POPULATION PROJECTION OF KHORDHA DISTRICT, ODISHA 2021-51

Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population scenario, conditioned by making certain assumptions, using data relating to the past available at that a point of time. Assumptions used and their probability of adhering in the future, forms a critical input in this mathematical effort. Population forecasting is the useful tool for infrastructure service design and planning. It helps in visualising the needs for future planning to the Urban Local Bodies and Authorities. For finding the future infrastructure demands, an essential task is to perform population projection exercise. Available methods and models are based on mathematical or birth, death and migration correlation base. Applying some of the methods for Surat, it was found that projected population using seven different methods for years 2021, 2031 and 2041. Alarming difference indicate an acute need to identify governing parameters (density, industrial growth and activates, built up area, health and education sector, infrastructure government policy and so on) that affect the increase or decrease in the projected population. Present work attempts to devise a statistical method for population projection of urban area. Such a model being valid for one city (Surat) may not be applicable to another city with same weightage of variables which leaves a scope to change these values as per the situations observed in different cities. After identifying the natural growth and migration parameter and identification of parameters which are directly affecting the migration is important. Total main worker as per category, non-worker, 0-6 year age population, density, decadal population growth those all are set in one equation as per the correlation and validation for 2011 and then apply for future projection. The equation is passing out the validation criteria and its variation is less than 1%. This equation is more reliable and it can apply for population projection. Use of that equation it includes all growth parameter and creates land fact picture and it is derived less difference than any other method.

Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population scenario, conditioned by making certain assumptions, using data relating to the past as available at that point of time. Assumptions used and their probability of adhering in future, forms a critical input in this mathematical effort. Population forecasting is the useful tool for infrastructure service design and planning without which urbanization cannot be turned into a positive opportunity to ascertain improvement in economic conditions at optimized cost of large investments. It helps in visualizing the needs for future planning to the Urban Local Bodies and Authorities. For finding the future infrastructure demands, an essential task is to perform population projection exercise. Available methods and models are based on mathematical or birth, death and migration correlation base. Present paper discusses the application of five methods for Surat differently, it was observed that projected population for years 2021, 2031 and 2041 was as lowest as 56.94, 65.84 and 74.74 lacs (using Arithmetical Increase Method) and as highest as 88.13, 168.77 and 339.76 lacs (Geometrical General Method) respectively. The approach was made different in a way that various methods were applied to each of the 125 wards/villages (including the city of Surat) individuallyuniformly with mathematical methods and with consideration of certain restrictions of future development in statistical method. The difference observed show no coherence in the results hence a need has been identified to develop an approach to establish relationships among diverse parameters that may lead to certain assured results with minimum of deviations.

Indian Journal of Spatial Science, Spring Issue, 12(1), 2021

North 24-Parganas is the 2nd-most populous district in the 2nd-largest populated nation of the world. It bears unique dualities as well as diversities in different aspects. One of the significant challenges it faces is that it has to cater to the needs of about 11% of the total population of West Bengal within about 4.6% of the state's total area. High population density and a high rate of increase in population are indeed a problem for the district. In 2021, the problem may outbreak in all situations. Therefore, the pattern of trends in growth and spatial distribution needs analysis in terms of centrality. For this, like progressive growth rates, concentration index and mean centers of population in different periods have been used. It is found that the population may grow to about 20 million by 2069. Between 1951 and 2011, the population of the district grew more than three times and in 2021, it would be about 11,282,156. The district shows four distinct stages of population growth based on the average annual growth rate of population, i.e., pre-1931, 1931-1961, 1961-2001, and post-2001. During 1971-81, the rural growth rate was negative whereas, the urban growth rate was more than 90%. The weighted mean centers of population shifted significantly within the Habra-I block. The analysis will be more significant for the upcoming periods to chalk out the development and planning for the district.

In a developing nation like India, the characteristics of the urbanisation are pronounced in migration patterns. By analysing the ever growing demand of the population in terms of its number and nature it is seen an ever increase in urban growth is concentrated in the cities. Thus a primate city develops, which leads to too much concentration and overcrowding in a small place. An overview of the Khordha District in Odisha gives us the results.

The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth. Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years , to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08% while as the population has increased by 214.75%. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km 2 in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city. The most common conversions were also evaluated. * Corresponding author. This is useful to know for communication with the appropriate person in cases with more than one author.

Indian Journal of Spatial Science Spring Issue: 2024:15(1) pp.70 - 75 , 2023

The human population is the focal point of geographical studies. The socio-economic development of any country is determined by its population. Human beings play a dual role in terms of resources. On one hand, humans are considered resources themselves due to their intellectual power and numerical strength, while on the other hand, they also serve as producers and consumers of natural resources. Hence, the population size, its density, and qualitative features are the core aspects of population geography. This paper aims to examine the spatial pattern of population distribution and density in Basti District, India. Additionally, it seeks to identify the trend and pattern of population growth in Basti district since the beginning of the 20th century (1901-2011). The study is based on secondary data, collected from the National Population Census of India, the District Statistical book, Primary Census Abstract. To fulfill aforesaid objectives, the percentage of population share, population density, and population concentration has been calculated at the block level. The study reveals that population concentration exists in specific pockets within the study areas primarily around block headquarters. The central part of the district is more populated than the western and northern parts of the district.

International Journal of Innovative Knowledge Concept, 2019

Kolkata is a metro city located at the eastern side of India which was previously under the British ruler till 1912. But the noticeable fact is that though it is a colonial city but it has no proper master plan like the other major cities of India. So Kolkata city has grown in a haphazard way besides of the river Hooghly. Kolkata city is now growing towards south direction as it can be seen from the analysis of the satellite images. Maheshtala Municipality plays a leading role in this southward growth of city. This paper attempts to scrutinize the nature of demographic change of Maheshtala Municipality from 2001-2011 present land use pattern of this area with its changing land price. To visualize and analyze the land use pattern of this municipality Erdas Imagine 14 software has been used. To scrutinize the evaluation of land price of 2000, 2005 and 2015 Price Index Techniques (PIT) have been used. This study reveals that accessibility from the other areas; lots of open space and relatively low price of land are the major causes behind the rapid growth and development of this municipality.

The growth of population, especially in the developing countries shows rapid increasing trend due to higher rate of fertility and declining trend of mortality rate. It reaches to an explosive situation if the province or the region experiences high influx of population from the outside. Such a trend of growth is common phenomenon in the countries like India, wherein rural to urban migration leads mushrooming of pocket based population growth. This nucleated effect of population growth later on associated with spill over effect intends to spread of suburbs around the main city. On the other hand, higher rate of fertility in rural areas exerts a pressure on the land and push the population towards urban centre. Hence, this causal relationship between population and land capacity boosting the growth trend and diffuse growth process over the space, however growth rate turns to fall gradually due to effect of space saturation. This growth rate along with its dynamic behaviour exhibits a strong relationship among the population density, land capacity and space characteristics. In India, after achieving Independence population increased rapidly, though growth rate shows a declining trend, especially for those region wherein city population proceeds towards saturation level. This alienation of population growth and growth rate unfolds dynamic behaviour of growth process in terms of space and time. Our present investigation aims to capture this growth dynamics of Howrah district which is densest populated district of most dense populated province (West Bengal) in India.

This article gives an overview of India's population projection exercises so far, in which I was also personally involved as Chairman of the expert committee which prepared the projections for the period 1996-2016 in August 1996. This gives a summary of the various projection exercises over the decades and touches upon the methods used. As this article is meant for the general reader, I have not elaborated on the mathematical models adopted for the projections. A reference is also made for comparison as to how the US census deals with the subject. US census defines projections and estimates separately where projections are for the future and estimates are for the years since the last census till the present which are called vintage years. Finally a glimpse is provided on how the actual population

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