Tariff policy and equilibrium growth in the world economy

RGDPG = real GDP per capita five year growth rate (in 1985 international prices). LIND = percentage of the labor force that is employed in the industrial sector. DEF = ratio of total government expenditures on defense to GDP. INV = public and private investment share of GDP (in 1985 international prices). POPG = growth rate of population. HDI = Human Development Index. OPEN = one of the three measurements of openness: DOI = reconstructed Dollar Openness Index (in 1985 international prices). TRADE = export plus imports as a percentage of GDP. BMP = black market premium [(Black market rate/official rate)-1]

Scientific Journal of Administrative Development, 2003

Empirical studies pertaining to the impact of smuggling on the black market premium (BMP) are very rare in the literature. This paper adds to the literature on the relation between smuggling and the black market premium in the foreign exchange market by pooling data from 70 countries over the period 1956-98 in an unbalanced panel framework. Using tariff as a proxy for smuggling into a country and controlling for other macroeconomic variables, our results strongly support the notion that smuggling leads to high BMP in the foreign exchange market supporting the theoretical literature.

Journal of Policy Modeling, 1995

International Economic Journal, 1999

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Starting from the immediate post-independence era, Nigeria pursued an overvalued foreign exchange rate policy. As the central bank is a net seller of foreign exchange to the private sector, the policy was aimed at subsidizing and protecting the populace and local firms. This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate policy on real customs revenue in Nigeria using error correction methodology. In addition, the paper estimates the implicit central bank losses associated with the valuation of the net foreign exchange sold to the private sector at the overvalued official exchange rate. The paper also discusses the politics of the exchange rate policy in Nigeria. Findings indicate that Nigeria's exchange rate policy had serious fiscal and commercial policy implications by squeezing the tax base in foreign trade transactions and expanding opportunities for large scale rent seeking activities. Furthermore, the premium negatively affects customs and excise duties collected. In the long run, a 10% reduction in parallel premium engenders 6% increase in real customs revenue. In addition, estimates show that exchange rate overvaluation subsidy has been quite substantial overtime, rising from 7.4% of GDP in 1979 to 25.5% of GDP in 1986. The results underscore the need to sustain the present regime of low parallel market exchange premium in Nigeria through compatible economic policies. An enduring lesson is the need to entrust economic management to technocrats who are free of political influences, and the necessity of agencies of restraint such as an independent central bank.

Empirical Economics, 1991

We document the main features of a database that has been constructed for use in an applied general equilibrium model. The model is designed to evaluate policies of the European Community (EC), including membership. The database includes each of the major members of the EC in the 1970's: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Ireland. It also includes three further trading regions: the United States, Japan and a residual Rest of World. Four aspects of our database are documented. The first is the collection and use of "raw data" from a number of sources for 1975. The second aspect is the generation of a multi-year database, with 1975 serving as a "reference year" for temporal updates to more recent years. The third aspect is the application of the database to the calibration of a "generic" generalequilibrium trade model. The final aspect is the use of the database to study the historical accession of the United Kingdom to the EC.

New Dimensions in Regional Integration, 1993

Regional integration is on the rise againbut from different starting points and with differernt objectives than in the past. Policy ReaomdWodcing Pap dianatzthefndingsofwokinp awgress cncd .getheexchdngeofidesmongB staffaa ai oteheirmacdindevopncniLuespaps,&tibutewdbytc RusrchAdvis yStaff.cuaythenaresoftheauthorflact odytbavrvisndsuldbeLwddctaccordin0y.lefinduiginti, ndc<ecusionsarethcauthotown.lcyshould notb tc atlted tothe Wozd Bank. its Board of Dimcmta, its management, otay of itsm membcrenties.

Journal of Policy Modeling, 1993

... GW (1984) General Equilibrium Ana!ys s of Regional Fiscal Incidence. ... EE (1991) TF&#x27; r Political Economv of Protectionisnt in Indonesia: A Computable General Equilibrium Anahysis. ... J. (1982) An Evaluation of the Tokyo Round Trade Agreement Using General Equilibrium ...

1986

The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the World Bank or to its affiliated organizationso The findings, interpretations~ and conclusions are the results of research supported by the Bank; they do not necessarily represent official policy of the Banko The designations employed 9 the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its affiliates concerning the legal status of any country~ territory~ city, area, or of its authorities~ or concerning the del!mitations of its boundaries~ or national affiliationa