Oluchi Omai
Mr. Oluchi Omai is a researcher and a writer, a graduate of the Statistical Science Department of the University of Calabar, Calabar. He is a Nigerian, from Abia State to be precise. Born on the 26th of April, 1987. He is also an Actor, a scriptwriter and the Director of De Thrillers Theatre/Film Productions.
Supervisors: Advisor
Phone: 08064730739
Address: 31 Ndidem Usang Road, Calabar, Cross river State
Supervisors: Advisor
Phone: 08064730739
Address: 31 Ndidem Usang Road, Calabar, Cross river State
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Many great ideas never got to the labour ward, they only stopped in the pregnancy stage and there no celebration is called for because none is ever called a son that was not born.
People celebrate the arrival of the baby and not just the pregnancy.
In the pursuit of purpose, the execution of ideas is cherished more than mere knowledge of the purpose and strategic plans drawn for it.
This research work was aimed at selecting the best time series model for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Three times series trend models namely Linear, Quadratic and the Simple Exponential Models were fitted to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data obtained from the national bureau of statistics website covering the period from January 1995 to December 2018. The fitted models were subjected to some diagnostic checks including three measures of accuracy (Mean Absolute Percentage error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation), and Mean Square Deviation (MSD)), the Thiel’s inequality and the diagnostic graph. The measure of accuracy for the simple exponential model was found to be the least with Mean Absolute Percetage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Deviation (MAD) and Mean Square Deviation (MSD) values at 3.9096, 2.8939 and 17.0068 respectively. A further comparison with Theil’s inequality coefficient shows that the simple exponential model was consistently better than the linear and the quadratic models, which was further justified using the diagnostic graphs. The fitted model given by was then used for forecasting values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2018 to 2019 and it was observed that the fitted values were comparable with the actual values for the first three months.
Many great ideas never got to the labour ward, they only stopped in the pregnancy stage and there no celebration is called for because none is ever called a son that was not born.
People celebrate the arrival of the baby and not just the pregnancy.
In the pursuit of purpose, the execution of ideas is cherished more than mere knowledge of the purpose and strategic plans drawn for it.
This research work was aimed at selecting the best time series model for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Three times series trend models namely Linear, Quadratic and the Simple Exponential Models were fitted to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data obtained from the national bureau of statistics website covering the period from January 1995 to December 2018. The fitted models were subjected to some diagnostic checks including three measures of accuracy (Mean Absolute Percentage error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation), and Mean Square Deviation (MSD)), the Thiel’s inequality and the diagnostic graph. The measure of accuracy for the simple exponential model was found to be the least with Mean Absolute Percetage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Deviation (MAD) and Mean Square Deviation (MSD) values at 3.9096, 2.8939 and 17.0068 respectively. A further comparison with Theil’s inequality coefficient shows that the simple exponential model was consistently better than the linear and the quadratic models, which was further justified using the diagnostic graphs. The fitted model given by was then used for forecasting values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2018 to 2019 and it was observed that the fitted values were comparable with the actual values for the first three months.