OSINT Final Project
Trista L Carrvisibility
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The Islamic State (also known as IS, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-ISIS—the Islamic State of al-Sham-ISIS, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-ISIS) has been fighting their way through Iraq and Syria, and more recently Libya steadily and quickly gaining ground. The United States government has been actively engaged against this ideological paramilitary group since August of 2014 in Iraq and September of 2014 in Syria. However, the group itself is no longer the biggest issue. It’s global reach and influence threatens every non-Muslim or non-radical, and there seems to be allegiance or support in every corner of the globe somewhere for this monstrosity.
Related papers
"A State, an Insurgency, and a Revolution: Understanding and Defeating the Three Faces of ISIS," in The Future of ISIS: Regional and International Implications, Sumit Ganguly and Feisal A.R. al-Istrabadi (eds.) (Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution Press, 2018)
The Future of ISIS: Regional and International Implications, 2018
The U.S. has a number of core interests in the Middle East, including preventing the rise of a regional hegemon, nuclear proliferation, and significant terrorist attacks on the homeland, as well as ensuring access to oil and the security of regional allies. These interests provide a backdrop for the most prominent regional threat to emerge in recent years: ISIS. The good news is that ISIS poses little threat to the most crucial U.S. regional interests, such as preventing the rise of a regional hegemon and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The bad news is that ISIL still presents a significant threat to a number of other U.S. interests, such as the stability of regional allies and the prevention of terrorist attacks. Furthermore, the group’s unique structure makes it more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to defeat it, as ISIS is not simply a terrorist group. Rather, it is at once a state that has controlled and governed territory the size of Indiana, a transnational insurgency that seeks to spread chaos and overthrow numerous regimes across the region, and a revolutionary movement that works to reshape societies and spread an extreme ideology and apocalyptic vision. This chapter analyzes the threat ISIS poses to U.S. interests, as well as how to understand and defeat the group's three faces of state, insurgency, and revolutionary movement.
OSINT Project Prospectus - The Islamic State
The Islamic State is quickly becoming one of the most organized, while still decentralized, and violent terrorist organizations with high ambitions and capability in the Middle East. In an official statement for the record to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), the Director of National Intelligence has proclaimed the Islamic State to be the foremost terrorist threat to the United States. Claiming masses of land under their control through force and brutal violence, and still seizing more, to establish their Caliphate of governorship, the Islamic State appeals to even non-radicals in their proclamation of a self-appointed Caliph to govern Muslims as a whole. This would be a separate government of Muslims that exceeds nationals and regional boundaries of state law led by a single man, the Caliph, who leads this terrorist organization. In such governorship of territories already under Caliphate control, the Islamic State has established basic necessities such as electricity, running water, school, hospitals and other critical services to the people of their controlled lands in at least some areas. Such areas receiving these services can only be assumed to be grateful for these programs. It is unknown if these programs existed before the Caliphate took control and were ceased in the interim until the Caliphate was well established, but the Caliphate good-naturedness in restoring any previous services, or even improving them, would be duly noted by the people of the land and place the Caliph in less distasteful regards, perhaps even in pleasant regards for some. Such tactics are a major step up from the forced influence of using major infrastructure such as water supply to force submission and acquiescence of just two years ago as the Islamic State (then mostly referred to as ISIS) was on a path of war to obtain as much land as quickly as possible to establish the Caliphate, which by custom is recognized and strengthened as well as respected based on the size of his territorial land control (the Caliphate). It appeared ISIS at the time had a higher goal of a central territory of control in the Middle East, vast yes, but location was the key, in which Muslims from all over could come to join their Caliphate and their cause—their war. Since 2004, numerous terrorist cells and organizations have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State across the globe, providing IS the opportunity to proclaim more “provinces” of their Caliphate, even to the extent of encroaching on al-Qaeda and Taliban territories.
AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO COMBAT ISIS: LEGAL, POLITICAL, AND SOCIO–ECONOMIC
Starting as a branch of Al Qaeda and transforming to a new phase of armed group, imposing a territory control and governance as a state and then proclaiming itself as a Caliphate in the prophetic Islamic Method, ISIS has clearly challenged the international law from different approaches. The aim of this article is to address the problem imposed by ISIS and combat it from an interdisciplinary approach, therefore it examines the international legal obligations of ISIS as well the legality of countermeasures by states against it in accordance with the United Nations charter (Use of force and Self-Defense), International Humanitarian law , International Human Rights law. On the other hand legal or military means are not the only solution, but rather complementary political, economic and sociological measures will be fruitful with the long struggle to combat ISIS ideology. ISIS is a hybrid non-state armed group and cannot be targeted except by hybrid means.
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST: ISIS AS A CASE STUDY
The Islamic State (IS), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) with their brutal Sunni Muslim terror organization [42] swept into the global media spotlight [23] and to prominence in 2012-2014 during and after Syria's civil war with their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi [42]. The international community has watched in shock as the group has terrorized en masse those that do not comply with its violent and extremist worldview. ISIS poses a direct threat to international safety and security, as they are the largest in land control and fighting size, and wealthiest terrorist organization in history. ISIS now controls more territory and resources than any terrorist organization that has ever existed [42]. A comparative approach allows us to map where IS has developed new techniques, as well as where it has mimicked or built off of previous jihadist tactics [22]. This paper analyzes International terrorism in the Middle East with critical view on ISIS as a case study and proposed coherent political solution.
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST: ISIS AS A CASE STUDY BY
The Islamic State (IS), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) with their brutal Sunni Muslim terror organization [42] swept into the global media spotlight [23] and to prominence in 2012-2014 during and after Syria's civil war with their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi [42]
A Critical Overview of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ISIS
African Journal of Law, Political Research and Administration, 2024
The origins of ISIS were traced to the Arab Spring that created instability in the Middle East. This instability was exacerbated by the American-led coalition's invasion of Iraq in 2003, prompted by the 9/11 attacks. The paper aims to have an overview of the origin and goals of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the strategies employed by the U.S. and Allied Forces to make ISIS fall. A systematic literature review approach was adopted to review the selected literature. ISIS was formed out of various militant groups in the country whose goal is to establish an Islamic caliphate governed by strict Sharia law. The goal of ISIS was to establish an Islamic caliphate in Iraq, Syria, and beyond with a caliph as the leader of the territories, thereby eradicating state borders and governments they deemed to be illegitimate. This caliphate is to be governed by strict Sharia law. This analysis delves into the strategies used by the US-led coalition to reclaim territories from ISIS. These strategies include military strategies, economic strategies, political strategies, and social strategies. It was, therefore, recommended that to combat ISIS's ideology effectively, the United States may need to collaborate more with Muslim clerics all over the world to promote interpretations of the Quran that counter radicalization in Islam.
New Strategies in Dealing with ISIS, Al Qaeda and Other Extremists
This paper was written in response to Graeme Wood's article about ISIS in the March 2015 issue of the Atlantic.
Assessing the ISIS threat one Year Later
2015
A year ago the world witnessed the swift advances of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria. Though the emergence of the group was somewhat expected for those who have been following the regional developments of the past years it caught most of the world by surprise. At the same time, its brutal tactics, military victories, resilience, evolution and extreme ideology have led many to characterize it as the greatest regional and international security threat at the moment or the most dangerous Islamist threat contemporary history has seen.
The Emerging Threat of ISIS
In Focus, 2014
The sudden emergence of Islamic State (previously Islamic State of Iraq and al Shaam) has changed the politics that governs the interaction among terrorist groups. Although fighting for the same goals as al Qaeda, there are some differences between the two, and this article evaluates these differences.
The Rise of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ( ISIS )
2016
Europe and Hungary, currently faces multiple national threats in an environment of growing disorder. ISIS, the “State of Terror”, is executing a sophisticated strategy that involves simultaneous efforts and attacks in Iraq and Syria, the Middle East and North Africa, and the wider world. Civil wars are intensifying in Ukraine, Yemen, and Libya, causing massive migration waves. The recent terrorist attack in Paris has shown that ISIS supported homegrown terrorism is an increasing threat. This article discusses the development and internal issues of the most dangerous terrorist organization. Although it was not a purpose to analyze the international consequences of the recent ISIS attack in Paris, the authors express their hope that ISIS might make a strategic mistake. On 13 November, 2015 can be a turning point in the fight against the Islamic State.
OSINT Final Project
Trista Lynn Carr
8/27/2016
Dr Valerie E Davis
INTL422 – Open Source Intelligence
Intelligence Studies with a Concentration in Counterintelligence
Bachelor’s Program in Security and Global Studies
American Military University
The Problem and Background
The Islamic State (also known as IS, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-ISIS—the Islamic State of al-Sham-ISIS, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-ISIS) has been fighting their way through Iraq and Syria, and more recently Libya steadily and quickly gaining ground.
NY Times “State of the War Against ISIS: Where ISIS is gaining ground in Libya” The United States government has been actively engaged against this ideological paramilitary group since August of 2014 in Iraq and September of 2014 in Syria.
BBC News “Battle for Iraq and Syria in Maps” However, the group itself is no longer the biggest issue. It’s global reach and influence threatens every non-Muslim or non-radical, and there seems to be allegiance or support in every corner of the globe somewhere for this monstrosity.
The ISIS ideology is of a Muslim Caliphate, which is a system of governance with a Caliph as a leader.
Time “Why ISIS is a lot more dangerous than it was a month ago” The importance of a Caliph comes from the term’s origins. Upon Prophet Muhammad’s death, a Caliph was created as “the leader of the faithful,” and the Caliphate was the Muslim way of life up to about a hundred years ago.
Ibid. Under a Caliphate, control of lots of land was a prerequisite for Caliphs and Caliphates to not only prosper but as a symbol of power and legitimacy.
Ibid. The more territory a Caliph controlled in his Caliphate, the more powerful and influential he was because through the control of massive territory, his governance is legitimized and his leadership is legitimized thus there will be less dissidence when the Caliph gives an order.
This is particularly of concern where Muslims are not supporters of ISIS but are supporters of the ideal of a Caliphate where the Caliph is a terrorist. According to the Time article, “Why ISIS is more dangerous than it was a month ago,” even though very few Muslims support ISIS, “a great many express either nostalgia or banked hope for the notion of a caliphate.”
Ibid. If ISIS gains enough territory throughout the Muslim lands of the Middle East to gain legitimacy, ISIS will control the people and the interests of those territories up to and including the governments themselves. Such legitimacy and control would mean that every international effort the Iraqi, Syrian, or Libyan governments are involved in, would henceforth have ISIS influence. This could cause devastating results through the use of ISIS support for or against any international treaties, sanctions, and laws as ISIS would most likely act and vote in their own best interests, which are anti-Westernization. ISIS has proven they are not a peaceful governance so there is real likelihood that the Caliphate would align itself with such nations and governments that are known for potential violent tendencies as well as aligning itself with those nations and governments that are anti-Westernization or anti-US. The joining of legitimate, violent forces that are anti-US or anti-Westernization could result in attacks against the United States or even a major war.
To date, the Islamic State has over 40 “pledged” organizations that have been formally recognized as Caliphate provinces all over the world, with each organization pledging to act and attack in the IS manner against all non-believers and any that have strayed from Islam law both with organizational assistance and as “lone wolves.”
Massimo Calabresi, "TIME Person of the Year 2015 Runner-Up: Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi", Time Magazine, 2015.
Threat History
The Islamic State has been an ongoing concern since its formal inception as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in 2013 after joining the Syrian Civil War in 2011.
Cassman. “The Islamic State.” Stanford. The Islamic State gained notoriety through “its public beheadings of Western captives and its large contingent of foreign fighters.”
Cassman. “The Islamic State.” Stanford. The DNI justifies IS as the “preeminent terrorist threat” to the US “because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq, its branches and emerging branches in other countries, and its increasing ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets around the world.”
Clapper, DNI, Worldwide Threat Assessment,” 2016.Page 4; "Islamic State Group: Crisis in Seven Charts", BBC News. The IS threat is further exacerbated using such tactics as “jihadist recruiting, attract[ing] others to travel to Iraq and Syria, draw[ing] individuals and groups to declare allegiance to ISIL, and justif[ying] attacks across the globe.”
Clapper, DNI, Worldwide Threat Assessment,” 2016.Page 4; "Islamic State Group: Crisis in Seven Charts", BBC News. As of June 25, 2015, the IS had officially proclaimed provinces in nine different nations throughout the Middle East and Africa through pledges by other organizations.
"Islamic State Moves in on Al-Qaeda Turf", BBC News | World. Information as of June 25, 2015. The IS’ ability to inspire “Lone Wolf” attacks on a global scale only increases this threat.
Potential Targets
The Islamic State and its provinces’ pledged allegiance can be expected to continue bombing adversarial locations of strategic advantage and opportunity as well as the continued capture of critical territories and infrastructures. Currently, the most prominent target is IS’ capture of Tabqa Dam in which many of its members are “hiding” and captured individuals are also being kept.
Laurie Hannah, "ISIS Chiefs Hiding In Dam That Cannot Be Bombed", NY Daily News, last modified 2016, accessed August 24, 2016, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/chiefs-hiding-dam-bombed-article-1.2505728; "Islamic State Group: Crisis In Seven Charts", BBC News, last modified 2016, accessed August 22, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034; Brian Nitz, "ISIS Uses Tabqa Dam In Syria As Weapon Of War", Greenprophet.Com, last modified 2016, accessed August 24, 2016, http://www.greenprophet.com/2016/05/isis-uses-tabqa-dam-in-syria-as-weapon-of-war/; Steve White, "ISIS Chiefs Are Hiding In An Enormous Dam Because Allies Won't Bomb There", Mirror, last modified 2016, accessed August 24, 2016, http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/isis-chiefs-hiding-enormous-dam-7219847. This is apparently being used to IS’ advantage because it can’t be bombed by US and allied airstrikes due to the massive damage it would cause from flooding and threats of WMDs placed in the dam by IS.
Ibid.
The Islamic State has been an ongoing concern since its formal inception as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in 2013 after joining the Syrian Civil War in 2011.
Cassman. “The Islamic State.” Stanford. The Islamic State gained notoriety through “its public beheadings of Western captives and its large contingent of foreign fighters.”
Cassman. “The Islamic State.” Stanford. The DNI justifies IS as the “preeminent terrorist threat” to the US “because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq, its branches and emerging branches in other countries, and its increasing ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets around the world.”
Clapper, DNI, Worldwide Threat Assessment,” 2016.Page 4; "Islamic State Group: Crisis in Seven Charts", BBC News. The IS threat is further exacerbated using such tactics as “jihadist recruiting, attract[ing] others to travel to Iraq and Syria, draw[ing] individuals and groups to declare allegiance to ISIL, and justif[ying] attacks across the globe.”
Clapper, DNI, Worldwide Threat Assessment,” 2016.Page 4; "Islamic State Group: Crisis in Seven Charts", BBC News. As of June 25, 2015, the IS had officially proclaimed provinces in nine different nations throughout the Middle East and Africa through pledges by other organizations.
"Islamic State Moves in On Al-Qaeda Turf", BBC News | World. Information as of June 25, 2015. The IS’ ability to inspire “Lone Wolf” attacks on a global scale only increases this threat.
Bibliography
BBC News. 2015. 'Battle for Iraq and Syria in Maps - BBC News'. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034.
Calabresi, Massimo. "TIME Person of the Year 2015 Runner-Up: Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi". Time Magazine. Last modified 2015. Accessed August 27, 2016. http://time.com/time-person-of-the-year-2015-runner-up-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi/.
Cassman, Daniel. 2015. 'The Islamic State | Mapping Militant Organizations'. Stanford University. http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/1.
Clapper, DNI, James R. Worldwide Threat Assessment of The US Intelligence Community - SSCI - February 09, 2016. Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), 2016.
Cunningham, Daniel, Sean F Everton, and Robert Schroeder. Social Media and the ISIS Narrative. Monterey, CA: Department of Defense Analysis - Naval Postgraduate School, 2015. Accessed August 24, 2016. https://my.nps.edu/documents/104382430/104582412/Social+Media+and+the+ISIS+Narrative+%28Everton+et+al%29.pdf/f1a2082d-993e-460b-9b7e-7808dc6219c9.
Hannah, Laurie. "ISIS Chiefs Hiding in Dam That Cannot Be Bombed". NY Daily News. Last modified 2016. Accessed August 24, 2016. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/chiefs-hiding-dam-bombed-article-1.2505728.
Irshaid, Faisal. "Islamic State Moves in On Al-Qaeda Turf". BBC News | World. Last modified 2015. Accessed August 21, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-31064300.
"Islamic State Group: Crisis in Seven Charts". BBC News. Last modified 2016. Accessed August 22, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034.
Nitz, Brian. "ISIS Uses Tabqa Dam in Syria as Weapon of War | Green Prophet". Greenprophet.Com. Last modified 2016. Accessed August 24, 2016. http://www.greenprophet.com/2016/05/isis-uses-tabqa-dam-in-syria-as-weapon-of-war/.
Nytimes.com. 2015. 'The State of the War Against ISIS'. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/the-iraq-isis-conflict-in-maps-photos-and-video.html.
Vick, Karl. 2015. 'Why ISIS Is a Lot More Dangerous Than It Was a Month Ago'. TIME.Com. http://time.com/3917097/as-isis-grows-its-territory-it-becomes-increasingly-dangerous/.
OSINT Final Project Trista Lynn Carr
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