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Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

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A provocative and urgent analysis of the U.S.–China rivalry.

It has become conventional wisdom that America and China are running a “superpower marathon” that may last a century. Yet Hal Brands and Michael Beckley pose a counterintuitive question: What if the sharpest phase of that competition is more like a decade-long sprint?

The Sino-American contest is driven by clashing geopolitical interests and a stark ideological dispute over whether authoritarianism or democracy will dominate the 21st century. But both history and China’s current trajectory suggest that this rivalry will reach its moment of maximum danger in the 2020s.

China is at a perilous moment: strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, yet losing confidence that time is on its side. Numerous examples from antiquity to the present show that rising powers become most aggressive when their fortunes fade, their difficulties multiply, and they realize they must achieve their ambitions now or miss the chance to do so forever. China has already started down this path. Witness its aggression toward Taiwan, its record-breaking military buildup, and its efforts to dominate the critical technologies that will shape the world’s future.

Over the long run, the Chinese challenge will most likely prove more manageable than many pessimists currently believe―but during the 2020s, the pace of Sino-American conflict will accelerate, and the prospect of war will be frighteningly real. America, Brands and Beckley argue, will still need a sustainable approach to winning a protracted global competition. But first, it needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone ahead.

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Editorial Reviews

Review

"Cogently argued ... [an] excellent book really worth reading."
James Kynge, Financial Times

"Unflinching and historically grounded, provocative and richly researched, this refreshing, pioneering work delivers a necessary corrective to narrow thinking and relaxed timelines in dealing with China. Beckley and Brands’ ideas need to be embraced if we are to effectively manage differences emerging in the increasingly volatile relationship between our two nations."
General Jim Mattis, U.S. Marines (ret.) and 26th Secretary of Defense

"There is bipartisan consensus in Washington that China is the most important long-term strategic challenge for the U.S. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley powerfully argue that an enormously ambitious China is peaking now and confrontation is coming sooner than we think. This well-written, must-read book will add a sense of urgency to the national debate about strategic competition."
Ambassador (ret.) Eric S. Edelman, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (2005–2009)

"Brilliant and engagingly written, this warning by two outstanding scholars is especially timely in light of recent events. Are Americans ready for what may be coming? They will be better prepared if they read this book."
Robert Kagan, author of The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, 1900-1941

"Russian aggression notwithstanding, China constitutes the most daunting challenge to U.S. national security and the liberal international order. In this brilliant and urgently important book, Hal Brands and Michael Beckley explain why the threat of war with China will likely peak in this decade―when China's global power and ambition for primacy are swelling just as it faces severe demographic, economic, and political strains on the horizon. Every U.S. foreign policy maker and thinker should read this book and heed their call to rapidly mobilize strategy, strength, and alliances to navigate through this danger zone."
Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

"The authors have given us much to think about, and much of it is frightening. An authoritative, worrying analysis about the prospects for open conflict within the next few years."
Kirkus

"A provocative and noteworthy contribution to the debate over what the U.S. should do about China."
Publishers Weekly

About the Author

Michael Beckley is associate professor of political science at Tufts University and a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Hal Brands, coauthor of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ W. W. Norton & Company (August 16, 2022)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 304 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1324021306
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1324021308
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.31 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.3 x 1.1 x 9.3 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 349 ratings

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4.4 out of 5 stars
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Customers say

Customers find the book fascinating and a must-read for thinking people. They appreciate the well-documented content and historical analogies. The book is easy to read and lucid, with deep dives into recent history. However, some customers report formatting errors that make it unreadable.

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15 customers mention "Insight"15 positive0 negative

Customers find the book fascinating and a must-read for thinking people. They appreciate the insightful content, well-documented, and easy read. The book provides an excellent summary of the facts and is valuable for people doing business in or with China or Taiwan. It offers knowledgeable analysis of a difficult situation and provokes thought-provoking questions.

"...potential military conflict, Danger Zone is also a valuable read for people doing business in or with China or Taiwan and for all of us who rely on..." Read more

"Overall an excellent book explaining in great detail how the China problem came to be, why it is important for the world to solve this problem, and..." Read more

"...I found the book fascinating, and now understand the western Pacific theater better." Read more

"...Clearly presented, it reflects ideas and facts I too have gleaned from conservative, liberal and non-partisan sources...." Read more

3 customers mention "History lesson"3 positive0 negative

Customers enjoy the book's history lesson. They find it covers the rise and fall of global powers, with excellent historical analogies to convey views. The book provides a wide-ranging perspective, with two chapters that dive into recent history (largely World Wars I and II and the Cold War).

"...Two chapters do deep dives into recent history (largely World Wars I and II and the Cold War)...." Read more

"Timely explanation of geopolitical competition. A good history lesson on the rise and fall of global powers...." Read more

"Very wide in scope, with excellent historical analogies to bring across his views...." Read more

3 customers mention "Readability"3 positive0 negative

Customers find the book easy to read and well-rewritten. They find it thought-provoking and lucid.

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"...Well rewritten, thought provocking and lucid...." Read more

"...The book is extremely well documented, is an "easy read", and the predictions seem entirely plausible...." Read more

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Top reviews from the United States

  • Reviewed in the United States on August 26, 2022
    Written by two political science professors who are fellows at the American Enterprise Institute, Danger Zone should be mandatory reading for every American, beginning with our politicians. Far from the usual book that warns America is losing the race with China, this book focuses on three points: 1) China has far more fundamental problems than most Americans believe (the worsening demographic statistics are especially vivid); 2) those problems will get worse in coming decades; and 3) this reality may force China to take advantage of current U.S. military weaknesses to seize Taiwan by force (among other things) while it has the best chance of pulling off a decisive victory. The book is a call for action for the U.S. to recognize this "danger zone" before China takes advantage of it.

    Unlike some books written by academics, this book is relatively short (only 216 pages before the wealth of footnotes) and--with two possible exceptions--easy to read. Two chapters do deep dives into recent history (largely World Wars I and II and the Cold War). Both support the authors' arguments but also slow the pace for readers who are not history buffs.

    Consistent with books like this, the authors offer some useful suggestions about what the U.S. and its allies need to do to get through the danger zone. While many of these seem helpful, if we have the necessary urgency and will, others seem unlikely not because they are bad ideas but because they will require more resources, implementation and tenacity than seem possible.

    This is a wakeup call book that adds value on multiple levels. Even if you don't buy the authors' assessment of the pending danger zone, their well-researched explanation of China's demographic, economic and geopolitical weaknesses is worth reading. Although tagged as a book about geopolitics and potential military conflict, Danger Zone is also a valuable read for people doing business in or with China or Taiwan and for all of us who rely on their massive supply lines.

    Whatever your background, read this book. You will never look at China or Taiwan the same again.
    24 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on October 16, 2022
    Overall an excellent book explaining in great detail how the China problem came to be, why it is important for the world to solve this problem, and how the United States could lead the world to contain the coming problems with China over the next decades. I only have two complaints, one is that the text does get overly preachy at times with long winded essays which really don’t enhance the message, just prolong it; and secondly I expected to gain more insight into how North Korea may factor into the coming conflicts. Otherwise I highly recommend this to anyone who cares about the world and what it’s going to be like in 2040.
    6 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on February 8, 2024
    The authors explain in depth the intractable problems faced by the Chinese Communist Party and why this makes the next several years so dangerous. They present specific recommendations (e.g., "prioritize ruthlessly") to manage the risk. I found the book fascinating, and now understand the western Pacific theater better.
    2 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on October 3, 2023
    Although I rarely agree with The American Enterprise Institute, this book by two of its people is spot on. Clearly presented, it reflects ideas and facts I too have gleaned from conservative, liberal and non-partisan sources. I am an American who lives in Asia and has worked for multilateral organizations, so for years I've witnessed the falsehoods and dangers of China and Russia. I know the evidence presented here is real and solutions make sense.
    3 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on August 23, 2023
    The authors’ thesis is both reassuring - China has inherent problems which will preclude it from dominating the world - and disturbing - China’s leaders may feel it necessary to divert domestic attention to foreign affairs by a military adventure (i.e., Taiwan). Time will tell if the authors were on the right analytical path, but they marshall facts in support of their thesis to make a strong argument for their position.
    3 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on October 11, 2022
    Content is excellent but for some reason there are random characters inserted into the text.
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    3.0 out of 5 stars Content is excellent but formatting errors
    Reviewed in the United States on October 11, 2022
    Content is excellent but for some reason there are random characters inserted into the text.
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    6 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on May 15, 2023
    The book deals with China, which appears on a collision course with the US. The authors map a foreign policy course of action to blunt an assault on democratic countries by China. Well rewritten, thought provocking and lucid. They predict a new Cold War coming from China’s need to expand before they crack from internal problems.
    3 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

  • li j.
    5.0 out of 5 stars Make you understand the American policy today
    Reviewed in Canada on October 8, 2023
    The author introduced a way to the
    victory, but not that easy. It needs more cooperation between Europe, Japan and the United States.
  • Leo
    5.0 out of 5 stars Timely and informative
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 18, 2022
    The analysis proposed is as timely as it get in these very weeks and months. While slightly too focused on the US/China perspective, it gives a clear and rationale presentation of what the “Danger Zone” is and how to go through this phase and win the competition.
    Democracy vs Autocracy is the main stream of this phase of the Cold War
  • Gerico76
    1.0 out of 5 stars Formatting Errors
    Reviewed in Italy on September 10, 2022
    I was excited about this book...unfortunately I was forced to give it back.
    There are many formatting errors in the pages and it was so difficult to go on with reading.

    No damage...Amazon service gave money back...but it was a pity...I wanted to read it.
  • Paul Grose
    2.0 out of 5 stars Nostalgia for cold-war containment and confrontation
    Reviewed in Canada on June 11, 2023
    Too bellicose and lacking in nuance for my taste.