Papers by Aleksandras Rutkauskas
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing eBooks, Jan 6, 2015
The book is dedicated to modern multicriterial stochastic, game & neural network analysis whe... more The book is dedicated to modern multicriterial stochastic, game & neural network analysis when modelling the sustainable economic development incl. risk evaluation, commercialization of nanotechnologies, financing and global talent competitivity. A. Ludhiyani, S. Joshi accent the importance of risk evaluation and propose the systematic evaluation of strategic behavior in this field etc. In other article, they used Monte Carlo simulation for evaluating the strategy necessary to get the maximum shareholder returns. The study of A. V. Rutkauskas is dedicated to insight stochastic network as an appropriate means for disclosure of country's development sustainability potential. He discusses the stochastic network model of universal sustainability code for country development by matching development interests, disposable resources’ allocation a/o characteristics of complex adaptive systems. A. Buracas, V. Navickas, S. Girdzijauskas evaluates the global talent competitiveness based on multiple criteria assessment, its empirical values in the Baltic States, their reliability as a criteria for distributing investments in knowledge.
ABSTRACT At the contemporary stage of modern metaeconomics, new approaches to global reality such... more ABSTRACT At the contemporary stage of modern metaeconomics, new approaches to global reality such as multiple criteria evaluations, new achievements in stochastical and game theory, neural economics a/o are an important instrument for more precisely and deeply researches of intellectual potential and knowledge economy development, as a result, the engines of sustainable economic competitiveness and social progress The successful application of these approaches was demonstrated in multiple researches both of individual authors and analytical WEF reports dedicated to international assessment of global competitiveness, innovations, IT, talents a/o indices. New and most interesting trends in researches include social matrixes, multistage regressive analysis of surrounding social, psychological a/o processes of economic activity, also modern expert evaluations and SWOT analysis helping better take into account the impact of shadow economy, effects of sustainable development and non measurable impact of financial bubbles (see references below) The presented publication attempted to reveal some results of developing evaluation techniques when determining the competitive strength and rating of the newly economies or new financial application (like risk evaluation or commercialization of nanotechnologies), also programming effective distribution of disposable resources according to this approaches with more detailed account of their specifics. The creation of modern knowledge based economy and enlargement of competitive advantage are the priorities of the economic development process in the states of transitional economies In the article of Arpit Ludhiyani and Satyadhar Joshi Strategic Finance for Commercialization of CNTthe development of game theory model for nanotechnology is analysed, also the decision tree and neural network analysis are presented The authors accent importance of risk evaluation investing in nanotechnology and propose the systematic evaluation of strategic behavior in nanotechnology, barrier to commercialization, etc Use of decision tree, regression analysis, game theory, neural network and other tools for predicting financial aspects of nanotechnology commercialization are shown For performing simulation, they used Excel, Gambit and NeuroXL As they resume, this research will be useful for predicting the rate for nanotechnology commercialization. In other article of Arpit Ludhiyani and Satyadhar Joshi, Forecasting Shareholder Returns Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Capital Structure, Share Repurchases and Convertible Callable Bonds, they discussed various models used to project company’s financials like sales, EV/EBITDA, margins, EBITDA, etc which plays a pivotal role in calculating total share of holder’s returns for the projected period They used Monte Carlo simulation for evaluating the strategy necessary to get the maximum share holder returns
Social Science Research Network, 2007
The main goal of the article is to reveal the content of the so-called "double trump" d... more The main goal of the article is to reveal the content of the so-called "double trump" decision management model in the global currency market and to present the possibilities and results of its practical application. This model is developed on the basis of the author's earlier proposed model of adequate investment decision evaluation portfolio; and it was experimentally implemented with the aid of a special currency rate change forecasting system. The investigation was carried out using real FOREX data for the period from 11 December to 10 October. The conceptual aim of the article is to broaden the discussion about financial market efficiency by testing market efficiency theory not through an attempt to defeat the market, but through proving market homogeneity, i.e. proving that there are always non-efficiency shoals in the market, when it is possible to elaborate a decision strategy allowing an advantage over the real market decisions over a rather long period of time. The pragmatic aim of the research is to find the possibilities and means of decision management in the currency market strategies advantageous over particular market decisions in general. Continuous development and practical use of such strategies should help in forming market intelligence.
Business: Theory and Practice, Jun 11, 2013
Santrauka. Straipsnio tikslas-pasinaudoti stochastiškai informatyvios ekspertinės sistemos galimy... more Santrauka. Straipsnio tikslas-pasinaudoti stochastiškai informatyvios ekspertinės sistemos galimybėmis, pritaikant jas mokesčių masto ir struktūros sąveikų su pokyčiais darbo rinkoje analizei. Stochastiškai informatyvi ekspertizė straipsnyje suprantama kaip ekspertinio vertinimo atvejis, kai nagrinėjamo požymio galimybių ekspertiniai įverčiai pateikiami kaip galimybių tikimybės skirstiniai. Stochastiškai informatyvios ekspertizės idėją bandoma konstruktyviai sujungti su koreliacinės ir regresinės analizės metodų galimybėmis. Viena vertus, pasiektos koreliacinės regresinės analizės galimybės nustatyti priklausomybių pobūdį ir formas kartu atsižvelgiant į neapibrėžties poveikį. Kita vertus, stochastiškai informatyvios ekspertizės metodika, pasitelkiant imitacinio modeliavimo galimybes, leidžia regresinės koreliacinės analizės metu gautą informaciją panaudoti nagrinėjamų sąveikų rodikliams aprašyti jų reikšmių galimybių tikimybės skirstiniais, taip pat natūraliai sujungiant efektyvumo ir patikimumo galimybes, nagrinėjant darbo rinkos ir socialinio draudimo įmokų sąveikos procesus. Reikšminiai žodžiai: ekspertinių sistemų tinklas, stochastiškai informatyvi ekspertizė, požymio reikšmės galimybių tikimybės skirstinys, optimalus išteklių paskirstymas neapibrėžties sąlygomis.
Projektas „Lietuvos MTEP pajėgumo didinimas ugdant socialinio ugdymo tyrėjų kompetencijas“Globali... more Projektas „Lietuvos MTEP pajėgumo didinimas ugdant socialinio ugdymo tyrėjų kompetencijas“Globalioje šiuolaikinėje visuomenėje socialinio ugdymo tyrėjams keliami vis didesni kompetencijų reikalavimai, todėl svarbia užduotimi tampa reikalingiausių kompetencijų, būtinų socialinio ugdymo tyrėjams Lietuvoje, nustatymas. Šiame straipsnyje, taikant adekvačiojo portfelio metodą, išskiriamos svarbiausios socialinio ugdymo tyrėjų kompetencijos. Siūlomas modulių, kurie galėtų padėti šias kompetencijas ugdyti, sąrašasVilniaus Gedimino technikos universitetas, [email protected] Gedimino technikos universitetas, [email protected] Didžiojo universitetasŠvietimo akademij
Socialiniai tyrimai, 2007
Business: Theory and Practice, Jun 1, 2011
1. Ivadas Rizikos savoka vartojama gan daznai, todel butina siekti sios savokos konstruktyvumo, s... more 1. Ivadas Rizikos savoka vartojama gan daznai, todel butina siekti sios savokos konstruktyvumo, svarbu ne tik isnagrineti rizikos apibrezimus, vartojamus ivairiuose moksliniuose darbuose, siekiant suprasti komplikuotos padeties esmerizika skirtingose srityse suprantama kitaip. Siame straipsnyje aptartas socialiniu mokslu srityje taikomos rizikos turinys, remiantis atliktais tyrimais, ypac akcentuojant rizikos suvokima investiciju moksle. Is esmes rizika yra daugiafunkce savoka, vartojama ivairiais aspektais ivairiuose kontekstuose (van Brunschot 2009). Yra sukurtos atskiros sociologines rizikos teorijos, analizuojancios rizikos suvokima (Balzeikiene 2009). Norint iliustruoti, kaip placiai taikoma rizikos savoka, galima remtis French ir Liang (1993) pasakymu, kad "rizika yra pernelyg daznai vartojamas zodis; is tikruju jis vartojamas tokia daugybe prasmiu, kad faktiskai tampa bereiksmis". Straipsnyje atliekamo tyrimo tikslas--atskleisti rizikos sampratos esme investiciju mokslo kontekste. Tyrimo objektas--rizika ir jos kiekybiniai matai. Atliekant tyrima buvo taikomi mokslines literaturos sistemines, lyginamosios ir logines analizes metodai. 2. Rizikos suvokimas per neapibrezti ir pasitikejima Kai kuriose kalbose, taip pat ir anglu kalboje, zodzio rizika vartojimas sietinas su neigiamu rezultatu, nors rizikingi veiksmai gali duoti ir teigiama rezultata. Yra ivairiu rizika sukelianciu veiksmu grupavimo budu. Paprastai rizikingi veiksmai skirstomi pagal siuos kriterijus: --patirtu nuostoliu ar gautos naudos pobudi (finansiniai, socialiniai, fiziniai ir t. t.); --su rizika susietu nuostoliu ar naudos laipsni (loterijos bilieto isigijimas, losimas kazino); --itaka, nesauguma (atliekancius rizikingus veiksmus asmenis gali veikti ir kitos rizikos) (van Brunschot 2009). Van Brunschot (2009) sieja rizika su busimu ivykiu--teigiamu, neigiamu ar misriu--galimybemis, nors dazniausiai si savoka turi negatyvu atspalvi. Be to, kasdienis sios savokos vartojimas sumazino jos orientacija i ateiti, ir vietoj prigimtines rizikos paskirties--ateities galimybiu nusakymo--si savoka vartojama nepalankiai padeciai dabartyje apibudinti. Zymiausiuose zodynuose rizika apibreziama kaip "pavojaus, praradimo, suzeidimo arba kitu neigiamu pasekmiu sansas arba galimybe" (Thompson 1996) arba konkreciai investiciju valdymo srityje kaip "galimybe investicijai (akcijai arba prekei) prarasti savo verte" (Webster Dictionary). Rejda (2008) teigia, kad nera bendro rizikos apibrezimo, taciau tradiciskai rizika siejama su neapibreztumu. Autorius pateikia toki apibrezima: "Rizika--tai neapibreztumas, susijes su netekties ivykiu", taciau ir kitaip nusako rizika: 1. Ateities rezultatu kintamumas. 2. Netekties galimybe. 3. Neigiamo nukrypimo galimybe nuo laukiamo (tiketinojo) rezultato. 4. Galimu rezultatu nepastovumas, susiformaves konkrecioje situacijoje. 5. Galimybe jautriam subjektui patirti netekti. Rejda taip pat siulo skirti rizika (konkreciai--objektyvia rizika) nuo netekties galimybes. Netekties galimybe--tai tikimybe, kad ivykis, sukeliantis netekti, ivyks. Objektyvi rizika--tai salyginis patirtos netekties nukrypimas nuo lauktinos netekties. Taciau bene svarbiausia indeli i rizikos koncepcijos tyrima socialiniuose moksluose inese Frank Knight (1921), savo knygoje "Rizika, neapibreztumas ir pelnas" ("Risk, Uncertainty and Profit") atskirai apibrezes rizika ir neapibreztuma, isryskines skirtumus tarp siu savoku ir netgi pateikes jas kaip priesingybes. Skirtumas tarp ju apibudinamas tuo, kad kuo labiau artejama nuo rizikos prie neapibreztumo, tuo sunkiau apibrezti stochastinius dydzius ir nusakyti galimu rezultatu tikimybes. Placia diskusija apie rizika ekonomikoje, remdamasis Knight ir kitu mokslininku teiginiais, ispletojo Taylor (2003). Paskatinti diskusijos apie rizika mokslo srityje pradininko Knignt (1921) minciu, Luce ir Raiffa (1957) isgrynina naudinga rizikos apibrezima sprendimu priemimo srityje, isskirdami tris sprendimu priemimo rusis: 1. …
Ekonomska Istrazivanja-economic Research, Aug 19, 2021
The paper deals with the application of stochastic optimization principles for investment decisio... more The paper deals with the application of stochastic optimization principles for investment decision making. The authors present the investment management system based on an adequate portfolio model. For optimal portfolio construction and stock selection, the method of stochastically informative expertise and ranging is used. Investment portfolios in equity and currency markets are formed considering investor risk tolerance and risk preference level, as well as an individual utility function. Investment portfolios are constructed according to three criteria: return, risk, and reliability. The markets of Germany, the USA, and China, as well as foreign exchange markets, are analysed. The results reveal the efficient investment possibilities in the mentioned markets, allowing to reach investment return substantially exceeding market index return. Along with that, an innovative stochastic clustering methodology for investment assets is proposed. The obtained results are of great value for individual as well as institutional investors and are a suitable means to form efficient investment strategies in financial markets.
Economics and Management, Apr 3, 2009
In the paper formation of adequate portfolio will be discussed in details as well as the experien... more In the paper formation of adequate portfolio will be discussed in details as well as the experience of adequate portfolio application to practice like quantitative model in making financial investment decisions and projecting sustainable development strategies of complex systems will be summarized. The main attention is paid to the assessment of investment profitability possibilities reliability, as a core framework of the whole decision-making system, of course, taking into account the values of profitability possibilities and investor's ability to manage risk.
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Sep 30, 2008
The goal of the paper is development of the conception of sustainable return investment decisions... more The goal of the paper is development of the conception of sustainable return investment decisions strategy in capital and money markets and modeling of investment decisions along sustainable development concept in capital and money markets. The research was performed with an experiment in FOREX and in some matured and emerging capital markets. The adequate for investments decisions reliability assessment portfolio will be presented and analysed as main instrument for developing sustainable return investment decisions strategy. The cases of practical implementation of adequate portfolio will be widely described. Further, the pragmatical problems how to use the strategy as innovative and effective financial instrument for investors and stock treasury will be discussed. Practical calculation was made on the very last data of different markets.
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, Jun 24, 2011
The concepts of effectiveness, riskness and reliability are three cornerstones which together wit... more The concepts of effectiveness, riskness and reliability are three cornerstones which together with utility of investor constitute the base for decisions perception and management logic in order to match the possibilities of investment space with investor's objectives. Risk, which is "a chance or possibility of danger, loss, injury, or other adverse consequences" (The Oxford Modern English Dictionary) or, specifically, in the area of investment management-"the chance that an investment (as a stock or commodity) will lose value" (Webster Dictionary) is the function of risksness of selected assets altogether with skills of a subject to manage the riskness of the analysed object, process, etc. Thus risk is analysed as an interaction of possibilities riskness and abilities of a subject (investor) to manage these possibilities. The paper will reveal a consistent way towards investment possibilities set description, when investment assets possibilities are under uncertainty, what is understood in this paper as under stochasticity. As a possible means of the above mentioned match the authors propose portfolio adequate for investment stochastic nature and present its formation and application principles. This model has broad application possibilities in investing in exchange and capital markets as well as in forming sustainable investment strategies. There are many figures and schemes in the text. This is caused by the consideration that where geometrical drawing can provide a non-false solution, this drawing becomes also a decision search visualization instrument.
The main objective of the paper is to present the solution to the problem of possibilities' relia... more The main objective of the paper is to present the solution to the problem of possibilities' reliability management, which is an important problem of uncertainty (risk) economics. Also, the paper aims to propose adequate methods of stochastic optimization and reveal their broad implementation possibilities. Along with that, the concept of utility function is being disclosed, when we take into account not only the possibilities of prices and costs, but also their reliability, in order to achieve the highest value added in this process. The original methods of stochastic optimization are used, while searching for the optimal allocation of invested capital among the investment assets. Adequate investment portfolio is treated as theoretically sound and practically effective instrument for investment decision-making in capital and currency markets, as well as for other problems related with optimal resource allocation. The adequate portfolio supplements the modern portfolio by adding the third portfolio parameter-the reliability of return. Also, the utility function based on return, reliability and risk is used to find the optimal investment possibility for particular investor. The formed portfolio solutions were tested in the markets of NYSE, UK and France.
Edukacja Ekonomistów i Menedżerów, Oct 1, 2015
Under the circumstances of rapidly growing globalization and social sustainability development, t... more Under the circumstances of rapidly growing globalization and social sustainability development, the importance of human capital in the context of economic growth is constantly growing. Human capital development and adequate employment development require the acquisition of new knowledge and the use of innovation and knowledge in regular activities. The targeted integration of knowledge, innovation and technologies becomes an essential tool in solutions of country's employment problems. The currently available studies lack employment sustainability quantitative measures organized into a sustainability component, as well as their expressions, so the objective of this article is to reveal the importance of knowledge, innovation and technology cluster for employment growth. In order to achieve this objective, the concept of intelligent specialization and a new cluster of knowledge, innovation and technologies have been introduced to promote efficient solutions to employment problems and to lead to positive changes in the labour market, expanding employment growth. The following methods of research were used in this article: analysis of scientific literature, theoretical and practical statements matching method, statistical analysis.
Springer eBooks, Nov 8, 2014
The purpose of the paper is to describe how the structure of knowledge, innovation and technologi... more The purpose of the paper is to describe how the structure of knowledge, innovation and technologies’ cluster should be formed. The structure of the cluster is understood as a set of interacting components of the system. The authors synthesize the existing opinions and also reveal their own opinion about the possibility to determine the interaction among knowledge, innovation and technologies in the context of value creation or resource management, pursuing the preparation of the project for country universally sustainable development. The paper presents the original evaluation performed by the authors in order to optimally allocate the investment resources for knowledge, innovation and technologies among distinctive subsystems of universally sustainable development, as well as to optimally allocate the investment resources inside the cluster among the creation and development of knowledge, innovation and technologies. For the solution of the mentioned problem the methods of stochastic informative expertize and the adequate investment portfolio have been used.
Procedia. Economics and finance, 2015
Almost a half century ago started the concept of development sustainability cover the economic, e... more Almost a half century ago started the concept of development sustainability cover the economic, ecological and social systems and their development by the usage of the existing resources. However, an important problem is to concrete the content of the development sustainability to increase it adequacy and adaptivity. In addition, the attention is drawn to the fact that most indicators such as economic, ecologic, social development values are linked together, which refers the main criteria for the development of management in order to dominate in shaping development strategies. Furthermore, this articles analyze the goal of the 3M DSOS, which would be identified as the development of the multisector, multifactor, multicriteria development sustainability optimization system and analyse 12 main competencies.
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Apr 1, 2013
There are fields of business intelligence activities, as well as functions of leadership, through... more There are fields of business intelligence activities, as well as functions of leadership, through which the used resources can increase business value. If those resources are financial they must become capital which could be measured by its efficiency, risk and so far. For a problem to solve the adequate portfolio ideology is used. The potency of separate assets is combined into a system, not only for the highest result to obtain, but also for the most effective usage of resources. The task is solved using the stochastic optimization technique. The effect of each component of functional leadership portfolio or each business intelligence asset is a random variable and can be expressed as a probability distribution. Choosing the best possibility out of the possible options the overall greatest effect of intelligent leadership portfolio can be obtained.
The Engineering Economics, Dec 18, 2014
The concept of sustainability, and especially sustainable development, is among the most ambitiou... more The concept of sustainability, and especially sustainable development, is among the most ambitious and controversial concepts in the scientific literature. Knowledge and research concerning the condition, development or transformation of sustainability has become not only the original means of the generation of socioeconomic science knowledge. It is also an alternative for the analysis of especially sophisticated development problems-e.g. the problems of survival, effective change and avoidance of huge losses pertaining to such complexes as cities, countries or regions. Finding the ways of such knowledge conversion into the field of science is complex, but there is no alternative. Research of sustainable development has already become especially prevalent, and, thus, the objects of cognition should be structured, possibilities should be consolidated, and the efficiency of the use of resources must be elevated. The first challenge of sustainability research conversion into the sustainability science is a thorough mastering of the systemic research technologies, as well as the development of the principal methodology of systemic research while evolving the possibilities of civilisation survival on Earth. The objective of the research is to find an adequate quantitative measure of complex system development sustainability and investigate in detail the type of development of a small country or region that could be named as a realisation of sustainable development possibilities. The methodology of the research includes the application of an adequate portfolio model, stochastic optimisation, and systemic analysis. The conclusions obtained by the research state that development possibilities of a small country should not be evaluated only in terms of economic-ecological aspects; more components, such as politics, integration, marketing, social-demographics, creativity, religion, innovation, finance, and investment should be included, which could be logically divided into four subsystems of country universal sustainability. The research also presents the adequate composition of efficiency and reliability of the general effect pertaining to the activity of all the subsystems, as well as the optimal allocation of marginal investment unit among the four subsystems.
Business: Theory and Practice, Jun 22, 2011
Santrauka. Straipsnyje nagrinėjama rizikos koncepcijos esmė socialinių mokslų kontekste, ypač akc... more Santrauka. Straipsnyje nagrinėjama rizikos koncepcijos esmė socialinių mokslų kontekste, ypač akcentuojant rizikos turinį investicijų moksle. Pateikiamas ir analizuojamas klasikinis rizikos bei neapibrėžtumo sąvokų atskyrimas, atskleidžiamas rizikos ryšys su patikimumu (garantija). Nagrinėjami įvairūs galimi rizikos matai ir paaiškinama, kuo turi pasižymėti konstruktyvus rizikos matas. Remiantis išanalizuotais mokslininkų požiūriais, formuojamas rizikos kaip netekties dydžio subjektui apibrėžimas. Aprašant galimą netektį naudojant tikimybių skirstinį, siūloma netektį matuoti pasiskirstymo funkcija, o tikimybės skirstinio parametrus vaizduoti kaip stochastinius dydžius.
The main idea of the paper is the formation of regional competitiveness information system concep... more The main idea of the paper is the formation of regional competitiveness information system conception, structurization of this system, determining the sources of its information supply and its application to decisions management. Proper knowledge on competitiveness contents and various attributes of competitiveness ensure the effective functioning of the system. Fully developed regional competitiveness information system can be applied for formation
The purpose of this paper is not to analyze the sustainability of universe, but try to conceptual... more The purpose of this paper is not to analyze the sustainability of universe, but try to conceptualize what the universal sustainability is, when it comes to a single country or region, wherein realistically the religious, political, social, economic, environmental and investment subsystems are revealed as the vitality of spiritual and material existence media or maybe wherein the signs of erosion of the subsystems (as the of self-organized entities) correlation or development. The recent events in Africa and Europe unclose the problems, which are accumulated even more than the last decades and the way-not solving themmenace not only to sustainability of development of a single country or regions, but also to imbalance of the global evolution. In the article the possibilities of usage of the sustainability portfolio of subsystems, as means of modern systematic analysis resort is analyzed. Invoking the expert methods and abilities of the portfolio's techniques, the problem of optimal allocation of financial resources among the separate sustainability's subsystems, is trying to be solved, which would let to reach the nourishing standards of universal sustainability. The universal sustainability index for the country was chosen the particular composition of that country's sustainability subsystems indexes. In the dynamics the index is known as random process and its force for a particular moment is measured by the level of index and level's reliability or guarantee. To solve the problem-financial resources allocation in order to reach the maximum power of sustainability index, the idea OPEN ACCESS of Markowitz random field was invoked, and a means for the technical solution the system of simulation models and decisions-"GoldSim" was used.
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Papers by Aleksandras Rutkauskas