Conference Presentations by Raul Ramirez
Fire Hazard analysis at Chapada Diamantina National Park, Brazil, 2020
Aplicación de modelos de circulación global para el estudio de las condiciones climáticas de Vene... more Aplicación de modelos de circulación global para el estudio de las condiciones climáticas de Venezuela en el Siglo XXI Bravo, Lelys (Coordinadora)
Books by Raul Ramirez
Papers by Raul Ramirez
Malaria is a parasitic infectious tropical disease that causes high mortality rates in the tropic... more Malaria is a parasitic infectious tropical disease that causes high mortality rates in the tropical belt. In Venezuela, Sucre state is considered the third state with most disease prevalence. This paper presents a hierarchical regression log-Poisson space-time model within a Bayesian approach to represent the incidence of malaria in Sucre state, Venezuela, during the period 1990-2002 in 15 municipalities of the state. For a full Bayesian modeling, the logarithm of the relative risk of the disease for each district is expressed as an additive model that includes a multiple regression with socio-economic and climatic covariates; a random effect that captures the spatial heterogeneity in the study I statistic was calculated to test the independence of the residuals of the resulting model. Finally, we verify the model fit by using the Bayesian p-value, and in most cases the selected model captures the spatial structure between the relative risks from the nearby municipalities each year. For years with a poor model fit, the t-Student distribution is used as an alternative model for the spatial local random effect with better fit to the tail behavior of the data probability distribution.
Maps by Raul Ramirez
Mapa de ubicacion geografica de las estaciones climatologicas utilizadas para el proyecto
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Conference Presentations by Raul Ramirez
Books by Raul Ramirez
Papers by Raul Ramirez
Maps by Raul Ramirez