Bozena Gulija
A financial sector professional with primary expertise in regulation, regulatory policy, risk management and compliance, whose experience spans the private and public sector across several jurisdictions (EU, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg and Croatia).She has worked for private companies including Euroclear, State Street, Nordea, and Intesa Sanpaolo Group, and public institutions like the European Court of Auditors, the Croatian National Bank, and the Institute for International Relations. Bozena has been actively collaborating with several professional and academic institutions through lectures and research projects (e.g. Warwick University, Zagreb University, IADI-BIS, Central Banking, Risk.net, Casual Capital) and as an author and reviewer (e.g. IFLR - International Financial Law Journal, Journal of Banking Regulation).Main expertise:• Global and EU financial sector policies
Supervisors: na
Address: Zagreb, Grad Zagreb, Croatia
Supervisors: na
Address: Zagreb, Grad Zagreb, Croatia
less
Interests
Uploads
Papers by Bozena Gulija
https://www.financialregulationintl.com/regulation/financial-sector-regulatory-overview-looking-towards-2023-and-beyond-152993.htm
This article brings an overview and timelines outlining the key regulatory milestones (potential new initiatives, legislative processes, implementation schedules) impacting the financial sector over the three-year (2023-2026) horizon with a focus on the expected developments at the global level and in the EU, UK, US. Unpredictable geopolitical dynamics, sanctions regimes, cybersecurity threats, as well as rapidly changing macroeconomic variables and socioeconomic sentiment, undoubtedly require a particularly agile approach by regulators, financial sector entities and their clients. This analysis aims to provide insights into new and upcoming regulatory developments affecting banking, capital markets, clearing and settlement, payment services, as well as overreaching transversal topics of sustainability and digitalisation. Although global cooperation remains important, regulatory fragmentation follows political delineations, and the EU and UK divergencies are expected to deepen further. This overview primarily looks at the horizon from the European frame of reference, but the global perspective and some other jurisdictions are also within the scope.
https://www.financialregulationintl.com/regulation/irrbb-regulatory-developments-in-the-rising-interest-rate-environment--1.htm
Interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) has recently become a particularly relevant topic. In the EU, two interconnected aspects are prominent: a rapidly changing environment due to rising interest rates and the implementation of global regulatory standards.
Although the low interest rate environment prevailed for an extended period, the regulators, banks and other financial sector stakeholders were aware that rates would start rising again. In his recent speech, Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), noted that present interest rate normalisation might be beneficial for banks' profitability but also warned about potential adverse effects on banks' interest rate risk profiles. Furthermore, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has recently announced its intention to scrutinise banks' internal models and explicitly mentioned IRRBB in that context.
From the regulatory perspective, a significant step at the global level was made in 2016 when the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published the new Standards on IRRBB. In order to fully implement the global standards, the EBA on 20 October 2022 published three revised/new documents: Guidelines on IRRBB and credit spread risk in the banking book (CSRBB), RTS on IRRBB standardised approach, and RTS on IRRBB supervisory outlier tests (SOT). The most important amendments relate to the introduction of CSRBB as a separate risk category, and the standard IRRBB framework for the economic value of equity (EVE) and net interest income (NII).
Article: https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/IADI%20Sponsored%20Paper%202.pdf
Annex 1: Individual bank sheets (variables, movements and changes, composite indicators) https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2001_Individual%20bank%20sheets.pdf
Annex 2: Bank overview (variables and change indicators) with implied relevance of their individual ‘shock responses’ to the Banking Union according to their individual asset size https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2002_Bank%20overview%20-%20indicators%20and%20assets.pdf
Annex 3: EU/SSM and member state country sheets https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2003%20-%20EU%20and%20MSs%20sheets_2022-07-04.pdf
Annex 4: Member states’ overview (variables and change indicators) with implied relevance of their individual ‘shock responses’ to the Banking Union according to their aggregate banks’ asset size https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2004_MS%20overview.pdf
It focuses on:
- Uncertainty and risk
- Country risk management framework
- Country risk assessment
- Information sources about country risk factors
- Country risk ratings
- Early warning signals
- Country risk treatment
It focuses on:
- Historical perspective
- Defining country risk
- Country risk components
- Impact of country risk
This article examines the definition of sovereign risk, how it is assessed, and what options are available for its mitigation.
The financial industry is going to be severely impacted by these changes, as country risk is multi-faceted and influenced by a multitude of factors. Thus, it is beneficial to recall the key concepts in order to facilitate navigation in the sea of information and identify the analyses that correspond appropriately to the specific needs.
To begin, it is critical to distinguish between some frequently used and often misused terminology in the field of country risk, as well as to establish a basic common taxonomy. Country risk is considered to be an umbrella term that encompasses a set of interdependent economic, political, and social ‘sub-risks’. In this regard, it includes macroeconomic, exchange rate, sovereign, legal, regulatory, political, and socio-cultural factors.
=》Introduction [10/03/2022 Free to read.] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x3j5hqdwqkvd/iflr39s-geopolitical-crisis-report
=》Part 1: Country risk [10/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x3j8g89xdyfh/country-risk
=》Part 2: Country risk management [15/03/2022 Free to read.] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x5m5b009swnq/report-country-risk-management
=》Part 3: Political risk [18/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x6nsw0znltwb/geopolitical-risk-report-part-three-political-risk
=》Part 4: Sovereign risk [22/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x8jcbd2p30mt/geopolitical-crisis-report-part-four-sovereign-risk
=》Case study: Russia and Ukraine [24/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x9chv5h33plh/geopolitical-crisis-report-part-five-case-study-on-russia-and-ukraine
Some of the questions addressed:
- What is Pillar 2 and its origins?
- What is the structure of Pillar 2? SRP, SREP, ICAAP, ILAAP
- What are the four principles of Pillar 2?
- What is comprehensive risk coverage? (including e.g., IRRBB)
- What is SREP?
- What are pillar 2 buffers? (e.g., P2R, P2G)
https://www.financialregulationintl.com/regulation/financial-sector-regulatory-overview-looking-towards-2023-and-beyond-152993.htm
This article brings an overview and timelines outlining the key regulatory milestones (potential new initiatives, legislative processes, implementation schedules) impacting the financial sector over the three-year (2023-2026) horizon with a focus on the expected developments at the global level and in the EU, UK, US. Unpredictable geopolitical dynamics, sanctions regimes, cybersecurity threats, as well as rapidly changing macroeconomic variables and socioeconomic sentiment, undoubtedly require a particularly agile approach by regulators, financial sector entities and their clients. This analysis aims to provide insights into new and upcoming regulatory developments affecting banking, capital markets, clearing and settlement, payment services, as well as overreaching transversal topics of sustainability and digitalisation. Although global cooperation remains important, regulatory fragmentation follows political delineations, and the EU and UK divergencies are expected to deepen further. This overview primarily looks at the horizon from the European frame of reference, but the global perspective and some other jurisdictions are also within the scope.
https://www.financialregulationintl.com/regulation/irrbb-regulatory-developments-in-the-rising-interest-rate-environment--1.htm
Interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) has recently become a particularly relevant topic. In the EU, two interconnected aspects are prominent: a rapidly changing environment due to rising interest rates and the implementation of global regulatory standards.
Although the low interest rate environment prevailed for an extended period, the regulators, banks and other financial sector stakeholders were aware that rates would start rising again. In his recent speech, Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), noted that present interest rate normalisation might be beneficial for banks' profitability but also warned about potential adverse effects on banks' interest rate risk profiles. Furthermore, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has recently announced its intention to scrutinise banks' internal models and explicitly mentioned IRRBB in that context.
From the regulatory perspective, a significant step at the global level was made in 2016 when the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published the new Standards on IRRBB. In order to fully implement the global standards, the EBA on 20 October 2022 published three revised/new documents: Guidelines on IRRBB and credit spread risk in the banking book (CSRBB), RTS on IRRBB standardised approach, and RTS on IRRBB supervisory outlier tests (SOT). The most important amendments relate to the introduction of CSRBB as a separate risk category, and the standard IRRBB framework for the economic value of equity (EVE) and net interest income (NII).
Article: https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/IADI%20Sponsored%20Paper%202.pdf
Annex 1: Individual bank sheets (variables, movements and changes, composite indicators) https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2001_Individual%20bank%20sheets.pdf
Annex 2: Bank overview (variables and change indicators) with implied relevance of their individual ‘shock responses’ to the Banking Union according to their individual asset size https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2002_Bank%20overview%20-%20indicators%20and%20assets.pdf
Annex 3: EU/SSM and member state country sheets https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2003%20-%20EU%20and%20MSs%20sheets_2022-07-04.pdf
Annex 4: Member states’ overview (variables and change indicators) with implied relevance of their individual ‘shock responses’ to the Banking Union according to their aggregate banks’ asset size https://www.iadi.org/en/assets/File/Papers/Other%20Deposit%20Insurance%20Research%20and%20Policy%20Papers/sponsored2/Annex%2004_MS%20overview.pdf
It focuses on:
- Uncertainty and risk
- Country risk management framework
- Country risk assessment
- Information sources about country risk factors
- Country risk ratings
- Early warning signals
- Country risk treatment
It focuses on:
- Historical perspective
- Defining country risk
- Country risk components
- Impact of country risk
This article examines the definition of sovereign risk, how it is assessed, and what options are available for its mitigation.
The financial industry is going to be severely impacted by these changes, as country risk is multi-faceted and influenced by a multitude of factors. Thus, it is beneficial to recall the key concepts in order to facilitate navigation in the sea of information and identify the analyses that correspond appropriately to the specific needs.
To begin, it is critical to distinguish between some frequently used and often misused terminology in the field of country risk, as well as to establish a basic common taxonomy. Country risk is considered to be an umbrella term that encompasses a set of interdependent economic, political, and social ‘sub-risks’. In this regard, it includes macroeconomic, exchange rate, sovereign, legal, regulatory, political, and socio-cultural factors.
=》Introduction [10/03/2022 Free to read.] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x3j5hqdwqkvd/iflr39s-geopolitical-crisis-report
=》Part 1: Country risk [10/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x3j8g89xdyfh/country-risk
=》Part 2: Country risk management [15/03/2022 Free to read.] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x5m5b009swnq/report-country-risk-management
=》Part 3: Political risk [18/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x6nsw0znltwb/geopolitical-risk-report-part-three-political-risk
=》Part 4: Sovereign risk [22/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x8jcbd2p30mt/geopolitical-crisis-report-part-four-sovereign-risk
=》Case study: Russia and Ukraine [24/03/2022] https://www.iflr.com/article/b1x9chv5h33plh/geopolitical-crisis-report-part-five-case-study-on-russia-and-ukraine
Some of the questions addressed:
- What is Pillar 2 and its origins?
- What is the structure of Pillar 2? SRP, SREP, ICAAP, ILAAP
- What are the four principles of Pillar 2?
- What is comprehensive risk coverage? (including e.g., IRRBB)
- What is SREP?
- What are pillar 2 buffers? (e.g., P2R, P2G)