Factsandstatisticsindicatefixingattheverytopofmenstennis

by Katarina Pijetlovic, LL.B, LL.M, LL.Lic. LL.D cand. [email protected] EU and sports law academic

Facts and statistics strongly indicate that draws at the Grand Slam tournaments 2008-2011 might have been fixed at the very top of men's tennis. Namely, in 12 out of 12 Grand Slam tournaments played on hard and grass courts between 2008-2011, Federer and Djokovic were always drawn to the same half of the draw, while Nadal and Murray were drawn to the other half. In addition, in five of those 12 tournaments Murray was not among the first four seeded players, so his draw was conducted separately five times. Thus, the statistics are as follows: to get the same result 12 out of 12 times, probability is 1 in 4096. For the case of Murray's separate draws which produced the same result 5 out of 5 times, it is 1 in 32. THEREFORE, THE PROBABILITY TO OBTAIN DRAW RESULTS AS OBTAINED AT THE 12 GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS IS 131072 TO 1 (4096 x 32 = 131072). Combined with the study conducted by ESPN on the draws of unseeded players at US Open it reaches 1 in many BILLIONS.

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DRAWINGPROCEDURE Ingeneral,attheGrandSlamtournamentsplayersareenteredinthedrawsheetbasedontheircurrentstanding ontheATPranklist.Thereare128playersintheGrandSlams:32seededplayersand96unseededplayers.The firstseedisplacedonline1,whilethesecondseedisplacedonline128attheverybottomofthedrawsheet. Thisensuresthatthetwobestplayerscannotmeetbeforethefinals.Thereafter,3rdand4thseededplayerare handdrawnfromthecup:thefirstdrawnisplacedontheline33andtheseconddrawnisplacedontheline96in thedrawsheet.Thiswaythebestfourplayerscannotmeeteachotherbeforesemifinals.Thenamesof5th,6th, 7thand8thseededplayersarethenplacedintothecupandhanddrawntofillplacesonlines32,64,65,and97 inthedraw.Similarly,4moregroupsofseededplayersaredrawnandplacedontheirpredeterminedlineinthe drawsheet.Anyseededplayerhas50%ofthechancetobedrawninfirstseededplayershalfofthedraw,and corresponding50%tobedrawninpartwithsecondseededplayer. Forunseededplayersthecomputerprogrammerandomlyselectsthenamestofillin96remainingvacantplaces. Fordetailsconcerningthedrawsseep.25oftheGrandSlamRulebook2011 http://beta.itftennis.com/media/64108/64108.pdf BACKGROUNDANDFACTSABOUT4TOPPLAYERS 1. For many years, the first two spots on the ATP rank list shifted between Roger Federer known as a hard and grass court specialist and Rafael Nadal known as clay court specialist. The two players held a virtual duopoly over menstennis. 2. Both are sponsored by Nike, and are the most popular players on the planet with the massive fan base unmatchedbyanyotherplayer. FanbaseontheFacebook: Federer9million Nadal8.5million Djokovic1.3million Murray450.000 Majority of the tennis fans across the world, tournament organizers, and players' sponsors, each for different reasons,wantedtoseeFedererandNadalclashinfinals. 3. In 2007 Novak Djokovic rose to No. 3 and a year later, in the end of 2008, Andy Murray rose to No. 4 to threatenthedominantduo.

4.Generalresultsofallthetournaments: NadalMurray:13:4 FedererMurray:6:8 NadalDjokovic:16:14 FedererDjokovic:14:10 5.Resultsofmutualclashesonhardandgrasscourtsbefore2008seasonareasfollows: NadalMurray:2:0 FedererMurray:1:1 NadalDjokovic:3:2 FedererDjokovic:4:1 Intheirfirstmatchin2005FedererwonMurraybutbackthenMurraywasnotevenamongtop100intheworld. In their second match, Murray ranked 31 won Federer in 2006, the best year of Federers career in which he lost only to one other player: Nadal. In 2007 a fast progressing Murray had not had a chance to meet Federer on any tournaments, but he beat him again on their next encounter one and a half year later in 2008. At the same time, MurraylosttoNadalinfirstfiveencounters,twoofwhichwerebefore2008season. Djokovic was equal opponent to Nadal on hard and grass courts from the start, and today he is leading 11:7 against Nadal on those surfaces. But it is clear Djokovic was most likely to lose to Federer on that surface looking at4:1resultfrombefore2008.TodayFedererisstillinlead11:9ofthese20matches,fourlastmatchesonhard courtwerewonbyDjokovicinhisrunin2011whichtookeveryonebysurprise. RESULTSOFTHEDRAWS20082011 AustralianOpen RolandGarros Wimbledon USOpen 1st seed NADAL 1st seed NADAL 1st seed DJOKOVIC 2011 1st seed NADAL
2nd seed FEDERER 3rd seed DJOKOVIC 5th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 2nd seed DJOKOVIC 3rd seed FEDERER 4th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 2nd seed NADAL 3rd seed FEDERER 4th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 1st seed NADAL 1st seed FEDERER 2nd seed NADAL 2nd seed FEDERER rd 3 seed DJOKOVIC 3rd seed DJOKOVIC th 4 seed MURRAY 4th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs DJOKOVIC IN HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs FEDERERs HALF; HALF MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 1st seed FEDERER 1st seed NADAL (withdrew) 2nd seed MURRAY 2nd seed FEDERER rd 3 seed MURRAY 3rd seed NADAL 4th seed DJOKOVIC 4th seed DJOKOVIC Result of the draw: Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs DJOKOVIC IN HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs FEDERERs HALF; HALF (Nadal withdrew due to MURRAY IN NADALs injury but this is irrelevant in this HALF context) 1st seed FEDERER 1st seed NADAL 2nd seed NADAL 2nd seed FEDERER rd 3 seed DJOKOVIC 3rd seed DJOKOVIC 12th seed MURRAY 6th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs DJOKOVIC IN HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs FEDERERs HALF; HALF MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 2nd seed DJOKOVIC 3rd seed FEDERER 4th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF

2010 1st seed FEDERER 2nd seed NADAL 3rd seed DJOKOVIC 5th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 2009 1st seed NADAL 2nd seed FEDERER 3rd seed DJOKOVIC 4th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 2008 1st seed FEDERER 2nd seed NADAL 3rd seed DJOKOVIC 9th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF

1st seed FEDERER 2nd seed NADAL 3rd seed DJOKOVIC 4th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: MURRAY IN FEDERERs HALF; DJOKOVIC IN NADALs HALF 1st seed NADAL 2nd seed FEDERER 3rd seed MURRAY 4th seed DJOKOVIC Result of the draw: DJOKOVIC IN FEDERERs HALF; MURRAY IN NADALs HALF 1st seed FEDERER 2nd seed NADAL 3rd seed DJOKOVIC 10th seed MURRAY Result of the draw: BOTH DJOKOVIC AND MURRAY IN NADALs HALF (lets not forget here who is king of clay)

 Very curiously, since the beginning of 2008 in each and every of 12 Grand Slams played on hard and grass courts (i.e., four of each, Australian Open, US Open and Wimbledon), Djokovic was placed in Federers half on the draw, andMurrayinNadalshalfofthedraw!InUSOpen2009and2011,andWimbledon2011FedererandMurraydid notevenhaveachancetobeinthesamepartofthedrawastheywere1stand2ndseeds(USOpen2009)or3rd and 4th seeds (US Open 2011 and Wimbledon 2011). But on those three occasions Nadal and Federer were placed in the separate part of the draw sheet when each and every of those times there was 50% chance to obtainthatresult.WithDjokovicandMurrayinlessfavorablepartsofthedrawthelikelihoodofthedesiredfinals betweenNadalandFedererincreases. INCREDIBLESTATISTICS Anyseededplayerhas50%ofthechancetobedrawninfirstseededplayershalfofthedraw,andcorresponding 50% to be drawn in part with second seeded player. Under the laws of probability having the draw of 3rd and 4th seeded players have identical outcome (i.e., Djokovic always in Federers half, and Nadal always in Murrays half) in 12 out of 12 times is 1 in 4096, or 0.02%. But Murray was not among 4 first seeded players at 5 of those 12 tournaments(AustralianOpen2008,2010,2011,Wimbledon2008,andUSOpen2008).Thismeanshewasdrawn in the separate group with other seeded players in each and every of those 5 separate draws he was placed in Nadals half! The same result in 5 out of 5 draws can happen is 1 in 32. 4096 multiplied with 32 is 131072. THE PROBABILITY TO OBTAINTHE RESULTS AS WE SAWIN HARD AND GRASS COURT GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS 20082011 IS 131072 TO 1. If you wanted to arrive at the result of draws achieved at the Grand Slams from 2008 to2011,youwouldhavetoconduct131072drawstogetthesameresultonlyonce.Itwouldtakeyouconducting 17drawseverysingledayfor359years! ACASEOFROLANDGARROS(theonlyclaycourtSlam) Results on ALL clay tournaments are as follows: Murray never played Federer on any clay court tournament. Nadal leads 4:0 against Murray on clay. Nadal was likely to win whomever he got on clay, Djokovic or Murray. Djokovicplayed11matchesonclaywithNadalofwhichhelost9firstmatches.Federervs.Djokoviconclay3:1. FedererwaslikelytowinonclayagainstDjokovic. 2.ResultsofRolandGarrosdraws20082011 AsregardsthissurfaceiswaslessimportantwhereDjokovicisplacedinthedraw,whetherwithNadalorFederer. What was important is to keep Murray out of the way of Federer and it happened in 3 out of 4 Roland Garros tournaments. 2008Murraywasranked10thandwasdrawninthepartwithNadal.Djokovicwasdrawnseparatelyand wasalsodrawninNadalspart. 2010 might appear as the only odd year in the entire story. This is the only year where Murray was placed in Federers half. Djokovic automatically was placed with Nadal as he and Murray were 3rd and 4th seeds.However,ifyoulookattheMurraysopponentsontheroadtosemifinalsanybodyknowingtennis would be able to predict he was not going to make it that far. And he did not. Some even questioned his abilitytogetpassedGasquetinthefirstroundhebarelymadeitcomingbackfromtwosetsdown. NB!Thistournamentwasnottakenintoaccountforthepurposesofstatisticsduetothechangedrelativestrength of players and the need to take into account qualitative aspects, but it does not mean that it is excluded from the possiblefixing. CONNECTIONTOESPNRESEARCH Recent research conducted by ESPNs Outside The Lines demonstrated that computergenerated part of the draw at US Open which supposed to randomly distribute the unseeded players in the draw sheet has likely been rigged for the past ten years to ensure that the top 2 players face the easiest possible opponents in the first round.ItisstillpossiblethoughinsportjustlikeinlifeanomaliescanhappensaidChrisWidmaierofUSTennis Association. But statistical analysis conducted by Dr. Andrew Swift produced as easy opponents in the first round in only 4 out of million simulations! "By itself, the U.S. [Open] numbers are weird," he said. "And then they're also weird in comparison to the other three Grand Slams. So you've got a double argument of weirdness here. Somethingweirdisgoingon."

Fullstoryavailableherehttp://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6854000/howespnlinesanalyzedusopentennis tournamentdraw andherehttp://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espnanalysisfindstopseedstennisusopenhadeasierdraw statisticallylikelyESPNsshortvideoillustrationathttp://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6861149&categoryid=2378529

CONCLUSION Theprobabilitythatthetwoincrediblecoincidences(i.e.,handdrawsofseededplayersatthethreeGrandSlams, andthecomputergenerateddrawsofunseededplayersattheUSOpen)mighthappensimultaneouslyis1inca. 32BILLIONS.Thesefiguresareastrongindicatoroffixingandmeritdetailedinvestigation.