You have referred to our current environment as ‘exponential’. How do you define that term?
A linear process is one where something progresses straight from one stage to another. For example, your age increases by a predictable ‘one’ with each revolution of the earth around the sun. An exponential process, on the other hand, is like a savings account with compound interest: It increases by a fixed percentage — say, two per cent every year — but next year’s two per cent applies not just to your original savings but to your savings plus last year’s interest. Such compounding starts out slowly, but at a certain point, the value leaps higher at a dizzying pace.
Many natural processes follow an exponential pattern: the number of bacteria in a petri dish, or the spread of a virus through a population, for example. A more recent development is the emergence of exponential technologies. I define an exponential technology as one that can improve at a fixed cost, at a rate of more than 10 per cent per year for several decades. I’m not talking about a smattering of accelerating technologies in a few distinct areas. Exponentiality is now baked into the very logic of technology, across numerous sectors of the economy. And as a result, we are living in the Exponential Age.
Smartphones diffused 12.5 times faster than the original telephone.