Transitioning to sustainability in Saskatchewan power production
Jeremy Rayner2010
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This paper hypothesizes the future of Saskatchewan power production based on the theory of transition management. Power generation law and policy in Saskatchewan over the last century to the present is analyzed as a key component of a socio-technical regime. Understanding the legacy of law and policy is important given sustainability concerns and the realization that significant changes will be required in trajectories of development putting less strain on natural capital and ecosystem services. This paper examines the critical relationship between governance strategies at the macro socio and political landscape level and the particular policy mix that is found in the socio-technical regime of power generation in Saskatchewan. This exercise is informed by transition management theory and also the alternative explanations of path dependency. Switch points critical to the trajectory of power generation development are identified and used to illustrate and assess the plausibility of th...
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TRANSITIONING TO SUSTAINABlLlTY IN SASKATCHEWAN POWER
PRODUCTION'
Margot Hurlbert, Jercrny Rayner, Kalhy McNutt
Abstract
This paper hypothcsizes thc future of Saskatchcwan power production bascd on the
theory of transition management. Power generation law and polie)' in Saskatchcwan ovcr
thc last ccolury 10 thc present is analyzed as a kcy component of a socio-technical regime.
Underslanding thc legac)' of law and polie)' is important given slistainability conccrns
and thc realization tImt significant changes \vill bc rcquired in Irajectorics of dcvelopment
putting 1ess strain on natural capilal and ecosystcm services.
This paper cx amines thc critical relationship bctwcen governance stratcgics althe maero
socia and polilical Jandscape level and thc particular policy mix thai is faund in the sociotechnical regime of power generation in Saskatchewan. This exercise is informed by
transition management theory and also the alternative explanations ofpalh depcndency.
Switch points critical to the trajectory of power generation development are idelltified
and uscd to illuslrate and asscss the plausibility of these theorelieal concepls. Current
landscape developments in Saskatchewan, including the emergencc of concems for
human-induced climatc change, the developmcnt of wind power and even the reemergencc ofnuclcar power generation as a poliey option, may facilitatc a transition
towards greater sustainability. These sustainability paths are juxtaposed against the
development of Saskalchewan's oil sands and the developmcnt of carbon capturc
sequestration tcchnology. Possiblc future alternative pathways 10 sustainable power
produelion are outlined and critiqued in the current Saskatchewan governance context.
Kc)'words: transilion man;lgemcnt, power general ion, suslainability.
I INTRODUCTION
This paper facuses on transitianing (or change) in power production and thc challengc of
lransitioning to suslainablc power production.
Sustainability in this contcxt does not
mean the continuance of the current actors such as SaskPowcr, or sustainability of thc
eurrcnt technology employed, or the sustainability of Saskatchcwan's current energy
sourccs, wind, coal etc. Sustainability mcans making decisions aboul the environment
ensuring its preservation for future generations (Redclift ct al., 1997). Power generation
I Thc author acknowlcdges linancial support for thc research on which this paper is bascd from thc Social
Scicllce and Humanitics Research Council's Clllladilll1 Environmentallssucs prograrn.
and supply has becorne a key focus for sustainability glven its conlributions 10
grccnhouse gas emissions and global and national c1imate change. Saskatchcwan is a
prime case study given its vertical and horizontal efTectivc monopolyactor, SaskPower
wh ich simplifies Ihe idcntification of govcrnment policy and power production decision
points.
Path dependency is an approach to policy devclopmcnt which rccognizcs that the
adoption of a particular technology is followed by significant investment. As such an
initial decision or "switch point" creates positive feedback whieh supports further
rcfincments of thc same technology at new swilch points. Thc accumulation of sunk
costs makes it increasingly difficult 10 diverge from this path or reopen thc initial
decision, however suboptimal thc outcomcs may scern to bc in cornparison with
competing tcchnologies.
These initial switeh points and the following constrained
decision making in future policy choices rccreates und perpctuutcs thc tcchnology
initially chosen and thus creates an entrcnched socio-technical regime (Howlett, 2006;
I-Iaydu, 1998).
While path dependcncy explains continuity, a new understanding of change was required
in institutional devclopment seeking 10 dcvelop strategies to swirch pathways as thc
sustainability agenda requires.
Transition management emerged focusing on the
problems of ehanging socio-technical regimes by eonnecling the older foeus on
technological trajeclories supported by shared idcas and practiccs
111
sClcnce and
eng1l1ecnng communilies with thc later eonccms of sociologists of sClence and
tcchnology about the stabilization of tcchnological dcvelopment by Ihe interaction of
scicntists, policy-makcrs, end-users and activists (GeeIs and Schot, 2007).
Transitions are cxplained in this theory as oeeurrmg Ihrough an alignmcnt of
developments between three levcls: socio-teehnical landseapes, soeio-Iechnical regimes
and niche innovations as illustratcd in Figurc I.
Soci ~tc hnical
landscapes are macro-
level arrangements that provide the exogenolls poliey eontext concerning social rliles and
norms. At the landscape level change is slow and incrcmental but can still often place
downward pressure on soeio technical regimes. At the regime level cstablishcd
communitics of cxpcns (cngineers, scientisI), along with policy makcrs and interest
groups contribule to the alignment of speeifie goals that tcmpcr tcchnological
development patterns. Niche-innovations must break into an cxisting social technical
regime through process of leaming, performance improvcmenl or suppon from
inOuential actors. While the types oftransition vary based on timing and the nature ofthe
interactions, the theory can be used
10
trace specific trajectory of institutional
devclopmcnt and identify dcstabilizing conditions (Rip and Kcmp, 1998).
IncTi."asing Slnlclumlion
ofaclivilics in loeal pracliccs
SociD-h'chnic:11
landmlilt
If\O!tfnlJu.
f"nlf\l)
,
~
J
SO('iDh'fhnic:lI
p
<.
'"
~ """
'fp"'"
,n'h>"...,,·,
1IIn.l-aJ"
':= ;z.~
1-
l"(".;imr
~.nuil :\
~
Tillll'
Figurc I. From Gccls and SchOl (2007: 401)
This paper relies on aversion of the theory which includes hOlh exogenaus (landscape
level and niehe level) and endogenous change (regulatory and poliey) ehanges.
Transition managemenl reeognizes the cxogcnolls ehanges ereate a window of
opportunity for Illoving away from a partieular trajcctory ofproblcm soh'ing and ercating
a Illorc sustainable soeio-teehnieal regime.
Transition management is thus balh a
govcrnance strategy and a theory of change (Kcmp and Rotmans, 2005). To cxplain
trajeelorics, transition management foeuses on thc ehanging relationships between the
soeio-technical regime and other two levels of the model. landseapc and niehe. Four
possiblc alternatives of change exist. In addition to the null option or reproduclioll of Ihe
cxisling regime, two possible transition trajectories could occur: Irons!ormalion whercin
gradual adjustments in regime actors and institut ions ereate an environment more
conducive to technical innovation complcmcntary to the existing tcchnologies or
replacemenr if actors resist change or landscape pressure bccomcs more disruptive. If
innovations are not sufficiently developcd the result may bc a lengthy pcriod of
experimcntation and an eventual dealignment (md realignment
In
whieh a radically
different configuration of actors, institlltions and ideas emerges.
2 POWER PRODUCTION IN SASKATCHEWAN
An analysis of power production in Saskatchcwan over the past ccntury shows threc
significant switch points:
2.1 Saskalchcwlm Power Rcsourcc Commission
A signifieant switeh point oecliITed in 1929 with the creation of a commission mandated
to acquire and publicly own power generation and integrate it with a Saskatchcwan
transmission system. Landscape changes included the rise of cooperatives and public
ownership in Saskatchewan, thc lack of a federal govcrnment presencc in power
generation and thc continllal devclopmcnt of tcchnology (Whitc, 1976; Rediger, 2004).
Because of its far rcaching transition this period is characterizcd as one of dealignmenr
and realignment.
2.2 Thc Emcrgcncc of Lignite Coal
In the 1970s lignite coal power generation emerged as the dominant power souree
Saskatehewan.
111
One thousand fivc hundred thirty one MWs of lignite eoal power
produetion was added
to Saskatehcwan's generation mix.
Two endogenous
developments contributed: the availability of eapital and the Saskatchcwan clliture for
supporting the government provisions 01' services (Whitc, 1976; Rediger, 2004). Because
a new technology rcplaced the current technology this period is characterized as one of
replacemenl.
2.3 Thc Abandonmcnt of Coal
In 1994 lignite coal ceased to be a feasiblc generation option due to increased
environmental concerns, thc potential for more stringent federal laws and regulations,
increased public consultation and review 01' decisions, coneerns over government deficits
as weB as lack 01' available funds and the dcregulation 01' electricity in North Amcrica.
This third switch point is characterized as one 01' lramformarion in which agentIe
transition to more sllstainable technologies has been embraced (see I-Illrlbert, McNutt,
and Rayncr, 20 I0).
3 FUTURE PATHWAYS
In the future SaskPower is embarking on a continuation 01' its transformation through
embraeement 01' green teehnologies in powcr produetion including wind and the cleaner
alternative to coal, natural gas.
Options 01' clean coal with carbon capture and
scquestration, nuclear, hydro and renewable sources 01' power generation all remain listed
as future options (SaskPower, 2009a, SaskPowcr, 2009b).
External pressure from
landseape level or outsider social groups continues and gradual adjustmcnt and
reorientation 01' the cxisting power production regime OCCllrs. SaskPowcr, as the
dominant regime aetor, continucs to reorient existing developmcnt trajcclories on a
modest changed path 01' emission reductions.
lt is highly unlikely that reproducfion, or the eontinuation of the existing make up of
power generation sources including eoal will eontinuc.
The fedcral govemment
announecd its intention to pass rcgulations to phase out eoal-fired plants that have
reaehed the end of thcir eeonomie life by requiring more stringent standards. These
regulations would eome into effec! in 2015 (Environment Canada, 20 I0).
Othcr
pathways arc possible.
A combination of socio-teehnical landscape development and niehe teehnology
innovation (nuclcar power generation) potcntially open a window of opportunily for a
replacemenl path of power production regime in Saskatehewan.
The adoption of this
technology would nccessitate radieal transformation of the soeio-tcchnical regime itself
with new aClors, a new regulatof)' contcxt, new research and ideas. Old institut ions and
actors would disappear. Issues ofwaste disposal, the resouree eommitmenls necessary to
integrate nuclear into the grid, safety eoncerns, thermal pollution, publie costs, potential
population health impacts anel lack of public confidenec are all obstacles to provineial
nuclear development (I-1arding, 2007). In addition, as nuclear encrgy is a matter within
the jurisdietion of the fcderal govemment, the provincial electricity providcr, SaskPowcr
would have to transform its current network of aceountability and aetors with whieh it
internets.
Reeent overturcs 01' the acceptability and possibility of nuclcar power
generation have been made by SaskPower (Johnstone, 2010). At this time, this path still
cannot be embraced with certainty.
Although the replacemem path, or that of
tcchnological substitution, has been rcjceted by olle analysis of lhe c1ectrieity seetor
(Verbong and Oecls, (2007), this paper's authors argue that for the purposes ofthe scale
of Saskatchewan c!ectricity, in the province of Saskatchewan, the possibilit)' of nuclear
power generation makes this option availablc.
Another possible future path is that of dealignment ami realignment. If innovations are
unavailable to address landscape pressure a Icngthy period of experimcntation may ensue
in which several tcchnologics exist side b)' sirle until one option evelltually becomes
dominant. Perhaps this can be seen \Vith the contillued mutual devclopmcnt of wind and
natural gas. BOlh of these have been proceeding side by side for several )'ears; perhaps
one will cmcrge as dominant, or pcrhaps anothcr technology will. Extrancous pressures
of robust environmental regimes surrounding earbon emissions or sueeess of developing
technology such as clean coal may cause Ihis dealigmnent and realignmenl. Currently
Saskatchewan is hcavily involved in carbon caplllrc and storage technology. SaskPower
is developing a
rul~seac
demonstration project at one of its coal fired plants at a cosl of
1.4 billion (Govcrnmcnt of Canada, nd). A joint project with Montana is bcing explored
through a melllorandulll 01' 1I1lderstanding whieh would involve thc construction 01' a new,
commercial-scale C02 capture reference plant at one of SaskPowcr's coal·fired power
plants with the C02 captured stored in Montana. The referenee plant would test a range
of posl-eombuslion capture technologics (Tolltiwaehwuthikul, 2009).
4 CONCLUSION
This paper has critiqucd the history of power production in Saskatchewan utilizing the
theor)' of transition management. By illustrating major switch points of change in thc
socio-tcchnical regime of power production in Saskatchcwan signilicant drivers and
leadership can bc identilied for pursuing sustainable power production. This same theory
can be utilizcd for devcloping a strategy of future power production decisions by
identifying possiblc altemative pathways and predicting future exogenous ractors and
niche technological innovations. Like a11 models the end result and usefulness is only so
good as the quality ofthe information input.
In Saskalchcwan rcproduclion ofthe cxisting socio-technical regime relying significantly
on lignite coal and its current lechnology is highly unlikely. I-Iowever thc development
of clean coal with carbon eapture and sequestration may enable a signifieant dealignment
and realignment from thc eurrent transfonnative pathway of natural gas and wind. Given
eurrent social faelors, a replaccment path 10 nuclcar teehnology is also a potential.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledgc linancial SUppOr1 for the research on which this paper is based from the Social
Science and Humanities Research Council's Canadian Environmentallssues program, and research
assistance from Shlomo Levi.
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HISPANIA NOVA Revista de Historia …, 2009
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The Ecumenical Review, 2011
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Massenmedien und die Integration ethnischer Minderheiten in Deutschland
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Recent Advances in Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, 2009
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Tetrahedron Letters, 2011
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BMC neuroscience, 2018
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Jurnal Farmasi Komunitas, 2020
Una experiencia de adaptación al EEES de dos asignaturas de programación de ordenadores
proceso de …, 2006
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Reports on Mathematical Physics, 1985