Internal Coalition fears Dutton nuclear plan will confirm no return to good old days of energy prices a decade ago
In short:
There are rumblings within the Coalition that Peter Dutton's high-stakes nuclear plan will undermine the opposition leader's strategy of keeping pressure on Labor over the cost of living.
"Nuclear will keep the lights on, but it's hardly going to bring prices back down to where they were 10 years ago," said one Coalition source.
What's next?
Peter Dutton and Ted O'Brien are expected to reveal on Friday the long-term cost of building a nuclear power industry, saying it will be cheaper than Labor's renewables-plus-gas plan.
Peter Dutton will unveil politically risky costings for his nuclear power ambitions on Friday amid rumblings from within the Coalition that the high-cost plan will derail his political strategy of keeping pressure on Labor over cost-of-living and energy prices.
Senior Coalition sources expressed reservations about the much-anticipated nuclear modelling, noting it would not map out an energy future in which households would get any immediate or even long-term relief.
Internal debate over the nuclear modelling, and when Mr Dutton should release details, has been a source of tension within the Coalition for months.
"The fundamental problem is that whichever way you cost it, nuclear power is not hugely cheap," said one Coalition member speaking on condition of anonymity.
"Nuclear will keep the lights on, but it's hardly going to bring prices back down to where they were 10 years ago."
There has also been frustration among Coalition strategists at the levels of media interest in Mr Dutton's promised modelling, which has been prepared for the Coalition by Adelaide-based firm Frontier Economics.
One Coalition figure complained that Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen had not faced a similar level of scrutiny over his plan to build an energy system with 82 per cent renewables by 2030.
The consultancy is understood to have costed Mr Dutton's plans to roll out large-scale nuclear across sites across the country, with significant "savings" compared to the government's plan coming from extended use of coal and fewer solar and wind installations.
Loading...The findings are likely to be hotly contested, with opponents of nuclear energy pointing to this week's CSIRO "gen-cost" report that says the energy source is at least twice as expensive as renewables.
The ABC was told that senior members of the shadow cabinet were slated to hold a phone hook-up late on Thursday to discuss the modelling and communications strategy.
Another senior government figure said the opposition's deliberations in recent days — which were held to a tight circle of advisers and senior shadow cabinet members — were about how to time the release rather than over its content.
"It's not about the complexity. It's about the timing," said one person familiar with the discussions.
Mr Dutton first announced his intention to adopt a nuclear energy policy ahead of the May budget and subsequently revealed the reactors could be located at seven facilities around the country, most of them on sites hosting retired or existing coal-power stations.
Mr Dutton, along with shadow energy spokesman Ted O'Brien, repeatedly promised to unveil detailed modelling of that plan "before Christmas".
However, Mr Dutton has previously said the Coalition repeatedly delayed the release for fear of drawing attention away from the government's problems, such as when news of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's multi-million beach house purchase emerged.
Mr Dutton indicated earlier this week that the material would be released on Friday.
Opponents of Mr Dutton's plan have been escalating their criticism over recent days.
"There's a flood of misinformation out there and political spin, but it's worth remembering that not a single investor is lining up to build nuclear in Australia, but when it comes to renewables, they're practically knocking down the door," said Greg Bourne, a former BP Australasia executive and energy advisor to the Thatcher government.
"And globally, 10 times as much investment is going to renewable energy than is going into nuclear."
"For Australia, even the spectre of nuclear is a dragging anchor on our progress in transitioning. In reducing emissions, we have no time to waste."
Electrical Trades Union national secretary Michael Wright said this week's Capacity Investment Scheme tender — which unlocked 6.4 gigawatts of renewable power projects — showed solar, wind and batteries were the "fastest, lowest-cost path to energy transition, while nuclear is too slow and too expensive for Australia's energy needs".
"We are already seeing the confusion and uncertainty sown by Mr Dutton delay renewables projects and destroy job opportunities for our members," Mr Wright said.
"It's time to listen to the evidence and drop this nuclear pipedream because it is not in the national interest."