Trends Shaping Kerala Today

Ten Trends Shaping Kerala Today Dr.Mathai Baker Fenn [email protected] July 19, 2015 Contents 1 Ten Trends 1 2 Further Reading 4 1 Ten Trends There are different conceptual frameworks used to explain the times we live in. It is often thought to be marked by a set of common concerns. Sometimes they are even in conflict. Indeed we find that Postmodern Ideology suggests that the time for having one explanation that suits everything is over, and it is possible, even perhaps necessary to hold clashing views simultaneously. Even though there is no clear consensus on what the New Economy is, an indicative list would include the following. 1. The Knowledge Economy: Economist Paul Romer and others say that today economy productivity is achieved through knowledge. Such economies have certain special characteristics like the Law of Increaing Returns which conflict with classical theories of economics. 2. A services based economy in contrast to agriculture and industrial production. The first shift was from an agriculture based economy to industrial production. During the time more people were engaged in the factories than in agriculture. But with the arrival of mechanization the number of jobs in the industrial sector was out-paced by the number of jobs in the Service Sector. This explosion of the service sector, also includes sales and marketing of products. 3. A concern for the environment and better use of scarce resources, It has been suggested that if we continued with the notion of success as the accumulation of personal wealth, soon the earth will not be able to sustain it, especially as more and more people get rich. On the other hand there is a growing number of people who do not see it that way and are concerned about their personal carbon footprint or the impact that they have on the ecology through their personal choices. A growing number of people are giving up things that they can readily afford for the well being of the planet. 1 4. Back to nature and a mistrust of technological solutions, There is a growing sentiment that many of our problems are the legacy of the industrial revolution and the attitude of ” We do it because we can. ” A number of people are turning away from technology and trying to live in harmony with nature, a lifestyle advocated by Fukoka in his best seller, One Straw Revolution (1975) 5. Feeding the 7 billion people through sustainable agriculture, worldpop.png worldpop.png worldpop.pdf worldpop.pdf The rapidly increasing world population is the source of many problems in the world today, including resource management and waste management. Foremost among these is the problem of feeding this unprecedented population. We also want to avoid making the mistake of the previous industrial revolution inspired agriculture, which left behind farmlands with high levels of pesticides and chemical fertilizer. The controversy surrounding GM foods is but one of the controversies that bring together several trends of the new economy. 6. A concern for social justice, rights of under-represented groups like indigenous peoples, As new low cost media become available the voices of under-represented groups are more and more heard. Human rights are a buzzword today and discriminate even if it is covert or unknowingly done, is a complete no - no. 2 7. Artificial Intelligence, Genetic Modification and other technological advances and their application to solve human problems. Can genetically modified foods solve our food problems by providing greater productivity per square meter and by making food crops grow in non-arable land? Can artificially intelligent robots take up menial jobs that humans are unwilling or unable to do? Can robots work in highly radioactive places like Chernobyl? Can self driving cars reduce automobile accidents? 8. Urbanization / Concentration More and more of Kerala’s population are moving towards urban centres. In 2001, the percentage of Kerala’s population living in urban centres was 25.96 %. Ten years later, the percentage has risen to 47.72 % showing the rapid pace of urbanization. In the short run such a concentration of people brings with it problems of personal transport, waste management, etc. In the long run, it calls for fundamental changes in integrated planning. For example, farms bring nutritional content from the rural spaces to the cities slowly depleting the rural farmlands of nutritional content. Meanwhile human waste does not return to those farmlands to replenish the soil as would be naturally the case. 9. Caring for an ageing population Due to rising life-expectancy and falling birth rates, the average age of most developed nations have been steadily increasing. This means that more and more of the population needs to be taken care of, while there are fewer younger people to do this. Kerala is no exception to this rule. The CDS report Kerala Ageing Survey 2014 tells us that the average age of the population in Kerala is significantly above the national average. This brings with it, the need for fundamental structural change in society. Not just does it open up the possibility for services that cater to the needs of older citizens, it brings with it governance issues of personal mobility, etc. Kerala needs to plan for the future. 10. Wealth distribution to the other 99 We Are The 99 % was the slogan for the high-profile Occupy Wall Street that began in Sep 2011. It was inspired by Joseph Stiglitz’s article in May 2011 issue of Vanity Fair, saying that 1 % of Americans control about 40% of its wealth. The issue of the distribution of wealth has been an important issue for a while now. However the problem has not gone away it has only become worse. 3 Kerala has always been concerned with equitable distribution of wealth1 . Yet capitalism depends on the idea of inequality. This concern has been blamed for the lack of industrialization in Kerala. Perhaps Schumpeter was right when he said, capitalism is a self-limiting exercise. Does the knowledge economy give us a way towards an inclusive perspective for economics development? In a service economy, can anyone with the required skills provide services and be paid for it? 2 Further Reading Below is a list of ideas and authors who have been influential in describing the contours of the Emerging New Economy. Where there is a pivotal book, it is mentioned too. Aldous Huxley, A Brave New World (1932) This book represents a whole genre of science fiction where authors set their books in the future. In this book Huxley forsees many technological developments that have happened since. Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism,Socialism and Democracy (1942) Schumpeter viewed economic activity as a human activity and was critical of the economists of his time. He argued for including sociological data into economic activity and also predicted the implosion of capitalism due to factors intrinsic in the system. Alvin Toffler, Future Shock (1970) First of his famous trilogy, the other books being Power Shift and the Third Wave. Rachel Carson(1962), Silent Spring In her epic book Rachel Carson investigates the role of pesticide in poisoning nature and birds. Her book led to the creation of the American Environmental Protection Agency. Gordon Rattray Taylor (1968), Biological Time Bomb A former journalist who trained his eye on the Biological Revolution including artificial insemination, organ transplants and even mood changing drugs. Lyotard(1979), The Postmodern Condition Lyotard questioned the relevance of Grand Narratives in his study of natural sciences. He says that in the Postmodern world, Grand Narratives are replaced by more contextual smaller 1 Some might even say ”...overly concerned with...” 4 narratives. Hence Science is no longer all about discovering the Truth, its about solving problems. Arie D Gues (1997), The Living Company: Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment: Peter Senge explains how Royal Dutch Shell asked the question- What are the important characteristics of organizations that survived over a century. Arie D Guess was the one who was put in charge of finding the answer. It turns out that the most important resource organizations have for long term survival, is Knowledge. E.F. Schumacher, Small is Beautiful (1973) This book considered to be one of the 100 most influential books since the second world war, argues that the popular economic models popular during the 20th Century is unsustainable and instead argues for using just as much resources as we need, not more. He argues against the predominant economic value of materialism. Peter Drucker Peter Drucker was a great admirer of Schumpeter and was among the early visionaries who saw the emergence of the Knowledge-based society. To read Click here 5