After over two decades of power, the dictator Bashar al-Assad is on the brink.
The Syrian president faces a catastrophic situation as the chief rebel army, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, tightens the noose around his neck. With rebels said to be closing in on Syria’s capital Damascus, Assad has one hope left: Vladimir Putin. But will the Russian leader intervene and destroy HTS? And, perhaps as pertinent to ask, can he do so?
Since civil war broke out in 2011, for 13-blood soaked years, Assad’s regime of unspeakable horror has been kept afloat by two nations – Iran and Russia. But since Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel over a year ago, Iran and its ally Hezbollah have effectively been knocked out of the conflict.
As for the Kremlin, Putin has since 2015 ordered his warplanes to hit the rebels as hard as they can. No mercy was to be shown. And all the while he has watched over fawning Assad – a man who has used barrel bombs and even chemical weapons to kill his own people – the Syrian leader has become Putin’s puppet.
But the world has changed and today Putin’s eyes are fixed closer to home. The Russian leader needs his airforce and weapons for his own awful war against Ukraine. And, unless things change quickly and Russia steps in to save Assad, we must assume Putin has given up on the Syrian dictator.
The puppet master seems no longer to want to pull Assad’s strings. Assad will be deciding whether to stay in Damascus or flee. He can pretend to still be in charge but runs the real risk of being killed by the rebel army. Assad might try to jet away – perhaps to Moscow, or Teheran. But, either way, without a last minute major intervention from Putin, Assad's rule will soon be turned to ashes.