Mach 5 and Beyond

Mach 5 and Beyond

Hypersonic Warfare, Missile Technology and Global Strategic Implications

Richard Skiba

Copyright © 2024 by Richard Skiba

All rights reserved.

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This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional when appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, personal, or other damages.

Skiba, Richard (author)

Mach 5 and Beyond: Hypersonic Warfare, Missile Technology and Global Strategic Implications

ISBN 978-1-7637173-7-4 (Paperback) 978-1-7637173-8-1 (eBook) 978-1-7637173-9-8 (Hardcover)

Non-fiction

Contents

Introduction

PART I - The Basics of Hypersonic Technology

1.What Are Hypersonic Weapons?

2.The Physics of Hypersonic Flight

3.Hypersonic Propulsion Systems

PART II - Development and Testing

4.Early Development of Hypersonic Weapons

5.Modern Hypersonic Weapon Programs

6.Hypersonic Weapon Testing Facilities

Part III - Military and Strategic Implications

7.Modern Hypersonic Weapon Programs

8.Global Hypersonic Arms Race

9.Hypersonic Weapons and Deterrence Theory

Part IV - Challenges and Countermeasures

10.Technical Challenges in Hypersonic Weapon Development

11.Counter-Hypersonic Defence Systems

12.Ethical and Legal Considerations

Part V - Future of Hypersonic Technology

13.Emerging Technologies Supporting Hypersonic Advancements

14.Hypersonic Weapons in Space

15.The Future of Global Military Strategy

References

Introduction

The term hypersonic missile does not have a universally accepted definition, but it generally refers to missiles capable of traveling at speeds greater than Mach 5—five times the speed of sound—while maintaining manoeuvrability throughout their flight. Unlike ballistic missiles, which follow predictable, parabolic trajectories, hypersonic missiles can alter their flight path during travel, making them difficult to detect, track, and intercept. These missiles operate within Earth's atmosphere for most of their flight, where they are capable of performing sharp, evasive manoeuvres that make them a challenge for existing defence systems [1].

Several countries are heavily investing in the development of hypersonic missile technology. Russia and China are reported to have already deployed hypersonic missiles, positioning themselves at the forefront of this military technology. The United States has multiple ongoing hypersonic weapons programs and continues to conduct tests aimed at bringing these systems into active deployment. The United Kingdom does not currently possess hypersonic missile capabilities, but it has announced plans to develop future hypersonic concepts and technologies. In 2022, the UK, US, and Australia committed to joint development of hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities through the AUKUS security partnership, underscoring the importance of hypersonic technology in modern defence strategies [1].

The missions for which hypersonic missiles may be used depend on various factors, including the missile’s range, speed, warhead type, and launch platform. Potential applications include the ability to strike high-value, time-sensitive targets quickly and with precision, such as mobile military units or critical infrastructure. Hypersonic missiles may also be employed for long-range precision strikes, enabling militaries to attack distant targets rapidly while minimizing the risk of interception. Another possible role for hypersonic missiles is in nuclear deterrence, although the effectiveness of hypersonic weapons in this context remains debated among experts. Some believe that their extreme speed and manoeuvrability make them ideal for delivering nuclear payloads, while others question whether they add significant value over existing nuclear delivery systems, such as ballistic missiles [1].

One of the most important implications of hypersonic missiles is their potential impact on missile defence systems. Current missile defence systems, particularly those designed to counter intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), are not optimized to defend against the unique flight characteristics of hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic missiles fly at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles, which makes them harder to detect with long-range radar systems. Their manoeuvrability allows them to change trajectory mid-flight, further complicating interception. This combination of speed, altitude, and manoeuvrability poses a significant challenge for missile defence, which typically relies on early detection and prediction of a missile’s trajectory to intercept it. Defence systems would need to be redesigned or significantly upgraded to counter hypersonic threats, likely requiring considerable investment in research and development [1].

There are two main types of hypersonic missiles: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs) and Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs). Each type operates differently but shares the same underlying characteristics of high speed and manoeuvrability. HGVs are typically mounted onto rocket boosters, which accelerate them to hypersonic speeds. Once the HGV reaches its desired altitude—often between 30 to 80 kilometres—it detaches from the booster and glides unpowered toward its target at high speed. These glide vehicles can reach speeds of Mach 20 or more during their descent, making them nearly impossible to intercept with current defence technologies [1].

On the other hand, HCMs are powered throughout their flight by ramjet or scramjet engines, which enable them to maintain hypersonic speeds at altitudes ranging between 20 and 40 kilometres. The propulsion systems in HCMs allow for sustained flight at high speeds, making them effective for long-range missions and difficult to detect in time for interception [1].

Russia and China have reportedly deployed hypersonic missiles that are capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear warheads, highlighting the potential for these weapons to be used in both tactical and strategic contexts. The United States is testing multiple hypersonic technologies as part of its ongoing effort to catch up in the global hypersonic arms race. Meanwhile, the AUKUS agreement between the UK, US, and Australia reflects a commitment to developing not only hypersonic capabilities but also counter-hypersonic technologies, which are seen as essential for maintaining military balance in the future [1].

The development of hypersonic missiles is a highly complex and expensive endeavour. The technical challenges involved in creating missiles capable of sustained hypersonic flight include overcoming issues related to heat management, manoeuvrability, and the integration of advanced propulsion systems. These difficulties contribute to the high development and manufacturing costs associated with hypersonic missiles. Despite these challenges, the strategic advantages offered by these weapons—such as the ability to evade traditional missile defence systems and strike targets rapidly—make them a priority for military powers around the world [1].

The combination of speed, manoeuvrability, and altitude that characterizes hypersonic missiles presents new challenges for existing missile defence systems. While missile defence technologies are continually evolving, current systems are generally not equipped to deal with the unique threats posed by hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic missiles offer reduced detection time, giving the target less time to respond and launch countermeasures. Defence systems will need to undergo significant upgrades to handle hypersonic threats, likely involving new sensors, faster interceptors, and advanced tracking capabilities [1].

There is ongoing debate among defence analysts about the broader implications of hypersonic missiles for global peace and stability. Some argue that the introduction of these weapons could escalate tensions and increase the risk of conflict, particularly between nuclear-armed states. The speed and unpredictability of hypersonic weapons might pressure countries to act more aggressively or pre-emptively, for fear of being unable to defend against a hypersonic strike. On the other hand, some experts believe that hypersonic missiles will not fundamentally change the strategic balance between major nuclear powers, given that traditional nuclear deterrents like ballistic missiles remain highly effective [1].

Arms control, export controls, and other measures could help mitigate the risks posed by hypersonic weapons, but these approaches face significant challenges. As hypersonic technology continues to evolve, it will be essential for global powers to engage in discussions about regulation and arms control to ensure that the development and deployment of these advanced weapons do not lead to unintended consequences for global stability. The future of hypersonic technology will depend not only on overcoming technical barriers but also on finding ways to manage the geopolitical risks associated with its deployment [1].

This book on hypersonic weapons is suited for a diverseaudience, particularly those interested in the intersection of modern militarytechnology, defence strategies, and global security. It offers valuableinsights for military professionals, defence analysts, and policymakers,discussing the military applications and strategic advantages of hypersonicweapons in global conflicts. Engineers and researchers in aerospace and defencesectors can benefit from the technical chapters on propulsion, materials, andtesting. Additionally, students and academics studying military technology orinternational relations may find it a useful resource for understanding theimplications of these emerging technologies. General readers fascinated by thefuture of warfare will also appreciate its comprehensive overview of howhypersonic weapons may reshape conflict dynamics.

PART I - The Basics of Hypersonic Technology

What Are Hypersonic Weapons?

Definition and Characteristics

Hypersonic weapons represent a significant advancement in military technology, characterized by their ability to travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5, which is five times the speed of sound. These weapons can be broadly categorized into two types: hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs). HGVs are typically launched from a rocket and glide at hypersonic speeds, while HCMs utilize air-breathing engines to sustain their speed during flight. Both types are designed to evade traditional missile defence systems due to their speed, manoeuvrability, and low-altitude flight profiles, which complicate detection and interception efforts [2, 3].

Mach 5 refers to a speed that is five times the speed of sound. The speed of sound, or Mach 1, varies slightly depending on factors such as altitude and air temperature, but at sea level, it's approximately 767 miles per hour (mph) or 1,235 kilometres per hour (km/h).

Therefore, Mach 5 is:

3,835 miles per hour (mph) in imperial units.

6,174 kilometres per hour (km/h) in metric units.

Examples to put Mach 5 into perspective:

Commercial Aircraft:

A typical commercial airliner like a Boeing 747 flies at around 570 mph (917 km/h), which is only about 0.75 Mach. Mach 5 would be more than 6 times faster than a 747's cruising speed.

Concorde (Supersonic Airliner):

The Concorde, a supersonic passenger plane that flew from 1976 to 2003, reached speeds of 1,354 mph (2,180 km/h), or about Mach 2. Mach 5 would be more than twice the speed of the Concorde.

New York to London Flight Time:

A flight from New York to London (about 3,460 miles, or 5,570 kilometres) takes around 7 hours on a commercial flight. At Mach 5, the trip could theoretically be done in under 1 hour.

Bullet Speed:

A typical handgun bullet travels at about 1,200 mph (1,930 km/h), or Mach 1.6. A Mach 5 object would be traveling more than 3 times the speed of a bullet.

At Mach 5 speeds, a hypersonic vehicle or weapon covers over 1 mile (1.6 km) every second, highlighting the immense velocity and challenge of intercepting or defending against such fast-moving systems.

The strategic implications of hypersonic weapons are profound. Their rapid flight capabilities and ability to perform evasive manoeuvres make them a formidable challenge for existing air defence systems, which are often not equipped to handle such fast-moving targets. This has led to concerns regarding national security and the potential for destabilization in global military balances, as countries like the United States, Russia, and China race to develop these technologies [4-6]. The unique characteristics of hypersonic weapons, including their unpredictable trajectories and high speeds, significantly reduce the response time for adversaries, potentially encouraging pre-emptive strikes and altering traditional deterrence strategies [7, 8].

The development of hypersonic weapons is not merely a technological challenge but also an economic one, as nations invest heavily in research and development to maintain strategic advantages. The arms race surrounding hypersonic technology reflects broader geopolitical tensions and the desire for military superiority. This competition is likely to drive further innovations in both offensive and defensive capabilities, as nations seek to counter the threats posed by hypersonic systems [5, 9]. The implications extend beyond immediate military applications, as advancements in hypersonic technology could influence future warfare strategies and international relations [2, 10].

Hypersonic weapons are a transformative element in modern military arsenals, offering unprecedented speed and manoeuvrability that challenge existing defence frameworks. Their development is indicative of a broader trend in military technology, where speed and precision are paramount, and the implications for global security and military strategy are profound and far-reaching [11, 12].

Hypersonic weapons are primarily categorized into two types: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs) and Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs). Each type exhibits distinct operational characteristics and capabilities that enhance their effectiveness in modern warfare.

Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs) are launched into the upper atmosphere using a rocket and then glide towards their targets at hypersonic speeds, typically exceeding Mach 5. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles, which follow a predictable trajectory, HGVs possess the ability to manoeuvre during flight. This manoeuvrability is a critical feature that complicates interception efforts by missile defence systems. HGVs are characterized by their high speed, precision, and strong manoeuvrability, which allow them to operate in near-space environments with minimal power requirements during the glide phase [13-15]. The trajectory design and guidance methods for HGVs are essential areas of research, focusing on optimizing their flight paths to enhance penetration capabilities against advanced defence systems [16-18].

In contrast, Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs) utilize advanced propulsion systems, such as scramjets, to maintain sustained hypersonic flight. These missiles can operate at lower altitudes compared to HGVs, which further complicates detection and interception by defence systems. HCMs are designed for rapid response and can strike targets with high precision, making them formidable components of modern military arsenals [19, 20]. The integration of sophisticated guidance laws and control systems is crucial for HCMs, as they must navigate complex environments while maintaining hypersonic speeds [21, 22]. The development of these systems involves addressing challenges related to aerodynamics, thermal management, and trajectory optimization to ensure effective performance during their operational phases [23-25].

Both HGVs and HCMs represent a shift in military strategy, emphasizing speed, manoeuvrability, and the ability to evade traditional defence mechanisms. The ongoing research and development in this field aim to enhance the capabilities of these hypersonic weapons, ensuring they remain effective against evolving threats in the global security landscape [11, 26, 27].

Hypersonic weapons are characterized by several key features that enhance their effectiveness on the battlefield. These characteristics include speed, manoeuvrability, range, and survivability, each contributing to their strategic advantages over traditional missile systems.

Speed is one of the most defining characteristics of hypersonic weapons, as they travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5. This high velocity drastically reduces the reaction time available for defence systems to intercept them, making traditional missile defence strategies less effective. For instance, Cernat notes that hypersonic missiles can achieve speeds over five times the speed of sound, complicating interception efforts by conventional systems [2]. Additionally, Chekov emphasizes that the combination of speed and manoeuvrability makes these weapons particularly destabilizing in military contexts [28].

Manoeuvrability is another critical feature that distinguishes hypersonic weapons from conventional ballistic missiles. Unlike their traditional counterparts, hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) can change direction mid-flight, allowing them to evade interceptors and complicate defence strategies. Xue et al. [13] highlight that hypersonic vehicles possess operational advantages such as efficient penetration and wide-range manoeuvrability, which are essential for avoiding detection and interception. This capability is further supported by the findings of Fan et al. [20], who describe HGVs as rapid strike weapons capable of gliding long distances while maintaining high speeds.

The range of hypersonic weapons is also noteworthy, as they can cover vast distances quickly, making them suitable for long-range precision strikes. According to Chen et al., hypersonic weapons are designed for long-range fast strike capabilities, which enhances their operational effectiveness [29]. The ability to strike targets from significant distances with high precision is a game-changer in modern warfare, as it allows for rapid response to threats and the ability to engage targets that are far beyond the reach of traditional systems.

Finally, the survivability of hypersonic weapons is enhanced by their speed and manoeuvrability, which pose significant challenges to current missile defence technologies. As noted by McFarland [30], the development of hypersonic weapons by major powers like the US, China, and Russia aims to create systems that can evade existing defence mechanisms, thereby increasing their effectiveness in combat scenarios. The combination of high speed and the ability to manoeuvre makes these weapons particularly difficult to track and intercept, as highlighted by Wright [31], who discusses the implications of hypersonic missile proliferation and the challenges they pose to strategic stability.

Hypersonic weapons are currently being developed and deployed by several countries, notably the United States, Russia, China, and India. These nations are engaged in a significant arms race to enhance their military capabilities through hypersonic technology, which offers advantages such as speed, manoeuvrability, and the ability to evade traditional missile defence systems [2, 4, 5].

The United States has been actively pursuing hypersonic weapon systems, with multiple programs underway aimed at developing both hypersonic cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles. The U.S. Department of Defense has emphasized the strategic importance of these weapons, asserting that they will provide revolutionary capabilities that challenge existing defence frameworks [4, 32]. Russia has also made substantial advancements, with operational hypersonic systems such as the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile and the Zircon cruise missile already being deployed [33]. These systems exemplify the potential of hypersonic technology to alter the balance of power in military engagements.

China is similarly advancing its hypersonic capabilities, reportedly developing a range of hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles designed to enhance its strategic deterrence and strike capabilities [2, 5]. The Chinese military's focus on hypersonic technology is part of a broader strategy to counteract U.S. military dominance in the Asia-Pacific region [4]. Additionally, India has entered the hypersonic arms race, with ongoing projects aimed at developing indigenous hypersonic missile systems, reflecting its strategic priorities in regional security [34].

The proliferation of hypersonic weapons is not limited to these major powers. Emerging trends suggest that other nations, particularly in Europe and Asia, may soon pursue similar capabilities. The technological advancements and the perceived necessity for hypersonic systems could lead to a broader diffusion of this technology, potentially destabilizing global security dynamics [31]. As hypersonic weapons become more accessible, the implications for arms control and strategic stability will be profound, necessitating a re-evaluation of existing frameworks to address the challenges posed by these advanced systems [35, 36].

The following provides some examples of hypersonic missiles developed or in development by major military powers:

1. Russia: Avangard

Type: Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV)

Speed: Estimated to exceed Mach 20 (over 15,000 mph or 24,000 km/h)

Capabilities: Launched atop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Avangard can glide and manoeuvre at hypersonic speeds, making it difficult to intercept. It is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Status: Reportedly deployed in Russia since 2019.

Figure 1: The UR-100UTTKh ICBM launched from the Dombarovsky Air Base carrying the Avangard. Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

The Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) developed by Russia represents a significant advancement in military technology, characterized by its remarkable speed, manoeuvrability, and payload versatility. The Avangard is reported to exceed speeds of Mach 20, translating to over 15,000 mph (24,000 km/h), which positions it among the fastest military vehicles currently in existence [13, 15, 37]. This extraordinary speed is achieved through its operational design, which involves launching atop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before gliding unpowered through the atmosphere, utilizing aerodynamic lift to maintain its trajectory [14, 16].

One of the defining features of the Avangard is its ability to manoeuvre during flight, which significantly complicates interception efforts by missile defence systems. The vehicle's design allows it to navigate through a series of flight phases, including an initial powered ascent followed by a gliding phase where it can adjust its trajectory in response to threats or obstacles [17, 38]. This capability is crucial for evading interception, as traditional missile defence systems are typically optimized for predictable ballistic trajectories rather than the erratic paths that HGVs can take [39, 40]. The Avangard can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, enhancing its strategic deterrent role within Russia's military arsenal [15, 41].

Since its reported deployment in 2019, the Avangard has been a focal point of international military discourse, highlighting the growing importance of hypersonic technologies in modern warfare. The vehicle's operational status has been confirmed by various military assessments, indicating that it is fully integrated into Russia's strategic capabilities [24, 42]. The implications of such technology extend beyond mere speed; they encompass a shift in defence strategies globally, as nations seek to develop countermeasures against hypersonic threats [43, 44].

2. China: DF-ZF (Dong Feng - Zhengfeng)

Type: Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV)

Speed: Estimated to reach speeds between Mach 5 and Mach 10 (3,800 to 7,600 mph or 6,174 to 12,348 km/h)

Capabilities: The DF-ZF can be mounted on various Chinese ballistic missiles, including the DF-17, which is believed to have an operational range of 1,000 to 1,500 miles. It is designed for high-speed, unpredictable manoeuvring to avoid interception.

Status: Reportedly operational.

Figure 2: The Dongfeng-17 missile launch vehicle exhibited at the Beijing Exhibition Center's Striving for a New Era thematic achievement exhibition. Yiyuanju, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

The DF-ZF (Dong Feng - Zhengfeng) is a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) developed by China, designed to enhance its strategic military capabilities. This vehicle is reported to achieve speeds estimated between Mach 5 and Mach 10, translating to approximately 3,800 to 7,600 mph (6,174 to 12,348 km/h) [45]. The operational speed range positions the DF-ZF among the fastest military technologies currently in development, allowing it to evade traditional missile defence systems effectively.

The DF-ZF is engineered to be versatile, capable of being mounted on various Chinese ballistic missiles, including the DF-17. The DF-17 itself is believed to have an operational range of 1,000 to 1,500 miles, which complements the DF-ZF's hypersonic capabilities by enabling it to strike targets at considerable distances with high precision [46]. The design of the DF-ZF emphasizes high-speed, unpredictable manoeuvring, which is crucial for avoiding interception by enemy defence systems. This capability is particularly significant in modern warfare, where rapid response and evasion tactics are essential for maintaining strategic advantages [47].

As of recent reports, the DF-ZF is considered operational, indicating that it has progressed beyond the testing phase and is now part of China's active military arsenal [48]. The operational status of the DF-ZF reflects China's commitment to advancing its hypersonic technology, which is a focal point in the current global arms race. The development of such advanced weaponry not only enhances China's deterrence capabilities but also raises concerns among other nations regarding regional and global security dynamics [49].

3. United States: AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW)

Type: Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV)

Speed: Expected to reach speeds of Mach 5 to Mach 8 (3,835 to 6,100 mph or 6,174 to 9,656 km/h)

Capabilities: Launched from an aircraft, the ARRW is designed to engage high-value, time-sensitive targets with precision. Its ability to travel at hypersonic speeds makes it difficult to detect and intercept.

Status: Under development, with tests continuing as of 2023.

Figure 3: B-52 out of EDW carries ARRW IMV asset for its first captive carry flight over Edwards Air Force Base. U.S. Air Force / Christopher Okula - Edwards Air Force Base, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

The AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) represents a significant advancement in the United States' hypersonic weapon capabilities. As a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), the ARRW is designed to achieve speeds ranging from Mach 5 to Mach 8, translating to approximately 3,835 to 6,100 mph (6,174 to 9,656 km/h) [4, 50]. This remarkable speed is a defining characteristic of hypersonic weapons, which are classified as vehicles traveling faster than five times the speed of sound. The development of such weapons has become a focal point in the strategic military landscape, as they pose substantial challenges to existing defence systems due to their high velocity and manoeuvrability, making them difficult to detect and intercept [2, 5].

The capabilities of the ARRW are particularly noteworthy. It is designed to be launched from aircraft, allowing for rapid deployment against high-value, time-sensitive targets with precision [51]. The hypersonic speed of the ARRW not only enhances its strike capability but also complicates the adversary's defence strategies, as traditional missile defence systems are often ill-equipped to counter such fast-moving threats [2, 7]. The ongoing development and testing of the ARRW, as of 2023, underscore the United States' commitment to maintaining a technological edge in hypersonic warfare [52].

The status of the ARRW is currently under development, with testing phases actively ongoing. This reflects a broader trend among major powers, including the United States, Russia, and China, who are engaged in a competitive race to develop hypersonic weapons [4, 35]. The strategic implications of these developments are profound, as hypersonic weapons like the ARRW could potentially alter the dynamics of military engagements and deterrence strategies globally [5, 53]. The emphasis on hypersonic technology is not merely a response to existing threats but also a proactive measure to ensure that the United States remains at the forefront of military innovation [54].

4. Russia: 3M22 Zircon (Tsirkon)

Type: Hypersonic Cruise Missile (HCM)

Speed: Capable of flying at speeds of up to Mach 9 (approximately 6,900 mph or 11,000 km/h)

Capabilities: Designed primarily for anti-ship operations, the Zircon can be launched from surface ships or submarines. It can travel at low altitudes, making it harder to detect and intercept.

Status: In the final stages of testing and expected to enter service soon.

The 3M22 Zircon (Tsirkon) is a hypersonic cruise missile developed by Russia, designed primarily for anti-ship operations. It is capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 9, which translates to approximately 6,900 mph or 11,000 km/h, making it one of the fastest missiles in existence [55]. The missile's design allows it to be launched from both surface ships and submarines, enhancing its versatility in naval warfare. Its ability to fly at low altitudes significantly complicates detection and interception efforts by enemy defence systems, thereby increasing its operational effectiveness [56].

The Zircon's development is currently in the final stages of testing, with expectations for it to enter service imminently. This status reflects a broader trend in military technology where nations are increasingly investing in hypersonic capabilities to maintain strategic advantages [57]. The missile's advanced features, including its speed and low-altitude flight profile, are indicative of a significant leap in missile technology, which poses new challenges for existing missile defence systems [56].

Moreover, the testing of the Zircon involves sophisticated tracking and telemetry systems that are crucial for evaluating missile performance during flight tests. These systems utilize a combination of electro-optical tracking stations and radar to ensure accurate data collection and analysis, which is essential for refining missile capabilities [58]. The integration of advanced guidance systems further enhances the missile's precision and effectiveness in combat scenarios [59].

5. India: BrahMos-II

Type: Hypersonic Cruise Missile (HCM)

Speed: Expected to reach speeds of Mach 7 (around 5,370 mph or 8,650 km/h)

Capabilities: A joint venture between India and Russia, the BrahMos-II missile is designed for anti-ship and land-attack missions. It is the successor to the highly successful BrahMos-I, which is a supersonic cruise missile.

Status: Under development.

The BrahMos-II missile, a hypersonic cruise missile (HCM) under development as a joint venture between India and Russia, is anticipated to achieve speeds of up to Mach 7, approximately 5,370 mph or 8,650 km/h. This missile is designed for both anti-ship and land-attack missions, serving as a successor to the BrahMos-I, which is recognized for its supersonic capabilities. The development of hypersonic missiles like BrahMos-II is significant due to their potential to evade existing missile defence systems, enhancing strike efficiency and operational effectiveness in modern warfare scenarios.

Hypersonic weapons, including cruise missiles, are characterized by their high speed and manoeuvrability, which complicates interception efforts by traditional defence systems. The BrahMos-II, leveraging advanced scramjet technology, is expected to operate effectively at hypersonic speeds, thus presenting a formidable challenge to adversaries' air defence capabilities [32]. The missile's design incorporates features that allow it to maintain high velocities while executing complex flight paths, which is crucial for penetrating enemy defences [60].

The strategic implications of BrahMos-II's development are profound, particularly in the context of regional security dynamics. As nations like India enhance their hypersonic capabilities, the balance of power in South Asia may shift, prompting responses from neighbouring countries, particularly China and Pakistan [61]. The BrahMos-II's anticipated capabilities could serve as a deterrent against potential aggressors, reinforcing India's military posture in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Furthermore, the BrahMos-II is part of a broader trend in military technology where hypersonic systems are increasingly sought after for their ability to deliver payloads with minimal warning and high precision. The integration of advanced navigation systems and the ability to execute coordinated attacks further enhance its operational utility [24]. The ongoing development of BrahMos-II reflects not only technological advancements but also strategic considerations that underscore the importance of maintaining a competitive edge in missile technology.

6. France: ASN4G

Type: Hypersonic Cruise Missile (HCM)

Speed: Estimated to exceed Mach 5

Capabilities: This missile is expected to replace the current air-launched nuclear missile in France’s arsenal. It will be capable of high-speed strikes and nuclear deterrence.

Status: In development.

The ASN4G, a hypersonic cruise missile (HCM) currently under development in France, is designed to exceed speeds of Mach 5, thereby significantly enhancing France's military capabilities. This missile is intended to replace the existing air-launched nuclear missile in France's arsenal, thereby reinforcing its nuclear deterrence strategy. The development of hypersonic missiles like the ASN4G is a response to evolving global security dynamics, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions that have highlighted the need for advanced military technologies.

Hypersonic missiles, including the ASN4G, are characterized by their ability to fly at lower altitudes than traditional ballistic missiles, which complicates detection and interception by existing missile defence systems. This feature is crucial for maintaining a strategic advantage, as hypersonic missiles can evade early-warning radars and strike targets with minimal warning [3, 62]. The ASN4G's capabilities align with the broader trend of military modernization among major powers, where hypersonic technology is increasingly seen as essential for effective deterrence and rapid response [31, 63].

The strategic implications of the ASN4G extend beyond mere speed; its development reflects a shift in France's nuclear posture. The missile is expected to play a critical role in ensuring assured retaliation, a key component of nuclear deterrence. The integration of hypersonic capabilities into France's nuclear arsenal could alter the strategic calculus of potential adversaries, as the speed and manoeuvrability of such missiles may render existing missile defences obsolete [7]. Furthermore, the ASN4G's development is indicative of a broader trend in Europe, where several nations are exploring or advancing their own hypersonic capabilities in response to perceived threats [31].

As the ASN4G progresses through its development phases, it is essential to consider the implications for international arms control and strategic stability. The proliferation of hypersonic technologies poses challenges to existing frameworks, such as the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which seeks to regulate missile technology transfers [32]. The potential for hypersonic missiles to destabilize regional security dynamics cannot be overlooked, as their deployment may provoke arms races and increase the risk of miscalculation during crises [36].

These hypersonic missiles represent a significant leap in military technology, combining speed, manoeuvrability, and range, making them formidable tools in modern warfare and driving a global hypersonic arms race.

Manoeuvrability

Hypersonic weapons, particularly Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), stand out from traditional ballistic missiles due to their ability to manoeuvre unpredictably during flight. Unlike ballistic missiles, which follow a largely fixed, predictable trajectory once launched, hypersonic glide vehicles are designed to make continuous adjustments to their flight path. This dynamic ability to alter course in mid-flight creates a formidable challenge for current missile defence systems, which rely on tracking and predicting an incoming missile's trajectory to intercept it. Hypersonic weapons break this predictability, giving them a tactical advantage that increases their effectiveness in penetrating even the most advanced defence networks.

In the glide phase, HGVs are launched into the upper atmosphere by rockets, much like ballistic missiles. However, after reaching a certain altitude, the vehicle disengages from its booster and begins to glide toward its target at hypersonic speeds. During this phase, the weapon can make constant small adjustments to its trajectory, altering its direction and altitude to evade detection and tracking. This manoeuvrability is a key feature of HGVs and is one of the main reasons why these weapons are so difficult to intercept. Traditional missile defence systems are designed to predict an incoming missile's path, but the ability of HGVs to continually change their direction makes such predictions highly unreliable. This also complicates the timing and targeting of interceptors, as HGVs can appear to be heading in one direction before quickly veering off-course.

In the terminal phase of their flight, just before reaching the target, both Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs) and some HGVs can perform additional evasive manoeuvres. The terminal phase is crucial because it is the point at which missile defence systems would typically attempt to intercept the weapon. However, hypersonic weapons' ability to alter their path in this phase makes interception extremely difficult. For HCMs, which are powered by scramjet engines throughout their flight, manoeuvrability is retained due to the air-breathing nature of their propulsion. As a result, HCMs can fly at lower altitudes and execute complex, evasive manoeuvres as they approach their target.

In this final stage, HGVs can also increase their manoeuvrability by adjusting their angle, speed, and flight path. This capability is especially useful in evading last-minute attempts by defence systems to track and destroy the weapon. Even if a missile defence system manages to lock onto the weapon, the unpredictable movement in the terminal phase increases the likelihood that the interceptors will miss their target. This manoeuvrability in the final phase not only allows hypersonic weapons to evade interception but also increases the precision of their strikes, enabling them to hit high-value targets with greater accuracy.

Distinguishing Hypersonic Weapon Systems

While speed is often emphasized as a defining feature of hypersonic missiles, it is not the only factor that distinguishes these weapons from other missile systems. Many ballistic missiles, which predate hypersonic missile technology by nearly a century, also achieve speeds far in excess of Mach 5. For instance, the V-2, the ancestor of modern ballistic missiles, could reach speeds exceeding Mach 5 during both ascent and re-entry in the 1940s. However, no one would classify the V-2 as a hypersonic missile because it lacks the other critical characteristics that define modern hypersonic systems [64].

Modern intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) often achieve speeds exceeding Mach 20 during certain phases of their flight, particularly during ascent and re-entry, but they are not typically referred to as hypersonic weapons either. This is because, despite their extreme speeds, ballistic missiles follow predictable trajectories and lack the manoeuvrability that characterizes hypersonic weapons. Therefore, the label of hypersonic missile applies not just based on speed, but also on the weapon’s ability to manoeuvre during flight while traveling at hypersonic speeds through the atmosphere [64].

Hypersonic weapons are commonly defined by a combination of two key features: speed exceeding Mach 5, and the ability to manoeuvre both vertically and horizontally while traveling at these speeds. This manoeuvrability is what sets hypersonic missiles apart from traditional ballistic missiles, which follow parabolic trajectories and are much easier for missile defence systems to predict and intercept. While public discussions, media reports, and even definitions found on platforms like Wikipedia often emphasize speed alone, experts in the field recognize that manoeuvrability is just as crucial in defining hypersonic weapons. As the US Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance points out, hypersonic weapons are unique not just because they travel faster than Mach 5, but because they can manoeuvre throughout their entire flight path, making them much harder to intercept [64].

The manoeuvrability of hypersonic weapons presents significant challenges to missile defence systems, which are designed to track and intercept missiles based on predictable flight paths. Ballistic missiles, for example, can be intercepted because their arc-like trajectories are relatively straightforward to calculate once they are detected. Hypersonic missiles, however, can adjust their altitude, speed, and direction mid-flight, evading traditional interception methods. The ability to alter their flight path makes hypersonic weapons a game-changer in modern military strategy, as they can potentially bypass even the most advanced missile defence systems [64].

Types of Hypersonic Weapons (Glide Vehicles, Cruise Missiles)

Hypersonic weapons are generally divided into two main categories: hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs) and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). Both types of missiles travel at hypersonic speeds, but they differ in terms of their propulsion systems and flight characteristics.

However it should be noted that hypersonic missiles can also be categorised as aero-ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, and hypersonic cruise missiles to account for older technologies. Each type employs distinct mechanisms to achieve and sustain hypersonic speeds, which are generally defined as speeds exceeding Mach 5.

Aero-ballistic missiles, such as Russia's Kinzhal, are launched from aircraft and utilize rocket propulsion to reach hypersonic speeds before following a ballistic trajectory. This system allows for rapid deployment and high-speed strikes, making interception challenging due to its unpowered flight phase after the initial boost. The Kinzhal missile has been reported to reach speeds of Mach 10 and perform evasive manoeuvres, complicating defence strategies against it [65, 66]. The development of such systems dates back to the 1980s, highlighting a long-standing interest in hypersonic technology [67].

Figure 4: Training mockup 9-S-7760-EDM of Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-surface missile mounted on Russian Air Force MiG-31K, blue 36, registration RF-92462 on static display at military-technical forum Army-2022, Kubinka Air Base, Moscow region, Russian Federation. Boevaya mashina, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs) maintain a constant hypersonic speed and typically travel at a fixed altitude throughout their flight. These missiles are powered continuously by engines—often scramjet or ramjet engines—that enable them to sustain high speeds across long distances. HCMs are particularly effective for long-range precision strikes, as their propulsion system allows them to fly at consistent speeds and altitudes, making them ideal for targeting distant threats.

In contrast, Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs) are typically launched by ballistic missiles in what is known as a boost-glide system. After the initial rocket launch propels the vehicle to high altitudes, the HGV detaches from the booster and glides back through the atmosphere toward its target at hypersonic speeds. During this glide phase, the vehicle is unpowered but can still manoeuvre, using its speed and altitude to evade detection and interception. HGVs are particularly well-suited for evading missile defence systems because they can make complex, unpredictable manoeuvres during the descent phase of their flight.

When comparing hypersonic missiles to ballistic missiles, several factors come into play, including speed, range, and the time it takes to reach a target. Ballistic missiles, which follow a parabolic trajectory, generally reach their targets more quickly than hypersonic missiles at distances beyond 600 to 800 kilometres, especially during the ascent phase when they reach extreme speeds. However, Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs) traveling at a constant speed of Mach 5 tend to be faster than ballistic missiles at ranges beyond 1,900 to 2,500 kilometres, depending on the altitude at which they are flying.

Because HGVs are launched by ballistic missiles, their time to target depends largely on the trajectory of the booster rocket and the manoeuvres performed during the glide phase. The ability to manoeuvre, combined with their speed, makes hypersonic missiles highly versatile and difficult to defend against, but the challenges of maintaining precision, survivability, and managing heat loads make their development technically demanding.

Aero-Ballistic Missiles

Aero-ballistic missiles represent a significant evolution in missile technology, combining features of both traditional ballistic missiles and air-launched systems. These missiles are characterized by their launch from aircraft, allowing them to utilize high altitudes and speeds at launch, which enhances their operational effectiveness. The Kinzhal missile, specifically the Kh-47M2 variant developed by Russia, exemplifies this technology and has garnered attention for its unique capabilities.

Aside from Russia's Kinzhal missile, several other aero-ballistic missiles have been developed or are under development by various countries. These missiles are characterized by their air-launch capability and their ability to travel along a semi-ballistic trajectory, combining elements of both ballistic and cruise missiles. Here are notable examples of aero-ballistic missiles:

1. AGM-183A ARRW (Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon) – United States

Country: United States

Overview: The AGM-183A ARRW is a U.S. Air Force program designed to deliver a hypersonic missile launched from an aircraft. The missile is a boost-glide system, meaning that after being launched from an aircraft, it uses a rocket booster to accelerate to hypersonic speeds before releasing a glide vehicle that travels at very high speeds toward its target.

Speed: Reported speeds of Mach 5 to Mach 20.

Range: Estimated range is around 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometres).

Purpose: The ARRW is designed for long-range strike missions, targeting high-value enemy assets. It is meant to provide the U.S. with a hypersonic strike capability that can bypass current air defence systems.

2. Iskander-M (SS-26 Stone) – Russia

Country: Russia

Overview: The Iskander-M is a short-range tactical missile system developed by Russia. Although primarily a ground-launched ballistic missile, some variations and modifications have been tested as air-launched systems. The missile has a semi-ballistic flight path and can perform high-speed manoeuvres during flight, making it difficult to intercept.

Speed: Capable of traveling at speeds between Mach 6 to Mach 7.

Range: Up to 500 kilometres (310 miles).

Purpose: The Iskander-M is designed to destroy missile defence systems, command centres, and other high-value targets. Its versatility and ability to perform evasive manoeuvres make it a formidable weapon in regional conflicts.

Figure 5: A launcher 9P78-1 of Russian missile system 9K720 Iskander in foreground and a transloader 9T250 in the background shown at Alabino training ground during military technical forum ARMY-2016. Boevaya mashina, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Figure 6: Iskander/SS-26 Stone launch cruise missile. Ermaleksandr, Public Domain, via Flickr.

3. ASMP-A (Air-Sol Moyenne Portée Amélioré) – France

Country: France

Overview: The ASMP-A is a nuclear-capable aero-ballistic missile designed by France as part of its nuclear deterrence strategy. It is launched from fighter jets, including the Rafale, and follows a semi-ballistic trajectory. The ASMP-A is the primary nuclear delivery system for the French Air Force.

Speed: Approximately Mach 3.

Range: Around 500 kilometres (310 miles).

Purpose: The ASMP-A is designed to carry a nuclear warhead and is part of France's strategic nuclear deterrent. It provides the French military with a fast, precise nuclear delivery system.

Figure 7: ASMP-A. David Monniaux, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

4. Kh-15 (AS-16 ‘Kickback’) – Russia

Country: Russia (formerly Soviet Union)

Overview: The Kh-15, also known by its NATO designation AS-16 Kickback, is an air-launched nuclear-capable ballistic missile. It was developed during the Cold War and is launched from Tu-22M, Tu-95, or Tu-160 strategic bombers. After launch, it climbs to high altitudes before diving down to its target at high speeds.

Speed: Capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 5.

Range: Between 150 and 300 kilometres (93 to 186 miles).

Purpose: Designed for tactical nuclear strikes, the Kh-15 was developed as an air-launched system capable of penetrating enemy defences and delivering nuclear payloads against hardened targets.

5. Kh-22 (AS-4 ‘Kitchen’) – Russia

Country: Russia (formerly Soviet Union)

Overview: The Kh-22 is a long-range, air-launched missile that was originally designed to destroy aircraft carriers and large naval vessels. It is launched from bombers like the Tu-22M and follows a high-speed, semi-ballistic flight path. A modernized version, the Kh-32, has improved speed and range.

Speed: Mach 4 to Mach 5.

Range: Up to 600 kilometres (370 miles).

Purpose: The Kh-22 is primarily an anti-ship missile, capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear warheads. It was developed to be used against high-value maritime targets such as aircraft carriers and large surface ships.

6. Ra'ad-II (Hatf-VIII) – Pakistan

Country: Pakistan

Overview: The Ra'ad-II is an air-launched cruise missile developed by Pakistan, based on an earlier version, the Ra'ad. It has a semi-ballistic flight path and is designed for nuclear or conventional payloads. It can be launched from aircraft such as the JF-17 Thunder or the Mirage III.

Speed: Supersonic but not hypersonic, with some reports suggesting speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 3.

Range: Approximately 600 kilometres (370 miles).

Purpose: Ra'ad-II is part of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent and can be used for precision strikes against strategic targets. It is designed to be able to evade detection and missile defences.

7. Kh-47M2 Kinzhal – Russia

Country: Russia

Overview: While already mentioned, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal deserves a special mention as one of the most advanced aero-ballistic missiles in the world. The Kinzhal is an air-launched hypersonic missile capable of striking ground and naval targets.

Speed: Up to Mach 10.

Range: Up to 2,000 kilometres (1,243 miles).

Purpose: The Kinzhal is designed for anti-ship and land-attack missions, and its speed and manoeuvrability make it difficult to intercept. It can carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead.

An aero-ballistic missile is defined by its air-launch capability and its subsequent ballistic trajectory. Unlike conventional ballistic missiles that are launched from ground-based platforms, aero-ballistic missiles are deployed from aircraft, which allows them to achieve greater initial velocity and altitude. This air-launch method provides a tactical advantage, as it enables the missile to evade ground-based detection systems during its ascent phase [65]. Once launched, these missiles follow a high-speed, arcing trajectory influenced by gravity and momentum, similar to traditional ballistic missiles, but with enhanced manoeuvrability that complicates interception efforts [65, 67].

The Kinzhal missile is a prime example of an aero-ballistic missile, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 10 (approximately 12,250 km/h) and performing evasive manoeuvres throughout its flight [65]. This combination of speed and agility makes it particularly challenging for existing missile defence systems to track and intercept, as these systems are typically designed for slower, more predictable targets [65]. Moreover, the Kinzhal's operational range of around 2,000 kilometres allows it to strike targets far beyond the reach of its launch platform, enhancing its strategic utility [65].

The Kinzhal missile's design incorporates several advanced features that contribute to its effectiveness as a weapon system. Its hypersonic speed significantly reduces the time available for interception, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful strikes against high-value targets such as naval vessels and missile defence installations [65, 67]. Additionally, the missile's ability to manoeuvre in-flight complicates the targeting process for missile defence systems, which may struggle to adapt to its unpredictable trajectory [65, 67].

The Kinzhal is launched from modified MiG-31K fighter jets, which not only provide a high-speed and high-altitude launch platform but also extend the missile's operational range [65]. This air-launch capability allows the Kinzhal to engage targets from a safe distance, minimizing the risk to the aircraft carrying it. Furthermore, the missile can be equipped with either conventional or nuclear warheads, offering flexibility in its deployment for various military scenarios [65].

The introduction of the Kinzhal missile has significant implications for military strategy and deterrence. It fits within Russia's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, which aims to restrict adversaries' movements