Shifting Sands

Shifting Sands

Gulf Countries, BRICS, and the New World Order

GEW Intelligence Unit

Global East-West for Research & Studies

Copyright © [2023] GEW Intelligence Unit (The Voice of The Mediterranean).

Collection: Geopolitics. Editor: Hichem Karoui.

ISBN (Ebook): 978-1-78795-086-3

ISBN (Print):978-1-78795-085-6

Global East-West for Research & Studies

All rights reserved.

No portion of this book may be reproduced in any form without written permission from the publisher or author except as permitted by copyright law.

Contents

Motivation and Objectives of the Book

Introduction

1.The Rise of the Rest: Shifting Power Dynamics in the Global Order

2.The Significance of the BRICS+ Consortium

3.The Gulf Cooperation Council: A Historical Perspective

4.The BRICS+ Consortium: Economic Perspectives

5.Economic Growth and Development Patterns among BRICS+ Countries

6.Trade and Investment Relations within BRICS+ and with the Gulf Countries

7.Innovation and Technological Advancements in BRICS+ Economies

8.Role of BRICS+ in Addressing Global Economic Challenges

9.Gulf Cooperation Council: Energy Dynamics

10.History of the GCC as Global Energy Suppliers

11.Energy Resources and Production Capacities of GCC Countries

12.Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics in the Global Market

13.The Impact of GCC Energy Policies on the Global Economy

14.BRICS+ and Gulf Cooperation Council: Intersecting Interests

15.A Comparative Analysis of BRICS+ and GCC Alliances

16.Complementarities and Potential Collaborations Between BRICS+ and Gulf Countries

17.Opportunities for Economic and Technological Partnerships

18.Mutual Challenges and Ways to Overcome Them

19.Geopolitical Implications: BRICS+, the Gulf, and the United States

20.The Role of the United States in the Changing Global Order

21.US Relations with BRICS+ and the Gulf Countries

22.Power Struggles and Realignment of Geopolitical Alliances

23.The Role of BRICS+ and the GCC in Reshaping the Global Political Landscape

24.Strategic and Economic Convergence Between BRICS+ and Gulf Cooperation Council

25.Security Cooperation and Military Capabilities of BRICS+ and the Gulf Countries

26.Counterterrorism Efforts and Regional Security Challenges

27.Infrastructure Development and Connectivity Initiatives

28.Mutual Benefits and the Potential for Enhanced Cooperation

29.Implications for the Global Order

30.The BRICS+ Consortium and Its Impact on the Western Dominance

31.The Role of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Global Affairs

32.Future Scenarios: Convergence, Divergence, or Multipolarity?

33.Implications for Policymakers and Global Decision-Making Institutions

34.Case Studies: BRICS+-GCC Collaborations

35.Case Study 2: Technological Exchanges and Innovation Partnerships

36.Case Study 3: Cultural Diplomacy and People-to-People Exchanges

37.Case Study 4: Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

38.Recommendations and Strategies

39.Policy Recommendations for BRICS+ and Gulf Cooperation Council

40.Strengthening Economic and Trade Relations between BRICS+ and GCC

41.Enhancing Collaboration in Security, Counterterrorism, and Regional Stability

42.Promoting Multilateralism and Global Governance Reforms

43.Conclusion

44.Key Findings and Insights from the Book

45.The ongoing Relationship between BRICS+ and the Gulf Cooperation Council

46.The Future of the Global Order and the Role of BRICS+ and Gulf Countries

References For Further Reading

Motivation and Objectives of the Book

The global order is transforming significantly, with shifting power dynamics and emerging multilateral alliances. One such alliance that has gained momentum in recent years is the BRICS+ consortium. Comprising the five BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and other countries, the BRICS+ consortium is steadily establishing itself as a major force in the global economy. This book aims to delve deeper into the economic perspectives and potential of the BRICS+ consortium, shedding light on various aspects of its influence and impact.

One major aspect this book will explore is the economic growth and development patterns within the BRICS+ consortium. Despite varying levels of development and different economic models, these countries collectively represent a significant share of the world's population and GDP. By conducting a comparative analysis of their economic policies, structural reforms, and growth strategies, this book aims to provide insights into the future trajectory of the consortium.

With its vast natural resources and agricultural potential, Brazil has been focusing on diversifying its economy, reducing income inequality, and fostering innovation. As a major oil and gas producer, Russia has been working on enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and promoting technological advancements through research and development. India, with its expanding middle class and robust service industry, has been emphasising infrastructure development, foreign investment, and sustainable growth. China, the world's second-largest economy, has been transitioning from an export-oriented economy to a consumption-driven model while investing heavily in innovation, renewable energy, and infrastructure domestically and globally. Despite being the smallest economy among the BRICS, South Africa possesses significant mineral resources and has been promoting inclusive growth, sustainable development, and regional integration in Africa.

Additionally, this book will explore the potential challenges and opportunities these countries present as they navigate the complexities of global trade and investment relations. It will examine the impact of trade wars, protectionism, and geopolitical tensions on the economic trajectories of the BRICS+ countries. It will also analyse the role of international institutions such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in shaping the global economic landscape and influencing the policies and strategies of the consortium.

Trade and investment relations will be another key focus of this book. Member countries of the BRICS+ consortium have been actively expanding their economic ties with each other and other regions. This book will explore the evolving trade patterns and investment flows, identifying key sectors and highlighting potential areas for further collaboration. It will examine the role of regional trade agreements, such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), in facilitating trade between the BRICS countries and their respective regions. By analysing the trade dynamics and exploring the role of foreign direct investment, it seeks to uncover the driving forces behind the growing interdependence within the consortium.

Innovation is crucial for sustainable economic growth in today's world. This book will delve into the innovation ecosystems within the BRICS+ consortium, examining their intellectual property rights regimes, research and development capabilities, and strategic initiatives to foster innovation. By showcasing successful innovation case studies and identifying areas for collaboration, this book aims to highlight the consortium's potential to contribute to technological advancements and global innovation networks.

In addition to studying the BRICS+ consortium, this book acknowledges the historical significance and relevance of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). As a significant global energy supplier, the GCC has played a pivotal role in the geopolitics and energy dynamics of the Middle East and beyond. This book will examine the energy resources, production capacities, and energy policies of the GCC, analysing their impact on the global economy.

Furthermore, it will explore the diversification efforts the GCC countries undertake to reduce their dependence on hydrocarbon exports and transition towards sustainable and knowledge-based economies. This transition includes investments in renewable energy, infrastructure development, tourism, and promoting innovation and entrepreneurship.

This book aims to explore the intersecting interests between the BRICS+ consortium and the GCC. Both sides possess unique strengths and complementarities that can be leveraged for mutual benefit. By conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis of the economic, political, and strategic dimensions, this book aims to identify potential areas of collaboration, such as energy cooperation, infrastructure development, and technology transfer. It will explore the potential for joint initiatives that capitalise on the resources and expertise of both entities, ultimately contributing to the sustainable development and prosperity of their member nations.

The geopolitics of the BRICS+ consortium and the GCC also deserve attention. This book aims to analyse the changing global order, power struggles, and realignment of geopolitical alliances. It will examine the potential role of the BRICS+ consortium and the GCC in reshaping the global political landscape, particularly vis-a-vis the United States. It will evaluate the impact of geopolitical shifts on international trade and investment flows, as well as the influence of these alliances on regional stability and security.

Strategic and economic convergence between the BRICS+ consortium and the GCC will be another examination area. This book will explore the two entities' security cooperation, military capabilities, counterterrorism efforts, infrastructure development, and connectivity initiatives. By identifying converging interests and exploring avenues for enhanced cooperation, it seeks to foster a deeper understanding of the potential strategic partnerships that could emerge. Policymakers can benefit from this book's insights and policy recommendations to strengthen ties and bolster regional and global stability.

In conclusion, this book is motivated by the shifting power dynamics in the global order and the growing significance of the BRICS+ consortium and the GCC. By offering an in-depth analysis of their economic perspectives, trade and investment relations, innovation capacities, geopolitical implications, and strategic convergence, this book aims to comprehensively understand the emerging trends, potentials, and challenges for the global community. It strives to illuminate pathways for collaboration, cooperation, and sustainable development in a rapidly transforming world.

Introduction

The Rise of the Rest: Shifting Power Dynamics in the Global Order

The world order is undergoing significant transformations, shaped by the rise of new power players and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Western nations have dominated global affairs for centuries, dictating the course of international relations and shaping the global economic system. However, in recent decades, we have witnessed the emergence of new actors challenging this Western-centric order.

The Significance of the BRICS+ Consortium

The BRICS+ consortium, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other significant regional powers, has emerged as a formidable force in the global arena. This consortium is reshaping the global balance of power, contributing to a more multipolar world order. Each member of the BRICS+ consortium brings unique strengths and characteristics to the table, creating a diverse and complementary coalition.

Brazil, the largest economy in South America, possesses vast natural resources, including the Amazon rainforest and a wealth of mineral reserves. Its robust agricultural sector, fuelled by advanced agribusiness practises, not only serves domestic needs but also satisfies a significant portion of global food demand. Brazil's rapidly growing middle class has provided a substantial market for goods and services, driving economic growth and attracting foreign investment.

Russia, spanning across Eurasia, is the world's largest country. Its expansive landmass not only houses diverse ecosystems and natural resources but also extends geopolitical influence over Europe and Asia. Russia has become a key player in global energy markets, rich in energy resources, including oil, natural gas, and other minerals. Despite its economic dependence on energy exports, Russia has taken steps toward diversification, focusing on high-tech manufacturing, aerospace engineering, and nuclear technology sectors.

India, with its booming population of over 1.3 billion people, offers a massive market for goods and services. Its younger population and thriving information technology sector have positioned India as a global hub for innovation and entrepreneurship. Indian software engineers, entrepreneurs, and startups have left a remarkable imprint on the world, providing cutting-edge technological solutions and boosting the digital economy. As a result, India's presence in the global tech industry and its increasing influence in international organisations have been steadily rising.

China, the world's most populous country and second-largest economy has transformed into a global economic powerhouse. Its rapid industrialisation, embracing of technological innovation, and massive infrastructure projects, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, have propelled its rise globally. China's manufacturing capabilities, production scale, and growing consumer market make it an indispensable player in the global supply chain. Moreover, its leadership in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and emerging technologies positions China as a key influencer in shaping the future of various industries.

South Africa, the consortium's sole representative of the African continent, adds regional perspectives and resources. South Africa has established itself as a mining powerhouse with its vast mineral wealth, including gold, diamonds, platinum, and others. Furthermore, its financial sector, well-developed infrastructure, and tourism industry contribute to the country's economic strength within the consortium.

These diverse economies have fostered mutually beneficial relationships within the consortium, driving economic growth, fostering technological advancements, and furthering regional integration. Through strengthened trade ties, increased investment flows, and joint initiatives, the BRICS+ countries have gradually reduced their dependence on the Western-dominated global economic system, carving out their own path to prosperity.

The Gulf Cooperation Council: A Historical Perspective

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, is a regional force with immense economic and strategic significance. Geographically positioned amidst vital international trade routes, the GCC countries have been historically connected to global trade and cultural exchanges.

The discovery of vast oil reserves in the Gulf region during the 20th century transformed these nations from predominantly agrarian societies into global energy powerhouses. The plentiful oil revenues the Gulf nations generated fuelled their own economic development and impacted the global energy landscape. Their ability to control and influence oil production and prices endowed them with substantial economic, political, and strategic leverage on the world stage.

Over the years, the GCC countries have effectively utilised their oil wealth to invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and economic diversification. They have created thriving business hubs, such as Dubai and Bahrain, attracting multinational corporations, entrepreneurs, and skilled professionals worldwide. This influx of talent and investment has enhanced the Gulf region's capacity to innovate, develop new technologies, and create knowledge-based economies.

In recent years, the GCC countries have actively pursued ambitious economic diversification strategies to reduce their dependency on oil. Recognising the need to transition to sustainable and knowledge-based economies, they have focused on finance, tourism, logistics, information technology, and renewable energy sectors. These strategic initiatives aim to create employment opportunities for their growing populations, foster innovation, and attract foreign investments.

The GCC's geographic location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa has further bolstered its role as a vital transportation and logistics hub. Its world-class airports, extensive seaports, and efficient logistics infrastructure facilitate the movement of goods and services, enabling global trade and connectivity. The GCC's ability to connect and serve as a gateway to various regions has elevated its economic significance and enhanced its potential as an influential player in shaping global trade.

Motivation and Objectives of the Book

This book aims to explore the intersection between the BRICS+ consortium and the Gulf Cooperation Council, highlighting the economic, geopolitical, and strategic implications of their collaboration. By examining the converging interests of these two infuential entities, we seek to provide insight into the potential opportunities and challenges arising from their partnership. Furthermore, the book aims to shed light on the implications of this collaboration for the evolving global order and the existing power dynamics.

Through comprehensive research, analysis, and in-depth case studies, we hope to offer policymakers, scholars, and readers a holistic understanding of the evolving global order and the role of the BRICS+ consortium and the Gulf Cooperation Council within it. By delving into the economic, geopolitical, and strategic aspects, we seek to provide a comprehensive perspective on the implications and future scenarios for these collaborating entities and the global stage as a whole.

As we embark on this exploration, it is crucial to recognise the significance of non-Western powers in shaping the future of global affairs. The rise of the BRICS+ consortium and the continued prominence of the Gulf Cooperation Council exemplify the diversification and redistribution of power in the global arena. By examining their collaboration and its implications, we can gain valuable insights into the changing dynamics of international