Demand Analysis

When making choices, individuals can follow alternative strategies or decision rules to the traditional compensatory utility maximization, raising doubts about to what extent these choices can be used to elicit preferences. In this paper we use a verbal protocol approach to investigate the use of alternative decision rules in discrete choice experiments. The main interest is to identify some of

The starting point of this paper is the idea of threshold behavior, which has considerable support in psychology but has been neglected by economists. The implications of having a consumer theory that puts emphasis on threshold behavior towards prices and quantities are examined. It is shown that a threshold-based demand curve can be derived from a hierarchical approach to consumer behavior and also from a customs- or habits-oriented response to price by the consumer. These threshold-based demand curves can provide an additional explanation for price rigidity in the product market.

Previous studies on the determinants of television demand for the Formula 1 World Championship have basically focused on the effects of uncertainty of outcome on the size of television audience. This work aims to consider the effects generated on this demand by the competition among television channels that simultaneously broadcast the same event (F1 Grand Prize) for a certain jurisdiction. The conclusions reached show an uncertain result in terms of audience size of the predominance of one channel over another. It is also questioned whether reselling of the television rights is a profitable policy. Finally, factors inherent to a particular television channel or belonging to a specific jurisdiction should also be considered in the context of these studies.

Shellfish farming is the most common and the most established activity of aquaculture in France and in EU15. Such as main suppliers of mussels and oysters, mariculture production makes up the referent market for bivalves molluscs, unlike most other aquatic species for which capture fisheries are prevalent. Moreover, the specificity of oyster cultivation is marked with respect to the French position which is both leader and almost self sufficient on the European market. The sustainable development of shellfish farming is analysed through a "demand-oriented-approach". The field of the study covers trading and marketing issues as well as consumer analysis. The comparison between the mussel and the oyster market highlight some key differences, in terms of distribution network, identification of origin and products differentiation, consumer profiles and regions. This lead to examine deeply the ways of market segmentation in relation with the image of the product and the consumer expectations. Quantitative surveys, mainly consumer panels, are used over a 15 years period to attempt a dynamic approach of the "age" criteria (consumers' life cycle and generation effect). This is completed by a qualitative analysis of consumer attitude towards shellfish and an overview of the current innovation process in the two sectors concerned.

Penelitian dilakukan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan telur ayam ras serta menganalisis tingkat elastisitas permintaan telur ayam ras di Kecamatan Seruyan Hilir. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan telur ayam ras meliputi harga telur ayam ras itu sendiri, harga ikan asin, harga ikan bandeng, pendapatan rumah tangga, jumlah anggota keluarga dan tingkat pendidikan ibu rumah tangga berpengaruh nyata terhadap variabel terikat yaitu permintaan telur ayam ras. Secara individual faktor harga telur ayam ras itu sendiri, harga ikan asin, harga beras, pendapatan rumah tangga dan jumlah anggota keluarga berpengaruh nyata terhadap permintaan telur ayam ras sedangkan untuk harga ikan bandeng dan tingkat pendidikan formal ibu rumah tangga tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap variabel terikat. Tingkat elastisitas permintaan telur ayam ras di kecamatan Seruyan hilir, untuk elastisitas harga bersifat inelastis, dimana suatu kenaikan harga telur ayam ras akan menyebabkan perubahan jumlah yang diminta lebih kecil dari perubahan harga. Nilai koefisien elastisitas harga adalah -0,175. Untuk elastisitas silang untuk harga ikan asin dan harga beras adalah negatif yang merupakan barang komplementer (pelengkap) dan positif terhadap ikan bandeng yang merupakan barang substitusi (pengganti). Sedangkan elastisitas pendapatan adalah positif 0,843 menunjukkan bahwa permintaan telur ayam ras merupakan elastisitas pendapatan inelastis yang bersifat barang normal yaitu apabila telur ayam ras mengalami kenaikan dalam permintaan sebagai akibat dari kenaikan pendapatan.Berdasarkan hasil ini, disarankan bahwa upaya lebih lanjut untuk meningkatkan produksi telur ayam ras harus selalu dibuat dalam rangka memenuhi peningkatan kebutuhan konsumsi dan untuk mengejar standar yang ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah Kabupaten Seruyan.

Kata kunci: telur ayam, permintaan, elastisitas

We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in agents' estimates of these fundamentals (noise). We use a simple forward-looking model of consumption to address some methodological issues:

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, LNG is projected to become a much larger share of U.S. natural gas consumption, rising from current levels of around 2.5% of total natural gas consumption to 12.4% by 2030. Because natural gas and LNG are substitutes, natural gas prices are expected to be an important determinant of LNG imports. Furthermore, an increasing share of LNG is traded under short-term contracts with spot shipments being diverted to markets offering the highest returns (netbacks). Natural gas prices as well as LNG transportation costs are important determinants of LNG netbacks. This paper examines the empirical relationship between U.S. LNG imports, the Henry Hub price of natural gas, and a proxy for LNG transportation costs using monthly data from 1997 to 2007. Granger causality tests, error variance decomposition, and impulse response analyses using a VAR model are employed to establish Granger-causality as well as the dynamics of natural gas prices and LNG transportation innovations on LNG imports.

Although some production and marketing restrictions are barely defined, Dera area is a potential teff producer in Ethiopia’s Southern Gondar zone. The study analysed teff production, focusing on factors that affect the volume of teff sold, based on data collected from household surveys, respondent interviews, and focus group discussions. Both descriptive and econometric analyses were used. The results show that teff grown in the study area is mixed, practised by 34.5% of households, followed by red teff (32.16%) with commonly used storage facilities such as Gota, Gotera, and Sack. In terms of marketing, the results show that 57.7% of teff produced in the 2019 sowing season was delivered to the market through rural retailers, wholesalers, and directly from producers to consumers. The result of the ordinary least squares estimates of the multiple linear regression model indicates the gender of the head of household, the experience of the head of household, the amount of teff produced,...

In our days the demand for sea transport is in great importance. The commodities that are transported have many differences on the type and on the groups that they divided into.

Below there will be a presentation of the demand in our days for the sea transport and how this demand can be examined as a direct or not. The below project is separated into four (4), in my opinion, chapters and each one has divided into sub-chapters, so as to be understood that all the chapters are connected each other. The terms that examined in my project are all linked to the today's and tomorrow's phase of the shipping market and are all updated. However, it is well mentioned that the structure of the shipping market hasn't changed more, since their first steps after the World War II, when the demand for sea transport was in her maximum level. Since then, the commodities are traded in almost the same rhythm with differences in the types of goods and the number of the consumers, which now is more.

Begging from the first chapter, I make a presentation of the nature of transport demand. It is a part that cannot be examined correctly, if we neglect the fact that it is very important and vital term in our daily life. Of course, we have to consider the factors that affect the product's service, which are all connected each other and these are the price, the speed, the reliability and the security. They are also important the factors that determine the demand for the specific product. These are the tastes of the consumers, the number of consumers, the consumers' incomes, the prices of the related goods and finally the expectations of the consumers about future prices and incomes. In this part of presentation, I have to say that all the factors are not same and they are factors that can be settled as direct and indirect. The direct ones, are the speed, the safety, the reliability and the freight market. On the other hand, the indirect are all the factors that affect the demand or supply in the product's market.

Continuing my presentation, in the second chapter I am doing a report about the commodities that are traded by sea and their groups. This is a very extensive chapter, due to the fact that they exist, and so they are traded, many types of many commodities. These are divided into some groups so as to be easily accessed and examined each time. So, the commodities that are traded are collected from the Agricultural family, the Metal industry group, the forest products, the energy sector and other manufacturers and industrial materials. In today's shipping market, they are traded many types and many groups of different commodities. From bulk grain to ores and minerals. All these types of goods have not a common type of transportation and stowage, and that's why they are not available in the same time and price from other products. This division created the need for being categorized in bulk cargo and general cargo. Another type of goods being transported is the dangerous goods. In this category they belong specific commodities, which are all identified and selected from the IMO (International Maritime Organization), and divided into nine (9) classes depending on the dangerous level they belong to. The IMO also makes frequent revisions in the classes and in the types of stowage and handling with care of these goods.

In the third chapter, I make a review to the world economy in connection to the demand for sea transport. The aim of this chapter is to locate and explain the main terms that compose the meaning of demand. These are all connected and co-exist in the world economy. Terms like the freight rate market, the types of freight that exist, the Parcel Size Distribution Function (PSDF) are all relevant to the understanding of the demand for sea transport. In the presentation of the PSDF, there is also a sub-chapter explaining the purpose of this function, which is important too, including the factors that affect the shape of the PSDF.

Ending, in the fourth chapter, I selected to present all the costs that compose the transportation of the commodities demanded, from one place to another. The expenses arising from the transport of the goods, can be examined and divided into two main parts. The maritime transport costs and the overland transport costs. In the first case, the costs are al the expenses demanded for the safely transportation of the goods by sea. This include wages for the crew, fuel consumption, indemnity charges, perils, fees and port dues, operating costs, repairs and maintenance costs. The second part of costs are the overland costs and they are the expenses from the time the goods leave the ship till the time they arrive in the final destination, which is the consumers. In this case, we find costs for the warehouses, wages for the workmen, expenses arising from the operation of the railway or any other transport system the port has, the use of FLTs and many others.

Phronetic organizational research is an approach to the study of management and organizations focusing on ethics and power. It is based on a contemporary interpretation of the Aristotelian concept phronesis, usually as ‘prudence’. Phronesis is the ability to think and act in relation to values, to deliberate about ‘things that are good or bad for humans’ in the words of Aristotle (1976:1140a24–b12). Phronetic organizational research effectively provides answers to the following four value-rational questions, for specific problematics in management and organization studies: 1. Where are we going with this specific management problematic? 2. Who gains and who loses, and by which mechanisms of power? 3. Is this development desirable? 4. What, if anything, should we do about it?

Introduction
What follows are lecture notes on demand theory with commodity money. While I have used the contents of chapters 2 and 3 of the textbook entitled “Microeconomic Theory” by Andreu Mas-Colell, Michael D. Whinston and Jerry R. Green, published by Oxford University Press in June 1995, as a template for a substantial portion of these lecture notes, I am not aware of the existence of any other full length and exclusive treatment of demand theory with money as a commodity. At times it was extremely tempting for me to work on the MS Word lecture notes prepared by Paul Glewwe for his course on “Applied Microeconomics of Consumer Choice and Consumer Demand” (Apec 8001) in the Applied Economics department of University of Minnesota, which he had very kindly and generously shared with me. I did not, since preparing these notes gave me an opportunity to revisit the subject- an opportunity I would have missed otherwise. The motive for these lecture notes is the paper by me entitled “Consumer Surplus and Budget Constrained Preference Maximization”, (forthcoming in Managerial Economics). These notes are a rigorous exposition of the framework of the paper with additional results that may be of interest.
An immediate consequence of introducing money as a commodity is that that the homogeneity assumption of the demand function for goods (i.e. non-monetary commodity) has to be sacrificed. We do provide an alternative definition of homogeneity which is appropriate in our framework and whose implications are discussed in the fifth chapter. Our demand functions are meaningful in two contexts: the partial equilibrium model, where money is saved to be spent on commodities other than those that we consider in our model and in the general equilibrium context, where money is saved for consumption during future periods. However, this general equilibrium model is not the Arrow-Debrue- McKenzie model with dated commodities, but the temporary general equilibrium model introduced by Sir John Hicks in his treatise entitled “Value and Capital”. If the temporary general equilibrium model is akin to a model with every day in a man’s life being a different day with its own morning and its own evening, then in the Arrow-Debreu model the entire life of a man being is considered to be a day, with as many different mornings and different evenings, as the number of days he actually lives (assuming all men die at night!). If a man lives for just one day, then obviously no savings are required. However, if “tomorrow is another day” then a person may or may not choose to save for tomorrow.
With money as a commodity, the Marshallian demand “curve” acquires a non-trivial existence of its own and meaningfully represents the concept of a marginal willingness to pay function for surplus maximizing consumers. Its implications for social welfare are enormous- social welfare is “best” if and only if consumers are surplus maximizers. Another implication of a surplus maximizing consumer is that our chapter 1 on consumer demand theory (based largely on Chapter 2 of MWG (June 1995)) acquires a relevance of its own, beyond being an abstract generalization of some results in classical demand theory.
The fourth chapter of these lecture notes deals with classical demand theory. Most treatments of classical demand theory begin with an elaborate discussion about numerical representation of preferences or more generally binary relations. Undoubtedly this is an important topic in Order Theory, which is a branch of applied mathematics and in the study of representation of social preferences by social utility functions- an important topic in welfare economics. In consumer demand theory, I have hardly ever come across any application of consumer preferences which are not representable by utility functions. Even the demand function generated by the “much hyped” lexicographic preferences can be generated by a budget-constrained utility maximizing consumer whose utility from a consumption bundle is measured by the quantity consumed of the commodity that enjoys “top priority”. Hence we adopt the approach towards demand theory that has been adopted by Duncan Foley in his classic text “Economic Reasoning”, and assume that consumers in classical demand theory have preferences representable by utility functions. Our major contribution in this chapter is that budget constrained utility maximimizing consumers with Walrasian demand “curves” satisfying a “Boundedness Condition” are surplus maximizers, because the area under the demand curves measure their willingness to pay for the quantity of the good (whose demand curve we are concerned with) that is consumed. The rest is mostly as in the chapter on classical demand theory in MWG (June 1995).
The fifth chapter of these lecture notes discusses a concept of homogeneity that is appropriate for our framework. Its implication for classical demand theory is quite interesting- the shadow price/ marginal value/marginal indirect utility of income is in fact the marginal utility of savings for a budget constrained utility maximizing consumer.
In the sixth and last chapter of these notes we discuss functional forms in demand theory- a topic that- for reasons unknown to me- are not discussed in most graduate microeconomics or any mathematical economics course, but dealt with in applied econometrics or demand analysis courses. Hence this topic- in spite of being probably the most practically applicable one in demand theory- remains unnoticed by several mathematically inclined graduate students during their course work at graduate school and thereafter. I have introduced this topic in these notes for three reasons: (i) for its potential as a serious research topic for theoretically inclined graduate students in economics who are interested in demand theory; (ii) for its wide applicability; and (ii) to show that introducing savings in consumer demand theory has significant implications for the associated functional forms for possible utility and demand functions. For instance, assuming that savings are a constant fraction of expenditure goes a long way in accommodating the existing results within our framework. Even homogeneity properties often require adjustment for the results we seek.
To understand these notes, it would be a good idea to be familiar with the mathematics in “Fundamental Concepts of Analysis”, by Alton H. Smith and Walter A. Albrecht, Jr. and the economics in “Essentials of Microeconomics” by Bonnie Nguyen and Andrew Wait.
Two people taught me consumer demand theory: Professor Shanti Chakraboty at ISI (Kolkata) in 1979 and Professor Leonid Hurwicz at University of Minnesota in 1981. However, these notes are an attempt as a teacher of microeconomics at MBA and undergraduate level, to provide a rigorous foundation of some things we teach. Although I have been teaching microeconomics to MBA and undergraduate students as a full-time faculty since 1987, it was only after joining PDPU in September 2007, that I got the opportunity to teach the whole and hence the pre-midterm portion of the course, and that is where demand theory is located. Before that it was almost always that I got to teach the post-midterm portion only. There is always a big difference between a hypothetical problem and a problem that one faces in reality. Convincing myself that there is a rigorous and logically consistent basis for what I teach the students- whether I share the details with them or not- is a problem in the latter category for me. Hence, there is some truth in the assertion that these notes owe a lot to the courses I teach at PDPU. After I move on, these notes will remain for enquiring minds- both student and faculty.
This is work in progress and hence a separate Acknowledgment section makes sense, only after it has been class tested by friends and colleagues and I have been informed about the innumerable errors these notes contain. For those generous individuals who will spare a few pennies’ worth of thought for these notes and revert back to me (constructively?), I have the following extract from the parody of Thomas Moore’s poem (“Oft in the stilly night...”) that was penned by Ogden Nash:
Oft in the stilly night,
When the mind is fumbling fuzzily,
I brood about how little I know,
And know that little so muzzily.
Ere slumber's chains have bound me,
I think it would suit me nicely,
If I knew one tenth of the little I know,
But knew that tenth precisely.
~
~
~
Gently my eyelids close;
I'd rather be good than clever;
And I'd rather have my facts all wrong
Then have no facts whatever.
It is for such generous and “critical” readers of these notes that the real “Thank you” is yet waiting to be said.
Somdeb Lahiri.
Ahmedabad.
September 14, 2020.

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

The article shows a method with which to easily and quickly determine the market in business plans, a method that has been developed based on the theoretical contribution of several authors and their confrontation with the formal requirements of the investment projects in as well as to customers, demand and sales, thus giving a high degree of validity to the results of economic, administrative and accounting sciences research by the use of quantitative and qualitative techniques in the collection and analysis of data. The analysis of the information collected proposes a demand formula and a procedure to calculate the niche, the market share and finally realize the sales budget, contributing, not only, to existing knowledge, but also giving rise to new research that prove or refute it.

Forecasting Methods:
1. Qualitative Methods
1.1) Jury of executive methods/Expert Judgment/Jury of Executive opinion method
1.2) Delphi method
1.3) Scenario Writing
1.4) Intuitive Approaches
2. Quantitative Methods
2.1) Time Series Methods
2.1.1) Trend projection method
2.1.2) Trend Projection Adjusted Seasonal Influence
2.1.3) Smoothing Method
2.1.3.1) Moving Average
2.1.3.2) Weighted Moving Average
2.1.3.3) Exponential smoothing method
2.2) Casual Method
2.2.1) Consumption level
2.2.2) Chain ratio
2.2.3) End use
2.2.4) Bass diffusion
2.2.5) Leading indicator
2.2.6) Econometric model

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2701.7208

The amount of electricity generation and its availability to the residents of a country reflects its level of development and economic condition. Water being one of the cheapest and renewable sources of energy, is being used to produce one-quarter of the total electricity production in Pakistan. This article presents a forecasting study of hydroelectricity consumption in Pakistan based on the historical data of past 53 years using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) modeling. Based on the developed forecasting equation, the hydroelectricity consumption was predicted up to the year 2030. For validating the reliability of the forecasted data, the results were compared to the actual values which showed good fit with minimum deviation. The forecasted values of hydroelectricity consumption revealed an average annual increment of 1.65% with a cumulative increase of 23.4% up to the year 2030. The results were compared with the hydroelectricity generation plans of the Government of Pakistan for its effectiveness. A sensitivity analysis was also performed to study the relation of hydroelectricity consumption to the annual population and GDP growth rate of the country. The research shall significantly prove to be useful in better planning and management of water resources of Pakistan for future.

Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.

The concept of demand and supply can be used to understand the nature of markets and how prices and output are determined and specific economic issues. Therefore, it is necessary to have a good understanding of the demand and supply principles.

Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost–benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as ‘survival of the unfittest’. Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending, combined with more investments in emerging economies, combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire.

This paper argues that, from the standpoint of Mengerian causal-realist price theory, the income effect is not only unnecessary for deriving the individual demand curve but also is illusory. This is done by demonstrating that the demand curve can be derived from ordinal scales of values using the law of diminishing marginal utility. This analysis is then applied to show that a backward-bending individual labor supply curve does not imply the existence of the income effect.

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

This study investigates various aspects of operation management, such as, demand and forecast, production process, operation strategy and how to apply lean as well as 'Just-In-Time' theory to improve the operation system and performance objectives. It focuses on these aspects in relation to a specific case study based on activities of two companies, Abdul Monem Limited and Tabani Beverage Limited, who are producing soft drinks of "The Coca Cola Company".The information have been collected from both primary and secondary sources of data.The producing company need to differentiate products, size of bottle to expand market and reduce time of pre-processing stock inventory to maintain profit margin. The company may use water and rail road to decrease transportation cost and time. Further research is needed to improve the operation management of the Coca cola producing company in Bangladesh.

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this tendency appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration. HM Treasury recommends that these adjustments be based on data from past projects or similar projects elsewhere, and adjusted for the unique characteristics of the project in hand. In the absence of a more specific evidence base, HM Treasury has encouraged departments to collect data to inform future estimates of optimism, and in the meantime use the best available data. In response to this, the Department for Transport (henceforth DfT), has contracted Bent Flyvbjerg in association with COWI to undertake the consultancy assignment "Procedures for dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning". The present Guidance Document is the result of this assignment.

This paper describes a case study of a neighborhood pub in British Columbia, Canada. This case study is an examination of three common pub occupations-bartending, waitressing and cooking (n ¼ 17). The aims of this study are to determine the biomechanical loads of job tasks identified as physically demanding for the three occupations analyzed, to assess the potential risk of musculoskeletal injury in these job tasks, and to recommend injury prevention measures. Risk of musculoskeletal injury was assessed with four validated methods (RULA, NIOSH lifting equation, Shoaf pulling model, 3D Static Strength prediction program). Tasks commonly and frequently performed were observed to pose some risk to the working populations and require investigation and changes soon as indicated by the upper extremity and low-back assessment procedures used. Mean combined compression at the lumbrosacral disc in common tasks have been demonstrated to exceed the action limit described by NIOSH. Ligament strain was observed to reach as high as18% at the lumbosacral joint. r

"Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost, benefits, and time forecasts for such projects are systematically over-optimistic in the planning phase. The underlying reasons for forecasting errors are grouped into three categories: delusions or honest mistakes; deceptions or strategic manipulation of information or processes; or bad luck. Delusion and deception have each been addressed in the management literature before, but here they are jointly considered for the first time. They are specifically applied to infrastructure problems in a manner that allows both academics and practitioners to understand and implement the suggested corrective procedures. The article provides a framework for analyzing the relative explanatory power of delusion and deception. It also suggests a simplified framework for analyzing the complex principal-agent relationships that are involved in the approval and construction of large infrastructure projects, which can be used to improve forecasts. Finally, the article illustrates reference class forecasting, an outside view de-biasing technique that has proven successful in overcoming both delusion and deception in private and public investment decisions.

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. For 9 out of 10 rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; the average overestimation is 106%. For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare. Our data also show that forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied, despite claims to the contrary by forecasters. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. Our article shows how planners may help achieve this.

Barley is cultivated by small holders in every region of Ethiopia, since it is able to grow at all elevations, but it performs best at the higher elevations in the northern and central regions of the country. Barley is a major staple food crop in the highlands of Ethiopia. The crop is used for preparing various types of traditional foods such as Kita, Kolo, Beso, Enjera, Giat, cuko (shakeka) and many others. Although the day to day survival is linked to barley, little focus has been given to improve the productivity of the crop in the dry land. The market potential for malt barley is directly dependent on the market for beer; as such, its potential can best be assessed by looking at the evolving dynamics of Ethiopia's growing brewery sector. Much of Ethiopia's beer demand is currently being met by domestic brands. BGI Castel is the largest operator in the market, with production capacity of roughly 2 million hectoliters per year (out of a total market production of ~4 million hectoliters per year. The major players in the barley value chain are the input suppliers, smallholders, state and commercial farms, rural assemblers, cooperative unions, grain wholesalers, flourmills, processed food wholesalers, grain retailers, bakeries and pastries, and retailers of processed food. Donors and NGOs also play some role in procuring barley locally for their relief and development activities. To balance the demand and supply of barley the country have to be increase the productivity of the barley by using modern technology, high-yield varieties for specific location based on end user needs, with varieties to include characteristics such as resistance to drought and diseases.

Do different types of megaprojects have different cost overruns? This apparently simple question is at the heart of research at the University of Oxford aimed at understanding the characteristics of megaprojects, particularly in terms of how they are established, run and concluded. In this study, we set out to investigate cost overruns in the Olympic Games. To do so, we examined the costs of the Games over half a century, including both summer and winter Olympics. We looked at the evolution of final reported costs and compared these to the costs established in the Games bids, submitted to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) up to seven years before the Games occurred. In so doing we established the largest dataset of its kind, and documented for the first time in a consistent fashion the costs and cost overruns for the Olympic Games, from 1960 to 2012. We discovered that the Games stand out in two distinct ways compared to other megaprojects: (1) The Games overrun with 100 per cent consistency. No other type of megaproject is this consistent regarding cost overrun. Other project types are typically on budget from time to time, but not the Olympics. (2) With an average cost overrun in real terms of 179 per cent – and 324 per cent in nominal terms – overruns in the Games have historically been significantly larger than for other types of megaprojects, including infrastructure, construction, ICT, and dams. The data thus show that for a city and nation to decide to host the Olympic Games is to take on one of the most financially risky type of megaproject that exists, something that many cities and nations have learned to their peril. For the London 2012 Games, we find that: (1) With sports-related real costs currently estimated at USD14.8 billion, London is on track to become the most costly Olympics ever. (2) With a projected cost overrun of 101 per cent in real terms, overrun for London is below the historical average for the Games, but not significantly so. (3) The London cost overrun is, however, significantly higher than overruns for recent Games since 1999. London therefore is reversing a positive trend of falling cost overruns for the Games.

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

For over fifty years, successive waves of critique have underscored that the apolitical character of much of Political Science research betrays the founding mission of the discipline to have science serve democracy. The Caucus for a New Political Science was originally based on such a critique, and the Perestroika movement in the discipline included a call for more problem-driven as opposed to theory- or method-driven work that would better connect Political Science research to ongoing political struggles. In recent years, movements for a public Sociology and public Anthropology as well as dissonant movements in Economics and related fields have added to the insistence that social science research was too often disconnected from the real world. Phronetic Social Science has emerged out of the ferment for change in the social sciences, starting with the much-debated book by Bent Flyvbjerg, Making Social Science Matter (Cambridge 2001). Flyvbjerg critiqued the social sciences for mimicking the natural sciences while proposing an alternative approach that focuses research on helping people address the problems they are facing in the context they are facing them. Today, Phronetic Social Science goes beyond the call for an alternative approach to social inquiry and its growing adherents are providing evidence that this alternative approach to doing research can enrich the social sciences by more effectively connecting research to efforts to address real world problems as people experience them. This essay provides a genealogy of efforts to connect Political Science to politics, a review of the major critiques of mainstream research, an explication of the rationale for more problem-driven, mixed methods research, a specification of the key principles of the phronetic approach, and examples of its application in the public realm. The essay concludes with implications for realizing a more political Political Science by way of taking a phronetic approach.

Back cover text: This book aims to enlarge the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost-benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? - Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.

Most empirical macroeconomic research limited to the period since World War II. This paper analyses the effects of changes in income distribution and in private wealth on consumption and investment covering a period from as early as 1855 until 2010 for the UK, France, Germany and USA, based on the dataset of Piketty and Zucman (2014). We contribute to the post-Keynesian debate on the nature of demand regimes, mainstream analyses of wealth effects and the financialisation debate. We find that overall domestic demand has been wage-led in the USA, UK and Germany. Total investment responds positively to higher wage shares, which is driven by residential investment. For corporate investment alone, we find a negative relation. Wealth effects are found to be positive and significant for consumption in the USA and UK, but weaker in France and Germany. Investment is negatively affected by private wealth in the USA and the UK, but positively in France and Germany.

Cellular metabolism is a molecular economy that is functionally organised into supply and demand blocks linked by metabolic products and cofactor cycles. Supply^demand analysis allows the behaviour, control and regulation of metabolism as a whole to be understood quantitatively in terms of the elasticities of supply and demand, which are experimentally measurable properties of the individual blocks. The kinetic and thermodynamic aspects of regulation are clearly distinguished. One important result is the demonstration that when flux is controlled by one block, the other block determines to which degree the concentration of the linking metabolite is homeostatically maintained. ß 2000 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

We explore the engagement of the Indian society with a new place of consumption in India —the shopping mall. Based on extensive interviews with managers and consumers across Indian cities, we address the commercialisation and the consumption of malls as two separate social fields and we highlight the frictions between them. Since the early 2000's, the rapid development of these commercial infrastructures addressed the perceived demand of the so-called " new middle class ". However, the predominantly utilitarian conception of malls has often clashed with the actual uses of the diverse Indian consumer, whose need for safe and comfortable public places has transformed malls into major places of sociability, where a large number of users seldom consume or consume little. We argue that from " creating " a demand, agents in the field of mall supply have shifted their strategy towards " meeting " the demand, i.e. the need for specific " experiences ".

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure development pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is massive cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, the paper explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not the competition's, that gain approval and funding. This results in the "survival of the unfittest," where often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, the paper presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large infrastructure projects, with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance structures, the latter being more important.

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. This article demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. The article presents empirical evidence that allow valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects, including benchmarking of individual or groups of projects. Benchmarking of the Copenhagen Metro is presented as a case in point. The approach developed is proposed as a model for other types of policies and projects in order to improve economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy and planning.

El conocimiento convencional y algunas evidencias basadas en los ferrocarriles sobre el desarrollo orientado al tránsito (TOD, por sus siglas en inglés) postulan que existe una asociación positiva entre la cantidad de pasajeros en tránsito y la densidad de población alrededor de las estaciones. La densidad de población y los modos de tránsito masivo a menudo se han considerado complementarios en cuanto a la eficiencia de la movilidad urbana. Los altos niveles de densidad de población generalmente se consideran una condición necesaria para las inversiones en transporte público en los procesos de toma de decisiones relacionados con la respuesta a la demanda futura de transporte urbano. Aunque hay pruebas de asociación entre la densidad de población alrededor de las estaciones ferroviarias y el número de pasajeros en tránsito, todavía hay poca evidencia con respecto a esta asociación para los sistemas de tránsito rápido en autobús (BRT). En este artículo se examina la relación entre la densidad poblacional y la demanda de pasajeros en las estaciones de transporte público masivo tipo BRT en Curitiba, Quito y Bogotá, tres ciudades pioneras en implementar este tipo de sistemas. Los hallazgos sugieren que la elasticidad encontrada en Curitiba y Bogotá son similares a las encontradas en estudios similares para los sistemas de transporte masivo sobre rieles en ciudades de Norte América y Asia. Aunque la asociación positiva encontrada en Curitiba y Bogotá es similar este documento sugiere que la densidad poblacional por sí sola no implica altos niveles de demanda al nivel de la estación1. Los resultados buscan profundizar el conocimiento de la influencia de la densidad poblacional en la demanda de pasajeros de los sistemas tipo BRT a nivel de estación, proporcionando algunas implicaciones prácticas para la planeación de las estaciones de los sistemas tipo BRT para los tomadores de decisión y planificadores del transporte.