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    Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options
    Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options
    Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options
    Ebook543 pages5 hours

    Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options

    By James B. Bittman

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    About this ebook

    Today's Premier Guidebook for Understanding Agricultural Options and Making Them a Key Part of Your Trading and Risk Management Strategy

    Agricultural futures and options represent a vital niche in today's options trading world. Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options takes an in-depth look at these valuable trading tools, and presents clear, proven strategies and techniques for both hedgers and traders to achieve their goals while minimizing risk.

    Relying on nuts-and-bolts techniques and examples as opposed to the mathematical models and theory favored by other options-trading manuals this practical, hands-on book discusses many topics, including:

    • How hedgers and traders can use options effectively with realistic expectations
    • Methods to understand price behavior including the "Greeks" (delta, gamma, vega, and theta)
    • The importance of volatility and little-known ways to make it work to your advantage

    For producers and processors, agricultural futures and options are necessary components for controlling costs and hedging risks. For traders, they are proven vehicles for earning exceptional risk-adjusted profits. Whichever side of the aisle you are on, Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options will provide you with the answers you need to effectively use these versatile tools and make them an integral part of your business.

    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherWiley
    Release dateOct 10, 2012
    ISBN9781118538760
    Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options

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      Book preview

      Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options - James B. Bittman

      Introduction

      IS THIS BOOK FOR YOU?

      This book is written for hedgers and traders who want to use commodity futures and options. Hedgers will learn how options work and how to think in a new way about price-management planning. Setting goals, two-step thinking, and understanding trade-offs are what the successful use of futures and options in hedging requires. Traders will learn about option price behavior and the differences in market forecasting that trading options requires relative to trading futures. Traders will also learn how to analyze more than one strategy for a given situation.

      RISK EXISTS

      Farmers who plant crops in the spring do not know what the price will be when it is time to sell in the fall. Processors who need a steady flow of supplies throughout the year constantly face an unknown future of fluctuating prices. Markets in commodity futures and options on futures arose out of a need to deal with, or manage, these risks.

      MARKET PARTICIPANTS

      Markets are created by the interaction of three different types of participants: hedgers, traders (or speculators), and arbitrageurs. Hedgers have a real business interest in the underlying commodity. They either produce the commodity, such as farmers who plant and grow grain, or use it, such as bakers who use grain to make bread. Some hedgers are both producers and users. Soybean crushers, for example, are users of soybeans and producers of soybean meal and soybean oil. Some hedgers do not fall neatly into either the producer category or the user category. Grain elevators, for example, provide a middleman function by purchasing grain from farmers and storing it until it is sold to a user. Without futures and options, hedgers would be limited in their ability to manage the risks of price fluctuations.

      Three different types of market participants

      Traders, or speculators, have no business interest in the underlying commodity. They only have opinions about the direction of prices, and they hope to profit from those opinions. Traders are an important part of commodity markets because, as additional participants, they make it easier for others to enter into new positions or close out existing positions. Traders perform an essential function known as adding liquidity. Generally speaking, the more liquidity in a market, the narrower the spread between bid and ask prices. This means that total costs are lower for entering and exiting positions.

      Arbitrageurs are the third type of market participant. They attempt to earn profits from price discrepancies. If corn is trading at $2.50 per bushel on the East Coast and $3.00 on the West Coast, and if it costs 20 cents per bushel to ship corn across the country, there is an arbitrage opportunity. An arbitrageur would buy corn at $2.50, ship it across the country, and sell it at $3.00. The result, in this simplified example, would be a profit of 30 cents per bushel. By attempting to make profits in this manner, arbitrageurs provide the function of market parity, which sometimes is described as keeping prices in line. Arbitrageurs perform the function of leveling the playing field so that commodity buyers and sellers in different parts of the country (and the world) pay or receive approximately equal prices adjusted for time and distance.

      In the commodity futures and options markets, there are several arbitrage-pricing relationships. There is a relationship between cash market prices and the prices of futures contracts. There are also relationships between option prices and the prices of the underlying futures contracts. Arbitrageurs therefore play an important role in agricultural markets, and that role is too frequently misunderstood.

      WHAT YOU WILL LEARN

      The chapters in this book are designed to help hedgers and traders understand, (1) how options work, (2) how they can be used to pursue stated goals, and (3) what the pros and cons of using them are. With this understanding, hedgers and traders should be able to incorporate options into their activities.

      For hedgers, this book will first explain the theory of hedging strategies. It then will discuss the thinking and planning process that using options requires. Perhaps the biggest challenge for hedgers is adapting to a new way of thinking. Using options in risk management planning is different from using futures!

      Commodity buyers can use options to lock in maximum prices and still be free to pay a lower price if prices decline. Commodity sellers can use options to lock in a minimum price and still be free to sell at a higher price if prices rise. Both buyers and sellers can use options to enhance income in sideways-trading markets.

      While these hedging concepts may be enticing, it is important not to get too excited too soon. The successful use of options as hedging tools requires the development of realistic expectations about what can be accomplished with options, what the costs are, and, equally important, what is not possible. Setting and achieving hedging pricing targets also involves many subjective elements; the use of options makes the job no less subjective.

      Realistic expectations are important

      For traders, the discussion of option price behavior is extremely valuable. Understanding how option prices change with changes in the underlying futures price, changes in the time to expiration, and changes in volatility makes it possible to select trading strategies that are consistent with a market forecast. Traders must also learn to analyze more than one trading alternative.

      It is the hedger’s job to research available information and make subjective predictions in selecting hedging strategies. Options add value for hedgers, because they increase hedging alternatives. The alternatives that options make possible are not necessarily better; instead, they offer different trade-offs—different sets of positives and negatives. Given a hedger’s specific circumstances and market opinion, an option alternative may be deemed better by that person, but the option strategy will not be better in an absolute sense.

      What do options give hedgers?

      Each option strategy should be understood in terms of the trade-off it offers. Sometimes, for a specific person making a subjective decision, the option trade-off will be preferable; and the option strategy will be selected. On other occasions, the trade-off of buying or selling the commodity in question in the cash market at the current market price will be preferable, and that strategy will be selected.

      This book does not assert that options are the answer to all hedging and trading situations. Rather, it is the contention of this book that options help some of the time, offer good alternatives to consider, and add an essential diversity to hedging and trading tools. To use options wisely and efficiently, however, hedgers and traders must understand the trade-offs they offer and how and when those trade-offs fit into the subjective decision-making process.

      Options do not solve all problems

      BOOK OUTLINE

      This book is divided into three parts: The Basics of Futures and Options, Hedging Strategies, and Trading Strategies.

      Part 1 thoroughly explains the vocabulary, the mechanics of futures and options, and the important concepts of why futures and options have value. This section is essential for beginners. Chapter 1, The Terminology of Futures and Options, is important because industry terms sometimes are used in a way that differs from everyday usage. Chapter 2, Diagrams of Basic Trading Strategies, is also important for beginners. This chapter illustrates in great detail how profit and loss diagrams are created. These diagrams illuminate potential profit and potential risk. These factors become especially important in later sections, when market opinion and hedging or trading objectives are matched with strategy trade-offs. Chapter 3, Diagrams of Basic Hedging Strategies, takes profit and loss diagrams to the next level. Hedgers have a real interest in the underlying commodity and therefore cannot think in options-only terms. They must include their need to buy or sell the underlying commodity in the diagram of the strategy. Chapter 4, Why Futures and Options Have Value, explains conceptually the components of value for these instruments. Chapter 5, Option Price Behavior, explains how option prices change before the expiration date. To say the least, the behavior of option prices seems counterintuitive to many beginners, and this chapter provides an essential introduction to the trading strategies that are presented later in the bank. Chapters 6 and 7 go beyond the basic discussion of price behavior in Chapter 5 to discuss the important subject of volatility and more advanced option pricing topics. Beginners in options may want to skip these chapters initially and come back to them after reading Part 3, Trading Strategies.

      Part 2, Hedging Strategies, starts with Chapter 8, Strategies for Long Hedgers. Four strategies are presented in a step-by-step process. First, the mechanics of the strategy are explained, and, then theoretical advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Then a realistic example that includes rising price and falling price scenarios is presented. Then, the forecast that justifies selecting the strategy is explained. Finally, the psychology behind using the strategy is discussed. Chapter 9 uses the same five-step process to present four strategies for short hedgers. Chapter 10, Advanced Hedging Strategies, explains six multiple-part strategies and the thinking process that is required to use them.

      Part 3, Trading Strategies, shifts the focus and examines short-term strategies in which an understanding of option price behavior is of the utmost importance. Chapter 11 introduces the computer program, OP-EVALF™, which comes with this book. Trading options requires realistic expectations about how option prices change, and this easy-to-use tool helps develop those expectations and analyze trading alternatives. The remaining chapters in Part 3 work through, in step-by-step detail, some short-term trading situations, examining the important decisions that must be made. They also illustrate how OP-EVALF™ can be used to assist in the process. The software, of course, does not make trading decisions, and it does not in any way guarantee success. The purpose of the program is to get consistent information that can help improve the decision-making process. Chapter 12, Buying Options, focuses on long option strategies. Managing trading capital and the use of OP-EVALF™ to develop realistic expectations about various alternatives are important topics in this chapter. Chapter 13, Selling Options, explains the differences in market forecasting, trade planning, capital management, and risk monitoring for strategies involving short options. Chapters 14 through 16 discuss vertical spreads, straddles and strangles, and ratio spreads, respectively. In these chapters a strategy is defined first, and then its mechanics at expiration are reviewed. The delta, gamma, vega, and theta of the strategy are discussed next so that the strategy’s short-term price behavior can be anticipated. Chapter 17 summarizes the important topics developed throughout this book. If you have any questions or would like to discuss topics of particular interest, feel free to contact the author at [email protected], or write to him care of OP-EVAL, Suite 200, 2501 North Lincoln Avenue, Chicago, IL 60614.

      To download OP-EVALF™, go to www.traderslibrary.com/tlecorner

      Part 1

      The Basics of Futures and Options

      Chapter One

      The Terminology of Futures and Options

      This chapter defines the terminology that hedgers and traders need to know. As experienced traders will see, however, not every term associated with futures and options is covered. Frankly speaking, one of the reasons why futures and options are frequently considered more complicated than they actually are is that technical words are used incorrectly or with conflicting meanings. There are, in fact, many technical terms that most hedgers and traders do not need to know. The following list of terms will be used throughout this book as defined in this chapter:

      If you are familiar with these terms, you may skip ahead to Chapter 2. If you wish to read through the following definitions, keep in mind that they are written on a basic level. The nuances will be explained in later chapters.

      This chapter will first discuss futures contracts, then call options, and then put options. At the end of the chapter some questions (with the answers following) will help reinforce your understanding.

      FUTURES CONTRACTS

      The Delivery Date

      A futures contract is an agreement between two parties, a buyer and a seller, to exchange a standardized good, the commodity, for an agreed-upon price at a specific date in the future, the delivery date. The agreement is made through representatives of the parties, commodities brokers, on the floor of an organized futures exchange. The exchange guarantees the performance of both parties. The specifications and delivery procedures of the standardized good are detailed in the futures contract. Unless a futures contract is closed out before the delivery date, both the buyer and the seller are obligated to fulfill their sides of the transaction.

      Buyers of futures are obligated to buy

      It is the standardized nature of a futures contract and the exchange guarantee that distinguish a futures contract from a forward contract, which is a unique negotiated agreement between two parties. An example of a forward contract occurs when Party A agrees to buy 12,600 bushels of soybeans from Party B on October 9. The advantage of a negotiated forward contract is that the buyer gets exactly what is needed when it is needed. The seller of a forward contract gets a desired price and a desired delivery schedule. One disadvantage of a forward contract is that both parties assume performance risk. In this example, Party A assumes the risk that Party B will deliver soybeans of the specified grade on the specified date, and Party B assumes the risk that Party A will accept delivery and pay. Another disadvantage of forward contracts is that neither party can get out of the contract, even at a loss, without the permission of the other party. If Party A wants to cancel the contract but Party B refuses, Party A must find a third party, acceptable to Party B, to buy exactly 12,600 bushels of the specific grade of soybeans on October 9. This is known as an illiquid contract.

      Sellers of futures are obligated to sell

      Futures contracts, however, have the advantage of being very liquid. Unless extraordinary market conditions exist in which a futures contract has reached its upper or lower price limit for a particular trading session, futures contracts can be traded freely. Also, futures contracts involve neither performance risk nor the expenses of negotiation. Futures contracts are generally far less costly to administer than are forward contracts.

      Standardization is the major disadvantage of futures contracts. If a contract covers 5,000 bushels, for example, it is impossible to get 12,600 bushels delivered through the exchange’ delivery mechanism. A buyer must purchase either two or three contracts in that case. Nevertheless, the growth of futures markets indicates that many market participants find that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

      Margin Accounts and Margin Deposits

      After entering into a futures contract, both the buyer and the seller must deposit funds in an account with the broker to demonstrate that they are financially capable of fulfilling the terms of the contract. The deposit is known as a margin deposit and the account is known as the margin account. The actual risk borne by the parties is usually substantially larger than the margin deposit. Users of futures and options need to be aware of margin account procedures because different strategies have different margin requirements.

      Initial Margin, Maintenance Margin, and Margin Call

      Initial margin is the minimum account equity required to establish a position. Initial margin requirements for futures and futures options frequently are expressed in absolute dollar terms. The initial margin for a soybean futures position, long or short, for example, might be $900. If a position loses money, the account equity, i.e., the margin, will decrease. Minimum margin is the level, expressed as an absolute dollar amount, at or above which the account equity must be maintained. If account equity falls below the minimum margin level, the brokerage firm will notify the trader in a margin call that the account equity must be raised to the maintenance level. Maintenance margin is the level of account equity to which an account balance must be raised when a margin call is received. Maintenance margin is typically less than initial margin. Upon receiving a margin call, a trader may either deposit additional funds or securities or close the position.

      Mark to the Market

      A process that ensures that buyers and sellers of futures contracts are in compliance with the minimum margin requirements established by the exchange is known as marking to the market. By this process, the margin account balances of both the buyer and the seller are adjusted daily to reflect changes in the price of the futures contract.

      Assume, for example, that on day 1 John buys one wheat futures contract from Ramona. Assume also that this contract covers 5,000 bushels of wheat, the price is $3.00 per bushel, and the margin requirement is $1,000. This means that both John and Ramona must deposit $1,000 in accounts with their brokers.

      Now consider the risks that John and Ramona are assuming. John has agreed to buy 5,000 bushels at $3.00 each for a total commitment of $15,000. In theory, if the price of wheat were to drop to zero, John would be obligated to pay $14,000 in addition to the $1,000 already in his account, and his total loss would be $15,000.

      Ramona’s risk is different. If Ramona has 5,000 bushels of wheat ready to deliver, she has no risk other than opportunity risk, the risk that the price of wheat could rise and a higher price could have been received. In this case, in which Ramona has 5,000 bushels of wheat, she simply waits until the delivery date and then delivers her wheat in accordance with exchange-specified procedures. Upon delivery she receives $15,000.

      If Ramona does not have any wheat, however, she is assuming an unlimited risk, because the price of wheat could rise indefinitely.

      Now consider how a change in the price of the futures contract and marking to the market affect John’s and Ramona’s account balances. If on day 2 the price of wheat rises 10 cents to $3.10, the value of 5,000 bushels rises to $15,500. Ignoring the fact that John will feel good and Ramona will feel bad, the price rise has increased John’s creditworthiness and decreased Ramona’s. John’s commitment to purchase wheat at $3.00 is now backed by his $1,000 deposit plus the $500 increase in value of the futures contract. Ramona, however, has only $500 of free and clear margin, because $500 of her $1,000 deposit is now an unrealized loss.

      Something now happens in the futures business that does not happen in a normal purchase and sale transaction. Given the 10-cent price rise indicated above, the exchange will instruct Ramona’s broker to transfer $500 cash from her account to John’s broker for deposit to John’s account. Such cash transfers occur every day in the futures business. When prices rise, cash is transferred from holders of short positions to holders of long positions. When prices fall, the opposite happens.

      MARK TO THE MARKET Cash transfers are made daily

      These daily cash transfers are an important element of the creditworthiness of the futures system. First, they assure that every futures position is backed by the exchange-required minimum deposit of cash or cash equivalents. Second, they provide assurance to every trader with an unrealized profit by covering that unrealized profit with cash.

      In the example above in which $500 is transferred out of Ramona’s account, her equity, or margin account balance, is reduced to $500. As long as her balance is above the exchange’s minimum requirement, no action need be taken. If an account balance drops below the minimum, however, then the broker will notify the customer that additional funds must be deposited or the position must be closed. This notification is known as a margin call. If the customer does not deposit the required funds and does not close the position, the broker has the authority to close the position without the customer’s permission.

      Should a trader who receives a margin call deposit more money or close the position? This is a decision that only the trader can make, and there is no right or wrong answer. The important point is that every open futures position is backed by at least the exchange’s minimum margin requirement. If Ramona deposits sufficient additional funds, the exchange minimum is met. If she closes her position by purchasing a contract in the marketplace, another party will make the required deposit. In either case, both the long and short sides of all open futures contracts are backed by at least the minimum margin balance required by the exchange.

      CALL OPTIONS

      A call option is a contract between the call buyer (or owner) and the call writer (or seller). A call option gives its owner the right, but not the obligation, to buy some underlying instrument from the call writer at a specified price until a specified date. The writer, however, is obligated to deliver the underlying if instructed to do so. It is the right, but not the obligation, of the buyer that distinguishes an option contract from a futures contract. A futures contract, remember, obligates both the buyer and the seller. The underlying instrument may be a stock, a bond, a physical commodity, or a futures contract. In this book, it is assumed that one futures contract is the underlying instrument for each option. Options that have one futures contract as the underlying instrument sometimes are described as options on futures or futures options. This distinguishes them from stock options, index options, and other types of options.

      Strike Price and Expiration Date

      The srtike price (or exercise price) is the price specified in the option contract at which the underlying futures contract is traded if the call is exercised. The expiration date is the date specified in the option contract, and it is the date after which the right contained in the option ceases to exist. The expiration date for options on futures is generally the Saturday following the Friday before the last full week before the first notice day for delivery of the underlying futures contract. For example, if July 1, a Wednesday, is the first notice day for July futures, options on those July futures will expire 11 days earlier, on Saturday, June 20. Options expire on a Saturday for technical reasons related to trade clearing and error resolution. The last day options can be traded and exercised is typically a Friday, which is the last business day before the Saturday expiration.

      Premium

      The term premium simply refers to the price, or cost, of an option. An option’s premium is paid by the option buyer and is received by the option seller. At futures exchanges in the United States, option buyers have no margin requirement after they pay for an option. Option sellers, however, do have margin requirements, and those requirements change as prices of the underlying futures contracts change.

      Rights and Obligations

      The buyer of one September 2.80 Wheat Call has the right, but not the obligation, to purchase one September Wheat Futures contract from the call writer at a price of $2.80 (per bushel) at any time up to the expiration date. The call writer, in contrast, has an obligation to deliver one September Wheat Futures contract. The obligation is a contingent obligation until the call owner exercises the right to buy. If the call owner exercises, however, the call writer must deliver the contract.

      Call owners have the right to buy

      Call writers have the obligation to sell

      Long Call and Short Call

      The call buyer is described as having a long call position. Long, in this context, means own. As experienced traders know, it can also mean bullish, as in long the market.

      The call writer is described a having a short call position, and in this context, short means open written position or obligation. It can also mean bearish.

      Exercise (and Exercise Notice) and Assignment (and Notice of Assignment)

      Exercise occurs when the call owner declares the right to buy a futures contract from the call seller and makes the proper notifications. Assignment occurs when a call writer is notified that a call owner has exercised the right to buy and that a futures contract must be sold. The process by which exercise and assignment occur is as follows. When a call owner decides to exercise, the first step is to notify the brokerage firm. The brokerage firm then submits an exercise notice to the clearing corporation of the exchange where the option is traded. It is the clearing corporation that guarantees the performance of option contracts. The clearing corporation then makes a random selection of a brokerage firm with a short call position that matches the long call being exercised. That brokerage firm in turn selects at random a customer with a short call position and notifies that customer, through an assignment notice, that the option has been assigned. At this point, a futures transaction has occurred: The call owner is the buyer of the futures contract, and the call writer is the seller. The price of this transaction is the strike price of the option (plus or minus commissions).

      Option owners exercise

      Option writers are assigned

      A call option ceases to exist after one of two events occurs. First, if the call owner exercises the right to purchase, the call writer must fulfill the terms of the contract. After exercise, the option no longer exists, but a futures contract has been purchased. If an August 8500 Feeder Cattle Call is exercised, for example, the exerciser purchases an August Feeder Cattle Futures contract at 85 cents per pound and must make the appropriate margin deposit. Second, a call ceases to exist if it is not exercised before expiration. In this case, the option is said to expire worthless.

      Position after Exercise and Assignment

      Both the call owner and the call writer will have changed positions and margin requirements after a call is exercised. Figure 1–1 summarizes the changes. For the call owner, an exercised call creates a futures purchase transaction (one contract per option). If there was initially no futures position, exercising a call creates a long futures position at the strike price of the call, and an appropriate margin must be deposited. If, however, a short futures position existed on a one-for-one basis with the long calls, exercising a call purchases futures contracts that offset the short futures position, and the result is no position.

      Figure 1–1 Call Options: Changed Positions after Exercise or Assignment

      For the call writer, assignment of a call means that a futures sale transaction is created. If the call writer had no futures position, assignment of a short call creates a short futures position at the strike price of the call, and appropriate margin must be deposited. If, however, a long futures position existed on a one-for-one basis with the short calls, the assigned call writer sells futures contracts that offset the long futures position. The result is no position.

      Effective Purchase Price and Effective Selling Price

      The price at which the call was bought and sold is significant, because it is an important factor in the ultimate price of the futures transaction. The effective purchase price is the price of purchasing a futures contract that takes into account the price of the option. The effective selling price is the price of selling a futures contract which takes into account the price of the option. The following example illustrates this point.

      FOR CALLS Effective purchase price = strike plus call premium = effective selling price

      If a 2.50 Corn Call that was purchased for .20, or 20 cents, is exercised, the effective purchase price of the corn futures transaction is 2.70. This price is calculated by adding the call price to its strike price on a per-unit basis. For the assigned call writer, the effective selling price of the futures is also 2.70: .20 was received for selling the call, and a short futures position at 2.50 is created when assignment occurs. The general formula — strike price plus call premium — applies equally to the call writer as the effective selling price and to the call buyer as the effective purchase price.

      American-Style Exercise and European-Style Exercise

      An option subject to American-style exercise is one in which the right granted by the option may be exercised at any time before the expiration date. An option subject to European-style exercise, however, may be exercised only on the last trading day before established deadlines. In the United States, all futures options are American-style.

      AMERICAN OPTIONS Early Exercise: YES

      EUROPEAN OPTIONS Early Exercise: NO

      In-the-Money, At-the-Money, and Out-of-the-Money

      The relationship of the futures price to the strike price determines whether an option is in-the-money, at-the-money, or out-of-the-money. An in-the-money call has a strike price below the current futures price. If a futures is trading at 6.00, for example, the 5.75 Call is in-the-money. To be precise, it is 25 cents in-the-money. This call, however, is not necessarily trading for 25 cents. In fact, it is very likely to be trading for more than 25

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