Dollar climbs after Donald Trump’s Brics tariff threat and French political woes

The dollar notched up its sharpest rise since the day after Donald Trump’s election victory, following his threats of huge tariffs on Brics nations and as French political tumult escalated.

The dollar index, a measure of the currency against six peers, rose 0.6 per cent on Monday. The euro was among the biggest laggards as France’s government teetered on collapse, but other major currencies, including the UK pound and Canadian dollar, also slipped.

Monday’s gains marked the latest leg of a powerful rally for the dollar, which was boosted by Trump’s win in last month’s presidential election. Investors have been betting that Trump’s tariff plans will be inflationary, hampering the Federal Reserve’s ability to reduce interest rates.

Trump added to the concerns at the weekend when he threatened tariffs of 100 per cent against the Brics countries unless their governments agreed not to create a new currency as an alternative to the US dollar.

“There is little doubt that Trump’s tweeting is again proving a key short-term driver in currency markets,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

A survey from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday, which showed US manufacturing activity cooling by less than expected in November, further bolstered the case for slower rate cuts.

The Fed cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in November following a half-point cut in September as policymakers bet inflation would fall towards their 2 per cent target.

Bets on a December rate cut intensified in the US afternoon on Monday after Fed governor Christopher Waller said he favoured a further lowering of interest rates later this month, unless data before the meeting painted a different picture than currently.

That led the dollar to give up some of its gains and reduced a rise in US two-year Treasury yields, which are closely tied to Fed expectations. The notes traded little changed at 4.18 per cent in late trade.

Investors are bracing themselves for several other critical US economic events this week, including remarks by Fed chief Jay Powell on Wednesday and closely watched jobs figures on Friday.

“That’s the data that will tell us whether the Fed eases rates by a quarter-point this month, or pauses,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities.

Investors are pricing in a 75 per cent chance the Fed will ease rates by a quarter point when the central bank meets on December 17-18, according to CME Group data. A series of strong economic reports had led investors to lower the likelihood of a December rate cut in recent weeks and to reduce bets on the scale of further easing next year.

Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said the stronger US economy, compared with other regions, would continue to support higher Treasury yields as well as a higher dollar. 

Guy Miller, chief market strategist at insurance group Zurich, echoed that sentiment, saying the dollar’s gains had “further to run”.

The euro also slid 0.8 per cent against the dollar to $1.05 as a political crisis in France intensified with Prime Minister Michel Barnier facing a no-confidence vote over his administration’s tax and spending plans. The closely watched gap, or “spread”, between French and German government bond yields rose towards a recent 12-year high.

Jim McCormick, macro strategist at Citi, said the “risk of a no-confidence vote bringing down the government” had helped to weaken the euro and pushed wider spreads on French sovereign debt. “This said, the reaction has been modest, given the underlying risks.”