New government likely to be in place in second half of January
Ireland's outgoing coalition leaders — Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris — are likely to resume talks with the rural independents before Christmas. File picture: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters/RollingNews
A government is likely to be formed in the second half of January, with "significant" changes to departments.
Senior sources in the outgoing coalition say that a government could be formed by January 22, but admit that this "may be tight".
Talks between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and regional independents are likely to continue to this Friday or next Monday before breaking for Christmas and resuming on January 6.
An outgoing minister said that talks with the regional group of independents were "not going to be easy, but will get done" in early in January, allowing Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to put a programme for government to their members.
While both votes would normally take around two weeks, there is some belief that the Fine Gael decision-making process could be expedited in order to have a government in place as close to the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president on January 20 as possible.
The outgoing government is keenly aware that a second Trump administration could target Irish corporation taxes and exports with tariffs and will launch a charm offensive early in Mr Trump's second reign.
A senior source said that much of what will be discussed in the coming days will focus on the programme for government and what structure departments take on. It is likely that the portfolios currently held by Green ministers are in line for a carve-up.
The areas of Children and Disability are likely to be one department, but Immigration will be separated and is likely to be put under the Justice umbrella. Whether or not that would be under Fianna Fáil's proposed Home Affairs department will be a point of contention between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
One senior government source said that separating the justice department "will be difficult" and "there is some nervousness" around operational questions such as who a Garda Commissioner would alert in the event of a major incident if there were two secretaries general under the one minister.
It is felt that some areas such as energy or transport, currently held by Eamon Ryan, could fit alongside trade or enterprise.
Taoiseach Simon Harris met with Labour leader Ivana Bacik on Monday for "lengthy" talks and said afterwards that Labour has "its own processes to work through".
Ms Bacik and her team will meet with Tánaiste Micheál Martin on Tuesday with one Labour TD saying the outcome of these discussions would determine where they go as a party in terms of whether or not to continue engaging in talks.
Meanwhile, Mr Harris defended the coalition parties' engagement with Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry, who is the convener of the regional group.
In June 2018, Mr Lowry was found guilty of charges of failing to keep proper books of account and delivering an incorrect corporation tax return in relation to his refrigeration company, Garuda.
In the Moriarty Tribunal, it criticised Mr Lowry’s behaviour at the time, describing it as “profoundly corrupt”.
Mr Harris was asked about the findings on Monday and why his party is continuing to engage with Mr Lowry.
“You have to remember the public voted for Deputy Lowry in very large numbers in Tipperary,” Mr Harris said.
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