Papers by Jean-Marie Grether
We construct the world's centers of gravity for human population, GDP and CO2 emissions by ta... more We construct the world's centers of gravity for human population, GDP and CO2 emissions by taking the best out of five recognized data sources covering the last two centuries. We also propose a more appropriate two-map representation of the location of the center of gravity, which abstracts from the usual distortions affecting the projection of a point within a three-dimensional sphere on a two-dimensional map. This allows for a more accurate interpretation of the underlying trends. We find a radical Western shift of GDP and CO2 emissions centers during the 19th century, in sharp contrast with the stability of the demographic center of gravity. Both GDP and emissions trends are reversed in the first half of the 20th century, after World War I for CO2 emissions, and after World War II for GDP. Since then, both centers are moving eastward at an accelerating speed. These patterns are consistent with the initial lead of Western countries starting the industrial revolution and the ad...
Ce papier analyse les déterminants de la politique d'immigration au sein d'une économie ouverte a... more Ce papier analyse les déterminants de la politique d'immigration au sein d'une économie ouverte au commerce international. Après un survol du débat sur l'existence d'un "surplus migratoire", les principales contributions de l'approche d'économie politique de la politique migratoire sont passées en revue à l'aide d'un modèle de Ricardo-Viner. L'approche de l'électeur médian est appliquée à différentes versions du modèle à facteurs spécifiques, qui apportent chacune un éclairage sur les changements récents ayant affecté l'attitude face à l'immigration (opposition croissante, en particulier à l'encontre des immigrants non qualifiés) et les politiques nationales (travailleurs saisonniers ou permanents, coexistence d'immigrants légaux et illégaux, application laxiste des réglementations envers les illégaux).
This paper proposes a new method to test the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous protection and ... more This paper proposes a new method to test the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous protection and lobby formation, which does not require data on lobby formation or contributions. It identifies politically organized industries using commonly available trade and production data, as well as the model's structural parameter estimates. Applied to India, it yields results that are qualitatively consistent with the model's predictions and that seem quantitatively more plausible than estimates given for the US by alternative methods. Our estimates imply that the weight put by the Indian government on contributions by politically organized sectors is a third of the weight it puts on (gross) social welfare, well above existing estimates for the United States.
The World Economy
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis
Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, 2011
ABSTRACT This chapter proposes a refined and updated measurement of the World's Economic ... more ABSTRACT This chapter proposes a refined and updated measurement of the World's Economic Center of Gravity over the 1950–2008 period, based on historical data provided by Maddison (2010) and on the detailed grid data of the G-Econ (Nordhaus, 2006) database. The economic center of gravity is located in the vicinity of Iceland during the first three decades, and then heads strongly toward the East since 1980. Regarding geographic concentration, world production is less concentrated than population across the Earth's surface, and becomes even less so over time. A new decomposition technique is proposed, which suggests a structural break at the end of the 1970s. Measures of R&D activity, education expenditures and literacy as growth related indicators depict a spatial pattern that is consistent with the Eastern shift of the world economic center of gravity.
This paper reviews arguments and evidence on the impact of globalization on the environment, then... more This paper reviews arguments and evidence on the impact of globalization on the environment, then presents evidence on production and international trade flows in five heavily polluting industries for 52 countries over the period 1981-98. A new decomposition of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) according to geographical origin reveals a delocalization to the South for all heavily polluting industries except nonferrous metals that exhibits South-North delocalization in accordance with factor-abundance driven response to a reduction in trade barriers. Panel estimation of a gravity model of bilateral trade on the same data set reveals that, on average, polluting industries have higher barriers-to-trade costs (except non-ferrous metals with significantly lower barriers to trade) and little evidence of delocalization in response to a North-South regulatory gap.
... 1999). We thank Gabrielle Antille, Marc Bacchetta, and Daniel Morales for helpful suggestions... more ... 1999). We thank Gabrielle Antille, Marc Bacchetta, and Daniel Morales for helpful suggestions and Rolando Alcala, Anne Chatton, Samuel Guillet and José Ramirez for excellent research assistance. Page 2. 1 1. Introduction ...
This paper makes the link between the literature on CO2 per capita emission convergence and the l... more This paper makes the link between the literature on CO2 per capita emission convergence and the literature on the impact of trade on income per capita convergence. It includes more coun- tries than the recent papers on emission convergence and applies the methodology introduced by Ben David (2000) to take into ac- count trade as a conditionning factor. Overall, it con…rms that there is no sign of convergence at the world wide level but conver- gence between OECD countries. Trade appears to be a positive contributing factor, although it is di¢ cult to disentangle its in‡u- ence from the impact of income per capita similarity or geographic proximity.
What is the geographical distribution of CO2 emissions? This column identifies the Earth's "pollu... more What is the geographical distribution of CO2 emissions? This column identifies the Earth's "polluting centre of gravity" since 1970. It is heading east faster than GDP, which suggests that Asian production is getting more carbon-intensive.
Energy Economics, 2014
ABSTRACT We identify the driving factors of manufacturing activity across Chinese provinces with ... more ABSTRACT We identify the driving factors of manufacturing activity across Chinese provinces with a particular focus on energy endowments. A model of production location is estimated, including both comparative advantage and economic geography determinants. The data set used consists of a panel of 28 Chinese provinces and 12 manufacturing industries over the period 1999-2009. Results confirm the relative importance of energy endowments. We find that larger energy endowments are significantly correlated with larger production of energy-intensive sectors. Disaggregating across energy carriers shows that coal exhibits the strongest impact. These results are robust across alternatives.
Analyzing the Economics, 2004
Economic Impact of EU Membership on Entrants, 2001
The Controversies and the Evidence, 1984
We use a Ricardo-Viner model to study the determinants of the supply of outmigration in developin... more We use a Ricardo-Viner model to study the determinants of the supply of outmigration in developing countries in a model with neterogenous households. We assume that heterogeneity and migration costs prevent households from total migration.
This paper reviews arguments and evidence on the impact of globalization on the environment, then... more This paper reviews arguments and evidence on the impact of globalization on the environment, then presents evidence on production and international trade flows in five heavily polluting industries for 52 countries over the period 1981-98. A new decomposition of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) according to geographical origin reveals a delocalization to the South for all heavily polluting industries except non-ferrous metals that exhibits South-North delocalization in accordance with factor-abundance driven response to a reduction in trade barriers. Panel estimation of a gravity model of bilateral trade on the same data set reveals that, on average, polluting industries have higher barriers-to-trade costs (except non-ferrous metals with significantly lower barriers to trade) and little evidence of delocalization in response to a North-South regulatory gap.
Revue d'économie du développement, 2012
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper contributes to the debate on the existence of pollution haven effects by systematicall... more This paper contributes to the debate on the existence of pollution haven effects by systematically measuring the pollution content of trade (measured by the pollution content of imports (PCI)) and decomposing it into three components: a 'deep' component (i.e. unrelated to the environmental debate but including variables traditionally present in the gravity model) and two components (factor endowments and environmental policies) that occupy centerstage in the debate on trade and the environment. The decomposition is carried out for 1986-88 for an extensive data set covering 10 pollutants, 48 countries and 79 ISIC 4-digit sectors. Illustrative decompositions presented for 3 of the 10 pollutants in the data set indicate a significant pollution haven effect which increases the PCI of the North because of stricter environmental regulations in the North. At the same time, the factor endowment effect decreases the PCI of the North as the North is relatively wellendowed in capital and pollution-intensive activities are also capital intensive. On a global scale, because the bulk of trade is intra-regional with a high North-North share, these effects are small relative to the 'deep' determinants of the worldwide pollution content of trade. In sum, although the impact has been stronger on vertical (North-South) trade flows, differences in factor endowments and environmental policies have only marginally affected the pollution content of world trade during the 1986-88 period.
Uploads
Papers by Jean-Marie Grether