Annual Conference on Postal and Delivery Economics
Antwerp, June 1-4, 2005
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector1
Beat Friedli*, Matthias Finger, Cátia Felisberto, Daniel Krähenbühl*, Urs
Trinkner*
EPFL and Swiss Post*
1.
INTRODUCTION
This paper explores whether it would be commercially interesting for
historical postal operators to redefine the “last postal mile”. Indeed, the way
the last postal mile has been defined and serviced so far has long historical
origins and has hardly been questioned so far. Yet today, discussing the last
mile in the postal sector is driven by three different considerations. First,
mail volumes appear to decline, at least in the traditional letter market,
leading to diminishing scale effects. Secondly, the changing consumer
behavior that emerges from the ability of new information and
communication technologies reduces somewhat the pressure on speedy
delivery and leads to reconsider the definition of the Universal Postal
Service in particular. Thirdly, there is a growing debate about whether or not
access is to be granted to the competitors when it comes to the incumbent’s
distribution network.
All above three issues relate to the last postal mile, and thus to the
question, whether or not some innovation is possible in the incumbent’s
distribution channel and whether this innovation is commercially interesting.
Given the cost-sensitiveness of the last mile, postal operators are quite
logically seeking ways to reduce costs precisely at the distribution end of the
value chain, for example by reducing service levels. This paper looks at
possibilities to give more value to the last mile and perhaps even turn it into
a business in its own right.
This paper thus models, to our knowledge for the first time, a Receiver
Pays Principle in the postal sector and tests it with empirical data. It is
structured as follows: in Section 2, we briefly recall the question of the last
mile in the other network industries so to have a better understanding as to
1
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the opinion of Swiss Post.
Concept Paper
Please do not quote
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 2
whether and how the postal last mile is similar or different. In Section 3, we
then turn to the question of the Universal Postal Service. Indeed, mail
distribution remains a Universal Service obligation, and it is therefore
necessary to explore which leeway an incumbent actually has when
exploring new options for the last postal mile. In a fourth Section, we
examine the question of who pays for delivery. Considering that in the postal
sector the price of delivery has been paid exclusively by the sender, this
topic will be discussed based on academic literature only. In Section 5, we
define the various options a historical postal operator has at its disposal
when it comes to defining and pricing the last mile. In Section 6, we evaluate
the option of a monthly delivery fee that the receivers would have to pay
when choosing traditional delivery in terms of welfare and operator’s profit.
Finally, in Section 7 we present and discuss our results.
This paper is a concept paper at an early stage. Its aim is neither to give
an exhaustive literature review nor to offer a tried and tested model to be put
into practice. Rather, we would like to foster the debate about new models
for the last mile. In particular, we would like to know whether such a model
has been put into practice somewhere and what additional considerations are
needed in order to analyze the issue.
2.
THE PROBLEM OF THE “LAST MILE”
The “last mile” is a typical concept of the network industries, such as
telecommunications, railways, electricity, gas, and others more. As such, the
last mile became an issue mainly because of the liberalization of these
network industries, whereby the owners of the networks have given or have
been forced by regulators to give access to their networks. More precisely,
the concept of the last mile has been used first in the telecommunications
sector, and is now increasingly also debated of the electricity sector. These
two sectors, which have a high share of delivery costs in respect to total
costs and which have a high share of fixed costs in delivery, do exhibit some
structural similarities to the postal sector. In this chapter, we briefly recall
the debates in these two sectors. In a concluding paragraph, we derive
implications for the last mile in the postal sector.
In the telecommunications sector, the issue of the last mile has emerged
relatively late. Indeed, it is only after the liberalization of the
telecommunications equipment first, and of the telecommunications
backbone later that the last mile became seen as a bottleneck and
impediment to the total liberalization. As such, the last mile in the
telecommunications sector defines the physical cable that links the
individual household to the dispatching central owned by the historical
operator. It is generally not deemed economical to duplicate this last mile for
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 3
economic reasons. Therefore, first the European Commission and
subsequently the national regulators have forced the historical operators to
open up their last miles to the competitors. As a consequence, the
competitors now have direct access to the final customers, while simply
renting the last mile at a regulated price. More recently, the debate has
evolved in the telecommunications sector, as technological alternatives to
the last mile of the historical operator are emerging. Such alternatives are the
television cable, the electrical powerline, as well as broadband wireless
access. It is therefore increasingly debated, whether access to the historical
operator’s last mile must be regulated, or whether technological competition
is not sufficient in order to serve the consumers best. In short, technological
progress in the telecommunications sector has actually made the regulatory
debate about the last mile obsolete, and has turned it into a purely
commercial question. Consumers now have different telecommunications
last mile options2.
In the electricity sector, the issue of the last mile is less evolved, yet, at
least in the beginning of the liberalization process, very similar to the debate
in the telecommunications sector. Indeed, with the liberalization of energy
production, the local distributors remain monopolists, in that they own the
connection to the final consumer at the household level. However, if the
consumers chose to purchase their electricity no longer from their local
distributor but from a far distant independent producer, the local distributor
is forced by the regulator to transport this electricity again at a regulated
price. In other words, the last mile is therefore identical to the local
distribution network. However, unlike in the telecommunications’ industry,
no realistic technological alternative is emerging to such distribution and
therefore no technological or infrastructure competition appears possible, at
least at this stage. The only feasible alternative is independent electricity
production at the household level, which is still at its infancy. In short, the
last mile belongs to the incumbent, who practically has no leeway to redefine
it according to its commercial interests. However, there exists a broad
variety of pricing schemes, such as peak load pricing or pricing according to
the production method (e.g., environmentally friendly energy).
2
This also means different pricing schemes which affect consumer behavior. In the
late 1990’s the UK industry regulator claimed that the prices for calling mobile
phones were too high. This triggered additional research. One of the results was that
such relatively high prices stemmed from asymmetric incentives, whereby the
originating party paid for all of the call. It was suggested that if instead the receiver
were to pay for some or all of the call, prices of mobiles would be lower (Doyle and
Smith, 1998). On the other hand, Schwarz-Schilling (2001) reports that the slower
growth of mobile telephony in the US compared to other parts of the world can be
attributed to the RPP principle.
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 4
In the postal sector, the concept of the last mile is used before all by
analogy. Consequently, some economists have equated the postal delivery
network to a physical network. Nevertheless, this is an analogy only, and in
reality, the postal last mile resembles much more the current situation of the
telecommunications sector than the situation of the electricity sector. It is
therefore imaginable that the postal customers, as the telecommunications
customers, are being offered in the future a choice as to what they would like
as a “last mile”, and how much they would be ready to pay for it. Inversely,
the historical postal operators, like the telecommunications operators,
increasingly have the option to define the kind, the quality, and the price of
the last postal mile. For instance, Elsenbast (1996) reports findings from a
survey, where residents could choose between payable house delivery and
free collection at a centralised P.O. Box. He concluded that – not
surprisingly – a majority (62%) of residents preferred house delivery but –
perhaps surprisingly – would, in the average, be willing to pay for it.
3.
THE UNIVERSAL SERVICE DELIVERY OBLIGATION
Nevertheless, so far historical postal operators have not been completely
free to define what they mean by “last postal mile”. As a matter of fact, and
before being a technical and a commercial question, the last mile in the
postal sector has mainly been a political question. We therefore also discuss
how the political authorities have defined the last postal mile so far and to
what extent this definition actually allows for some flexibility.
Historically, each European operator had its own definition and practice
of the last postal mile. A first attempt for harmonization was undertaken by
the European Commission with its Green Book in 1992. Here, the last mile
falls into what is called “Universal Service”. More precisely, the Universal
Service has two dimensions, namely an upstream (collection) and a
downstream (distribution) dimension. We are focusing here only on the
downstream dimension of the Universal Postal Service, the ‘Universal
Delivery Service’. At the EU level, the definition of the Universal Delivery
Service is rather vague. Indeed, the Directive 97/67 states that the postal
operator, which is responsible for the Universal Postal Service, must deliver
postal items “to the home premises”. However, it does not specify a series of
issues, such as the exact point of delivery, nor does it say anything about the
exact time of delivery during the day, nor whether the operator may or may
not charge last mile delivery fees (e.g., subscription fees to the households,
specific door delivery fees).
In other words, the European Commission allows for significant leeway
when it comes to downstream Universal Service obligations. It is therefore
necessary to proceed to a much more systematic analysis of what Universal
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 5
Delivery Service concretely is in the different countries. This analysis shows
that, while there is significant similarity when it comes to delivery frequency
and quality, there remain differences when it comes to the delivery point, i.e.
where the last mile ends. In fact, most of the countries do not specify the
delivery point, thus implicitly assuming that the Directive 97/67 applies,
meaning that delivery has to take place to the home premises. However,
some countries grant exceptions, authorized generally by the regulator or
even by the political authorities. Only Denmark seems to be thinking about
the premises where to deliver.
In conclusion, we can see that the downstream Universal Postal Service
as conceived from a political perspective remains quite vague – i.e.,
“delivery to the home premises” –, yet almost no country seems to be taking
advantage of this vagueness. Switzerland appears to be unique here,
inasmuch as the exceptions to such downstream Universal Service can be
defined by the incumbent (i.e., neither by the political authorities nor by the
regulator) in case delivery is particularly difficult.
4.
WHO PAYS FOR DELIVERY?
Despite of a number of structural similarities, in the postal sector it is the
sender pays principle (SPP)3 that prevails, whereas the receiver pays
principle (RPP) has gained widespread acceptance in other network
industries.
Indeed, if we look at non-postal network industries, such as
telecommunications, we observe that the dominant pricing schemes are quite
different. In those network industries, technological advances and
liberalization typically lead to new services, differentiated quality standards,
and the unbundling of the value chain. In particular, however, we find price
differentiation with two or multi-part tariff schemes. This reflects underlying
demand and cost considerations: Suppliers make use of market segmentation
strategies with customer preferences being better reflected in the variety of
products supplied. Generally, then, the presence of high shared of fixed costs
leads to some sort of fixed access fee and variable usage prices.
A brief, non-exhaustive look into the literature shows that a large number
of variables influences the choice of an optimal pricing model in the
telecommunications industry.4 For instance, there are differences between
3
4
The analogous term in the telecom industry is „calling party principle" CPP.
The existence of a network gives rise to external effects (or network effects). Two
types of externalities are “access externalities” and “call externalities”. Access
externalities are benefits to all members of a network when an additional user
joins the network. Call externalities are the benefits a user receives from an
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 6
situations in which either party can initiate a message exchange and those in
which only one party can do so. Other modeling features are for example,
whether a set number of messages sent and received have the same value for
the respective senders and receivers; or whether the receiver – when
deciding whether to accept or not an incoming message – knows the value of
the message in advance; whether sets of messages sent and received are
independent of each other; whether sending a message is costly or not; or
whether sender and recipient prices are set equal or unequal. Such model
features have important implications on the choice of a welfare optimizing
pricing model. By way of example, if an incoming message triggers an
outgoing message of the same value in reply, then call externalities will be
internalized in the demand of sending messages, if not, then a two-part
pricing scheme might prove welfare optimizing. There are a number of
papers analyziung such models; Hermlin and Katz (2004), for example,
conclude that in the presence of call externalities RPP can increase welfare
and profits5.
Looking at the postal industry, we know of no system where RPP is
currently in widespread use. We have to go back to the pre-Rowland-Hillarea to find RPP as a common means of payment.6 However, the topic has
been taken up again in the recent past. In 1981, Owen and Willig stated that
postal rates constitute a deviation from efficient marginal cost pricing. The
propose to set up a guaranteed basic service delivery and to price additional
delivery services according to demand. Schwarz-Schilling, 2001, discusses
an number of reasons, among them “operational costs, transaction costs and
the relevance of distributional goals” contributing to the fact that RPP “has
never been put into practice on a significant scale so far” (p.18). This
conclusion relies on a set of theoretical considerations, yet the paper does not
model or quantify costs or revenues.
incoming message. In this paper we assume that there are both access and call
externalities for recipients of postal messages.
5
The results are, of course, subject to a number of model assumptions not discussed
here. For further references see eg. Jeon, Laffont and Tirole, 2001, or Kim and
Lim, 2000.
6
See for details on postal reform introducing the sender pays principle e.g. Hill and
Hill, 1880. It is interesting to note that Hill proposed that a small additional charge
be made either in advance or on delivery (underscore by the authors) on the
ground that in some small places the penny charge would not cover the cost of the
delivery. However, he withdrew this suggestion later (Hemmeon, 1912). For a
more recent discussion see e.g., Crew and Kleindorfer (1991).
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 7
To sum up, there are potentially a number of welfare arguments in favor
of recipient pricing, or at least in favor of a combination of the sender pays
principle with recipient pricing. In Section 2, we have seen that the postal
sector can increasingly be compared with the telecommunications sector,
and there is therefore no reason why such RPP or a combination between
SPP and RPP cannot also be applied in the postal sector.
Against this background we summarize three key arguments against the
SPP as it is applied in the postal industry:
•
First, each network transaction implies that the message has a
value for both the sender and the receiver. Efficient pricing requires,
in principle, that prices equal marginal cost. Hence, both the sender
and the receiver should contribute to the cost of a message.
•
Secondly, a two-part tariff scheme brings prices more in line with
costs. The postal network, though not a physical one, entails both
fixed and variable costs. A large part of fixed costs can be associated
with the delivery. Thus, introducing a fixed and a variable price
component would allow for postal rates to come closer to marginal
costs and thus an economically more efficient pricing.
•
Thirdly, yet related to the above arguments, a receiver
contribution would allow for a reduction of the sending tariffs This in
turn would stimulate volumes, which in an industry with decreasing
volumes would positively influence scale economies.
5.
LAST MILE OPTIONS IN POSTAL DELIVERY
In this Section, we show possible last mile options of a historical postal
operator. In doing so, we combine two dimensions, namely the point of
delivery on the one hand and the payer’s principle on the other.
In terms of delivery point, we have seen above that the Postal Framework
Directive 97/67 remains vague, allowing for several different possible
delivery points, such as the doorstep (including in an apartment building),
the house entry, and the road intersection. In addition, one must also include
here the delivery at the P.O. Box, even this is currently not a Universal
Service option. In terms of pricing, and as we have seen above, there are the
two extremes, i.e., the sender pays principle as it is currently the case in the
postal sector, the receiver pays principle, or a combination of the two.
Combining both, we obtain the 12 following options with their
corresponding likelihood:
Table 1: theoretically possible last mile and corresponding pricing
options
PO Box
Road intersection
SPP
X
SPP & RPP
RPP
X
X
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
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XX
XXX
House entry
Doorstep
XX
XXX
Below, we will model the last mile option for a historical postal operator.
However, we will be using a simplified model, whereby we will consider
that the receivers pay a monthly fee for home delivery in case they do not
prefer to collect their mail at the P.O. Box that is provided for free (delivery
into the P.O. Box being paid for by the sender). Also, we will not make any
distinction among the three possible delivery points.
6.
MODEL AND CALIBRATION
Our aim is to evaluate whether a combination of the SPP with the RPP
performs better than the SPP on its own, in terms of total welfare. We
restrict ourselves to the study of the monopoly situation to reduce
complexity.
Our model develops as follows. In the benchmark case, the SPP applies
as it is today, thus the receiver does not pay for delivery at the doorstep.
Starting from this benchmark, we select from table 1 two scenarios. We
introduce the scenario “Delivery Flat Rate (DFR)”, where the receivers have
to pay a yearly flat rate (P) to the postal service, if they want delivery at the
doorstep. I.e. to receive the mail at the doorstep the receiver has to pay P
units of money per year. Nevertheless, the customers also have the option to
receive the mail for free at a P.O. Box (located at the closest post office).
The policy DFR will allow the operator to reduce delivery costs and to have
additional revenues (revenue associated with the flat rate customers have to
pay if they choose to receive at the doorstep). We assume that the operator
redistributes the additional revenues to the senders by decreasing the price
accordingly.
If receivers are not willing to pay the delivery fee and choose P.O. Box
delivery, it incurs an opportunity cost of going to the P.O. Box (OC) to
collect the incoming mail. We assume OC to be a function of household
income w, the search costs s to realize the opportunity income, and of time t,
needed to go from the household’s doorstep to empty the PO Box:
OC ( w, t ) = α (w ⋅ t ) − s ,
β
where α and β expresses the way customers value the opportunity money
and time. Economic theory would state these two parameters to be 1.
However, many factors are not implemented in our opportunity function. For
example, one could argue that the opportunity cost of going to the P.O. Box
depends also on the size of the household, whether at least one member
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 9
passes the post office daily, age or health conditions of the members of the
household, whether the household receives newspapers separately from the
rest of the mail, or number of mail pieces per week.. It would be rather
complex and arbitrary to introduce all these variables in the model. The two
parameters α and β give us some flexibility to get an intuitive OCdistribution that corresponds to surveys made in Germany as found in
Elsenblast (1996).
The decision of the customer will depend on whether his opportunity cost
of going to the P.O. Box is smaller or bigger than the flat rate he has to pay
for delivery at the doorstep. If OC ≥ P , then the customer will prefer to pay
the flat rate and receive the mail at his doorstep. If OC < P , P.O. Box
delivery is chosen.
In order to analyze the welfare effects of the new policy DFR we need to
specify utility functions for senders and receivers, and a profit function for
the postal service. For the sender side we follow De Donder et. al (2001) and
assume a representative sender with quasilinear preferences with respect to
money:
b
U S ( q, m) = aq − q 2 + m ,
2
where q represents the quantity of mail sent and m represents the amount
of money spent on other goods. a, b > 0 give the market size and the slope of
the demand curve, respectively. The customer has a budget constraint
p.q + m ≤ ω , where ω is the initial endowment of the customer. The budget
constraint is satisfied with equality when the customer maximizes utility.
The corresponding demand function of the representative sender is as
follows,
1
q( p ) = (a − p ) .
b
For simplify things we assume that the receivers derive a constant utility
V of being connected to the postal network. Thus, their (quasilinear) utility
in the monopoly case is V. In the DFR case, they are worse of because
delivery is costly now. Thus, to receive mail at the doorstep they need pay
the delivery flat rate P, if choosing P.O. Box their cost is OCi. The receivers’
utility can be written as
U iR = Vi − min( P, OCi )
(1)
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 10
Expression (1) offers an explanation, why so far no postal service chose
DFR. If Vi is smaller than the cost to receive mail, one would expect this
person not to empty the P.O. Box at all. We do not implement this possibility
in our model but assume that people will be motivated to empty their mail
box and no network externalities are lost. This enables us to set Vi to zero for
all households without changing the equilibrium outcome.
The postal services costs are composed by a variable and a fixed part,
which translates the existence of economies of scale in the market. The profit
function of the firm can be written as
)
π ( pˆ , P) = ( p − c)q + P ⋅ n( P) − Fu − [Fd − AC ( P)] ,
where c denotes the variable costs and n(P) is the number of customers
that chose delivery at the doorstep. Fu and Fd are the upstream and
downstream fixed costs. AC(P) is the avoided costs as a function of the flat
rate P, when households do not want home delivery anymore because P is
too high. In the benchmark case, P is zero and AC(P) = 0. If the flat rate
were set to plus infinity in the DFR case, nobody would choose doorstep
delivery and AC(P) = Fd. We assume that the postal services redistributes
the earnings associated with the delivery pricing to the senders by lowering
P ⋅n ( P )
the stamp price from p to p̂ according to the rule pˆ = p − q0 , where q0 is
the mail volume of the previous period. The profit function implies that the
only cost for the postal service of a P.O. Box is to sort and insert the mail
into the boxes. These costs are included in c and occur also for doorstep
delivery. Thus, we assume that the postal service can provide additional P.O.
Boxes for free and the billing costs for the monthly delivery are negligeable.
To compute overall welfare in the economy we just have to sum
consumer net utility and operator’s profit. For DFR, we can find the
consumers’ net utility by subtracting the revenues associated with the flat
rate and the total disutility of going to the PO Box from the sender surplus.
With this framework, we will have a positive mail volume impact for any
negative value of price elasticity. This is because we assume that the postal
service redistributes the additional revenues from delivery fees and avoided
costs for P.O. Box switchers to the senders by lowering the stamp price p
accordingly. With a negative price elasticity this leads to an increase in mail
volume. Whether this translates into a higher overall welfare depends on the
avoided cost function and the switching behavior of the consumers
determined by the distribution of OC in the population.
In order to assess the DFR’s impact on welfare, we calibrate the model
using Swiss data. Swiss Post stated in its annual report that they delivered
approximately 2.8 billion pieces of addressed mail in 2004. Recent data of
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 11
Swiss Post suggest that the overall price elasticity is approximately -0.3.
Parameters a and b can directly be computed using prices, quantities and
price elasticities of 2004. The expression for the price elasticity is as follows
ε =−
1 p
.
bq
On the production side, we assume the same calibration as set out Dietl et
al. (2005). A crucial point is the avoided cost function. The function reflects
how delivery costs depend on the fraction of consumers choosing P.O. Box
instead of mailbox. We assume a function of the following kind:
Graph 1: Avoided Cost Function
100%
80%
Total avoided costs
Avoided access costs
60%
Avoided route time
40%
20%
0%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Fraction of receivers still prefering mailbox delivery
Total avoided costs decompose into two different parts. If a consumer
switches to P.O. Box delivery, first the time is saved to reach his mailbox
from the route the mail carrier passes every day. This component is a linear
function. A second component is the reduced route time. Route time reduces
when sufficiently persons switch to the P.O. Box, so that a mail carrier does
not have to serve a whole street for example. We assume here an exponential
curve.
In order to compute the opportunity cost distribution we have generated a
random sample of 10’000 observations for each of the variables w and t. We
assumed the households’ income and distance from the P.O. Box to be
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 12
independent and to follow the lognormal distribution with the following
means and standard deviations7:
Table 2: Mean and standard deviation of w and t
w (CHF)
t (minutes)
Mean
8.933
8,78
Std deviation
3.507
2,48
Moreover, we assumed s = 150 CHF, α = 1 and β to be 0,7. In Graph 2
we show the resulting demand function for doorstep delivery.
Graph 2: Demand for doorstep delivery
500
Flat rate (CHF/year)
400
300
Demand f or doorstep delivery
200
100
0
0%
7.
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
We are now going to present and discuss the main conclusions of our
model. We also perform some sensitivity analysis in order to test the
robustness of the results.
It is straightforward to analyze the benchmark situation, i.e. the first stage
before the introduction of the flat rate on doorstep delivery. The uniform
price charged by Swiss Post was on average 0.74 CHF. Together with the
7
Data supplied by the “Office Fédéral de la Statistique” and by Swiss Post.
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 13
cost structure originated a profit of 530 millions CHF (before covering the
deficit in the postal outlets). The consumer’s surplus is in this case
approximately 3.4 billions CHF. Total welfare is approximately 3.6 billions
CHF.
When we introduce the new policy of delivery with a delivery flat rate of
100 CHF/year the average price drops be 10 cents to 0,64 CHF because of
the postal services redistribution of the flat rate to the senders. The lower
price increases mail volumes, which cause an increase in the operator’s
profit of about 50 Mio CHF. The consumer’s welfare also increases by 11%.
The increase in total welfare is of approximately 12%. Table 3 summarizes
the results.
Table 3: Results for different flat rates
Average price (CHF)
Quantity (Mio)
Consumers’ surplus (mio
CHF)
Firm’s profit (mio CHF)
Total welfare (mio CHF)
Welfare change (in %)
Before
flat rate
0,74
2782
3423
40
0,69
2840
After flat rate (CHF)
70
100
130
0,66
0,64
0,62
2871
2895
2915
160
0,61
2934
196
3619
3627
223
3849
0,06
3729
236
3965
0,10
3942
259
4201
0,16
3804
245
4049
0,12
3868
253
4121
0,14
In the graph below, we can observe how the consumers’ welfare and the
firm’s profit evolve for different values of the flat rate.
Graph 3: Impact of the flat rate on welfare and profit
Consumer Surplus
Profit Postal Service
300
4400
M io CHF
4200
280
4000
260
3800
240
3600
220
3400
200
3200
Flat rate
3000
0
100
200
300
400
180
500
Exploring the “last mile” in the postal sector
page 14
Assuming a flat rate of 100 Swiss Franc per year, we can see that
irrespectively of α we will observe an increase in the total welfare with the
introduction of the flat rate (Table 4). All the remaining results are robust to
changes in α .
Table 4: Sensitivity analysis for α
Flat rate = 100 CHF/year
Before
flat rate
Demand for doorstep delivery
(%)
Average price (CHF)
Quantity (Mio)
Consumers’ surplus (mio CHF)
Firm’s profit (mio CHF)
Total welfare (mio CHF)
Welfare change (in %)
0,74
2782
3423
530
3619
α
0.8
0.9
28%
0,63
2913
3969
253
4222
0,17
41%
0,64
2899
3853
247
4100
0,13
1
53%
0,64
2895
3804
245
4049
0,12
1.1
1.2
65%
0,64
2896
3789
245
4034
0,11
74%
0,64
2899
3788
245
4033
0,11
REFERENCES
Crew, M. & P. Kleindorfer (1991). Rowland Hill’s contribution as an economist. In:
idem. (eds.). Competition and Innovation in Postal Services. Boston.
De Donder, Philippe, Helmuth Cremer, Jean-Pierre Florens, André Grimaud and
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