Crime Drop

This study contributes to crime drop research on the security hypothesis. Using data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales, it finds that the decline in attempted vehicle-related theft and domestic burglary was delayed by 2–4 years. Between 1993 and 1997, completed domestic burglary fell 21% but attempts by only 2.1%, while between 1993 and 1995 theft of cars fell 8% but attempts increased 3%. The delay is interpreted as consistent with rational choice theory and with some offenders continuing to try, but failing, to complete these crimes when faced with improved security. The subsequent decline in attempts is consistent with offenders, particularly new cohorts of adolescents, having been discouraged.

The “crime drop” is the most important criminological phenomenon of modern times. In North America, Europe, and Australasia, many common crimes have fallen by half or more since the early 1990s, albeit with variation in the specifics. Seventeen explanations are examined here including demographics, policing, imprisonment, drug markets, and lead poisoning. Pioneering research relevant only to the United States now appears, with the benefit of hindsight, somewhat parochial. Sixteen of the 17 hypotheses fail one or more of four evidence-based standardized tests on which they are assessed. The one that passes is the security hypothesis, underpinned
by crime opportunity theories. Here there is strong evidence that vehicle theft fell because of more and better security, and mounting evidence that improved security was critical in reducing burglary and other acquisitive crime. Many crime types are interrelated, while most criminal careers are
dominated by property crime, so removing these volume crimes might be expected to reduce violence.

This study contributes to crime drop research on the security hypothesis. Using data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales, it finds that the decline in attempted vehicle-related theft and domestic burglary was delayed by 2–4 years. Between 1993 and 1997, completed domestic burglary fell 21% but attempts by only 2.1%, while between 1993 and 1995 theft of cars fell 8% but attempts increased 3%. The delay is interpreted as consistent with rational choice theory and with some offenders continuing to try, but failing, to complete these crimes when faced with improved security. The subsequent decline in attempts is consistent with offenders, particularly new cohorts of adolescents, having been discouraged.

This article first uses the analytical lenses of crime opportunity, criminal propensity, and routine activity theory to evaluate Wendel et al.'s (2016) plausible and compelling ''more drugs, less crime'' hypothesis, the latest attempt to explain the crime decline that began in the 1990s. The authors' present exposition of the hypothesis is beleaguered by methodological problems that jeopardize the validity of its central claims. An alternative media-consumption hypothesis is then briefly outlined, which suggests that changes in media-consumption patterns beginning in the 1980s were a powerful catalyst for reductions in street crime. Because both hypotheses identify mechanisms that reduce both the opportunities and the propensities to commit crime, they stand out from the majority of crime-decline accounts which are presently oriented toward opportunity almost exclusively. Both hypotheses also happen to subvert conventional wisdom in ironic ways.

The "crime drop" is the most important criminological phenomenon of modern times. In North America, Europe, and Australasia, many common crimes have fallen by half or more since the early 1990s, albeit with variation in the specifics. Seventeen explanations are examined here including demographics, policing, imprisonment, drug markets, and lead poisoning. Pioneering research relevant only to the United States now appears, with the benefit of hindsight, somewhat parochial. Sixteen of the 17 hypotheses fail one or more of four evidence-based standardized tests on which they are assessed. The one that passes is the security hypothesis, underpinned by crime opportunity theories. Here there is strong evidence that vehicle theft fell because of more and better security, and mounting evidence that improved security was critical in reducing burglary and other acquisitive crime. Many crime types are interrelated, while most criminal careers are dominated by property crime, so removing these volume crimes might be expected to reduce violence.

One of the most robust findings in criminology is the fall in crime rates throughout the Western world. However, there is still much to be learnt about this and its causes. This case study analyses the Spanish juvenile crime trends and tests the explanatory capacity of the sociodemographic hypotheses. We use aggregate data provided by the police and self-report data. Our analysis could be of interest in a worldwide debate on the crime drop. Demographic changes and the economic situation have little relevance in explaining the changes. However, public policies seem to have had a greater impact on crime trends. Furthermore, gender equality can be considered a possible explanatory factor.