Probabilistic Markov Modeling

Dynamic aspects of Information Retrieval (IR), including changes found in data, users and systems, are increasingly being utilized in search engines and information filtering systems. Existing IR techniques are limited in their ability to optimize over changes, learn with minimal computational footprint and be responsive and adaptive. The objective of this tutorial is to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date introduction to Dynamic Information Retrieval Modeling, the statistical modeling of IR systems that can adapt to change. It will cover techniques ranging from classic relevance feedback to the latest applications of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) and a handful of useful algorithms and tools for solving IR problems incorporating dynamics.

This paper proposes an analysis of a project model with feedbacks as palliative to qualitative models widely utilized in software engineering. It demonstrates that software engineering projects can reliably be modeled and analyzed quantitatively. Several analytical methods are introduced aiming to resolve problems of quantification. A sequence of steps to introduce rigor in software engineering models is explained showing how software warehouses can adopt proposed methods. Proposed approach when implemented can enhance the quality of produced software.

Parkinson's Disease is a neurodegenerative disorder caused by a loss of nerves in the brain, specifically in the Substantia Nigra. This part of the brain is responsible for creating dopamine, a chemical transmitter, and hormone used by neurons in a paracrine connection. This hormone is correlated with feelings of pleasure, however, it has further purposes such as learning, memory, and most physically relevant to Parkinson's Disease-motor control. Today, there is no effective way of monitoring Parkinson's Disease in a clinical setting. So far, the only way to detect the signs of Parkinson's Disease is to study the patient's ancestry in relation to Parkinson's and to perform qualitative tests monitored by a physician. Through this project, "MobiTest", I aim to digitize these tests to monitor the progression of Parkinson's Disease. The main goal of this project is to ensure that constant monitoring no longer requires the assistance of a physician, and to bring monitoring to those suffering from Parkinson's disease all over the world-onto their smartphones. MobiTest utilizes Advanced Statistics algorithms and Support Vector Classifiers to quantify drawings of spirals into a score on a UPDRS (Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale) from 1 to 5, where 1 is least severe and 5 is most severe. MobiTest also provides charts in which users can identify trends in their scores that can be sent to physicians. Apart from progression monitoring, MobiTest also includes a specialized keyboard that serves to help the caretakers of speech-impaired Parkinson's Disease patients to look up commonly used words. This keyboard uses a Bayesian theorem for a progressive NLP prediction algorithm to make suggestions for a fast and efficient lookup time.

For a long time, one of my dreams was to describe the nature of uncertainty axiomatically, and it looks like I've finally done it in my co∼eventum mechanics! Now it remains for me to explain to everyone the co∼eventum mechanics in the most approachable way. This is what I'm trying to do in this work. The co∼eventum mechanics is another name for the co∼event theory, i.e., for the theory of experience and chance which I axiomatized in 2016 [1, 2]. In my opinion, this name best reflects the co∼event-based idea of the new dual theory of uncertainty, which combines the probability theory as a theory of chance, with its dual half, the believability theory as a theory of experience. In addition, I like this new name indicates a direct connection between the co∼event theory and quantum mechanics, which is intended for the physical explanation and description of the conict between quantum observers and quantum observations [4]. Since my theory of uncertainty satises the Kolmogorov axioms of probability theory, to explain this co∼eventum mechanics I will use a way analogous to the already tested one, which explains the theory of probability as a theory of chance describing the results of a random experiment. The simplest example of a random experiment in probability theory is the " tossing a coin ". Therefore, I decided to use this the simplest random experiment itself, as well as the two its analogies: the " "flipping a coin " and the " spinning a coin " to explain the co∼eventum mechanics, which describes the results of a combined experienced random experiment. I would like to resort to the usual for the probability theory " coin-based " analogy to explain (and first of all for myself) the logic of the co∼eventum mechanics as a logic of experience and chance. Of course, this analogy one may seem strange if not crazy. But I did not come up with a better way of tying the explanations of the logic of the co∼eventum mechanics to the coin-based explanations that are commonly used in probability theory to explain at least for myself the logic of the chance through a simple visual " coin-based " model that clarifies what occurs as a result of a combined experienced random experiment in which the experience of observer faces the chance of observation. I hope this analogy can be useful not only for me in understanding the co∼eventum mechanics.

Mafia (also called Werewolf) is a party game. The participants are divided into two competing groups: citizens and a mafia. The objective is to eliminate the opponent group. The game consists of two consecutive phases (day and night) and a certain set of actions (e.g. lynching during day). The mafia members have additional powers (knowing each other, killing during night) whereas the citizens are more numerous.

We propose a simple mathematical model of the game, which is essentially a pure death process with discrete time. We find the closed-form solutions for the mafia winning-chance w(n,m) as well as for the evolution of the game. Moreover, we investigate the discrete properties of results, as well as their continuous-time approximations.

It turns out that a relatively small number of the mafia members, i.e. proportional to the square root of the total number of players, gives equal winning-chance for both groups. Furthermore, the game strongly depends on the parity of the total number of players.

You yourself, or what is the same, your experience is such ``coin'' that, while you aren't questioned, it rotates all the time in ``free flight''. And only when you answer the question the ``coin'' falls on one of the sides: ``Yes'' or ``No'' with the believability that your experience tells you.

Mathematics plays a critical role in many modeling and simulation applications, and whenever detailed representations of combat phenomenon are required (e.g., attrition, detection, etc.). The required mathematics can seem daunting, but a wealth of problems relevant to the M&S community can be addressed with efficient numerical algorithms and heuristics. We shall present a small sampling of these methods and relevant examples of their usage. Examples include combat attrition, target engagement, detection, and missile defense. Most of these can be implemented with a spreadsheet for demonstration.

Model Pengambilan Keputusan
Klasifikasi Model Pengambilan Keputusan
Pengambilan Keputusan Dalam Kondisi Risiko
Pengambilan Keputusan Dalam Kondisi Tak Pasti
Pengambilan Keputusan Dalam Kondisi Konflik
Pengambilan Keputusan Dalam Kondisi Pasti
Analisis Rantai Markov
Simulasi

This work presents the current state-of-the-art in techniques for tracking a number of objects moving in a coordinated and interacting fashion. Groups are structured objects  characterized with particular motion patterns. The group can be comprised of a small number of interacting objects (e.g. pedestrians, sport players, convoy of cars) or of hundreds or thousands of components such as crowds of people. The
group object tracking is closely linked with extended object tracking but at the same time has particular features which differentiate it from extended objects. Extended objects, such as in maritime surveillance, are characterized by their kinematic states and their size or volume. Both group and extended objects give rise to a varying number of measurements and require trajectory maintenance. An emphasis is given here to sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods and their variants. Methods for small groups and for
large groups are presented, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, the random matrices approach and Random Finite Set Statistics methods. Efficient real-time implementations are discussed which are able to deal with the high dimensionality and provide high accuracy. Future trends and avenues are traced.

An accelerating trend of global urbanization accompanying population growth makes frequently updated land use and land cover (LULC) maps critical. LULC maps have been widely created through the classification of remotely sensed imagery. Maps of urban areas have been both dichotomous (urban or non-urban) and entailing of discrete urban types. This study incorporated multispectral built-up indices, designed to enhance satellite imagery, for introducing new urban classification schemes. The indices examined are the new built-up index (NBI), the built-up area extraction index (BAEI), and the normalized difference concrete condition index (NDCCI). Landsat Level-2 data covering the city of Miami, FL, USA was leveraged with geographic data from the Florida Geospatial Data Library and Florida Department of Environmental Protection to develop and validate new methods of supervised and unsupervised classification of urban area. NBI was used to extract discrete urban features through object-oriented image analysis. BAEI was found to possess properties for visualizing and tracking urban development as a low-high gradient. NDCCI was composited with NBI and BAEI as the basis for a robust urban intensity classification scheme superior to that of the United States Geological Survey National Land Cover Database 2016. BAEI, implemented as a shadow index, was incorporated in a novel infill geosimulation of high-rise construction. The findings suggest that the proposed classification schemes are advantageous to the process of creating more detailed cartography in response to the increasing global demand.

A classic problem in probability theory is as follows. Two players, A and B, bet on the sum of the rolls of two six-sided dice. Player A bets that a total of 12 will be rolled first. Player B bets that two consecutive 7's will be rolled first. They continue to roll these two dice until one of these two events happens. The question is, which of these two is more likely to win this bet? The resolution of this problem is non-obvious, but well-known [3]. We present here a generalized method for solving this problem in the case of two players betting on the sum of the rolls of n k-sided dice, where the first player bets that a total of a will be rolled first and the second player bets that j consecutive b's will be rolled first. We prove that this formula computes the correct probability of winning for both players by deriving the formula directly, and then we provide conditions for these parameters such that A has a greater probability of winning than B. We also use a simple Markov chain model to deduce the expected number of rolls before the game ends regardless of who wins. We conclude by speculating on the possibility of further generalizations of this formula to an arbitrary number of players.

Numerous offices are currently utilizing AI calculations to settle on high-stake choices. Deciding the correct choice unequivocally depends on the accuracy of the info information. This reality gives enticing motivations to lawbreakers to attempt to mislead AI calculations by controlling the information that is encouraged to the calculations. Then, conventional AI calculations are not intended to be protected when going up against startling data sources.  In this exposition, we address the issue of antagonistic AI; i.e., we will likely form safe AI calculations that are hearty within the sight of loud or adversarial controlled information. Ill-disposed AI will be additionally testing when the ideal yield has a mind boggling structure. In this paper, a sign cannot concentrate is on antagonistic AI for anticipating organized yields. To start with, we build up another calculation that dependably performs aggregate classification, which is an organized expectation issue. Our learning strategy is efficient and is defined as a raised quadratic program. This procedure verifies the expectation calculation in both the nearness and the nonappearance of an enemy. Next, we explore the issue of parameter learning for hearty, organized forecast models. This strategy builds regularization capacities dependent on the impediments of the foe.

In this exposition, we demonstrate that strength to antagonistic control of information is proportionate to some regularization for huge edge organized expectation, and the other way around. A customary enemy consistently either does not have enough computational capacity to structure a definitive ideal assault, or it doesn't have sufficient data about the student's model to do as such. In this manner, it frequently endeavors to apply numerous irregular changes to the contribution to an expectation of making a leap forward. This reality suggests that on the off chance that we limit the normal misfortune work under antagonistic clamor, we will acquire power against unremarkable enemies. Dropout preparing takes after such a commotion infusion situation. We infer a regularization technique for huge edge parameter learning dependent on the dropout system. We stretch out dropout regularization to non-straight parts in a few unique ways. Experimental assessments demonstrate that our procedures reliably beat the baselines on various datasets. This exploration work incorporates recently distributed and unpublished coauthored material.

With health records becoming  computerized, patients are becoming increasingly concerned about the privacy and security of their health information. Health-information privacy and the loss of such information are covered in Nigeria by federal laws (NATIONAL HEALTH BILL 2008) and so many myriad state regulations. Breaches of privacy require notification to the affected individuals, to government agencies, and the media. The cost to the healthcare organization of the loss of information during security breaches is one of the highest of industry. The notifications and adverse news reports also lead to the loss of trust of patients. Much work has been done by healthcare organizations to keep patient data in electronic health records (EHRs) secure and private. Among common security mechanisms are secure networks with firewalls, encrypted devices and messages, strong user passwords, auditing of access logs of clinical systems, and device timeouts. Despite these security measures, there remains a problem of how to allow the ‘right’ users to access the ‘right’ patient records, while preventing inappropriate accesses by authorized users of the system. Organizational polices allow access to records strictly for treatment, payment, and healthcare operations (TPO) reasons. Authorized users are typically granted limited access to those functions in the EHR needed to perform their jobs. This is in contrast to restricting access to records by patients. Such restrictions are more difficult to regulate and implement, since it is difficult to predict accurately the records for which a provider will need access. Thus, one form of privacy breach occurs when staff members of a healthcare organization access records without TPO reasons. Among the reasons for inappropriate access is snooping of records of celebrities, neighbors, coworkers, and family members. At other times, inappropriate access has been associated with criminal activity. In order to counter such breaches, some institutions, such as the one providing data for this study, have implemented additional safeguards, including:
1. Annual privacy training and annual confidentiality agreements for all employees;
2. Access rules, either prohibiting access or requiring users to enter a reason for access, when the patient being accessed is not registered at the same site as the user;
3. An annual assessment process where individual managers review privileges for their own staff members and can either approve continued access or remove access that is no longer required;
4. Employee self-audit, a tool that allows individuals to see who has looked at their record. Investigations of breach complaints are done by privacy officers in the Health Information Systems (HIS) or Medical Records departments. Users found to have violated the policy are subject to disciplinary action, which may include suspension, penalty payment or summary dismissal.

Meditaremos las máquinas primitivas, el software, el algoritmo y el problema algorítmico. Posteriormente una introducción al maquinas de estado y el lenguaje formal, con breves ejemplos. Exploraremos los tipos de maquinas de estado en vídeo juegos y del vídeo juego autómata . Repasaremos algunos temas de teoría de juegos proceso estocástico, triunfo-fracaso, y algunas consideraciones de las mecánicas o gameplay. Finalizando con unas cortas palabras finales.

Modeling the manpower management mainly concerns the prediction of future behavior of employees. The paper presents a predictive model of numbers of employees in a hierarchical dependent-time system of human resources, incorporating subsystems that each contains grades of the same family. The proposed model is motivated by the reality of staff development which confirms that the path evolution of each employee is usually in his family of grades. That is the reason of dividing the system into subgroups and the choice of the superdiagonal transition matrix.

Compared to the wave's intelligence we are equal to a goldfish. This I say not in jest but because it has taken us millions of years to finally arrive at this day where we find the simple truth it isn't even hidden, it never really was, just like children we were kept out of the pantry with good reason. In this paper, you will find out what the universe is exactly how it functions at every level and you will be able to communicate directly with the main system passing information into the creation process via a real code and very real system provided by the universe. Once I understood how the system worked I was able to understand a good part of the code. I don't know what the consequences will be of us moving out of our very limited reality. I think it is time we do something because the solution to every problem we face today and tomorrow is over there on the core systems processing side. I am the only one so far who has glimpsed the difference in our side and the main system side and well let's just say I now feel trapped and confined into a tiny domain with by comparison has extremely limited options. After glimpsing the other side it became clear that we are confined to a tiny part of reality and left in ignorance until we mature. The inability to capture or calculate the wave collapse, made us think that nothing important was happening in the wave collapse. It is unfathomable to think that so much information and energy could be made in the 1 −42 seconds it takes for the wave to collapse. It would be impossible unless there was a fundamental core process that was handling the wave collapse setting up the platform and delivering information during the collapse to the environment. The wave collapse is how the system creates events and information. The group wave intelligence of the universe acts as a central processing core that runs all the background processes that are needed for the software or user environment to work. Without these processes running in the background our reality would not function. Through these processes Infinite amounts of data are created in the fraction of a second it takes for the wave to collapse. It is not a collapse but a perfectly controlled system. A new breakthrough has allowed us into this hidden system.

The book about the eventology ~ a science about events and its applications to problems of management of sets of events ~ a new direction in philosophy, mathematics and event management (see English version of the book: https://www.academia.edu/38605343/).
This book outlines ideas that inspired me while I was trying to build a new event science, eventology. Not each of these ideas was developed, but all of them inspired me in the construction of eventology, and then in the discovery of a revolutionary theory of experience and chance, co~eventum mechanics. (see, for example, https://www.academia.edu/34357251,
https://www.academia.edu/34373279,
https://www.academia.edu/34390291,
https://www.academia.edu/38368776,
https://www.academia.edu/38154263 and so on).

SRAM-based FPGAs are increasingly attractive in the aerospace industry for their field programmability and low cost. Unfortunately, they suffer from cosmic radiation induced Single Event Effects (SEEs). In safety-critical applications, the dependability of the design is a prime concern since failures may have catastrophic consequences. Hence, an early analysis of dependability of such safety-critical applications will enable designers to develop systems that meet high dependability requirements, such as the DO-254 standard. In this thesis, we propose a high-level dependability and performability analysis methodology based on probabilistic model checking. Compared to the pen-and-pencil and discrete-event simulation approach, our methodology is more accurate due to the use of an automated formal verification technique. Moreover, compared to fault injection or beam testing, analysis at early design stages can guide designers to build more reliable designs reducing the overall cost and effort. The proposed methodology can perform three different types of analysis: evaluation of available design options, optimization of scrub intervals while satisfying its design assurance level requirements, and optimal partitioning of Triple-Modular Redundant (TMR) Systems. Such analysis can also guide designers to adopt proper mitigation technique(s), such as rescheduling, TMR, TMR with less frequent scrubs, or even can help to decide the number of TMR partitions for a given scrub intervals.

Starting from a high-level description of a system, based on the preferred analysis, a Markov model or Markov (reward) model is constructed from the extracted Control Data Flow Graph (CDFG) and the failure/mitigation parameters for the targeted FPGA. Such modeling and exhaustive analysis elaborated using a probabilistic model checking technique can capture all the failures and repairs possible (according to some general model) in the system within the radiation environment. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach, we present our quantitative analysis obtained from DSP benchmark circuits.

An extension of the Markov chain model (MC) for micellization is proposed, which allows the distribution of the surfactants between the monomer solution and the micelles in a mixed surfactant system to be predicted. The dependence of the critical micelle concentration (cmc) on the composition of the solution is investigated. The equilibrium thermodynamic relation between cmc and micelle composition is discussed. The case of ternary mixtures is analyzed, and theoretical triangular diagram is constructed according to MC. Available experimental data for binary and ternary mixtures agree well with the new MC theory. The dependence of MC parameters on the structure of the surfactants is discussed. Comparison of MC with the simple mixture ("regular solution") model is presented. The parameters of the MC theory are related to the interaction parameter β SM of the simple mixture model. Keywords Mixed surfactant system . Interaction parameter . Synergism and antagonism . Regular solution . Markov chain model . Ternary mixture Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

El secuestro constituye una violación a los derechos humanos, a la integridad y
tranquilidad de los afectados y sus familias. Igualmente, es una violación a los artículos 1, 3, 5
9, hallados en la Declaración Universal de los Derechos Humanos adoptada y proclamada por la
Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas en su resolución 217ª (III) del 10 de diciembre de
1948 que rige actualmente (APARICIO, 2003).
En el presente informe se hace una revisión al panorama del secuestro en Colombia, apoyado en
bases de datos gubernamentales y de diferentes ONG, se busca hacer un planteamiento respecto
a las probabilidades que tiene un individuo una vez fue secuestrado de recobrar su libertad, ser
secuestrado de nuevo e inclusive de morir, para esto se hizo un análisis de las cifras obtenidas
revisando los diferentes casos y sus particularidades, obteniendo un consolidado de los posibles
medios que se han registrado para ser liberado o dado de baja, además permite visualizar desde
una perspectiva estadística y menos personal el secuestro en Colombia dando un panorama de
esperanza o resignación frente a una situación de estas dependiendo el caso.

We present a multiscale integrationist interpretation on the boundaries of cognitive systems, using the Markov blanket formalism of the variational free energy principle (FEP). This interpretation is intended as a corrective for the philosophical debate over internalist and externalist interpretations of cognitive boundaries; we stake out a compromise position. We first survey key principles of new radical (extended, enactive, embodied) views of cognition. We then describe an internalist interpretation premised on the Markov blanket formalism. Having reviewed these accounts, we develop our positive multiscale account. We argue that the statistical seclusion of internal from external states of the system – entailed by the existence of a Markov boundary – can coexist happily with the multiscale integration of the system through its dynamics. Our approach does not privilege any given boundary (whether it be that of the brain, body, or world), nor does it argue that all boundaries are e...

Energy management in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) is of paramount importance for the remotely deployed energy stringent sensor nodes. These nodes are typically powered by attached batteries. Several battery-driven energy conservation schemes are proposed to ensure energy ecient network operation. The constraints associated to the limited battery capacity shifted the research trend towards finding alternate sources by harvesting ambient energy. This survey presents a high level taxonomy of energy management in WSNs. We analyze di↵erent battery-driven energy consumption based schemes and energy harvesting based energy provision schemes. We also highlight the recent breakthrough of wireless energy transference to a sensor node as an alternative to typical batteries. We recommend to take into account recent energy provisioning advancements in parallel with the traditional energy conservation approaches for a sensor network while designing energy ecient schemes.

This paper proposes an analysis of a project model with feedbacks as palliative to qualitative models widely utilized in software engineering. It demonstrates that software engineering projects can reliably be modeled and analyzed quantitatively. Several analytical methods are introduced aiming to resolve problems of quantification. A sequence of steps to introduce rigor in software engineering models is explained showing how software warehouses can adopt proposed methods. Proposed approach when implemented can enhance the quality of produced software.

The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co∼event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of co∼events. To study the co∼events, it is not enough to study the experience and to study the chance. For this, it is necessary to study the experience and chance as a single entire, a co∼event. In other words, it is necessary to study their interaction within a co∼event. The new co∼event axiomatics and the theory of co∼events following from it were created precisely for these purposes. In this work, I am going to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new theory of co∼events in a studying the logic of uncertainty. I will do this by the example of a co∼event splitting of the logic of the Bayesian scheme, which has a long history of fierce debates between Bayesionists and frequentists. I hope the logic of the theory of experience and chance will make its modest contribution to the application of these old dual debaters.

Keywords: Eventology, event, probability, probability theory, Kolmogorov’s axiomatics, experience, chance, cause, consequence, co∼event, set of co∼events, bra-event, set of bra-events, ket-event, set of ket-events, believability, certainty, believability theory, certainty theory, theory of co∼events, theory of experience and chance, co∼event dualism, co∼event axiomatics, logic of uncertainty, logic of experience and chance, logic of cause and consequence, logic of the past and the future, Bayesian scheme.

Droughts are complex events which may impair social, economic, agricultural, and other activities of a society. The present hydroclimatological study comprises three stages. First, a Markov chain model based on annual flows at a gauging station located on the Göksu River ﰀTurkeyﰁ is utilized. Second, a critical drought analysis is conducted. Third, the influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation ﰀNAOﰁ on the probability distribution functions ﰀPDFsﰁ of critical droughts have been documented. Drought duration is used as a key parameter in the Markov chain model. As the model degree should be defined prior to applying a Markov chain model to a series of observations, a model degree of first order has been selected according to the results of the Akaike information criteria and Bayesian information criteria. The exact PDFs of the critical drought duration in a finite sample that follows the first-order Markov chain have been determined by the enumeration technique. The critical drought duration is the possible maximum duration likely to occur over the economic life of any water resources system. The expectations of the critical drought duration are provided for different transitional probabilities. The influences of NAO on the PDFs of critical droughts have been examined for two opposite cases; namely, the period of negative NAO index values ﰀ1936–1971ﰁ and the period of positive NAO index values ﰀ1972–2000ﰁ. The results of this analysis clearly indicate that NAO series have quantifiable influences on the transition probabilities and expectation of the critical drought duration. As a result, the probability distribution functions obtained for various critical drought durations in the observations of the Göksu River may be implemented as a robust tool to determine a design value with the concept of risk.

Sub-DAS Bila diindikasikan akan mengalami konversi lahan hutan menjadi ladang berpindah seiring perkembangan kebutuhan lahan saat ini. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk melihat pola perubahan penggunaan lahan dari tahun 2006 sampai dengan 2016 serta prediksinya tahun 2036 melalui penerapan model CA-Markov yang terdapat pada perangkat lunak Idrisi. Pola perubahan penggunaan lahan tahun 1996-2016 di sub-DAS Bila menunjukkan penurunan luasan signifikan pada penggunaan lahan hutan lahan kering primer sebesar 10,94% dan semak belukar sebesar 24,12%. Sementara luasan pertanian lahan kering campur semak meningkat signifikan sebesar 24,33% dan hutan lahan kering sekunder sebesar 10,64%. Begitu pula hasil simulasi prediksi penggunaan lahan tahun 2036, hutan lahan kering primer diprediksi berkurang seluas 10,2%, semak belukar diprediksi berkurang 7,15%, sedangkan hutan lahan kering sekunder diprediksi bertambah 8,63%, permukiman diprediksi bertambah 4,62%, pertanian lahan kering campur semak dipred...

New in the probability theory and eventology theory, the concept of Kopula (eventological copula) is introduced. The theorem on the characterization of the sets of events by Kopula is proved, which serves as the eventological pre-image of the well-known Sclar's theorem on copulas (1959). The Kopulas of doublets and triplets of events are given, as well as of some N-sets of events. For further development of this topic, see my later works: https://www.academia.edu/34390291/, https://www.academia.edu/34373279/, https://www.academia.edu/34357251/

Keywords: eventology, probability, Kolmogorov event, event, set of events, Kopula (eventological copula), Kopula characterizing a set of events.

If you are interested in my work, and you have the opportunity to provide financial support for the publication of my book "Theory of experience and of chance as a theory of being," I ask you to use my PayPal account: paypal.me/EventologyTheory

Predicting long-term outcomes of interventions is necessary for educational and social policy-making processes that might widely influence our society for the long-term. However, performing such predictions based on data from large-scale experiments might be challenging due to the lack of time and resources. In order to address this issue, computer simulations based on Evolutionary Causal Matrices and Markov Chain can be used to predict long-term outcomes with relatively small-scale lab data. In this paper, we introduce Python classes implementing a computer simulation model and presented some pilots implementations demonstrating how the model can be utilized for predicting outcomes of diverse interventions. We also introduce the class-structured simulation module both with real experimental data and with hypothetical data formulated based on social psychological theories. Classes developed and tested in the present study provide researchers and practitioners with a feasible and practical method to simulate intervention outcomes prospectively.

The exponential rate of convergence and the Central Limit Theorem for some Markov operators are established. These operators were efficiently used in some biological models (see Hille, Horbacz & Szarek, Ann. Math. Blaise Pascal, 23 no. 2 (2016)), which generalize the cell cycle model given by Lasota & Mackey, J. Math. Biol. 38 (1999).

The present study briefly proposes how varied empirical research methods, including functional neuroimaging (fMRI), social psychological intervention experiments and evolutionary modeling methods, can contribute to the development of moral educational programs. Particularly, the present study focuses on the application of attainable and relevant moral models, which are usually perceived to be closer to students’ selfhood compared to extraordinary moral saints, in moral education.

Automatically composing music can be seen as a combinatorial optimisation problem. We just have to find the right combination of notes that makes a musical piece sound "good". But what makes music sound good?

In the first part of our research, we use optimisation techniques to generate counterpoint pieces. Counterpoint is a formally defined style that can be evaluated using strict rules, which are defined in music theory. In the second part of the research, we break free from the restriction of a formally defined style and we explore how styles can be "learned" from existing pieces. Combining machine learning with optimisation has the added advantage that we can impose structural constraints and thus enforce a theme and long term coherence to a piece.

Abstrak Sub-DAS Bila diindikasikan akan mengalami konversi lahan hutan menjadi ladang berpindah seiring perkembangan kebutuhan lahan saat ini. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk melihat pola perubahan penggunaan lahan dari tahun 2006 sampai dengan 2016 serta prediksinya tahun 2036 melalui penerapan model CA-Markov yang terdapat pada perangkat lunak Idrisi. Pola perubahan penggunaan lahan tahun 1996-2016 di sub-DAS Bila menunjukkan penurunan luasan signifikan pada penggunaan lahan hutan lahan kering primer sebesar 10,94% dan semak belukar sebesar 24,12%. Sementara luasan pertanian lahan kering campur semak meningkat signifikan sebesar 24,33% dan hutan lahan kering sekunder sebesar 10,64%. Begitu pula hasil simulasi prediksi penggunaan lahan tahun 2036, hutan lahan kering primer diprediksi berkurang seluas 10,2%, semak belukar diprediksi berkurang 7,15%, sedangkan hutan lahan kering sekunder diprediksi bertambah 8,63%, permukiman diprediksi bertambah 4,62%, pertanian lahan kering campur semak diprediksi bertambah 5,64%. Penerapan model CA-Markov untuk memprediksi penggunaan lahan menunjukan nilai Kstandard 0,9 dinyatakan bahwa pemodelan diterima secara ilmiah. Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Bila merupakan DAS hulu yang bermuara di danau Tempe. Setiap tahun, bagian hilir atau danau Tempe mengalami masalah yakni banjir. Penyebab banjir di danau Tempe diakibatkan oleh daerah resapan air yang mengalami konversi lahan yang tidak memperhatikan pola penggunaan lahan yang memiliki fungsi sebagai daerah penyangga resapan air dan berdampak pada terjadinya erosi dan banjir. Erosi tentu mempercepat proses pendangkalan pada danau Tempe. Hal ini juga dikemukakan dalam Ikrima et al (2016) bahwa selain banjir di danau Tempe, juga terjadi pendangkalan danau yang diakibatkan oleh banyaknya sedimentasi yang terangkut dari hulu DAS. Selanjutnya danau Tempe diprediksikan mengalami peningkatan sedimentasi sebesar 15-20 cm per tahun. Peningkatan sedimentasi mengakibatkan meluapnya danau Tempe pada musim hujan yang luasannya mencapai 30.000 ha dan pada musim kering menurun menjadi 1.000 ha sehingga luasan tangkapan danau menjadi berkurang. DAS Bila terdiri dari 3 sub-DAS yaitu sub-DAS Bila, sub-DAS Bungin dan sub-DAS Cenrana. Sub-DAS Bila termasuk dalam bagian hulu dari DAS Bila. Bagian hulu berperan sebagai kawasan penyangga (buffer) yang didominasi oleh hutan dengan topografi yang berbukit dan bergelombang. Kawasan penyangga di sub-DAS Bila adalah tempat ideal dalam menangkap air. Akar pohon dalam hutan mampu menyerap air sedangkan humus juga mampu menahan laju air. Sehingga menjaga kelestarian hulu DAS Bila yakni sub-DAS Bila mampu mengurangi masalah banjir dan pendangkalan danau. Perubahan tutupan dan penggunaan lahan dapat diakibatkan oleh faktor alam serta aktivitas manusia (Sajikumar dan Remya, 2015). Dalam pelaksanaan pembangunan, Perubahan penggunaan lahan tidak dapat dihindari, begitupun di sub-DAS Bila. Faktor yang berperan penting dalam penggunaan lahan lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas manusia. Perubahan bisa terjadi karena adanya keinginan manusia untuk memenuhi kebutuhannya yang makin meningkat jumlahnya serta meningkatnya hasrat untuk perbaikan mutu kehidupannya. Dinamika perubahan jumlah penduduk seperti pada saat ini menyebabkan terjadinya konversi penggunaan lahan yang cukup besar dan mengakibatkan berubah fungsi. Misalnya dari hutan menjadi lahan pertanian atau perkebunan dan dari lahan pertanian menjadi kawasan pemukiman dan industri (Prabowo et al, 2017). Dengan demikian, sub-DAS Bila dapat diindikasikan akan mengalami konversi lahan seiring dengan perkembangan kebutuhan lahan manusia saat ini. Perubahan penggunaan lahan dapat dianalisis dengan pemanfaatan penginderaan jauh berupa data citra satelit dan dikelola melalui sistem informasi geografis. Perubahan penggunaan lahan secara keruangan dapat dilakukan dengan cara mengkaji perubahan penggunaan lahan antara lain menghitung luas perubahan penggunaan lahan, tingkat perubahan penggunaan lahan, menganalisis

Eventology of multivariate statistics
Eventology and mathematical eventology
Philosophical eventology and philosophy of probability
Practical eventology
Eventology of safety
Eventological economics and psychology
Mathematics in the humanities, socio-economic and natural sciences
Financial and actuarial mathematics
Multivariate statistical analysis
Multivariate complex analysis
Decision-making under risk and uncertainty
Risk measurement and risk models
Theory of fuzzy events and generalized theory of uncertainty
System analysis and events management

EEC'2016 ~ workshop on axiomatizing experience and chance, and Hilbert's sixth problem

With topics from quantum physics, probability and believability to economics, sociology and psychology, the workshop will be intended for an interdisciplinary discussion on mathematical theories of experience and chance. Topics of discussion include the results, thoughts and ideas on axiomatization of the eventological theory of experience and chance in the framework of the decision of Hilbert sixth problem.
Eventology of experience and chance
Beleivability theory and statistics of experience
Probability theory and statistics of chance
Axiomatizing experience and chance

Artificial neural network Automated seizure detection Closed-loop methods ECG-based seizure detection EEG-based seizure detection Fourier Higher-order spectra Markov modeling Support vector machine Nearly one-third of patients with epilepsy continue to have seizures despite optimal medication management. Systems employed to detect seizures may have the potential to improve outcomes in these patients by allowing more tailored therapies and might, additionally, have a role in accident and SUDEP prevention. Automated seizure detection and prediction require algorithms which employ feature computation and subsequent classification. Over the last few decades, methods have been developed to detect seizures utilizing scalp and intracranial EEG, electrocardiography, accelerometry and motion sensors, electrodermal activity, and audio/video captures. To date, it is unclear which combination of detection technologies yields the best results, and approaches may ultimately need to be individualized. This review presents an overview of seizure detection and related prediction methods and discusses their potential uses in closed-loop warning systems in epilepsy.

Radio frequency (RF) energy harvesting and transfer techniques have recently become alternative methods to power the next generation of wireless networks. As this emerging technology enables proactive replenishment of wireless devices, it is advantageous in supporting applications with quality-of-service (QoS) requirement. This article focuses on the resource allocation issues in wireless networks with RF energy harvesting capability, referred to as RF energy harvesting networks (RF-EHNs). First, we present an overview of the RF-EHNs, followed by a review of a variety of issues regarding resource allocation. Then, we present a case study of designing in the receiver operation policy, which is of paramount importance in the RF-EHNs. We focus on QoS support and service differentiation, which have not been addressed by previous literature. Furthermore, we outline some open research directions.

The results obtained prove that the sensor node possess good features such as, low cost, simple to use, minimal power consumption, long network range and compatibility with analog/digital sensors. The simple construction procedures create the possibility of implementing such customizable sensor node for the different environmental monitoring applications.

In this paper, we perform a survey of various techniques that can be used to perform change detection on a pair of images taken at different times. Each of these techniques perform analysis on multitemporal images and identify modifications, if any. The advantages and disadvantages of each technique is identified and scrutinized to evaluate the performance of each technique. A comparative analysis of the techniques is performed to determine the most suitable technique to be employed for different scenarios, like video surveillance, infrastructure monitoring and so on.

The overall aim of this research is to develop an efficient accident causative model for job hazards prevalent in an oil and gas facility operating onshore and offshore conurbation and estimate future accident expenditure in the system. A questionnaire survey was used based on the findings from the interviews and focus group discussions. Markovian model was developed using QM for Windows software. The possible types of the accident for a company operation onshore and offshore environment were investigated. It was found that oil and gas workers were exposed to different hazards despite the existing legislations enacted to impact on the provision of occupational health and safety in the industry. The accident types investigated include Road, Marine, helicopter, workplace, medical, attack, community invasion, and fire. Road transportation can be seen to be the most prevalent source of an accident followed by a workplace hazard. From the model developed using Markov analysis, it is evident that 99.8% of workers in the Trivial state (S3) would transit to Terminal state (S1); it was also noticed from the F matrix that it would take an average period of 4 years and eight months for this transition. However, it was observed that 99.8% of workers in Major state (S2) would transmit to a terminal state (S1) at an average period of 2 years as shown in the F matrix. It is therefore recommended that road leading to the inbound and outbound facilities of the company should be in an excellent condition; offshore workers must receive adequate training on survival at sea and helicopter underwater escape. Site workers must also be properly kitted with personal protective equipment to prevent workplace hazard.

The study focuses on analyzing the policies followed in Turkey based on inflation targeting with an application of interest rate corridor policy in which the spread between the two policy rates, namely, the borrowing and lending rates. To overcome the difficulty of two different policy rates, two indices, the PDI and the MDI are utilized to capture the response of the monetary authority within a nonlinear Taylor rule context. The empirical findings for the Turkish economy with MS-VAR and MS-Granger causality analyses suggest that while the policy interest rates are determined in the spirit of the Taylor rule, the monetary policy involuntarily affirms inflation after the application of the policy, a finding that is consistent with the FTPL theory. As a result, as the central bank tries to establish price stability and financial stability with two policy interest rates, accepting higher inflation rates could be unavoidable. The results also are in favor of bi-directional nonlinear causality which led to important policy implications.

Dynamically deciding on the ticket prices leverages a substantial gain at a flight and total revenue level. To support these decisions, important elements of modern revenue management systems are the forecast of expected demands and the price optimization for a given seat inventory. This study presents a dynamic pricing model evaluation for a single-leg flight without cancellations and no-shows built on the consideration of both elemental parts in revenue management. We characterize the demand by estimating customer price response and inter-arrival times between two customers that book a ticket. In contrast to the belief that these processes follow a pre-defined stochastic distribution, we support our estimation with the fitting of several families of distributions to its underlying stochastic processes. Relaxing the assumption that inter-arrival times are exponentially distributed opens new possibilities beyond Poisson modelled arrival processes and thus provides the flexibility to apply general renewal processes. We choose the best suitable distribution type and calculate its parameters with maximum likelihood estimation. They fit the data better than conventional models. Finally, using the chosen dynamic model, we integrate both forecasting and optimization parts calculating the optimal price trajectory and expected revenue for a particular flight in a real-world case using industry data. With a flexible description of the arrival and buying behaviours and the evaluation of this input in the dynamic model for the optimal price estimation, an increase of revenue is expected.