Michael Maness

University of Maryland, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Graduate Student

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Michael Maness is a PhD candidate at the University of Maryland studying transportation engineering and planning. My research interests are primarily in the methodology and application of behavioral modeling in transportation. My dissertation studies the implications of limited social network data on discrete choice models of social interactions. I have also performed and participated on research projects in car ownership modeling, stated choice experiment design, and active traffic management strategies. I was a graduate research fellow at FHWA's Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center and am a three-time Eisenhower Fellow and a former Bridge to the Doctorate Fellow.
Supervisors: Cinzia Cirillo

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Measuring Future Vehicle Preferences: Stated Preference Survey Approach with Dynamic Attributes and Multiyear Time Frame

The culmination of new vehicle technology, greater competition in energy markets, and government ... more The culmination of new vehicle technology, greater competition in energy markets, and government policies to reduce pollution and energy consumption will result in changes to the personal vehicle marketplace. To measure future vehicle preferences, stated preference (SP) surveys have been the dominant approach. Prior research has been limited to a narrow focus of accelerating respondents' hypothetical next vehicle purchasing decisions without mimicking the influence of the marketplace on these decisions. To explore marketplace influences, this study proposes to use a novel SP survey design to analyze vehicle purchasing behavior in a dynamically changing marketplace through the use of dynamic attributes and a 6-year hypothetical time window. The survey is divided into three parts: household characteristics, current vehicles, and SP. The SP section presents respondents with various hypothetical scenarios annually over a future 6-year period with one of three experiments. The experiments correspond to changing vehicle technology, fueling options, and taxation policy. Between scenarios, the vehicle, fuel, and policy attributes dynamically change to mimic marketplace conditions. A pilot web-based survey was performed during fall 2010. Mixed logit models showed that individuals responded in behaviorally realistic ways and that the survey design allowed for estimation of important parameters in vehicle choice. Respondents were able to depreciate their vehicles over the 5-year hypothetical period and place trade-offs on the features of vehicles and fuel types. The insights from the survey are also used to suggest refinements to the survey methods and areas for further research.

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Bicycle Ownership in the United States: Empirical Analysis of Regional Differences

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting, Jan 1, 2012

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Modeling Vehicle Ownership Decisions in Maryland: A Preliminary Stated Preference Survey and Model

In the near future, the culmination of new vehicle technologies, greater competition in the energ... more In the near future, the culmination of new vehicle technologies, greater competition in the energy markets, and government policies to fight pollution and reduce energy consumption will result in changes in the United States' vehicle marketplace. This project proposes to create a stated preference (SP) survey along with discrete choice models to predict future demand for electric, hybrid, alternative fuel, and gasoline vehicles. The survey is divided into three parts: socioeconomics, revealed preference (RP), and SP sections. The socioeconomics portion asks respondents about themselves and their households. The RP portion asks about household's current vehicles. The SP section presents respondents with various hypothetical scenarios over a future five-year period using one of three game designs. The designs correspond to: changing vehicle technology, fuel pricing and availability, and taxation policy. With these changes to the vehicle marketplace, respondents are asked whether they will keep or replace their current vehicles and if he will purchase a new vehicle and its type. To facilitate the design and administering of the survey, a web survey framework, JULIE, was created specifically for creating stated preference surveys. A preliminary trial of the survey was conducted in September and October 2010 with a sample size of 141 respondents. Using the SP results from this preliminary trial, a multinomial logit model is used to estimate future vehicle ownership by vehicle type. The models show that the survey design allows for estimation of important parameters in vehicle choice.

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Measuring Future Vehicle Preferences: Stated Preference Survey Approach with Dynamic Attributes and Multiyear Time Frame

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Bicycle Ownership in the United States: Empirical Analysis of Regional Differences

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting, Jan 1, 2012

Download

Modeling Vehicle Ownership Decisions in Maryland: A Preliminary Stated Preference Survey and Model

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Michael Maness

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