made. In some instances, potentially cost-effective approaches such as preventative maintenance programs can become an end in themselves, as the original purpose of the program is lost in the paperwork process. The importance of proper training and work instructions to support new operating procedures as well as the need to share the goals for these procedures with personnel responsible for their successful implementation cannot be overstated. This is a key feature of an effective energy management system. For typical capital cost, rough estimates were sought for each measure in US $ for six categories of motor size ranges. Experts were further given the opportunity to indicate that a measure was no- cost/low-cost (Table 4-6). For systems larger than 1000 hp (745kW), the system is usually custom-designed and the cost is highly variable. This was further compounded by having no upper bound for this size category. The cost data given by experts for this size of systems varied so much that it was imposing additional uncertainty on the final results. For these 16 METHODOLOGY reasons, we decided to exclude systems larger than 1000 hp (745kW) from the final analysis. A more extensive dialogue with experts on the cost of larger systems might permit their inclusion in future analyses. The systems larger than 1000 hp account for 3%8% of the total electricity use by pumping system, 8%28% of the total electricity use by fan system, and 15%44% of the total electricity use by compressed air system (all sizes) in industry in the studied countries. The share of energy use by systems larger than 1000 hp compared to the total energy use (all sizes) by each motor system type (pumping, fan, compressed air) in industry in the countries/region studied is shown the table below. As can be seen, exclusion of pumping systems larger than 1000 hp will not affect the total energy use of the systems covered in our analysis. However, for compressed air and, to a lesser extent, fans, systems larger than 1000hp account for a significant share of their total energy use in industry. The exclusion of these systems from the analysis resulted in a proportional decrease in the total system energy use in the analysis, and a corresponding decrease in the energy savings resulting from the energy efficiency measures analyzed. This limitation should be considered when reviewing the results of the analysis presented in this report. This report uses the estimated full cost of the measures analyzed rather than the incremental cost for energy efficient measures. This was driven by the goal of the analysis, to assess the total potential for energy efficiency in industrial motor systems in the base year assuming 100% penetration rate. Therefore, the energy savings is based on the assumption that all the measures are installed in the base year. In this case, the full cost of the measures should be applied since the existing systems are not all at the end of their lifetime. However, for other type of studies, such as a supply curve used to develop future scenarios, the use of incremental cost makes a better sense, since new stock can be installed at the end of the lifetime of the existing ones. 17 Table 4: The Share of Energy Use by System Larger than 1000 hp (745 kW) Compared to the Total Energy Use by Motor System Type Country/Region Pumping Energy Fan Energy Compressed Air Energy US 8% 19% 44% Canada 4% 28% 22% EU 5% 15% 19% Thailand 3% 8% 11% Vietnam 3% 9% 10% Brazil 4% 21% 24% MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES Using the % energy efficiency improvement and the typical costs provided, an extensive cross-check was conducted of simple paybacks for the list of measures intended as input into the cost curves. This analysis was very useful in identifying sensitivities in the data leading to further consultation with the experts. Tables 7-9 in Section 3.3 include the results of analysis of the expert input for energy efficiency improvement and cost by measure and by system. A discussion of other factors affecting cost, including equipment and labor cost variations by country can also be found in Section 3.3. 3.2.3. Motor System Energy Use by Sector US DOE (2002), US DOE (2004), and de Almeida (2003) all presented different values for the percentage of electricity use by the motor system type (pumping, fan, compressed air) in a selection of 15 industrial sectors, expressed in relationship to the total electricity use in each sector. Since the values given in these three studies can vary significantly, the experts were also asked to give their best estimate of the typical percentage of electricity used by the system type (pumping, compressed air, or fan) as compared to the electricity use for 15 industrial sectors. To assist the experts in this effort, and to give them an idea of the range of data currently available, a table was provided for motor system total electricity use (not disaggregated by the system type) as the % of total electricity use in each industrial sector as reported in three sources: US DOE (2002), US DOE (2004), and de Almeida (2003). We requested that experts estimate: a) the system electricity use as % of overall electricity use in the sector OR b) System electricity use as % of motor system electricity use in the sector The results from the experts were compared with the three studies and a final estimate was developed for each industrial sector. (See the Appendices for additional information). 3.3. Data Preparation and Assumptions As mentioned before, the experts were asked to assign system efficiency, expressed as a range, for LOW-MED-HIGH efficiency base cases. Table 5 is the consolidated results, including the baseline values used in calculating the cost curves. There was a high degree of agreement among experts for each system type regarding the range of system energy efficiency that would be expected to result from the list of characteristics assigned to the three base cases. As can be seen, for the compressed air and fan system, we used the average values (average of low and high values) for the LOW-MED-HIGH efficiency baseline. However, for the pump system, we used the low end of the values because application of the energy efficiency measures to the low end values provided a outcome more consistent with experts opinion for each of the baselines than using the average values. This helped to compensate for lack of interactivity between measures in the analysis, which seemed to be a particular issue for the pumping system measures. It was assumed that a 10 year period would typically be required to move a market from LOW to MEDIUM or MEDIUM to HIGH. 18 METHODOLOGY After defining the baseline efficiencies for each motor system, we assigned a "base case" to each country of study for the purpose of providing a reference point for the current (pumping, compressed air, or fan) system performance in that country based on the information available for that country. Expert judgment was used for this purpose. Table 6 shows the base case efficiencies assigned to each country for each motor system type. 19 Pumping Fan Compressed air US MED MED MED Canada MED MED MED EU MED MED MED Brazil MED LOW LOW Thailand MED LOW LOW Vietnam LOW LOW LOW System Efficiency Motor System Type Low End (%) High End (%) Average (%) Used in our Analysis Pumping Systems Low level of efficiency 20.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Medium level of efficiency 40.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% High level of efficiency 60.0% 75.0% 67.5% 60.0% Compressed Air Systems Low level of efficiency 2.0% 5.0% 3.5% 3.5% Medium level of efficiency 4.8% 8.0% 6.4% 6.4% High level of efficiency 8.0% 13.0% 10.5% 10.5% Fan Systems Low level of efficiency 15.0% 30.0% 22.5% 22.5% Medium level of efficiency 30.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% High level of efficiency 50.0% 65.0% 57.5% 57.5% Table 5: Consolidated System Efficiency for LOW-MED-HIGH Efficiency Baselines Table 6: Base Case Efficiencies Assigned to Each Country for Each Motor System Type MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES Table 7 to Table 9 depict the typical % improvement in efficiency over each baseline efficiency (LOW-MED-HIGH) as well as an estimated typical capital cost of the measure, differentiated by system size. The actual installed cost of some system measures can be highly variable and dependent on site conditions, such as the number and type of end uses. The need to add or modify physical space to accommodate new equipment can also be a factor. Finally, in developing countries, the cost of imported equipment, especially energy efficient equipment, can be higher due to scarcity, shipping, and/or import fees. The base year for all countries/region except the EU was 2008. For the EU, year 2007 was used as the base year. This was because we could obtain the 2008 energy use data for the industrial sectors for all countries, but for the EU the most recent data we could collect was 2007 energy use for the EU industrial sectors. Country-specific data was collected from various sources. Electricity use for industrial sub-sectors in each country was available. Also collected were the: average unit price of electricity for industry in each country, emission factor for grid electricity in the base year of the study in each country, weighted average net generation efficiency of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the country 2 , and average transmission and distribution losses of the electricity grid in the country in the base year. The latter two were used to calculate the conversion factor to convert electricity from final to primary energy. US DOE (2002) data as well as expert input data were used to determine 1) the motor systems electricity use as a % of total electricity use in each industrial sector and 2) each system (pump, compressed air, and fan) electricity use as % of overall motor system electricity use in the sector. The data received was consolidated and used in the analysis for all countries. For all countries except Canada, the industrial classification was different from the one used in US DOE (2002). In these cases, the data was mapped over the sectors in US DOE (2002) in a way that best represented the industry sectors given for these countries. The consolidated data for the electricity use in each manufacturing sector included in the study is given in the Appendices. 20 2 It should be noted that in some countries the share of non-fossil fuel power generation is significant. For instance, in Brazil electricity generation mix is 87% hydropower, 3% nuclear, and 10% fossil fuel. In this study, however, the net generation efficiency of fossil fuel-fired power plants is used for converting electricity consumption from final to primary energy in all countries. M E T H O D O L O G Y 2 1 * This measure is not typical for large pumps, but it is a good practice for all pumps in parallel applications. ** For pumping systems dominated by static head, multiple pumps may be a more appropriate way to efficiently vary flow No. Energy Efficiency Measure Typical % Improvement in Energy Efficiency Over Current Pumping System Efficiency Practice Expected Useful Life of Measure (Years) Typical Capital Cost (US$) % Improvement over LOW eff. base case % Improvement over MED eff. base case % Improvement over HIGH eff. base case < 50 hp >50 hp < 100 hp > 100 hp < 200 hp >200 hp < 500 hp >500 hp < 1000 hp 1.1 Upgrade System Maintenance 1.1.1 Fix Leaks, damaged seals, and packing 3.5% 2.5% 1.0% 5 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 1.1.3 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4 $6,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 $15,000 1.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 12.0% 7.0% 3.0% 4 $3,500 $3,500 $7,000 $10,500 $14,000 1.2 Eliminate Unnecessary Uses 1.2.1 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 10 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 * 1.2.2 Isolate flow paths to no-nessential or non-operating equipment 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 1.3 Matching Pump System Supply to Demand 1.3.1 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 1.4 Meet variable flow rate requirement w/o throttling or bypass** 1.4.1 Install variable speed drive 25.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10 $4,000 $9,000 $18,000 $30,000 $65,000 1.5 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% 20 $15,000 $30,000 $40,000 $65,000 $115,500 1.6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 15 $2,200 $4,500 $8,000 $21,000 $37,500 1.7 Initiate predictive maintenance program 12.0% 9.0% 3.0% 5 $8000 $8,000 $10,000 $10,000 $12,000 Table 7: Expert Input: Energy Efficiency Measures, % Efficiency Improvement and Cost for Pumping Systems M O T O R
S Y S T E M
E F F I C I E N C Y S U P P L Y C U R V E S 2 2 No Energy Efficiency Measure Typical % improvement in energy efficiency over current Compressed Air system efficiency practice Expected Useful Life of Measure (Years) Typical Capital Cost (US$) % Improvement over LOW eff. base case % Improvement over MED eff. base case % Improvement over HIGH eff. base case < 50 hp >50 hp < 100 hp >100 hp < 200 hp >200 hp < 500 hp > 500 hp < 1000 hp < 37 kW > 37kW < 75kW > 75kW < 150kW > 150kW < 375kW > 375kW < 745kW 2.1 Upgrade System Maintenance 2.1.1 Fix Leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8 1250 3000 5000 5000 5000 2.1.2 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 10 1750 2000 2000 4000 4000 2.1.3 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5 150 400 1000 2000 3000 2.2 Improve system pressure profile/reduce supply side target pressure 2.2.1 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5 1000 1250 1750 2750 3500 2.2.2 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 15 2000 3000 6000 10000 15000 2.2.3 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 5.0% 3.0% 0.5% 15 2000 3000 6000 10000 12000 2.2.4 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 10 1500 3000 5000 12000 18000 2.3 Reduce compressed air waste 2.3.1 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 20.0% 13.0% 3.0% 5 2000 4000 7000 12000 15000 2.3.2 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 12.0% 8.0% 3.0% 4 1000 1500 2000 7000 10000 2.3.3 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage * 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 10 2500 4000 6000 10000 15000 2.4 Isolate high pressure and intermittent high volume uses** 2.4.1 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 15 2000 4000 5500 8500 14000 Table 8: Expert Input: Energy Efficiency Measures, % Efficiency Improvement and Cost for Compressed Air Systems M E T H O D O L O G Y 2 3 No Typical % improvement in energy efficiency over current Compressed air system efficiency practice Expected Useful Life of Measure (Years) Typical Capital Cost (US$) Energy Efficiency Measure % Improvement over LOW eff. base case % Improvement over MED eff. base case % Improvement over HIGH eff. base case < 50 hp >50 hp < 100 hp >100 hp < 200 hp >200 hp < 500 hp > 500 hp < 1000 hp < 37 kW > 37kW < 75kW > 75kW < 150kW > 150kW < 375kW > 375kW < 745kW 2.5 Balance supply with demand and improve control strategy 2.5.1 Install sequencer 15.0% 8.0% 2.0% 10 0 5000 7500 15000 20000 2.5.2 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 20.0% 15.0% 5.0% 15 12000 20000 40000 70000 100000 2.6 Match air treatment to demand side needs 8.0% 6.0% 2.0% 10 3500 7500 10000 20000 25000 2.7 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 18.0% 13.0% 9.0% 15 12000 25000 40000 70000 120000 2.8 Initiate predictive maintenance program 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 5 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 * Eliminating artificial demand can be addressed to some extent with manual, low cost approaches; more expensive automated approaches may yield higher savings depending on the variability of system demand and other factors ** There are several ways to efficiently address a high volume intermittent uses, including booster compressors and dedicated compressors, and metered storage Note 1: Compressed Air System Heat Recovery is the only measure with the potential to address the energy lost through heat of compression (typically 80% of input energy), and thus can greatly increase energy efficiency. It was not included in these analyses because its applicability is dependent on a use for the low grade heat and it must be treated differently by adding it the base case rather than applied as a % improvement Note 2: Compressed air system problems are highly varied, therefore solutions are also variednot all captured here M O T O R
S Y S T E M
E F F I C I E N C Y S U P P L Y C U R V E S 2 4 3.1 Upgrade System Maintenance* 3.1.1 Fix Leaks and damaged seals 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5 175 325 600 1375 2650 3.1.2 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 4.5% 2.5% 0.5% 2 200 750 1000 N/A N/A 3.1.2 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 2 100 110 135 580 1090 3.1.3 Correct damper problems 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4 200 250 300 400 450 3.2 Correct System Flow Problems 3.2.1 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non-operating equipment 12.0% 8.0% 2.0% 15 1150 2250 2625 3550 4700 3.2.2 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 20 1000 2000 3000 5000 10000 3.3 Correct Fan Size/Type/Position to Increase Efficiency** 3.3.1 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 18.0% 11.0% 2.0% 20 8000 15000 25000 50000 100000 3.4 Efficiently meet variable flow requirement (w/o dampers or bypass)*** 3.4.1 Install variable speed drive 35.0% 20.0% 8.0% 10 8000 15000 30000 80000 150000 3.5 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 15 2200 4500 8000 21000 35000 3.6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5 260 260 1000 2000 5000 No Energy Efficiency Measure Typical % improvement in energy efficiency over current Fan system efficiency practice Expected Useful Life of Measure (Years) Typical Capital Cost (US$) % Improvement over LOW eff. base case % Improvement over MED eff. base case % Improvement over HIGH eff. base case < 50 hp >50 hp < 100 hp >100 hp < 200 hp >200 hp < 500 hp > 500 hp < 1000 hp < 37 kW > 37kW < 75kW > 75kW < 150kW > 150kW < 375kW > 375kW < 745kW * Vibration analysis and addressing bearing maintenance are important for system operation, but are more of a reliability issue ** Relocating a fan to the clean side of a process can increase energy efficiency, but is more of a design issue for new systems and is rarely possible in existing systems *** Use controls to shut down or slow down unnecessary fans. Table 9: Expert Input: Energy Efficiency Measures, % Efficiency Improvement and Cost for Fan Systems METHODOLOGY 3.4. Construction of Motor System Efficiency Supply Curves 3.4.1. Introduction to the Conservation Supply Curve The Conservation Supply Curve (CSC) is an analytical tool that captures both the engineering and the economic perspectives of energy conservation. The curve shows the energy conservation potential as a function of the marginal Cost of Conserved Energy. The Cost of Conserved Energy can be calculated from Equation 1. Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) = (Annualized capital cost + Annual change in O&M costs) /Annual energy savings (Eq. 1) The annualized capital cost can be calculated from Equation 2. Annualized capital cost = Capital Cost* (d/ (1-(1+d) -n ) (Eq. 2) d: discount rate, n: lifetime of the energy efficiency measure. After calculating the CCE for all energy efficiency measures, the measures are ranked in ascending order of CCE. In CSCs an energy price line is determined. All measures that fall below the energy price line are identified as "Cost-Effective". That is, saving a unit of energy for the cost- effective measures is cheaper than buying a unit of energy. On the curves, the width of each measure (plotted on the x-axis) represents the annual energy saved by that measure. The height (plotted on the y-axis) shows the measure's cost of conserved energy. The CSC gives us some very useful information. It presents the cost of conserved energy (CCE), annualized cost of energy efficiency measures, annualized energy cost saving, annualized net cost saving, and annualized energy saving by each individual technology or a group of technologies. The calculation of CCE is explained above. If dE is the energy saving by a technology/measure, then the annualized cost of the energy efficiency measure, annualized energy cost saving, and the annualized net cost saving of that technology can be calculated from: AC = dE*CCE (Eq. 3) AECS= dE*P (Eq. 4) ANC = AC - AECS = dE*(P-CCE) (Eq. 5) Where: AC: Annualized Cost of Energy Efficiency Measure (US$), AECS: Annualized Energy Cost Saving (US$), ANC: Annualized Net Cost Saving (US$), P: Energy Price, and dE: Energy Saving in CSC. For the cost-effective energy-efficiency measures in the CSC, the annual net cost saving is positive, but for the measures whose CCE is above the energy cost line, the annualized net cost saving is negative. That is, for cost-effective measures, net annual revenue results from implementing those measures from the energy cost saving, whereas for non-cost effective measures the annualized cost of implementing the measures is higher than the annualized cost saving. Thus, the annual net cost saving for non-cost effective measures is negative. However, it should be emphasized that even in the case of non-cost effective measures, the significant cost saving occurs from energy saving which is equal to dE*P as mentioned above. Therefore, from an energy policy point of view, any fiscal policy for non-cost effective energy 25 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES efficiency measures should target the annualized net cost saving of the measure which is the area between the CSC and the energy price line. Figure 3 shows a schematic of a CSC that helps the visualization of the above discussion. For measure A which is cost effective, the annual net cost saving is positive, whereas for measure B which is non-cost effective the annual net cost saving is negative. For measure B, the area between energy price line and CSC should be targeted by the fiscal policies. 3.4.2 Discount Rate In this study, a real discount rate of 10% was assumed for the analysis. However, since it is one of the key variables used in the cost of conserved energy calculation, Section 4.5 presents a sensitivity analysis of the final results with varying discount rates. It should be noted that the choice of the discount rate also depends on the purpose of the analysis and the approach (prescriptive versus descriptive) used. A prescriptive approach (also called social perspective) uses lower discount rates (4% to 10%), especially for long-term issues like climate change or public sector projects (Worrell et al. 2004). Low discount rates have the advantage of treating future generations equally to our own, but they also may cause relatively certain, near-term effects to be ignored in favor of more uncertain, long-term effects (NEPO/DANCED 1998). A descriptive approach (also called private- sector or industry perspective), however, uses relatively high discount rates between 10% and 30% in order to reflect the existence of barriers to energy efficiency investments (Worrell et al. 2004). These barriers include perceived risk, lack of information, management concerns about production and other issues, capital constraints, opportunity cost, and preference for short payback periods and high internal rates of return (Bernstein, et al. 2007 and Worrell, et al. 26 Figure 3: Schematic View of a Conservation Supply Curve (CSC) C o s t
o f
C o n s e r v e d
E n e r g y
( U S $ / G W h ) Annual energy saving (GWh/year) Energy price line (US$ P/ GWh) A B CSC dE 1 CCE 2 CCE 1 dE 2 Area that should be targeted by the fiscal policies METHODOLOGY 2000). Hence, the 10% discount rate used for these analyses is at the higher end of discount rates used from social perspective and lower end of the discount rates used from private-sector or industry perspective. The sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to the discount rate will show how the movement towards each of these two perspectives will influence the results. In addition, since the energy efficiency measures for the motor systems are cross-cutting technologies/measures, the selection of a discount rate is further influenced by the assumption of fewer barriers to the implementation of these measures compared to process-specific capital intensive technologies in each industrial sector (i.e. installation of an efficient grinding mill or kiln system in the cement industry). Thus, the lower discount rate used for these cross-cutting measures is consistent with a private-sector or industry perspective. Other industrial sector analyses use varying real discount rates. Carlos (2006) used the range of 10% to 16% discount rate in the financial analysis for cogeneration projects in Thailand. Garcia et al. (2007) used three discount rates of 12%, 15%, and 22% in three different investment scenarios for high efficiency motors in Brazil. McKinsey & Company used a 7% social discount rate for developing Conservation Supply Curves and GHG abatement cost curve for the US (McKinsey&Company, 2007 and 2009a and a 4% social discount rate for developing a GHG abatement cost curve for China (McKinsey & Company, 2009b). ICF developed an abatement cost curve for the cement industry in Brazil and Mexico in 2015 using a 10% discount rate (ICF International, 2009a, b). In the Asia Least- cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) project, 10% real discount rate is assumed for the calculation of GHG emissions abatement scenarios for various economic sectors including industry in Thailand (ADB/GEF 1998). 3.4.3. Calculation of the Annual Energy Savings The calculation and data analysis methodology used was the same for all three motor system types included in these analyses (i.e. pumping, fan, and compressed air systems). The example provided here for pumping systems is also illustrative of the methodology used for the other two systems. For the calculation of energy saving achieved by the implementation of each efficiency measure for the pumping system, the following inputs were available: The efficiency base case scenarios for pumping systems (HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW), as developed from expert input. As previously described, each country was then assigned a base case efficiency for pumping systems, based on the authors' judgment and expert consultation; For each pumping system measure, the experts provided a typical % improvement in energy efficiency over each base case efficiency scenario; Electricity use in the manufacturing sectors of each country; The percentages of the pump system electricity use as compared to the total electricity use in each manufacturing sectors studied. Using these 27 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES percentages and the electricity use of each sector, the total electricity use by the pump system in each sector was calculated. The total value of all the electricity use for the sectors studied in the given country could then be calculated and used to calculate the potential electricity savings. From the above information, the annual electricity saving from the implementation of each individual efficiency measure for the pumping system in the industry where measures are treated Individually and can be implemented regardless of the implementation of other measures can be calculated following the steps given below: 1. Annual Input energy for the pumping system (MWh/yr) = Pump system energy use in industry in the base year 2. Annual Useful energy used in the pumping system with base case efficiency = Annual Input energy for the pump (MWh/yr) * Base Case Efficiency of the pumping System 3. New system efficiency after the implementation of the efficiency measure = Base case efficiency of the pumping system* (1+ % system efficiency improvement by the implementation of the measure) 4. Annual Useful energy used in the pumping system with NEW efficiency = Annual Input energy for the pumping system (MWh/yr)* New system efficiency 5. Annual Useful energy saving = Annual Useful energy used in the pumping system with NEW efficiency - Annual Useful energy used in the pumping system with base case efficiency 6. Annual Input energy saving = Annual Useful energy saving / New system efficiency after the implementation of the efficiency measure In the procedure explained above, Input energy use is the energy that is supplied to the system as input. This is equal to the typical energy use data given for the industry/system in the statistics. The Useful energy use, however, is the energy that is converted to the actual service through the system. The Useful energy is the energy that does the work intended to be done by the system at the end use. Hence, the Useful energy use is calculated by taking into account the system efficiency and multiplying that by Input energy use. Since the system efficiency is always lower than 100%, the Useful energy use is always less than the Input energy use. In practice, the implementation of one measure can influence the efficiency gain by the next measure implemented. When one measure is implemented the base case efficiency is improved. Therefore, the efficiency improvement by the second measure will be less than if the second measure was implemented first or was considered alone. If the annual electricity saving is calculated from the implementation of each individual efficiency measure for the pumping system in the industry when measures are treated individually and can be implemented regardless of the implementation of other measures, the total saving achieved by the implementation of all measures will be very high and for some countries even higher than annual electricity use in the industry. Since this is not feasible, it was clear that the measures could not be treated as isolated actions and the resulting energy saving as a sum of these actions. 28 METHODOLOGY To overcome this problem, the methodology was refined. The measures were treated in relation with each other (as a group). In other words, the efficiency improvement by the implementation of one measure depends on the efficiency improvement achieved by the previous measures implemented. The refined method used is as follow: 1. Annual Input Energy for the Pump System (MWh/yr) = Pumping System Energy Use in Industry in the Base Year 2. Annual Useful Energy Used in the Pumping System with Base Case Efficiency = Annual Input Energy for the Pump (MWh/yr)* Base Case Efficiency of the Pumping System 3. Cumulative New System Efficiency after the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure = Base Case Efficiency of the Pumping System* (1+ Sum of the % Efficiency Improvement by the Implementation of the Measure and all the Previous Measures Implemented) 4. Cumulative Annual Useful energy used in the pumping system with NEW efficiency = Annual Input energy for the pumping system (MWh/yr) * New system efficiency 5. Cumulative Annual Useful energy saving = Annual Useful energy used in the pumping system with NEW efficiency - Annual Useful energy used in the pumping system with base case efficiency 6. Cumulative Annual Input energy saving = Annual Useful energy saving / New system efficiency after the implementation of the efficiency measure In this method, the Cumulative Electricity Saving is calculated by taking into account the additive effect of the measures, rather than treating the measures completely in isolation from each other. For instance, when calculating the Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving achieved by the implementation of measure #3 and all the previous measures (measures #1 and #2), the Sum of the % Efficiency Improvement by the Implementation of Measure Number 1, 2, and 3 is used in the above calculation. The calculation of the cumulative saving rather than individual savings is also desirable since the cumulative electricity saving will be used in the construction of the Motor System Efficiency Supply Curves. However, the ranking of the measures significantly influence the energy saving achieved by each measure. In other words, given a fixed % improvement of efficiency for each individual measure, the higher the rank of the measure, the larger the energy saving contribution of that measure to the cumulative savings. To define the ranking of the efficiency measures before calculating the cumulative energy saving from the method described above, the preliminary Cost of Conserved Electricity (CCE) was calculated (see below for the explanation on CCE calculation) for each measure assuming that the measures are independent of each other (i.e. treating them in isolation without taking into account any additive effect). Then, these measures were ranked based on their Preliminary CCE. This ranking was used to calculate the Final Cumulative annual energy saving as well as the Final CCE. 3.4.4. Calculation of the Cost of Conserved Electricity Since the capital cost data received from the experts was for the implementation of only one unit of each measure/technology, the Cost of Conserved Electricity (CCE) was calculated assuming the implementation of 29 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES only one unit of each measure under each efficiency base case, taken separately. Since each efficiency base case has a different value, calculations were performed separately for each base case (LOW, MED, HIGH). Later, the CCE was calculated under the base case scenario assigned to each country (see Table 6) and the system was used in developing the corresponding efficiency supply curve. The CCE is calculated as follows: for the analysis, as previously discussed. The lifetime of the measures were provided by the experts for each efficiency measure. Because only one type of cost (capital cost) was available for each measure, the capital cost was used for the calculation of the CCE without regard for any change in operations and maintenance (O&M) cost (given in Capital cost data was provided in bins based on a range of motor sizes, expressed in horsepower (hp). The average hp value of each range was used as a representative size in the analyses, except for the first and last category for which the boundary values are assumed. The size ranges are shown in the table below. The Annualized capital cost of implementing one unit of each measure could then be calculated using the following equations: Annualized Capital Cost = Capital Cost*CRF (Eq. 6) and Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) = (d/ (1-(1+d) -n ) (Eq. 7) d: discount rate, n: lifetime of the energy efficiency measure. The discount rate of 10% was assumed Eq. 1). Some of the measures themselves are improvement in maintenance practices. Therefore, the cost of conserved energy can be calculated from the following formula: Cost of Conserved Energy= Annualized capital cost ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Eq. 8) Annual Input Energy Savings For calculating the energy saving achieved by the implementation of one unit of each measure, it was necessary to combine the information from above concerning the cost of implementing one unit of each measure with some assumptions for the load and operation hours for the motor systems for each representative size for which the CCE is calculated. For the hours of operation, the values for each motor system type and power range from USDOE's motor market assessment report were used (US DOE, 2002). 30 Size range (hp) < 50 hp > 51 hp < 100 hp > 101 hp < 200 hp > 201 hp < 500 hp > 501 hp < 1000 hp Size range (kW) < 37 kW > 38kW < 75kW > 76kW < 150kW > 151kW < 375kW > 376kW < 746kW Size used in the analysis (hp) 50 75 150 350 750 METHODOLOGY For the load factor, the experts were asked to provide the Distribution of Industrial Motors by Part Load (part loads: 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%) for each motor system type. The following table shows the consolidate results of the experts input for this data. The annual energy saving for one unit of each measure under each base case scenario was calculated (separately) using the following approach: 1. Annual Input Energy for One Unit of System (MWh/yr) = (hp*hours Used per year* load* 0.746)/Motor Efficiency 2. Annual Useful Energy Used in One Unit of System with Base Case Efficiency = Annual Input Energy for One Unit of System (MWh/yr)* Base Case Efficiency of the Pumping System 3. New System Efficiency After the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure = Base Case Efficiency of the Pumping System* (1+ % System Efficiency Improvement by the Implementation of the Measure) 4. Annual Useful Energy Used in One Unit of System with NEW Efficiency = Annual Input Energy for One Unit of System (MWh/yr)* New System Efficiency 5. Annual Useful Energy Saving for One Unit of System = Annual Useful Energy Used in one Unit of System with NEW Efficiency - Annual Useful Energy Used in One Unit of System with Base Case Efficiency 6. Annual Input Energy Saving for One Unit of System = Annual Useful Energy Saving for One Unit of System/New System Efficiency After the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure Having the annual cost and annual electricity saving calculated above for one unit of the system, the cost of conserved electricity (CCE) could be calculated for each representative motor size (5 CCE for 5 sizes). Only one CCE value can be displayed on the Supply Curves. Therefore, the CCEs calculated for different motor sizes needed to be consolidated. To consolidate the CCEs of all power ranges for each measure, the Motor System Energy Use (GWh/Yr) by Horsepower (for each type of system, i.e. pumping, fan, compressed air) was used to calculate the weighted average CCE. One CCE resulted for each 31 Part Load (Estimated % of full load) Pump Compressed Air Fan 25% 10 20 10 50% 25 35 20 75% 50 25 50 100% 15 20 20 Total 100% 100 100% Weighted Average 68% 61% 70% Table 10: Distribution of Industrial Motors by Part Load (Experts Estimate) MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES efficiency measure under each base case scenario. Motor System Energy Use (GWh/Yr) by Horsepower was calculated for each country based on the data was provided in US DOE (2002) for the U.S. It is hoped that the availability of additional data would permit greater refinement of these assumptions for future analyses. The CCE calculated above is the Preliminary CCE since in the calculation of this CCE the additive effect is not taken into account. This Preliminary CCE was used for the ranking of the measures before the final calculation of the Cumulative Energy Saving could be done in which the additive effect of the measures is taken into account (see section 2.4.3). Once the measures are ranked based on the Preliminary CCE, we can calculate the Final CCE from the followings: 1. Annual Input Energy for One Unit of System (MWh/yr) = (hp*hours used per year* load* 0.746)/Motor Efficiency We assumed the average motor efficiency of 93% across all sizes. 2. Cumulative New System Efficiency after the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure = Base Case Efficiency of the Pumping System* (1+ Sum of the % Efficiency Improvement by the Implementation of the Measure and all the Previous Measures Implemented) However, unlike the energy saving that is shown as cumulative saving on the Supply Curve (x-axis), the CCE for each individual measure is shown separately on the supply curve. In other words, the y-axis on the supply curve shows the CCE for the individual measure. Therefore, the Cumulative Input Energy saving for one unit of system cannot be used in the calculation of Final CCE. For the calculation of Final CCE, it is necessary to determine the Individual Input Energy saving for one unit of system for each measure. This is done, for example for measure number (i) from the following equations: 3. Cumulative Annual Useful Energy used in one Unit of System with Cumulative New Efficiency after the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure (i) = Annual Input Energy for One Unit of System (MWh/yr)* Cumulative New System Efficiency after the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure (i) 4. Cumulative Annual Useful Energy Used in One Unit of System with Cumulative New Efficiency After the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure (i-1) = Annual Input Energy for One Unit of System (MWh/yr) * Cumulative New System Efficiency After the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure (i-1) 5. Individual Annual Useful Energy Saving for One unit of System for Measure (i) = Cumulative Annual Useful energy Used in One Unit of System with Cumulative New Efficiency after the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure (i) - Cumulative Annual Useful Energy Used in One Unit of System with Cumulative New Efficiency After the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure (i-1) 6. Individual Annual Input Energy Saving for One unit of System Measure (i) = Individual Annual Useful Energy Saving for One Unit of System/Cumulative Annual Useful Energy Used in One Unit of System with Cumulative New Efficiency After the Implementation of the Efficiency Measure (i) 7. Final Cost of Conserved Electricity of Measure (i) = Annualized Capital Cost of 32 METHODOLOGY Measure (i)/ Individual Annual Input Energy Saving for One Unit of System for Measure (i) The Final CCE is used for the construction of Motor Systems Efficiency Supply Curve along with the Cumulative Annual Input Energy Saving explained in section 2.4.3. It should be noted that on the Supply Curves presented in the next section, the CCE is the Final CCE for each individual measure. It should also be noted that the purpose of these analyses is to identify the cost effectiveness and to estimate the total electricity savings potential for the industrial motor systems studied. This study does not address scenario analysis based on the assumption of different penetration rates of the measures in the future, but rather seeks to identify the magnitude of the total saving potential and the associated cost. The scenario analysis and study on the penetration of the efficiency measures could be a topic for future research. Labor Adjustment Factor for the Cost of Measures Typical capital costs of installing the selected measures were acquired from several experts for each motor system type. These costs include both materials and labor. However, most of these experts are in the U.S., Canada, and European countries and based their cost estimates on the typical costs for those locations. Since most of the energy efficiency measures considered in this study are system improvement measures, a significant portion of the cost is the labor for implementing the measures. There is a large gap between the labor cost in the developed and developing countries studied in this report. To address this disparity in labor costs, a Labor Adjustment Factor (LAF) was created for the three developing countries/emerging economies, i.e. Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. This LAF was calculated for each energy efficiency measure. The first step was to ask the system experts about the share of labor cost as a fraction of the total cost in the U.S. for each energy efficiency measure analyzed for the three systems. Experts provided a range (low end and high end) for this share and the median value of the range was used for the calculation of LAF (See Table 11-13). We assumed a skilled industrial labor cost in the developed countries (U.S., EU. And Canada) equal to US$20.00/hr (US DOL, 2009), in Thailand and Vietnam equal to US$1.20/hr (Barrow, 2005; Runckel, 2005) and in Brazil equal to US$5.00/hr (US DOL, 2009). Because of the limited data available, the materials/equipment costs were not adjusted and were assumed to be equivalent across all countries studied. As previously stated, materials/equipment costs can vary widely from country to country based on import taxes, tax credits, and availability. These variations in cost would benefit from further study. The following is the procedure for the calculation of LAF: Labor cost of the measure in the developed country = Total capital cost in developed countries* share of the labor cost from the total capital cost Capital cost of the measure excluding labor cost (Materials/equipment cost)= 33 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 34 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Average Labor Cost as % of Total Costs Labor Adjustment Factor for Thailand and Vietnam Labor Adjustment Factor for Brazil 1.1.1 Fix Leaks, damaged seals, and packing 70% 0.34 0.48 1.1.2 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 85% 0.20 0.36 1.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 85% 0.20 0.36 1.2.1 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 50% 0.53 0.63 1.2.2 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment N/A N/A N/A 1.3.1 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 50% 0.53 0.63 1.4.1 Install variable speed drive 50% 0.53 0.63 1.5 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 30% 0.72 0.78 1.6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 20% 0.81 0.85 1.7 Initiate predictive maintenance program 70% 0.34 0.48 Table 11: The Share of Labor Cost from the Total Cost and Labor Adjustment Factors for Energy Efficiency Measures in Pumping Systems Total capital cost - Labor cost of the measure in the developed country Number of hours required for labor = Labor cost of the measure in the developed country / hourly rate of labor in the developed country (i.e. US$20/hr) Labor cost of the measure in the developing countries = Number of hours required for labor * hourly rate of labor in the developing country Total capital cost in developing countries = Materials/equipment cost of the measure + Labor cost of the measure in the developing country Labor Adjustment Factor (LAF) = Total capital cost in developing countries / Total capital cost in developed countries The calculated LAFs for Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil are shown in Table 11-13 for the three motor systems. The LAF was multiplied by the calculated CCE (both preliminary and final). This resulted in lower CCEs for the measures in the three developing countries compared to that of developed countries. The results after applying the LAF appear to more closely approximate to real world conditions. METHODOLOGY 35 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Average Labor Cost as % of Total Costs Labor Adjustment Factor for Thailand and Vietnam Labor Adjustment Factor for Brazil 3.1.1 Fix Leaks and damaged seals 60% 0.44 0.55 3.1.2 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 80% 0.25 0.40 3.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 70% 0.34 0.48 3.1.4 Correct damper problems 55% 0.48 0.59 3.2.1 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment 70% 0.34 0.48 3.2.2 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 50% 0.53 0.63 3.3.1 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 20% 0.81 0.85 3.4.1 Install variable speed drive 25% 0.77 0.81 3.5 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 25% 0.77 0.81 3.6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 70% 0.34 0.48 Table 13: The Share of Labor Cost from the Total Cost and Labor Adjustment Factors for Energy Efficiency Measures in Fan Systems Table 12: The Share of Labor Cost from the Total Cost and Labor Adjustment Factors for Energy Efficiency Measures in Compressed Air Systems No. Energy Efficiency Measure Average Labor Cost as % of Total Costs Labor Adjustment Factor for Thailand and Vietnam Labor Adjustment Factor for Brazil 2.1.1 Fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 70% 0.34 0.48 2.1.2 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 45% 0.58 0.66 2.1.3 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 50% 0.53 0.63 2.2.1 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs 70% 0.34 0.48 2.2.2 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 60% 0.44 0.55 2.2.3 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 40% 0.62 0.70 2.2.4 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 50% 0.53 0.63 2.3.1 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 40% 0.62 0.70 2.3.2 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 60% 0.44 0.55 2.3.3 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage 30% 0.72 0.78 2.4.1 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 30% 0.72 0.78 2.5.1 Install sequencer 40% 0.62 0.70 2.5.2 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 35% 0.67 0.74 2.6 Match air treatment to demand side needs 30% 0.72 0.78 2.7 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 35% 0.67 0.74 2.8 Initiate predictive maintenance program N/A N/A N/A MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 36 Results and Discussion 4 Based on the methodology explained in Chapter 3, an Efficiency Supply Curves were constructed for the pumping, fan and compressed air systems for the industrial sector in six studied countries, to separately capture the cost-effective and total technical potential for electricity efficiency improvement in these industrial motor systems. Furthermore, the CO2 emission reduction potential associated with the electricity savings was calculated. It should be noted that these potentials are the total existing potentials for the energy efficiency improvement in the studied motor systems in the base year. In other words, the potential presented here is for the 100% penetration rate. The authors are aware that 100% penetration rate is not likely and, in any event, values approaching a high penetration rate would only be possible over a period of time. Although conducting the scenario analysis by assuming different penetration rates for the energy efficiency measures was beyond the scope of this study, it could be the subject of a follow up study. 4.1. Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curves Figure 4 to Figure 9 show the Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curves for the six countries/region studied. The name of the measures related to each number on the supply curve is given in the following table each figure along with the cumulative annual electricity saving potential, final CCE of each measure, cumulative annual primary energy saving potential, and cumulative CO2 emission reduction potential (Tables 14-25). In the tables, the energy efficiency measures that are shaded in lighter color are cost- effective (i.e. their CCE is less than the unit price of electricity) and the efficiency measures that are shaded in darker color are not cost effective. As can be seen from the pumping system efficiency supply curves, in the developed countries (U.S., Canada, and EU) out of 10 energy efficiency measures only 3 to 5 measures are cost effective, i.e. their cost of conserved energy is less than the average unit price of electricity in those countries. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 37 On the other hand, in the developing countries, more energy efficiency measures fall below the electricity price line (7 to 9 measures). This is mainly because of the application of labor adjustment factor to the cost of the measures for the developing countries which will reduce the CCE significantly. "Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment" is the most cost-effective measure for the pumping system across all studied countries followed by "Install variable speed drive" in U.S. EU, Canada, and Brazil, while the second most cost-effective measure in Thailand and Vietnam is "Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping". On the other hand, "Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers" is ranked last in all countries and has the highest CCE except in Thailand and Vietnam in which "Replace pump with more energy efficient type" has the highest CCE. While both measures have substantial energy savings potential, they are relatively more expensive to implement. Again, the differences in their position in the CCE ranking can be attributed to the application of the labor adjustment factor, with labor comprising a higher proportion of the cost for removing sediment from piping than for a pump replacement. Furthermore, tables show that in all countries studied except Vietnam, the total technical energy saving potential is around 45% of the total pumping system energy use in the base year for the industries analyzed. The reason for this similarity is that all countries except Vietnam fall into the MEDIUM base case efficiency (see Table 6). Because Vietnam falls into LOW base case efficiency (see Table 6), the share of total technical energy efficiency potential compared to the total pumping system energy use is higher than that of the other five countries/region, at approximately 57%. For cost-effective potential, however, the story is different. The three developed countries have the cost-effective potential of 27% - 29% of the total pumping system energy use in the base year for the industries analyzed. Although Thailand and Brazil have a MEDIUM base case efficiency (similar to the developed countries), their cost-effective potential is higher - equal to 36% and 43%, respectively - due to the application of a labor adjustment factor in the calculation of CCE. As a result, the CCE is lower, thus allowing more measures to fall below the electricity price line. For Vietnam, the cost-effective potential is much higher than other countries (49%) due to the combination of a LOW efficiency baseline and the application of labor adjustment factor. The relative cost-effectiveness of the pumping system energy efficiency measures across all countries are generally consistent with what could be expected based on field experience. There are some interesting findings. For example, replacing either the pump or the motor with a more energy efficient type, a commonly implemented measure, is frequently not cost-effective. There are two notable findings that are not consistent with what one might expect based on field experience. First, the relative cost effectiveness of a preventive maintenance program is much lower for pumping systems than for compressed air or fan systems, which may warrant further investigation. Second, removing scale from heat exchangers is often cost- effective for cooling loops, a common pumping application, as it can reduce the tendency to pump excess fluid in an attempt to overcome the inability of a compromised heat exchanger to maintain design temperature, thus reducing pump operating time. The relatively low cost effectiveness result for this measure is an indicator of the limitations of these analyses, which are by necessity based on a generalization of the benefits of each energy efficiency measure across a wide variety of system type and operating conditions. While this lack of granularity may be suitable to support policymaking needs, it is no substitute for individualized assessments of motor system opportunities. MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 38 Figure 4: US Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Pump System Efficiency Supply Curve for U.S. Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for U.S Industr in 2008: 70.1 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 36,148 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 54,023 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 39 Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for pumping system in US industry (GWh/yr) 36,148 54,023 Share of saving from the total pumping system energy use in studied industries in US in 2008 29% 43% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in US in 2008 4% 6% Annual primary energy saving potential for pumping system in US industry (TJ/yr) 396,905 593,171 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from US industry (kton CO2 /yr) 21,786 32,559 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment 10,589 0.0 116,265 6,382 2 Install variable speed drive 23,295 44.5 255,784 14,040 3 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 33,279 57.0 365,405 20,057 4 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 36,148 65.7 396,905 21,786 5 Fix leaks, damaged seals, and packing 37,510 84.1 411,855 22,607 6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 39,084 116.9 429,138 23,555 7 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 42,523 126.3 466,906 25,628 8 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 48,954 132.2 537,516 29,504 9 Initiate predictive maintenance program 52,302 189.0 574,280 31,522 10 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 54,023 330.9 593,171 32,559 Table 14: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Pumping System Efficiency Measures in the US Ranked by their Final CCE Table 15: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for US Industrial Pumping Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 40 Table 16: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for the Pumping System Efficiency Measures in Canada Ranked by their Final CCE Figure 5: Canada's Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Pump System Efficiency Supply Curve for Canada's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Canada's Indus in 2008: 57.5 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 9,929 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 16,118 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non-operating equipment 3,159 0.0 39,357 1,571 2 Install variable speed drive 6,950 44.2 86,586 3,456 3 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 9,929 55.5 123,694 4,937 4 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 10,785 64.5 134,357 5,363 5 Fix leaks, damaged seals, and packing 11,191 81.4 139,418 5,565 6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 11,661 116.2 145,269 5,798 7 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 12,687 123.2 158,054 6,308 8 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 14,606 129.1 181,956 7,262 9 Initiate predictive maintenance program 15,605 182.0 194,401 7,759 10 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 16,118 320.3 200,796 8,014 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 41 Table 17: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for the Canada's Industrial Pumping System Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for pumping system in Canadian industry (GWh/yr) 9,929 16,118 Share of saving from the total pumping system energy use in studied industries in Canada in 2008 27% 45% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Canada in 2008 6% 9% Annual primary energy saving potential for pumping system in Canadian Industry (TJ/yr) 123,694 200,796 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Canadian industry (kton CO2 /yr) 4,937 8,014 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 42 Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Pump System Efficiency Supply Curve for EU Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for EU Industry in 2007: 107.8 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 26,921 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 38,773 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 Figure 6: EU's Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curve * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the regional level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Table 18: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Pumping System Efficiency Measures in EU Ranked by their Final CCE No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non- operating equipment 7,600 0.0 71,406 3,313 2 Install variable speed drive 16,719 43.7 157,094 7,290 3 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 23,885 59.3 224,420 10,414 4 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 25,944 76.6 243,767 11,312 5 Fix leaks, damaged seals, and packing 26,921 92.6 252,948 11,738 6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 28,051 115.0 263,563 12,230 7 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 33,085 137.1 310,866 14,425 8 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 35,135 142.8 330,125 15,319 9 Initiate predictive maintenance program 37,538 223.1 352,704 16,367 10 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 38,773 383.7 364,306 16,905 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 43 Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for pumping system in EU's Industry (GWh/yr) 26,921 38,773 Share of saving from the total pumping system energy use in studied industries in EU in 2008 30% 44% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in EU in 2008 5% 7% Annual primary energy saving potential for pumping system in EU's Industry (TJ/yr) 252,948 364,306 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from EU's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 11,738 16,905 Table 19: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for the EU's Industrial Pumping Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 44 Figure 7: Thailand's Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curve No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non- operating equipment 678 0.0 6,823 352 2 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 1,084 22.0 10,905 562 3 Install variable speed drive 1,808 24.9 18,194 938 4 Fix Leaks, damaged seals, and packing 1,913 30.6 19,251 993 5 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 2,469 35.5 24,849 1,282 6 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 2,631 45.1 26,474 1,365 7 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 2,782 69.1 27,997 1,444 8 Initiate predictive maintenance program 3,032 75.0 30,510 1,574 9 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 3,109 107.3 31,289 1,614 10 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 3,459 112.4 34,809 1,795 Table 20: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Pumping System Efficiency Measures in Thailand Ranked by their Final CCE Cost effective energy saving potential 0 30 60 90 120 150 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Pump System Efficiency Supply Curve for Thailand's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Thailand's Industry in 2008: 74.6 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 2782 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 3459 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 45 Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for pumping system in Thai Industry (GWh/yr) 2,782 3,459 Share of saving from the total pumping system energy use in studied industries in Thailand in 2008 36% 45% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Thailand in 2008 5% 6% Annual primary energy saving potential for pumping system in Thai Industry (TJ/yr) 27,997 34,809 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Thai Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1,444 1,795 Table 21: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Education Potential for Thailand's Industrial Pumping Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 46 Figure 8: Vietnam's Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curve * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r ic i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential GWh/yr) Pump System Efficiency Supply Curve for Vietnam's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Vietnam's Industry in 2008: 53.4 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 1693 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 1984 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment 563 0.0 8,040 276 2 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 819 14.5 11,694 401 3 Install variable speed drive 1,226 17.7 17,514 601 4 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 1,355 24.3 19,354 664 5 Fix leaks, damaged seals, and packing 1,396 27.5 19,947 684 6 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 1,604 33.6 22,917 786 7 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 1,693 43.3 24,180 829 8 Initiate predictive maintenance program 1,788 70.6 25,539 876 9 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 1,824 81.4 26,061 894 10 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 1,984 86.7 28,347 972 Table 22: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Pumping System Efficiency Measures in Vietnam Ranked by their Final CCE RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 47 Table 23: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Vietnam's Industrial Pumping Systems Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for pumping system in Vietnam's Industry (GWh/yr) 1,693 1,984 Share of saving from the total pumping system energy use in studied industries in Vietnam in 2008 49% 57% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Vietnam in 2008 6% 7% Annual primary energy saving potential for pumping system in Vietnam's Industry (TJ/yr) 24,180 28,347 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Vietnam's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 829 972 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 48 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non- operating equipment 899 0.0 10,030 131 2 Install variable speed drive 1,977 27.8 22,066 288 3 Fix Leaks, damaged seals, and packing 2,132 36.2 23,797 311 4 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements 2,949 37.2 32,906 430 5 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps 3,184 44.7 35,530 464 6 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping 3,487 47.6 38,919 508 7 Initiate predictive maintenance program 3,840 87.3 42,850 560 8 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 3,949 109.4 44,066 576 9 Replace pump with more energy efficient type 4,439 110.2 49,543 647 10 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers 4,585 128.5 51,172 669 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 9: Brazil's Pumping System Efficiency Supply Curve Table 24: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Pumping System Efficiency Measures in Brazil Ranked by their Final CCE Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Pump System Efficiency Supply Curve for Brazil's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Brazil's Industry in 2008: 115.3 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 4439 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 4585 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 49 No. Energy efficiency measure US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil 1.1.1 Fix leaks, damaged seals, and packing X X X X 1.1.2 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers X X 1.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping X X X 1.2.1 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps X X X X X 1.2.2 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non-operating equipment X X X X X X 1.3.1 Trim or change impeller to match output to requirements X X X X X X 1.4.1 Install variable speed drive X X X X X X 1.5 Replace pump with more energy efficient type X 1.6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type X 1.7 Initiate predictive maintenance program X Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for pumping system in Brazil's Industry (GWh/yr) 4,439 4,585 Share of saving from the total pumping system energy use in studied industries in Brazil in 2008 43% 45% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Brazil in 2008 3% 3% Annual primary energy saving potential for pumping system in Brazil's Industry (TJ/yr) 49,543 51,172 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Brazil's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 647 669 Table 25: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Brazil's Industrial Pumping Systems Table 26: Cost-effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measure for Pumping Systems in Each Country (Note: Cost Effective Measures are Marked with "X") Table 26 below shows the snapshot of which energy efficiency measure for pumping system is cost-effective for each country for a quick comparison 4.2. Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curves Figure 10 to Figure 15 depict the Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curves for the six countries/region studied. The name of the measures related to each number on the supply curve is given in the table below each figure along with the cumulative annual electricity saving potential, final CCE of each measure, cumulative annual primary energy saving potential, and cumulative CO2 emission reduction potential (Tables 27-38). In the tables, the energy efficiency measures that are shaded in lighter color are cost- effective (i.e. their CCE is less than the unit price of electricity) and the efficiency measures that are shaded in darker color are not cost-effective. As can be seen from the compressed air system efficiency supply curves and the tables, "Fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan" and "predictive maintenance program" are the top two most cost-effective measures for the compressed air system across studied countries, except for the EU for which "sequencer" displaces "predictive maintenance program" in the top two. On the other hand, "Size replacement compressor to meet demand" is ranked last with the highest CCE across all countries studied. Furthermore, tables show that for Canada and the EU, each with a MEDIUM base case efficiency, the total technical energy saving potential is well-aligned at 41% and 38%, respectively, of the total compressed air system energy use in the base year for the industries analyzed. Although the U.S. base case efficiency for compressed air systems is also MEDIUM, the total technical potential is only 29% of the total compressed air system energy use for the industries analyzed based on 2008 data. A major reason for this difference seems to be in the relative share of energy use by compressed air system larger than 1000 hp, excluded from these analyses, as compared to the total energy use of compressed air systems, which includes these larger systems. This share in the U.S. is 44%, whereas in Canada and EU is only 22% and 19%, respectively (see Table 4). This difference in technical potential seems to occur because the savings potential is divided by the total energy use of the compressed air system, resulting in a lower percentage for the total technical potential (Table 28a) due to the proportionally larger exclusion of the "systems bigger than 1000 hp from the total energy use" from U.S compressed air energy use. An investigation was undertaken to validate or refute the theory about the effect of exclusion of "systems bigger than 1000 hp from the total energy use" in the construction of efficiency supply curve for the compressed air system in the U.S. For this purpose, compressed air systems bigger than 1000 hp were included in the analyses and a new supply curve was developed. The result is presented in Table 28b. Inclusion of compressed air systems greater than 1000 hp resulted in an increase in the total technical energy saving potential from 29% to 52%, thus supporting the theory. A US technical potential of 29% appears to be understated. For Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil with LOW base case efficiency (see Table 6), the share of total technical energy efficiency potential for industrial compressed air MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 50 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 51 systems relative to total compressed air energy use is higher than that of developed countries. Within this group, this share is relatively lower for Brazil than for Thailand and Vietnam, most likely for the same reason for the relative difference given above for the U.S. For both the U.S. and Brazil, there are relatively higher proportions of large compressed air systems due to the mix of industries. The three developed countries have the cost-effective potential of 21% - 28% of the total compressed air system energy use in the base year for the industries analyzed compared to the three developing countries with a cost-effective potential of 42% - 47%. These results can be attributed for two reasons. First, the three developing countries have a LOW efficiency baseline; hence the percentage improvement of efficiency over the base case efficiency for each measure is higher, resulting in a correspondingly lower CCE. Second reason is the application of labor adjustment factor in the calculation of CCE for Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil, which also lowers the CCE, thus allowing more measures to fall below the electricity price line. It should be noted that electricity price is one of the key factors determining the cost-effectiveness of a measure in a country. The higher the electricity price, the greater the number of measures that fall below the energy price line and thus become cost-effective. As expected, most of the compressed air system energy efficiency measures identified as cost effective require limited capital investment. Leaks are routinely cited as the most cost-effective measure among compressed air system experts, but it is extremely important to note that the energy savings for this measure are contingent on the adjustment of compressor controls once the leaks are fixed. Moreover, the useful life of this measure is based on the implementation of an ongoing leak management program. Without either of these related actions, this measure would be significantly less cost-effective. This is worth mentioning because they are often omitted, thus producing a disappointing outcome. The importance of looking at the demand side of the system and not just the operation of the compressor room is supported by the cost-effectiveness of improving end use efficiency, eliminating inappropriate compressed air uses, and addressing restrictive end use drops and connections and faulty filter-regulators- lubricators, or FRLs. While the installation of a sequencer for systems with more than one compressor is a highly cost-effective measure in most situations, sizing a replacement compressor to meet demand is typically not cost-effective. As with pumping systems, there are limitations of these analyses, which are by necessity based on a generalization of the benefits of each energy efficiency measure across a wide variety of system type and operating conditions. For instance, there are situations in which correcting a pressure drop across compressed air treatment equipment or replacing a compressor intake filter can be highly cost-effective and may result in the ability to turn off a compressor or the avoidance of premature equipment failure. While this lack of granularity may be suitable to support policymaking needs, it is no substitute for individualized assessments of motor system opportunities. MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 52 Table 27: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Compressed Air System Efficiency Measures in US Ranked by their Final CCE * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 10: US Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Compressed air System Efficiency Supply Curve for U.S. Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for U.S Industry in 2008: 70.1 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 12 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 20,334 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 28,403 GWh/yr 13 14 4 2 1 11 3 16 15 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 7,073 14.4 77,658 4,263 2 Initiate predictive maintenance program 9,037 33.4 99,230 5,447 3 Install sequencer 11,862 35.3 130,239 7,149 4 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 14,353 40.4 157,600 8,651 5 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 17,832 49.9 195,796 10,747 6 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs 18,783 55.7 206,242 11,321 7 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage 20,334 62.0 223,267 12,255 8 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 20,958 75.7 230,116 12,631 9 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 21,161 87.3 232,343 12,753 10 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 21,755 105.5 238,864 13,111 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 53 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 11 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 22,328 108.8 245,156 13,457 12 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 22,881 110.9 251,229 13,790 13 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 23,415 129.7 257,095 14,112 14 Match air treatment to demand side needs 24,431 136.6 268,248 14,724 15 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 26,699 164.1 293,156 16,091 16 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 28,403 212.7 311,865 17,118 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for compressed air system in US Industry (excludes systems larger than 1000hp) (GWh/yr) 20,334 28,403 Share of saving from the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries in US in 2008 21% 29% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in US in 2008 2% 3% Annual primary energy saving potential for compressed air system in US Industry (TJ/yr) 223,267 311,865 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from US Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 12,255 17,118 Table 28a:Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for US Industrial Compressed Air Systems Excluding Systems Larger than 1000 hp Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for compressed air system in US Industry (includes systems larger than 1000hp) (GWh/yr) 36,535 51,033 Share of saving from the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries in US in 2008 38% 52% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in US in 2008 4% 6% Annual primary energy saving potential for compressed air system in US Industry (TJ/yr) 401,154 560,342 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from US Industry (kton CO2/yr) 22,019 30,757 Table 28b: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for US Industrial Compressed Air Systems, Including Systems Larger than 1000 hp MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 54 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 11. Canada's Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Compressed air System Efficiency Supply Curve for Canada's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Canada's Industry in 2008: 57.5 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 12 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 4707 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 7498 GWh/yr 13 14 4 2 1 11 3 16 15 Table 29: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Compressed Air System Efficiency Measures in Canada Ranked by their Final CCE No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 1,867 15.1 23,258 928 2 Initiate predictive maintenance program 2,386 33.7 29,719 1,186 3 Install sequencer 3,131 36.0 39,006 1,557 4 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 3,789 40.4 47,201 1,884 5 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 4,707 51.0 58,640 2,340 6 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs 4,958 57.9 61,769 2,465 7 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage 5,368 64.3 66,868 2,669 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 55 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 8 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 5,532 78.8 68,919 2,751 9 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 5,586 86.9 69,586 2,777 10 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 5,743 107.3 71,539 2,855 11 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 5,894 113.2 73,424 2,931 12 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 6,040 113.9 75,242 3,003 13 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 6,181 130.9 76,999 3,073 14 Match air treatment to demand side needs 6,449 140.6 80,339 3,207 15 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 7,048 166.9 87,799 3,504 16 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 7,498 219.8 93,403 3,728 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for compressed air system in Canada's Industry (GWh/yr) 4,707 7,498 Share of saving from the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries in Canada in 2008 26% 41% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Canada in 2008 3% 4% Annual primary energy saving potential for compressed air system in Canada's Industry (TJ/yr) 58,640 93,403 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Canada's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 2,340 3,728 Table 30: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Canada's Industrial Compressed Air Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 56 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the regional level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 12: EU's Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Compressed air System Efficiency Supply Curve for EU Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for EU Industry in 2007: 107.3 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 12 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 18,519 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 24,857 GWh/yr 13 14 4 2 1 11 3 16 15 Table 31: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Compressed Air System Efficiency Measures in EU Ranked by their Final CCE No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix Leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 6,190 17.0 58,158 2,699 2 Install sequencer 8,874 31.7 83,375 3,869 3 Initiate predictive maintenance program 10,381 36.9 97,535 4,526 4 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 12,561 44.1 118,026 5,477 5 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 15,606 56.3 146,631 6,804 6 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs 16,438 68.5 154,454 7,167 7 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage 17,795 73.0 167,204 7,759 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 57 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 8 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 17,980 87.6 168,935 7,839 9 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 18,519 96.2 174,001 8,074 10 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 19,039 121.5 178,885 8,301 11 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 19,540 124.8 183,596 8,519 12 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 20,024 129.1 188,144 8,730 13 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 20,492 139.9 192,538 8,934 14 Match air treatment to demand side needs 21,381 154.9 200,889 9,322 15 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 23,366 184.7 219,543 10,188 16 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 24,857 238.8 233,554 10,838 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for compressed air system in EU's Industry (GWh/yr) 18,519 24,857 Share of saving from the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries in EU in 2008 28% 38% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in EU in 2008 3% 4% Annual primary energy saving potential for compressed air system in EU's Industry (TJ/yr) 174,001 233,554 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from EU's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 8,074 10,838 Table 32: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for the EU's Industrial Compressed Air Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 58 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 13. Thailand's Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r i c it y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Compressed air System Efficiency Supply Curve for Thailand's Industry 15 Average Unit Price of Electricity for Thailand's Industry in 2008: 74.6 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 12 Cost-effective electricity saving potential: 3741 GWh/yr 13 14 4 2 1 11 3 16 Technical electricity saving potential: 4381 GWh/yr No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Initiate predictive maintenance program 641 4.0 6,451 333 2 Fix Leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 1,627 5.4 16,376 845 3 Install sequencer 2,189 13.2 22,023 1,136 4 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 2,560 15.4 25,763 1,329 5 Address restrictive end use drops and con- nections, faulty FRLs 2,699 21.6 27,158 1,401 6 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 2,752 24.6 27,693 1,428 7 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 3,219 30.3 32,396 1,671 8 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 3,321 41.8 33,416 1,724 Table 33: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Compressed Air System Efficiency Measures in Thailand Ranked by their Final CCE RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 59 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 9 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 3,398 49.5 34,194 1,764 10 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage 3,578 50.2 36,006 1,857 11 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 3,662 55.2 36,846 1,900 12 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 3,741 62.4 37,647 1,942 13 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 3,817 75.9 38,411 1,981 14 Match air treatment to demand side needs 3,932 111.6 39,563 2,041 15 Improve trim compressor part load efficien- cy; i.e. variable speed drive 4,185 123.9 42,116 2,172 16 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 4,381 155.5 44,083 2,274 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for compressed air system in Thai Industry (GWh/yr) 3,741 4,381 Share of saving from the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries in Thailand in 2008 47% 55% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in EU in 2008 6% 7% Annual primary energy saving potential for compressed air system in Thai Industry (TJ/yr) 37,647 44,083 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Thai Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1,942 2,274 Table 34: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Thailand's Industrial Compressed Air Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 60 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 14: Vietnam's Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r i c it y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Compressed air System Efficiency Supply Curve for Vietnam's Industry 15 Average Unit Price of Electricity for Vietnam's Industry in 2008: 53.4 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 12 Technical electricity saving potential: 1970 GWh/yr 13 14 4 2 1 11 3 16 Cost-effective electricity saving potential: 1609 GWh/yr No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Initiate predictive maintenance program 288 4.0 4,119 141 2 Fix Leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 732 5.4 10,455 359 3 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 938 13.6 13,400 460 4 Install sequencer 1,151 15.0 16,448 564 5 Address restrictive end use drops and con- nections, faulty FRLs 1,214 20.9 17,339 595 6 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 1,238 24.8 17,680 606 7 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 1,448 30.0 20,683 709 8 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 1,493 40.1 21,334 732 9 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 1,528 48.7 21,831 749 Table 35: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Compressed Air System Efficiency Measures in Vietnam Ranked by their Final CCE RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 61 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 10 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage 1,609 49.1 22,987 788 11 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 1,647 54.8 23,524 807 12 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 1,682 61.3 24,035 824 13 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 1,717 74.7 24,523 841 14 Match air treatment to demand side needs 1,768 110.1 25,259 866 15 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 1,882 122.3 26,888 922 16 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 1,970 153.9 28,144 965 Table 35: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Compressed Air System Efficiency Measures in Vietnam Ranked by their Final CCE Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for compressed air system in Vietnam's Industry (GWh/yr) 1,609 1,970 Share of saving from the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries in Vietnam in 2008 47% 55% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Vietnam in 2008 6% 7% Annual primary energy saving potential for compressed air system in Vietnam's Industry (TJ/yr) 22,987 28,144 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Vietnam's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 788 965 Table 36: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Vietnam's Industrial Compressed Air Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 62 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 15: Brazil's Compressed Air System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 50 100 150 200 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E l e c t r i c i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Compressed air System Efficiency Supply Curve for Brazil's Industry 15 Average Unit Price of Electricity for Brazil's Industry in 2008: 115.3 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 12 Technical electricity saving potential: 6762 GWh/yr 13 14 4 2 1 11 3 16 Cost-effective electricity saving potential: 6069 GWh/yr No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan 1,814 6.1 20,247 265 2 Initiate predictive maintenance program 2,512 7.4 28,034 366 3 Install sequencer 3,378 15.6 37,701 493 4 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. 3,952 17.9 44,105 576 5 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs 4,166 25.1 46,493 607 6 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter 4,248 28.1 47,408 619 7 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses 4,970 30.4 55,459 725 8 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type 5,126 39.5 57,206 747 Table 37: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Compressed Air System Efficiency Measures in Brazil Ranked by their Final CCE RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 63 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 9 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage 5,416 46.2 60,436 790 10 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss 5,523 58.1 61,639 805 11 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping 5,652 60.0 63,077 824 12 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment 5,775 62.0 64,448 842 13 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery 5,892 72.0 65,756 859 14 Match air treatment to demand side needs 6,069 107.7 67,729 885 15 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 6,461 121.9 72,099 942 16 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 6,762 154.4 75,466 986 Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for compressed air system in Brazil's Industry (GWh/yr) 6,069 6,762 Share of saving from the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries in Brazil in 2008 42% 47% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Brazil in 2008 4% 5% Annual primary energy saving potential for compressed air system in Brazil's Industry (TJ/yr) 67,729 75,466 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Brazil's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 885 986 Table 38: Total Annual cost-Effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Brazil's Industrial Compressed Air Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 64 Table 39: Cost-effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measure for Compressed Air Systems in Each Country No. Energy efficiency measure US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil 2.1.1 Fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan X X X X X X 2.1.2 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type X X X X 2.1.3 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter X X X X 2.2.1 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs X X X X X 2.2.2 Reconfigure branch header piping to reduce critical pressure loss X X X 2.2.3 Correct excessive pressure drops in main line distribution piping X X 2.2.4 Correct excessive supply side pressure drop; i.e., treatment equipment X X 2.3.1 Eliminate inappropriate compressed air uses X X X X X X 2.3.2 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. X X X X X X 2.3.3 Eliminate artificial demand with pressure optimization/control/storage X X X X X 2.4.1 Install dedicated storage with metered recovery X 2.5.1 Install sequencer X X X X X X 2.5.2 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency; i.e. variable speed drive 2.6 Match air treatment to demand side needs X 2.7 Size replacement compressor to meet demand 2.8 Initiate predictive maintenance program X X X X X X Table 39 below shows the snapshot of which energy efficiency measure for compressed air system is cost- effective for each country for a quick comparison 4.3. Fan System Efficiency Supply Curves Figure 16 to Figure 21 show the Fan System Efficiency Supply Curves for the six countries/region studied. As can be seen from the fan system efficiency supply curves and the tables below them, "Correct damper problems", "Fix leaks and damaged seals" and "Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment" are the top three most cost- effective measures for fan systems across the studied countries. "Replace motor with more energy efficient type" and "Replace oversized fans with more efficient type" are the least cost-effective across all countries studied. Tables 40 - 51 show that U.S., Canada and EU with MEDIUM base case efficiency have a total technical energy saving potential of 27% - 30% as compared with RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 65 total fan system energy use in the base year for the industries analyzed. Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil, with LOW base case efficiency (see Table 6), have a higher percentage of total energy saving technical potential (40% - 46%) as compared with total fan system energy use in the base year for the industries analyzed. This is because these three developing countries have the LOW efficiency base case, hence the percentage improvement of efficiency over the base case efficiency for each measure is higher, resulting in higher technical saving potential. In the tables, the energy efficiency measures that are shaded in lighter color are cost-effective (i.e. their CCE is less than the unit price of electricity) and the efficiency measures that are shaded in darker color are not cost-effective. The three developed countries also have a lower cost-effective potential of 14% - 28% of total fan system energy use in the base year for the industries analyzed, as compared to the cost-effective potential of 40% - 46% for the developing countries. There are two reasons for this. First, the three developing countries have the LOW efficiency baseline; hence the percentage improvement of efficiency over the baseline efficiency for each measure is higher for these three countries, resulting in lower CCE. Second, the application of labor adjustment factor in the calculation of CCE for Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil reduced the CCE; thus allowing more measures to fall below the electricity price line. Another point to highlight is the difference between the cost-effective energy saving potential for fan systems in the U.S. and Canada. The main reason for this is that the cost-effectiveness of measure number 8 (install variable speed drive or VSD). This measure has the highest energy saving potential and is marginally cost- effective in U.S., but not cost-effective in Canada. This variation is the result of the difference in average electricity price for industry in these two countries. The relatively higher cost of electricity in U.S means that VSDs fall below the energy price line in the supply curve and are cost-effective. While field experience in Canada would support the cost- effectiveness of VSDs in specific industrial facilities, studying this measure using national averages illustrates the important role of the electricity price in cost- effectiveness of a measure both within and across countries. There is less variation in the cost effectiveness of the fan system measures analyzed than in the pumping and compressed air system measures. Most fan system measures analyzed are cost-effective in all countries studied. In addition, for Thailand and Brazil all fan system measures are cost-effective. Potential causes for this outcome are a combination of the fact that the fan system for these two countries are in LOW base case, the application of labor adjustment factor, and the higher electricity cost compared to Vietnam, which also has the LOW base case and labor adjustment factor. As with pumping and compressed air systems, the larger capital investments attributed to equipment replacement (fans, motors) with more energy efficient types, resulted in these measures appearing as the least cost effective of the ten measures analyzed. MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 66 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 16: US Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r i c it y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve for U.S. Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for U.S Industry in 2008: 70.1 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 15,432 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 18,451 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Correct damper problems 1,448 9.5 15,902 873 2 Fix Leaks and damaged seals 2,815 10.6 30,904 1,696 3 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non- operating equipment 6,106 11.3 67,049 3,680 4 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 7,939 16.7 87,171 4,785 5 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 8,459 22.5 92,882 5,098 6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 9,133 26.9 100,280 5,504 7 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 9,945 52.9 109,193 5,994 8 Install variable speed drive 15,432 65.6 169,438 9,300 9 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 17,850 81.9 195,988 10,758 10 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 18,451 104.9 202,592 11,120 Table 40: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Fan System Efficiency Measures in US Ranked by their Final CCE RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 67 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for fan system in US Industry (GWh/yr) 15,432 18,451 Share of saving from the total fan system energy use in studied industries in US in 2008 25% 30% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in US in 2008 2% 2% Annual primary energy saving potential for fan system in US Industry (TJ/yr) 169,438 202,592 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from US Industry (kton CO2/yr) 9,300 11,120 Table 41: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for US Industrial Fan Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 68 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Fan System Efficiency Measures in Canada Ranked by their Final CCE Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2/yr) 1 Correct damper problems 266 9.0 3,311 132 2 Fix Leaks and damaged seals 517 10.4 6,434 257 3 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non- operating equipment 1,121 10.8 13,960 557 4 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 1,457 16.2 18,150 724 5 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 1,552 22.2 19,339 772 6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 1,676 26.6 20,879 833 7 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 1,825 52.7 22,735 907 8 Install variable speed drive 2,832 64.8 35,278 1,408 9 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 3,276 79.9 40,806 1,629 10 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 3,386 102.9 42,181 1,684 Table 42: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for the Fan System Efficiency Measures in Canada Ranked by their Final CCE * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 17: Canada's Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r i c it y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve for Canada's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Canada's Industry in 2008: 57.5 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 1825 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 3386 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 69 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for fan system in Canada's Industry (GWh/yr) 1,825 3,386 Share of saving from the total fan system energy use in studied industries in Canada in 2008 14% 27% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Canada in 2008 1% 2% Annual primary energy saving potential for fan system in Canada's Industry (TJ/yr) 22,735 42,181 annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Canada's Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 907 1,684 Table 43: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Canada's Industrial Fan Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 70 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the regional level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 18: EU's Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r i c it y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve for EU Industry Cost-effective electricity saving potential: 12,590 GWh/yr Average Unit Price of Electricity for EU Industry in 2007: 107.8 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Technical electricity saving potential: 13,015 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 Table 44: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Fan System Efficiency Measures in EU Ranked by their Final CCE No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix Leaks and damaged seals 1,022 11.1 9,598 445 2 Correct damper problems 1,985 11.6 18,653 866 3 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non- operating equipment 4,307 13.0 40,470 1,878 4 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 5,600 18.5 52,616 2,442 5 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 5,967 25.8 56,064 2,602 6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 6,442 28.2 60,529 2,809 7 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 7,015 49.6 65,909 3,058 8 Install variable speed drive 10,885 69.7 102,272 4,746 9 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 12,590 89.8 118,298 5,489 10 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 13,015 112.5 122,284 5,674 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 71 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for fan system in EU's Industry (GWh/yr) 12,590 13,015 Share of saving from the total fan system energy use in studied industries in EU in 2008 28% 29% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in EU in 2008 2% 2% Annual primary energy saving potential for fan system in EU's Industry (TJ/yr) 118,298 122,284 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from EU's Industry (kton CO2/yr) 5,489 5,674 Table 45: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for the EU's Industrial Fan Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 72 * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 19: Thailand's Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 emission reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix Leaks and damaged seals 173 2.9 1,743 90 2 Isolate flow paths to nonessential or non- operating equipment 529 3.1 5,319 274 3 Correct damper problems 656 4.2 6,602 340 4 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 882 5.4 8,875 458 5 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 933 6.1 9,391 484 6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 992 7.0 9,984 515 7 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 1,076 7.6 10,828 558 8 Install variable speed drive 1,583 35.3 15,926 821 9 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 1,639 56.0 16,495 851 10 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 1,819 56.4 18,305 944 Table 46: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Fan System Efficiency Measures in Thailand Ranked by their Final CCE Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r i c it y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve for Thailand's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Thailand's Industry in 2008: 74.6 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective and Technical electricity saving potential: 1819 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 73 Cost effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for fan system in Thai Industry (GWh/yr) 1,819 1,819 Share of saving from the total fan system energy use in studied industries in Thailand's in 2008 46% 46% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Thailand's in 2008 3% 3% Annual primary energy saving potential for fan system in Thai Industry (TJ/yr) 18,305 18,305 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Thai Industry (kton CO2/yr) 944 944 Table 47: Total Annual Cost-Effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Thailand's Industrial Fan Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysis- see Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 20: Vietnam's Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve 74 Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r ic i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve for Vietnam's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Vietnam's Industry in 2008: 53.4 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Cost effective electricity saving potential: 811 GWh/yr Technical electricity saving potential: 832 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix Leaks and damaged seals 79 2.9 1,132 39 2 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment 242 3.1 3,455 119 3 Correct damper problems 300 4.1 4,288 147 4 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 404 5.4 5,765 198 5 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 427 6.1 6,099 209 6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 454 6.9 6,485 222 7 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 492 7.8 7,033 241 8 Install variable speed drive 724 35.3 10,344 355 9 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 750 56.0 10,713 367 10 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 832 56.5 11,889 408 Table 48: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Fan System Efficiency Measures in Vietnam Ranked by their Final CCE RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 75 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for fan system in Vietnam's Industry (GWh/yr) 724 832 Share of saving from the total fan system energy use in studied industries in Vietnam in 2008 40% 45% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Vietnam in 2008 3% 3% Annual primary energy saving potential for fan system in Vietnam's Industry (TJ/yr) 10,344 11,889 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Vietnam's Industry (kton CO2/yr) 355 408 Table 49: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Vietnam's Industrial Fan Systems MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 76 No. Energy Efficiency Measure Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industry (GWh/yr) Final CCE (US$/MWh- Saved) Cumulative Annual Primary Energy Saving Potential in Industry (TJ/yr) Cumulative Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Potential from Industry (kton CO2 /yr) 1 Fix leaks and damaged seals 317 3.5 3,536 46 2 Correct damper problems 605 3.7 6,751 88 3 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment 1,200 4.0 13,391 175 4 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets 1,613 5.9 18,002 235 5 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces 1,707 7.4 19,048 249 6 Initiate predictive maintenance program 1,815 9.5 20,252 265 7 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives 1,968 13.2 21,964 287 8 Install variable speed drive 2,895 37.2 32,305 422 9 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type 3,242 53.9 36,178 473 10 Replace motor with more energy efficient type 3,327 64.6 37,130 485 Table 50: Cumulative Annual Electricity Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction for Fan System Efficiency Measures in Brazil Ranked by their Final CCE * The dotted lines represent the range of price from the sensitivity analysissee Section 4.5. NOTE: this supply curve is intended to provide an indicator of the relative cost-effectiveness of system energy efficiency measures at the national level. The cost-effectiveness of individual measures will vary based on site-specific conditions. Figure 21: Brazil's Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve Cost effective energy saving potential 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 C o s t o f C o n s e r v e d E le c t r ic i t y ( U S $ / M W h - s a v e d ) Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) Fan System Efficiency Supply Curve for Brazil's Industry Average Unit Price of Electricity for Brazil's Industry in 2008: 115.3 US$/MWh * 5 6 8 7 9 10 Technical and Cost effective electricity saving potential: 3327 GWh/yr 4 2 1 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 77 Cost Effective Potential Technical Potential Annual electricity saving potential for fan system in Brazil's Industry (GWh/yr) 3,327 3,327 Share of saving from the total fan system energy use in studied industries in Brazil in 2008 40% 40% Share of saving from total electricity use in studied industries in Brazil in 2008 2% 2% Annual primary energy saving potential for fan system in Brazil's Industry (TJ/yr) 37,130 37,130 Annual CO2 emission reduction potential from Brazil's Industry (kton CO2/yr) 485 485 Table 51: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction Potential for Brazil's Industrial Fan Systems Table 52: Cost-effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measure for Fan Systems in Each Country No. Energy Efficiency Measure US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil 3.1.1 Fix Leaks and damaged seals X X X X X X 3.1.2 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives X X X X X X 3.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces X X X X X X 3.1.4 Correct damper problems X X X X X X 3.2.1 Isolate flow paths to non-essential or non-operating equipment X X X X X X 3.2.2 Correct poor airflow conditions at fan inlets and outlets X X X X X X 3.3.1 Replace oversized fans with more efficient type X X X 3.4.1 Install variable speed drive X X X X X 3.5 Replace motor with more energy efficient type X X 3.6 Initiate predictive maintenance program X X X X X X (Note: cost effective measures are marked with "X") Table 52 below shows the snapshot of which energy efficiency measure for fan system is cost-effective for each country for a quick comparison 4.4. Maintenance and Persistence of Energy Savings Motor system energy assessments and case studies have illustrated the importance of regular maintenance, or the lack therein, as a critical factor in the persistence of energy savings from measures to improve the energy efficiency of motor systems. Expert opinion was sought to identify the relative dependence on maintenance for the energy efficiency measures included in this study. The experts were asked to select whether a given measure should be classified as Limited, Moderately, or Highly Dependent on maintenance practices. Substantial agreement among experts was reached on these ratings. Measures that were classified as either Highly or Moderately Dependent were then compared to the cost-effective measures as identified by CCE in the motor system supply curves for the six countries studied. Those measures identified as cost-effective for four or more of the six countries are shown in Table 53 in bold, italicized text. The dependence of so many cost-effective motor system energy efficiency measures on effective maintenance is one indicator of the potential benefits from implementing an energy management system (EnMS), and hints at the potential impact from implementation of the future ISO 50001- Energy management systems. A principal goal of the standard is to foster continual and sustained energy performance improvement through a disciplined approach to operations and maintenance practices. MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 78 No. Measures Measure Cost-effective per Efficiency Supply Curve Measures Most Dependent on Maintenance Practices US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil Pumping Systems: 1.1.1 Fix leaks, damaged seals, and packing X X X X 1.1.2 Remove scale from components such as heat exchangers and strainers X X 1.1.3 Remove sediment/scale buildup from piping X X X 1.7 Initiate predictive maintenance program X Compressed Air Systems: 2.1.1 Fix leaks, adjust compressor controls, establish ongoing plan X X X X X X 2.1.3 Correct compressor intake problems/replace filter X X X X 2.8 Initiate predictive maintenance program X X X X X X Table 53: Energy Efficiency Measures Highly or Moderately Dependent on Maintenance Practices for Persistence of Energy Savings, Further Identified by Final CCE as Cost Effective. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 79 No. Measures Measure Cost-effective per Efficiency Supply Curve Measures Most Dependent on Maintenance Practices US Canada EU Thailand Vietnam Brazil Further analysis of the pumping, compressed air, and fan systems reveal interesting differences. Of the seven (7) measures identified by pumping experts as highly or moderately dependent on maintenance, only two (2) or 28% met the cost-effectiveness threshold for four or more countries. Of the nine (9) measures identified by compressed air systems experts as highly or moderately dependent on maintenance, six (6) or 67% met the cost-effectiveness threshold. For fan systems, only four (4) measures were identified as highly or moderately dependent on maintenance and 100% met the cost-effectiveness threshold. Altogether, there were twenty (20) measures identified as highly or moderately dependent on maintenance practices, with 60% (12) of them also meeting the cost-effectiveness threshold for four or more countries. Fan Systems: 3.1.1 Fix leaks and damaged seals X X X X X X 3.1.2 Repair or replace inefficient belt drives X X X X X X 3.13 Remove sediment/scale buildup from fans and system surfaces X X X X X X 3.6 Initiate predictive maintenance program X X X X X X Measures Moderately Dependent on Maintenance Practices Pumping Systems: 1.2.1 Use pressure switches to shut down unnecessary pumps X X X X X 1.5 Replace pump with more energy efficient type X 1.6 Replace motor with more energy efficient type X Compressed Air Systems: 2.1.2 Replace existing condensate drains with zero loss type X X X X 2.2.1 Address restrictive end use drops and connections, faulty FRLs X X X X Correct excessive supply side pressure drop, i.e. treatment equipment X X 2.3.2 Improve end use efficiency; shut-off idle equip, engineered nozzles, etc. X X X X X X 2.5.2 Improve trim compressor part load efficiency 2.6 Match air treatment to demand side needs Fan Systems: none listed Based on these results, it could be assumed that energy efficiency measures for pumping systems that are reliant on maintenance are less cost effective than such measures for compressed air or fan systems. These results reveal an interesting variation by system that warrants further study. 4.5 Sensitivity Analysis In the previous sections, the cost-effective and technical energy efficiency improvement potentials were presented and discussed for the industrial motor systems in the six countries studied. Since several parameters play important roles in the analysis of energy efficiency potentials, it is important to see how changes in some of those parameters can influence the cost effectiveness of the potentials. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for two of the key parameters, the discount rate and the unit price of electricity because they can significantly influence the results. The choice of discount rate can differ based on the purpose of the analysis and the unit price of electricity can vary within the country/region, especially in the U.S. and EU. In general, the cost of conserved energy has a direct proportional relationship with the discount rate. In other words, reduction of the discount rate will reduce the cost of conserved energy, which will increase the cost-effective energy-saving potential (depending on the energy price). Tables 54-56 illustrate how changes in the discount rate can have a significant effect on the cost-effective energy saving potentials, assuming all the other factors, including the electricity price, are held constant. It should be noted that the non- cost effective measures may not become cost-effective by changing the discount rate, since the electricity price also plays a role in determining cost. The "Sum of Final CCE of all Measures" will decrease with the decline in discount rate regardless. The total technical energy- saving potentials do not change with the variation of the discount rate. The choice of the discount rate depends on the purpose of the analysis and the approach (prescriptive versus descriptive) used. A prescriptive approach uses lower discount rates (4% to 8%), especially for long-term issues like climate change or public sector projects. Low discount rates have the advantage of treating future generations equally to our own, but they also may cause relatively certain, near- term effects to be ignored in favor of more uncertain, long-term effects. A descriptive approach, however, uses relatively high discount rates between 10% and 30% in order to reflect the existence of barriers to energy efficiency investments (Worrell et al. 2004). The discount rate used for this study is 10%. MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 80 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 81 Country Discount Rate 5% 10% 15% 20% U.S Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 36,148 36,148 33,279 23,295 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) ** 962 1147 1355 1566 Canada Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 10,785 9929 6950 3159 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 936 1116 1321 1527 EU Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 33,085 26,921 26,921 23,885 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 1074 1274 1499 1725 Thailand Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3032 2782 2631 2631 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 416 522 638 765 Vietnam Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 1693 1693 1693 1693 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 320 400 489 583 Brazil Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 4585 4439 3840 3840 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 520 629 756 890 Table 54: Sensitivity Analysis for the Cost-effective Electricity Saving Potentials in Industrial Pumping Systems in the Base year with Different Discount Rates * The 10% discount rate is the base scenario which is used in the main analysis presented in this report. ** Sum of Final CCE of all Measures is included here to illustrate that although the change in discount rate may not result in a change in cost-effective savings, it will change the CCE in general. Country Discount Rate 5% 10% 15% 20% U.S Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 20,958 20,334 18,783 17,832 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved)** 1110 1422 1769 2141 Canada Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 5368 4707 3789 3789 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 1136 1457 1812 2194 EU Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 20,024 18,519 17,980 16,640 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 1254 1605 1997 2415 Thailand Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3817 3741 3662 3508 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 648 841 1058 1290 Vietnam Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 1682 1609 1493 1448 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 639 829 1043 1273 Brazil Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 6762 6069 5892 5775 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 658 852 1068 1301 Table 55: Sensitivity Analysis for the Cost-effective Electricity Saving Potentials in industrial Compressed Air Systems in the Base Year with Different Discount Rates * The 10% discount rate is the base scenario which is used in the main analysis presented in this report. ** Sum of Final CCE of all measures is included here to illustrate that although the change in discount rate may not result in a change in cost-effective savings, it will change the CCE in general. MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 82 Country Discount Rate 5% 10% 15% 20% U.S Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 17,850 15,432 9945 9945 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) ** 318 403 499 602 Canada Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3276 1825 1825 1676 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 312 396 490 590 EU Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 13,015 12,590 10,885 10,885 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 334 430 534 645 Thailand Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 1819 1819 1639 1583 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 142 184 234 288 Vietnam Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 832 724 724 724 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 142 184 234 288 Brazil Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3327 3327 3327 3327 Sum of Final CCE of all measures (US$/MWh-saved) 152 203 251 308 Table 56: Sensitivity Analysis for the Cost-effective Electricity Saving Potentials in Industrial Fan Systems in the Base Year with Different Discount Rates * The 10% discount rate is the base scenario which is used in the main analysis presented in this report. ** Sum of Final CCE of all measures is included here to illustrate that although the change in discount rate may not result in a change in cost-effective savings, it will change the CCE in general. The energy price can also directly influence the cost-effectiveness of energy saving potentials. A higher energy price will result in more energy efficiency measures being cost-effective, as it may cause the cost of conserved energy to fall below the energy price line in more cases. Tables 57-59 show how the cost- effective energy savings change by the variation of energy prices for all the three motor systems, keeping the discount rate and other parameters unchanged. As can be seen from the tables, in some cases the change in average unit price of electricity for the industry will not change the cost-effective energy saving potentials. This is because the change of the electricity price in that range will not change the position of the CCE of the measures compared to the electricity price line. In other words, no measures will change their ranking in relation to the average unit price of electricity line. The technical energy-savings do not change with the variation of energy prices. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 83 Country Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Minus 20% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Minus 10% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Plus 10% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Plus 20% U.S. Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$/MWh) 56.1 63.1 70.1 77.1 84.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 23,295 33,279 36,148 36,148 37,510 Canada Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$/MWh) 46.0 51.8 57.5 63.3 69.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 6950 6950 9929 9929 10,785 EU Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$/MWh) 86.2 97.0 107.8 118.6 129.4 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 25,944 26,921 26,921 28,051 28,051 Thailand Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$/MWh) 59.7 67.2 74.6 82.1 89.6 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 2631 2631 2782 3032 3032 Vietnam Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$/MWh) 42.7 48.1 53.4 58.7 64.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 1604 1693 1693 1693 1693 Brazil Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$/MWh) 92.2 103.7 115.3 126.8 138.3 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3840 3840 4439 4439 4585 Table 57: Sensitivity Analysis for the Cost-effective Electricity Saving Potentials in Industrial Pumping Systems in the Base year with Different Electricity Price MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 84 Country Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Minus 20% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Minus 10% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Plus 10% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Plus 20% U.S. Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 56.1 63.1 70.1 77.1 84.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 18,783 20,334 20,334 20,958 20,958 Canada Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 46.0 51.8 57.5 63.3 69.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3789 4707 4707 4958 5368 EU Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 86.2 97.0 107.8 118.6 129.4 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 17,795 18,519 18,519 18,519 20,024 Thailand Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 59.7 67.2 74.6 82.1 89.6 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3662 3741 3741 3817 3817 Vietnam Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 42.7 48.1 53.4 58.7 64.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 1493 1493 1609 1647 1682 Brazil Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 92.2 103.7 115.3 126.8 138.3 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 5892 5892 6069 6461 6461 Table 58: Sensitivity Analysis for the Cost-effective Electricity Saving Potentials in Industrial Compressed Air Systems in the Base Year with Different Electricity Price RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 85 Country Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Minus 20% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Minus 10% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Plus 10% Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry in the Base Year Plus 20% U.S. Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 56.1 63.1 70.1 77.1 84.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 9945 9945 15,432 15,432 17,850 Canada Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 46.0 51.8 57.5 63.3 69.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 1676 1676 1825 1825 2832 EU Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 86.2 97.0 107.8 118.6 129.4 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 10,885 12,590 12,590 13,015 13,015 Thailand Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 59.7 67.2 74.6 82.1 89.6 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 1819 1819 1819 1819 1819 Vietnam Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 42.7 48.1 53.4 58.7 64.1 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 750 750 750 832 832 Brazil Average unit price of electricity for industry (US$ /MWh) 92.2 103.7 115.3 126.8 138.3 Cost effective Annual Electricity Saving Potential (GWh/yr) 3327 3327 3327 3327 3327 Table 59: Sensitivity Analysis for the Cost-effective Electricity Saving Potentials in Industrial Fan Systems in the Base Year with Different Electricity Price MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 86 This report and supporting analyses represent an initial effort to address a major barrier to effective policymaking, and to more global acceptance of the energy efficiency potential of motor systems. That barrier is the lack of a transparent methodology for quantifying the energy efficiency potential of these systems based on sufficient data to document the magnitude and cost- effectiveness of the resulting energy savings by country and by region. The research framework created to conduct the analyses supporting this Phase I report is meant to be a beginning, not an end unto itself. The annual cost-effective and technical energy saving potential in industrial motor systems for the countries included in these analyses is summarized below and in Table 60 on the following pages. The authors and sponsors of this research seek to initiate an international dialogue with others having an interest in the energy efficiency potential of motor systems. Through this dialogue, it is hoped that the initial framework for quantifying motor system energy efficiency potential created for this report with a combination of expert opinion and limited data will be refined and the availability of data increased. A Phase II report which includes these refinements and which encompasses a greater number of countries is anticipated. Summary of Research and Findings Efficiency Supply Curves were constructed for this report for pumping, fan, and compressed air systems in the U.S., Canada, EU, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. The purpose of the analyses were to determine the potentials and costs of improving the energy-efficiency of these industrial motor systems by taking into account the costs and energy savings of different energy efficiency measures. Many cost-effective opportunities for energy efficiency improvement in the motor systems in the six countries have been identified but frequently not adopted, leading to what is called an "efficiency Conclusion CONCLUSION gap" (Jaffe and Stavins, 1994). This is explained by the existence of various obstacles especially non-monetary barriers to energy-efficiency improvement. Ten energy-efficiency technologies and measures for pumping systems, ten measures for the fan systems and sixteen measures for compressed air systems were analyzed. Using the bottom-up energy efficiency supply curve model, the cost- effective electricity efficiency potentials for these motor systems were estimated for the six countries in the analyses. Total technical electricity-saving potentials were also estimated for 100% penetration of the measures in the base year. The summary of the results for all motor systems and countries studied are presented in Table 60. Using the average CO2 emission factor of the electricity grid in each country, the CO2 emission reduction associated with the electricity saving potentials was also calculated. Figure 22 shows the share of energy savings for each motor system as a share of total electricity use in the base year for industries studied in the six selected countries/region. The share of total technical electricity saving potential for pumping systems as compared to the total pumping system energy use in studied industries for the base year varies between 43% and 57%. The 57% value is for Vietnam, which has the LOW efficiency base case and a correspondingly higher technical saving potential. The share of total technical electricity saving potential for compressed air systems as compared to the total compressed air system energy use in studied industries for the base year varies between 29% and 56%. Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil have higher technical saving potentials since their compressed air systems are classified in LOW efficiency base case. The share of total technical electricity saving potential for fan systems as compared with the total fan system energy use in studied industries in the base year varies between 27% and 46%. Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil have higher technical saving potentials because their fan systems are classified as LOW efficiency base case. The share of cost-effective electricity saving potential as compared to the total motor system energy use in the base case varies between 27% and 49% for the pumping system, 21% and 47% for the compressed air system, and 14% and 46% for the fan system. Overall, Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil have a higher percentage for cost-effective potential as compared to total motor systems energy use. There are two reasons for this. First, the three developing countries have the LOW efficiency base case, so the efficiency improvement over the base case is higher for each measure, resulting in a lower CCE. Second, the application of a labor adjustment factor in the calculation of CCE for Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil reduced the CCE; thus allowing more measures to fall below the electricity price line. In general, the cost of conserved energy has a direct proportional relationship with the discount rate. Reductions in the discount rate will produce corresponding reductions in the cost of conserved energy, which will increase the cost-effective energy-saving potential (depending on the energy price). A sensitivity analysis was conducted for a range of discount rates to illustrate these relationships. 87 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES A sensitivity analysis was also conducted for the unit price of electricity because it can vary within the country/region, especially in the U.S. and EU. The energy price can also directly influence the cost-effectiveness of energy saving potentials. A higher energy price will result in more energy efficiency measures being cost-effective, as it may cause the cost of conserved energy to fall below the energy price line in more cases. However, it should be noted that, as represented in this analysis, in some cases the change in average unit price of electricity for the industry will not change the cost-effective energy saving potentials. It should be further noted that some energy efficiency measures provide productivity, environmental, and other benefits in addition to energy savings, but it is difficult to quantify those benefits. Including quantified estimates of other benefits can decrease the cost of conserved energy and, thus, increase the number of cost-effective efficiency measures. This could be the subject of further research. The approach used in this study and the model developed should be viewed as a screening tool to present energy-efficiency measures and capture the energy-saving potential in order to help policy makers understand the potential of savings and design appropriate energy- efficiency policies. However, the energy- saving potentials and the cost of energy- efficiency measures and technologies will vary in accordance with country- and plant-specific conditions. Finally, effective energy-efficiency policies and programs are needed to realize the cost-effective potentials and to exceed those potentials in the future. 88 Country Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industrial Pumping Systems (100% Penetration) (GWh/yr) Share of saving from the total Pumping System Energy Use in Studied Industries in 2008 Cost effective Technical Cost effective Technical* U.S 36,148 54,023 29% 43% Canada 9,929 16,118 27% 45% EU 26,921 38,773 30% 44% Thailand 2,782 3,459 36% 45% Vietnam 1,693 1,984 49% 57% Brazil 4,439 4,585 43% 45% Table 60: Total Annual Cost-effective and Technical Energy Saving Potential in the Industrial Motor Systems in Studied Countries CONCLUSION 89 Country Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industrial Compressed Air System (100% Penetration) (GWh/yr) Share of Saving from the Total Compressed Air System Energy Use in Studied Industries in 2008 Cost effective Technical Cost effective Technical* U.S 20,334 28,403 21% 29% Canada 4,707 7,498 26% 41% EU 18,519 24,857 28% 38% Thailand 3,741 4,381 47% 55% Vietnam 1,609 1,970 46% 56% Brazil 6,069 6,762 42% 47% Country Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industrial Fan System (100% Penetration) (GWh/yr) Share of saving from the Total Fan system Energy Use in Studied Industries in 2008 Cost effective Technical Cost effective Technical* U.S 15,432 18,451 25% 30% Canada 1,825 3,386 14% 27% EU 12,590 13,015 28% 29% Thailand 1,819 1,819 46% 46% Vietnam 750 832 41% 45% Brazil 3,327 3,327 40% 40% Country Total Annual Electricity Saving Potential in Industrial Pump, Compressed Air, and Fan System (GWh/yr) Share of Saving from Electricity Use in Pump, Compressed Air, and Fan Systems in Studied Industries in 2008 Cost effective Technical Cost effective Technical* U.S 71,914 100,877 25% 35% Canada 16,461 27,002 25% 40% EU 58,030 76,644 29% 39% Thailand 8,343 9,659 43% 49% Vietnam 4,026 4,787 46% 54% Brazil 13,836 14,675 42% 44% Total (sum of 6 countries) 172,609 233,644 28% 38% * In calculation of energy savings, equipment 1000 hp or greater are excluded. 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Improving Fan System Performance: A Sourcebook for Industry, prepared by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Resource Dynamics Corporation, Washington, DC DOE/GO- 102003-1294. http://www1.eere.energy.gov/industry/bestpr actices/techpubs_motors.html US DOE, 2004. Energy Use and Loss Footprints. Available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/industry/progra m_areas/footprints.html US DOE, 2006. Improving Pumping System Performance: A Sourcebook for Industry, Second Edition, prepared by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Resource Dynamics Corporation, and the Alliance to Save Energy, Washington, DC. http://www1.eere.energy.gov/industry/bestpr actices/techpubs_motors.html US DOL, 2009. International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs in Manufacturing, 2007. Available at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ichcc.pdf Worrell, E., Martin, N., Price, L., 2000. Potential for energy efficiency improvement in the U.S. cement industry. Energy 25, 1189-1214 Worrell, E., Laitner, J.A., Ruth,M., and Finman, H., 2003. Productivity Benefits of Industrial Energy Efficiency Measures. Energy 11, 28 pp.1081-1098 Worrell, E. Ramesohl, S., Boyd, G. 2004. "Advances in Energy Forecasting Models Based on Engineering Economics," Annual Review of Environment and Resources. Vol. 29: 345-381. 93 M O T O R
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E F F I C I E N C Y S U P P L Y C U R V E S 9 4 Industrial Sub-sector Electricity Consumption in 2008 (GWh) Motor Systems Electricity Use as the % of Total Electricity Use in Each Industrial Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Fan System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Fan System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use (GWh) Food and Beverage 87483 46.6% 11.9% 10402 6.4% 5564 15.0% 13130 Textiles, Apparel, and Leather 28198 53.7% 13.0% 3658 6.7% 1893 23.4% 6592 Alumina and Aluminum 44906 13.3% 4.8% 2154 2.0% 916 5.5% 2453 Foundries 16798 33.3% 7.1% 1198 5.6% 933 7.0% 1181 Steel Industry 58450 48.0% 11.3% 6613 6.1% 3542 8.6% 5009 Cement 13396 77.8% 15.0% 2009 11.4% 1527 10.1% 1351 Glass and Fiber Glass 18679 40.0% 10.5% 1953 5.5% 1019 7.8% 1450 Chemicals 207107 53.7% 15.8% 32672 7.5% 15555 8.7% 18031 Forest Products (wood products and paper) 151079 69.3% 21.0% 31683 10.1% 15255 12.7% 19186 Petroleum Refineries 56543 74.5% 27.2% 15399 11.2% 6316 9.7% 5465 Fabricated Metal Products 42238 49.4% 11.5% 4850 6.2% 2607 13.5% 5723 Machinery 32733 50.9% 12.1% 3961 5.9% 1937 16.3% 5336 Computers, Electronics, Appliances, Electrical Equipment 40412 29.6% 8.9% 3601 3.4% 1355 13.1% 5292 Plastics and Rubber Products 53423 48.6% 11.3% 6028 6.0% 3211 13.5% 7229 Sum 851445 126180 61631 97427 Sum minus 1000hp+ 786,633 116477 49724 54224 A.1. COUNTRY-SPECIFIC DATA Country-Specific Data: United States APPENDICES A P P E N D I C E S 9 5 Country-Specific Data : Canada Industrial Sub-sector Electricity Consumption in 2008 (GWh) Motor Systems Electricity Use as the % of Total Electricity Use in Each Industrial Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Fan System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Fan System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use (GWh) Food and Beverage 9,630 46.6% 29.5% 2845 6.4% 613 15.0% 1445 Textiles, Apparel, and Leather 1,255 46.6% 29.7% 373 6.7% 84 23.4% 293 Primary Metal 65,420 33.0% 8.3% 5425 4.5% 2936 7.2% 4705 Non-Metallic Mineral 4,345 55.8% 12.4% 537 7.9% 345 8.7% 379 Chemical 20,837 53.7% 30.8% 6424 7.5% 1565 8.7% 1814 Forest Products (wood products and paper) 54,251 69.3% 31.7% 17172 10.1% 5478 12.7% 6889 Petroleum and Coal Products 6,329 74.5% 27.2% 1724 11.2% 707 9.7% 612 Fabricated Metal 5,210 49.4% 11.5% 598 6.2% 322 13.5% 706 Machinery Manufacturing 2,472 50.9% 12.1% 299 5.9% 146 16.3% 403 Computers, Electronics, Appliances, Electrical Equipment 2,186 29.6% 8.9% 195 3.4% 73 13.1% 286 Plastics and Rubber Products 5,510 48.6% 11.3% 622 6.0% 331 13.5% 746 Sum 177,446 36213 12600 18280 Sum minus 1000hp+ 165,775 34752 9125 14314 M O T O R
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E F F I C I E N C Y S U P P L Y C U R V E S 9 6 Industrial Sub-sector Electricity Consumption in 2008 (GWh) Motor Systems Electricity Use as the % of Total Electricity Use in Each Industrial Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Fan System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Fan System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use (GWh) Food, beverage and tobacco 111,830 46.6% 11.9% 13297 6.4% 7113 15.0% 16784 Iron and steel 138,690 48.0% 11.3% 15690 6.1% 8405 8.6% 11885 Non-metallic mineral 85,069 55.8% 12.4% 10509 7.9% 6752 8.7% 7428 Paper, pulp and print 142,223 69.3% 21.0% 29825 10.1% 14360 12.7% 18061 Chemical 199,531 53.7% 15.8% 31477 7.5% 14986 8.7% 17371 Machinery and metal 158,295 42.9% 10.8% 17027 5.1% 8093 14.2% 22432 Sum 585,118 88,838 44191 65,292 Sum minus 1000hp+ 552,921 83,597 35073 47,454 Country-Specific Data: European Union A P P E N D I C E S 9 7 Industrial Sub-sector Electricity Consumption in 2008 (GWh) Motor Systems Electricity Use as the % of Total Electricity Use in Each Industrial Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Fan System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Fan System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use (GWh) Food and Beverage 10,583 46.6% 11.9% 1258 6.4% 673 15.0% 1588 Textiles, Apparel, and Leather 7,687 53.7% 13.0% 997 6.7% 516 23.4% 1797 Primary Metal 7,199 33.0% 8.3% 597 4.5% 323 7.2% 518 Non-Metallic Mineral 7,141 55.8% 12.4% 882 7.9% 567 8.7% 624 Chemical, 'Petroleum Refineries, and Plastic Products 9,955 56.5% 17.1% 1699 7.9% 787 9.7% 965 Forest Products (wood products and paper) 3,803 69.3% 21.0% 798 10.1% 384 12.7% 483 Fabricated Metal, 'Machinery, and 'Electrical Machinery 13,735 42.9% 10.8% 1477 5.1% 702 14.2% 1946 Sum 60,104 7,708 3,953 7,921 Sum minus 1000hp+ 57,985 7,458 3,638 7,052 Country-Specific Data: Thailand M O T O R
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E F F I C I E N C Y S U P P L Y C U R V E S 9 8 Industrial Sub-sector Electricity Consumption in 2008 (GWh) Motor Systems Electricity Use as the % of Total Electricity Use in Each Industrial Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Fan System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Fan System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use (GWh) Food and Beverage 6,565 46.6% 11.9% 781 6.4% 418 15.0% 985 Textiles, Apparel, and Leather 4,409 53.7% 13.0% 572 6.7% 296 23.4% 1031 Primary Metal 3,690 33.0% 8.3% 306 4.5% 166 7.2% 265 Non-Metallic Mineral 4,451 55.8% 12.4% 550 7.9% 353 8.7% 389 Chemical, 'Petroleum Refineries, and Plastic Products 3,786 56.5% 17.1% 646 7.9% 299 9.7% 367 Forest Products (wood products and paper) 2,140 69.3% 21.0% 449 10.1% 216 12.7% 272 Fabricated Metal, 'Machinery, and 'Electrical Machinery 1,593 42.9% 10.8% 171 5.1% 81 14.2% 226 Sum 26,634 3,474 1,829 3,534 Sum minus 1000hp+ 25,730 3,377 1,665 3,171 Country-Specific Data : Vietnam A P P E N D I C E S 9 9 Country-Specific Data: Brazil Industrial Sub-sector Electricity Consumption in 2008 (GWh) Motor Systems Electricity Use as the % of Total Electricity Use in Each Industrial Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Pumping System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Fan System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Fan System Electricity Use (GWh) Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use as % of Overall Electricity Use in the Sector Estimated Compressed Air System Electricity Use (GWh) Food and Beverage 23,080 56.0% 11.9% 1536.7 6.4% 1468 15.0% 3464 Textiles 7,813 51.7% 13.0% 524.5 6.7% 525 23.4% 1826 Non-ferrous metals 39,144 27.3% 4.8% 512.3 2.0% 799 5.5% 2138 Ferro alloys 8,737 2.6% 7.1% 16.3 5.6% 485 7.0% 614 Pig iron and Steel 18,622 75.2% 11.3% 1584.2 6.1% 1129 8.6% 1596 Cement 4,777 88.5% 15.0% 634.2 11.4% 545 10.1% 482 Chemicals 22,109 66.3% 15.8% 2312.5 7.5% 1660 8.7% 1925 Pulp and paper 17,764 85.3% 21.0% 3176.7 10.1% 1794 12.7% 2256 Sum 142,046 10297 8404 14301 Sum minus 1000hp+ 131,888 9887 6654 10886 MOTOR SYSTEM EFFICIENCY SUPPLY CURVES 100 Country-Specific Data : European Union Year 2007 Unit Average Uunit Price of Electricity for Industry 107.8 US$/MWh Emission Factor for Grid Electricity in 2007 0.44 (kgCO2/KWh) Average Transmission and Distribution Losses of the Electricity Grid in the Country in 2007 6.4% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency of Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants in the Country in 2007 40.9% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency Including T&D Losses (%) 38.3% % Conversion Rate from Final to Primary Electricity 2.61 Country-Specific Data : Canada Year 2008 Unit Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry 57.5 US$/MWh Emission Factor for Grid Electricity in 2008 0.50 (kgCO2/KWh) Average Transmission and Distribution Losses of the Electricity Grid in the Country in 2008 6.6% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency of Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants in the Country in 2008 30.94% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency Including T&D Losses (%) 28.9% % Conversion Rate from Final to Primary Electricity 3.46 Country-Specific Data : United States Year 2008 Unit Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry 70.1 US$/MWh Emission Factor for Grid Electricity in 2008 0.60 (kgCO2/KWh) Average Transmission and Distribution Losses of the Electricity Grid in the Country in 2008 6.5% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency of Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants in the Country in 2008 35.1% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency Including T&D losses (%) 32.8% % Conversion Rate from Final to Primary Electricity 3.05 Country-Specific Data : Brazil Year 2008 Unit Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry 115.3 US$/MWh Emission Factor for Grid Electricity in 2008 0.146 (kgCO2/KWh) Average Transmission and Distribution Losses of the Electricity Grid in the Country in 2008 16.6% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency of Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants in the Country in 2008 * 38.7% % Weighted Average Net Generation efficiency including T&D Losses (%) 32.3% % Conversion Rate from Final to Primary Electricity 3.10 Country-Specific Data : Vietnam Year 2008 unit Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry 53.4 US$/MWh Emission factor for Grid Electricity in 2008 0.49 (kgCO2/KWh) Average Transmission and Distribution Losses of the Electricity Grid in the Country in 2008 9.4% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency of Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants in the Country in 2008 27.8% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency Including T&D Losses (%) 25.2% % Conversion Rate from Final to Primary Electricity 3.97 Country-Specific Data : Thailand Year 2008 Unit Average Unit Price of Electricity for Industry 74.6 US$/MWh Emission Factor for Grid Electricity in 2008 0.52 (kgCO2/KWh) Average Transmission and Distribution Losses of the Electricity Grid in the Country in 2008 6.1% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency of Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants in the Country in 2008 38.1% % Weighted Average Net Generation Efficiency Including T&D Losses (%) 35.8% % Conversion Rate from Final to Primary Electricity 2.80 * It should be noted that in Brazil electricity generation mix is 87% hydropower, 3% nuclear, and 10% fossil fuel. In this study, the net generation efficiency of fossil fuel-fired power plants is used for converting electricity consumption from final to primary energy in all countries. APPENDICES 101 x x UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION Vienna International Centre, P.O. Box 300, 1400 Vienna, Austria Telephone: (+43-1) 26026-0, Fax: (+43-1) 26926-69 E-mail: [email protected], Internet: www.unido.org