A Donald Trump return to the White House seemed inconceivable on January 6, 2021.
Yet, 30 months on from the attack on the Capitol, the former president is now likely to win the Republican primaries and face President Joe Biden in an electoral rematch from four years before.
Donald Trump is leading his GOP rivals by a country mile in the polls.
Except for a few dips below 50 percent, he’s maintained a lead that puts him ahead of all his opponents combined since early April.
His closest competitor, Ron DeSantis, has dropped off since the beginning of the year with only 15.5 percent of Republicans in favor of the Florida Governor as of July 27, more than 35 points behind the former president (52.4 percent).
Trump’s support at this point in an electoral cycle has only been matched by three other nonincumbent candidates in recent history.
Al Gore and George W. Bush both held more than half the party vote in 2000, while Trump’s Democrat counterpart Hillary Clinton saw similar levels of support among voters in the lead-up to 2016.
The Polls of the Past
No candidate has ever recovered from a deficit of 30 points or more in U.S. history. Barack Obama almost fell behind Clinton by such an amount in October 2007, but favorable results in the early-voting states helped build momentum for his ultimately successful campaign.
Trump – who has led the Republican primaries for the past eight years – leads by double digits in such states including New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina.
Even in the Biden vs. Trump polls, the latter is performing noticeably better than in 2020.
Biden’s lead nationwide was regularly just below double digits in the lead-up to the 2020 election. In comparison, the current figures show a much closer race, with Trump even leading the incumbent in a handful of surveys.
Somewhat remarkably, Trump’s nationwide support remains strong despite two active indictments with more support potentially in the pipeline.
Swings and Roundabouts
As with any neck-and-neck election, the presidency is set to be decided in the swing states, one of which could be Pennsylvania.
The state was secured by margins of 0.72 percent and 1.16 percent in 2016 and 2020 respectively, with the candidate winning Pennsylvania subsequently winning the election in a trend that’s stood for 20 years.
Trump clearly recognizes the importance of the state having campaigned there as recently as Saturday.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll also sparked warning signs for the Democrats.
Both Donald Trump (89 percent) and Biden (94 percent) hold strong support in Pennsylvania among party voters in a hypothetical 2024 match-up.
However, the Republican edged his rival in a virtual dead heat of 47-46 in the poll released on June 28.
A close fight will be irrelevant come the morning of November 6, 2024. No matter the margin of victory, the winner will receive all 19 electoral votes in a huge stepping stone toward the presidency.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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