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Mehmet Gurses

University of Central Florida, School of Politics, Security and International Affairs, Faculty Member

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Mehmet Gurses (Ph.D. in Political Science, University of North Texas, 2007) is the Jalal Talabani endowed professor and director of Kurdish Studies at the University of Central Florida. His research interests include Kurdish politics, religion and politics, ethnic and religious conflict, post-civil war peacebuilding, and post-war democratization. He is the author of Anatomy of a Civil War: Sociopolitical Impacts of the Kurdish Conflict in Turkey (University of Michigan Press, 2018) and co-editor, with David Romano and Michael Gunter, of Kurds in the Middle East: Enduring Problems and New Dynamics (Lexington Books, 2020). He has published extensively in journals including International Interactions, Defense and Peace Economics, International Studies Perspectives, Party Politics, Conflict Management and Peace Science, and Political Research Quarterly.

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Papers by Mehmet Gurses

Settling Softly: Ending war and making peace in divided societies

This paper investigates possible sociopolitical reconciliatory mechanisms to garner support for p... more This paper investigates possible sociopolitical reconciliatory
mechanisms to garner support for peacemaking in conflict-torn
societies. Building on the Kurdish question in Turkey, associated
with a four-decade-long armed conflict that has spilled over
into neighboring Syria and Iraq, we identify policies and framing
that can attract support for a political solution to the conflict.
We highlight the need for a sociopolitical reconciliatory
approach that addresses both the hopes of the warring
minority and the fears of the majority. The results from an original
nationwide survey indicate that minority demands can initially
be addressed through a ‘soft settlement,’ lying between
individual and collective rights. Our results point to the need to
relax the concept of negotiated settlement, which has become
the most frequent approach to ending internal armed conflicts
in the post-Cold War era.

Islam and the Kurds

Routledge Handbook on the Kurds, 2018

Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Negotiates Peace in Civil Wars: Does Regime Type Matter?

Journal of Global Security Studies, Apr 1, 2019

Previous research has shown that the outcome of a civil war is related to conflict duration: mili... more Previous research has shown that the outcome of a civil war is related to conflict duration: military victory by either the government or the rebels occurs early if it occurs at all, and the longer a civil war lasts, the more likely it is to end in a negotiated settlement. The models of civil war duration and outcome that have produced these findings are built on characteristics of the civil war and less on attributes of the state itself, other than where the state lies on the Polity autocracy-democracy scale. We propose that the risk of government victory versus negotiated settlement varies not only between democracies versus authoritarian regimes but across the different authoritarian regime types as identified by Geddes, Wright, and Franz. The distinguishing attributes of these regime typesdemocracy, one-party, personalist, military, monarchicalresult in variation across regime types in their ability to defeat a rebel movement, their vulnerability to being defeated by such a movement, and their willingness and ability to negotiate a peace agreement with rebel movements. Results from a series of competing risk models using the Uppsala-PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset demonstrate that how civil wars end is partly a function of the characteristics of the regime. Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Negotiates Peace in Civil Wars: Does Regime Type Matter? Research on how civil wars end has identified a number of characteristics of the civil war nation and of the conflict itself that affect whether the conflict will end in government victory, rebel victory, or a negotiated peace agreement (Mason and Fett 1996; Mason, Weingarten and Fett 1999; DeRouen and Sobek 2004; Brandt et al. 2008). Within this body of research, studies have identified discrete attributes of the regime itself that affect the duration and outcome of civil wars. Among these attributes are the quality of state institutionsi.e., whether it is a democracy,

Return To Point Zero: The Turkish-Kurdish Question and How Politics and Ideas (Re)Make Empires, Nations, and States

Turkish Studies

Kurdish Issues: Essays in Honor of Robert W. Olson

Middle East Policy, 2017

The complexities of minority rights in the European Union

The International Journal of Human Rights, 2012

The Political Economy of the Kurds of Turkey

The Political Economy of the Kurds of Turkey, 2017

In recent years, the persecution of the Kurds in the Middle East under ISIS in Iraq and Syria has... more In recent years, the persecution of the Kurds in the Middle East under ISIS in Iraq and Syria has drawn increasing attention from the international media. In this book, Veli Yadirgi analyses the socioeconomic and political structures and transformations of the Kurdish people from the Ottoman era through to the modern Turkish Republic, arguing that there is a symbiotic relationship between the Kurdish question and the de-development of the predominantly Kurdish domains, making an ideal read for historians of the region and those studying the socio-political and economic evolution of the Kurds. First outlining theoretical perspectives on Kurdish identity, socioeconomic development and the Kurdish question, Yadirgi then explores the social, economic and political origins of Ottoman Kurdistan following its annexation by the Ottomans in 1514. Finally, he deals with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and the subsequent foundation and evolution of the Kurdish question in the new Turkish R...

Ethnic Exclusion and Mobilization: The Kurdish Conflict in Turkey

Comparative Politics, 2017

Islamists and Women’s Rights: Lessons from Turkey

The Journal of the Middle East and Africa, 2015

The emergence and evolution of Islamism in Turkey, a country with a history of (secular) democrat... more The emergence and evolution of Islamism in Turkey, a country with a history of (secular) democratic practices that goes back to 1950, has been the subject of numerous scholarly works. Several studies ascribe the transformation experienced by Islamists in Turkey to their interaction with democratic institutions. These studies argue that Islamists in Turkey have become more supportive of democracy over time. Despite a significant level of support for democracy, which is viewed largely as the holding of free and fair elections, this study shows that the same cannot be said of Islamists’ attitudes toward gender equality. An analysis of the data collected by the World Values Survey (WVS) for Turkey over the last decade reveals that supporters of Islamist political parties manifest significantly more negative attitudes toward women when compared to attitudes of those who support other political parties.

Religion as a Peacemaker? Peace Duration after Ethnic Civil Wars

Politics and Religion, 2016

What role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed th... more What role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed that when warring groups share the same religion, achieving a durable peace will be easier. We test this hypothesis empirically using a large-n sample of all ethnic civil wars that began and ended between 1950 and 2006, and a measure of co-religiosity between the ethnic group in power and the main opposition group. The analysis shows that there is no positive relationship between co-religiosity and the duration of post-civil war peace, showing that sharing the same religion may not help to bring about peace following an ethnic civil war. To the contrary, the closer religious ties, the less likely it is that peace will last after the end of the conflict, and the higher the risk that conflict will recur.

Introduction: The Kurds as Barrier or Key to Democratization

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East, 2014

his edited volume contains a collection of essays from many of the most well-known, accomplished ... more his edited volume contains a collection of essays from many of the most well-known, accomplished scholars working on the Kurdish issue and questions of democratization. It is divided into four sections. Section I focuses on the Kurds and barriers to democratization and democratic deficits in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Section II, "Democracy in Divided Societies," turns to existing academic literature, theories, and examples of multiethnic societies and democratic transitions for guidance. Section III, "The Kurds and Democratization," attempts to place more emphasis on Kurdish demands and the possibilities for democratization in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. The final, fourth section of the volume draws readers' attention to the transborder nature of the Kurdish issue and how events in South, North, West, and East Kurdistan all impact each other. Contributors to the first section of the volume, "Authoritarianism and the Kurds," were asked to focus on the ways in which the Kurdish issue in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, or Syria was securitized and served to hinder democratization. All four contributors to this section were thus asked to focus a bit more on the negative side of a complex, multifaceted issue. Chapter 1, by Michael Gunter, therefore concentrates on the "deep state" in Turkey, and how until quite recently an unelected shadow state of elites in that country prevented any democratic reforms that might recognize the Kurds, return to them their rights, and truly incorporate them into the political system. Chapter 2, by Ozum Yesiltas, focuses on how Arab nationalists there viewed any compromise with the Kurds as the beginning of a slippery slope toward Kurdish secession, leading to a long history of authoritarian repression and D. Romano et al. (eds.

From War to Democracy: Transborder Kurdish Conflict and Democratization

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East, 2014

Civil war destroys human lives, frays the fabric of social trust, demolishes economic infrastruct... more Civil war destroys human lives, frays the fabric of social trust, demolishes economic infrastructure, disrupts production and trade, and threatens external markets.1 This destruction “leaves in its wake a post-conflict environment that is not conducive to the emergence of democratic institutions or civic culture.”2 Nonetheless, as several studies have pointed out, the majority of civil wars that occurred in the post-World War II era resulted in an improvement in the level of democracy.3 Further, how a war ends has substantial impact on the post-war democratization. For example, inconclusive and costly wars may lead warring parties to seek a negotiated settlement from which a more inclusive and democratic system can emerge.4 Additionally, the rigidities and complexities involved in ethnic civil wars make these conflicts harder to resolve than ideological wars and therefore end in a negotiated settlement. Ethnic affiliations as “powerful, permeative, passionate, and pervasive” tools shape both political and economic activities in divided societies, making democratization harder to negotiate and sustain.5 Civil war hardens and strengthens ethnic divisions, lowering the chances of reaching a negotiated peace that could lay the groundwork for a peaceful and potentially more democratic coexistence.6

Peace is Possible: Toward a Better Understanding of Ethnic Reconciliation

Wealth and Regime Formation: Social and Economic Origins of the Change toward Democracy

Durable Peace After Civil Wars? Civil War Outcomes and the Duration of Peace

Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcomes

Political Research Quarterly, 2014

The literature on the transnational dimension of civil wars points to transnational ethnic kin as... more The literature on the transnational dimension of civil wars points to transnational ethnic kin as an important catalyst that initiates and sustains civil wars. Ethnic ties that transcend national boundaries, these studies argue, intensify the conflict by providing sanctuaries as well as human and material resources to the rebels. In this study, I argue that the same transborder ethnic ties make it more difficult for the government to achieve a decisive victory and contribute to outcomes more favorable to rebels. These networks can help create a more balanced relationship between an ethnic group and a previously antagonistic state by increasing the political, economic, and military costs of repression for the government. An analysis of ethnic civil wars starting and ending between 1950 and 2006 demonstrates that civil wars fought by ethnically mobilized rebel groups are more likely to be negotiated and settled in favor of rebels who have ethnic kin in a neighboring country.

From War to Democracy

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East, 2014

Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post-Civil-War Democracy

Social Science Quarterly, 2008

Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post-civil-war democratization... more Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post-civil-war democratization. We employ an expected utility model to argue that the attributes of the civil war that lead to balanced power relations between the warring parties lead to higher levels of postconflict democracy. Methods. We estimate a series of OLS regression models with change in the level of democracy (from the prewar level to five and ten years after the conflict ended) as the dependent variable. Results. Civil wars that end in negotiated settlements are more likely to experience higher levels of democratization than civil wars that end in military victory by either side. Identity-based conflicts lead to lower levels of democratization while previous democratic experience seems to decrease post-civil-war democratization. We find no support for the argument that high war costs and U.N. peacekeeping forces produce higher levels of democracy. Conclusions. Civil war may lead to more inclusive polities if it serves to even the balance of power between contending groups in the nation. Power balance is more likely to bring about more democratic polities, especially where power sharing is formalized in a negotiated settlement. Research on civil wars has gone beyond an initial concern with attributes of a nation that put it at risk of civil war onset (Fearon and Laitin, 2003; Sambanis, 2004) to the analysis of factors that explain the duration and outcome of civil wars (

Elites, Oil, and Democratization: A Survival Analysis*

Social Science Quarterly, 2011

Objective. This study explores the relationship between natural resource wealth, most notably oil... more Objective. This study explores the relationship between natural resource wealth, most notably oil, and democratic survival. I contend that natural resources help sustain democratic regimes by easing social conflict between the rich and the poor. As such, the availability of abundant natural resource revenues alleviates the elites' fear of redistribution of wealth, thereby stabilizing the regime. Methods. I estimate a series of survival analyses for the period between 1960 and 1999. Results. Elite support and oil wealth independently help stabilize democracies. Conclusions. The results bring the widely held views on the link between oil and democracy into question and invite further scrutiny. A large number of studies have examined the link between natural resources (most notably oil-generated wealth) and democracy. These studies tend to delineate the detrimental effects of resource abundance on economic and political outcomes. The ''resource curse'' argument that is outlined in existing literature links natural resource wealth with authoritarian regimes and economic stagnation. The proponents of this view maintain that the availability of revenues generated from exporting natural resources provides incentives for authoritarian tendencies. Leaders with significant amounts of wealth at their discretion can buy political support, easing social pressure for reform, and/or use the surplus revenues to maintain a coercive capability to repress demands for political change (e.g., Mahdavy, 1970; Ross, 2001; Boix, 2003; Jensen and Wantchekon, 2004). Nevertheless, the emergence of natural-resource-rich democracies (e.g., Mexico, Chile, Indonesia) in the aftermath of the Cold War coupled with those democracies that have proven durable despite (or because of) substantial natural resources (e.g., Botswana, Trinidad and Tobago) have raised a more complex view of the relationship between natural resource wealth and the endurance of democracy. An increasing number of studies have questioned the validity of the resource curse argument. Several richly detailed case studies providing evidence for the emergence of resource-rich democratic regimes argue that

Settling Softly: Ending war and making peace in divided societies

This paper investigates possible sociopolitical reconciliatory mechanisms to garner support for p... more This paper investigates possible sociopolitical reconciliatory
mechanisms to garner support for peacemaking in conflict-torn
societies. Building on the Kurdish question in Turkey, associated
with a four-decade-long armed conflict that has spilled over
into neighboring Syria and Iraq, we identify policies and framing
that can attract support for a political solution to the conflict.
We highlight the need for a sociopolitical reconciliatory
approach that addresses both the hopes of the warring
minority and the fears of the majority. The results from an original
nationwide survey indicate that minority demands can initially
be addressed through a ‘soft settlement,’ lying between
individual and collective rights. Our results point to the need to
relax the concept of negotiated settlement, which has become
the most frequent approach to ending internal armed conflicts
in the post-Cold War era.

Islam and the Kurds

Routledge Handbook on the Kurds, 2018

Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Negotiates Peace in Civil Wars: Does Regime Type Matter?

Journal of Global Security Studies, Apr 1, 2019

Previous research has shown that the outcome of a civil war is related to conflict duration: mili... more Previous research has shown that the outcome of a civil war is related to conflict duration: military victory by either the government or the rebels occurs early if it occurs at all, and the longer a civil war lasts, the more likely it is to end in a negotiated settlement. The models of civil war duration and outcome that have produced these findings are built on characteristics of the civil war and less on attributes of the state itself, other than where the state lies on the Polity autocracy-democracy scale. We propose that the risk of government victory versus negotiated settlement varies not only between democracies versus authoritarian regimes but across the different authoritarian regime types as identified by Geddes, Wright, and Franz. The distinguishing attributes of these regime typesdemocracy, one-party, personalist, military, monarchicalresult in variation across regime types in their ability to defeat a rebel movement, their vulnerability to being defeated by such a movement, and their willingness and ability to negotiate a peace agreement with rebel movements. Results from a series of competing risk models using the Uppsala-PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset demonstrate that how civil wars end is partly a function of the characteristics of the regime. Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Negotiates Peace in Civil Wars: Does Regime Type Matter? Research on how civil wars end has identified a number of characteristics of the civil war nation and of the conflict itself that affect whether the conflict will end in government victory, rebel victory, or a negotiated peace agreement (Mason and Fett 1996; Mason, Weingarten and Fett 1999; DeRouen and Sobek 2004; Brandt et al. 2008). Within this body of research, studies have identified discrete attributes of the regime itself that affect the duration and outcome of civil wars. Among these attributes are the quality of state institutionsi.e., whether it is a democracy,

Return To Point Zero: The Turkish-Kurdish Question and How Politics and Ideas (Re)Make Empires, Nations, and States

Turkish Studies

Kurdish Issues: Essays in Honor of Robert W. Olson

Middle East Policy, 2017

The complexities of minority rights in the European Union

The International Journal of Human Rights, 2012

The Political Economy of the Kurds of Turkey

The Political Economy of the Kurds of Turkey, 2017

In recent years, the persecution of the Kurds in the Middle East under ISIS in Iraq and Syria has... more In recent years, the persecution of the Kurds in the Middle East under ISIS in Iraq and Syria has drawn increasing attention from the international media. In this book, Veli Yadirgi analyses the socioeconomic and political structures and transformations of the Kurdish people from the Ottoman era through to the modern Turkish Republic, arguing that there is a symbiotic relationship between the Kurdish question and the de-development of the predominantly Kurdish domains, making an ideal read for historians of the region and those studying the socio-political and economic evolution of the Kurds. First outlining theoretical perspectives on Kurdish identity, socioeconomic development and the Kurdish question, Yadirgi then explores the social, economic and political origins of Ottoman Kurdistan following its annexation by the Ottomans in 1514. Finally, he deals with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and the subsequent foundation and evolution of the Kurdish question in the new Turkish R...

Ethnic Exclusion and Mobilization: The Kurdish Conflict in Turkey

Comparative Politics, 2017

Islamists and Women’s Rights: Lessons from Turkey

The Journal of the Middle East and Africa, 2015

The emergence and evolution of Islamism in Turkey, a country with a history of (secular) democrat... more The emergence and evolution of Islamism in Turkey, a country with a history of (secular) democratic practices that goes back to 1950, has been the subject of numerous scholarly works. Several studies ascribe the transformation experienced by Islamists in Turkey to their interaction with democratic institutions. These studies argue that Islamists in Turkey have become more supportive of democracy over time. Despite a significant level of support for democracy, which is viewed largely as the holding of free and fair elections, this study shows that the same cannot be said of Islamists’ attitudes toward gender equality. An analysis of the data collected by the World Values Survey (WVS) for Turkey over the last decade reveals that supporters of Islamist political parties manifest significantly more negative attitudes toward women when compared to attitudes of those who support other political parties.

Religion as a Peacemaker? Peace Duration after Ethnic Civil Wars

Politics and Religion, 2016

What role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed th... more What role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed that when warring groups share the same religion, achieving a durable peace will be easier. We test this hypothesis empirically using a large-n sample of all ethnic civil wars that began and ended between 1950 and 2006, and a measure of co-religiosity between the ethnic group in power and the main opposition group. The analysis shows that there is no positive relationship between co-religiosity and the duration of post-civil war peace, showing that sharing the same religion may not help to bring about peace following an ethnic civil war. To the contrary, the closer religious ties, the less likely it is that peace will last after the end of the conflict, and the higher the risk that conflict will recur.

Introduction: The Kurds as Barrier or Key to Democratization

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East, 2014

his edited volume contains a collection of essays from many of the most well-known, accomplished ... more his edited volume contains a collection of essays from many of the most well-known, accomplished scholars working on the Kurdish issue and questions of democratization. It is divided into four sections. Section I focuses on the Kurds and barriers to democratization and democratic deficits in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Section II, "Democracy in Divided Societies," turns to existing academic literature, theories, and examples of multiethnic societies and democratic transitions for guidance. Section III, "The Kurds and Democratization," attempts to place more emphasis on Kurdish demands and the possibilities for democratization in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. The final, fourth section of the volume draws readers' attention to the transborder nature of the Kurdish issue and how events in South, North, West, and East Kurdistan all impact each other. Contributors to the first section of the volume, "Authoritarianism and the Kurds," were asked to focus on the ways in which the Kurdish issue in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, or Syria was securitized and served to hinder democratization. All four contributors to this section were thus asked to focus a bit more on the negative side of a complex, multifaceted issue. Chapter 1, by Michael Gunter, therefore concentrates on the "deep state" in Turkey, and how until quite recently an unelected shadow state of elites in that country prevented any democratic reforms that might recognize the Kurds, return to them their rights, and truly incorporate them into the political system. Chapter 2, by Ozum Yesiltas, focuses on how Arab nationalists there viewed any compromise with the Kurds as the beginning of a slippery slope toward Kurdish secession, leading to a long history of authoritarian repression and D. Romano et al. (eds.

From War to Democracy: Transborder Kurdish Conflict and Democratization

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East, 2014

Civil war destroys human lives, frays the fabric of social trust, demolishes economic infrastruct... more Civil war destroys human lives, frays the fabric of social trust, demolishes economic infrastructure, disrupts production and trade, and threatens external markets.1 This destruction “leaves in its wake a post-conflict environment that is not conducive to the emergence of democratic institutions or civic culture.”2 Nonetheless, as several studies have pointed out, the majority of civil wars that occurred in the post-World War II era resulted in an improvement in the level of democracy.3 Further, how a war ends has substantial impact on the post-war democratization. For example, inconclusive and costly wars may lead warring parties to seek a negotiated settlement from which a more inclusive and democratic system can emerge.4 Additionally, the rigidities and complexities involved in ethnic civil wars make these conflicts harder to resolve than ideological wars and therefore end in a negotiated settlement. Ethnic affiliations as “powerful, permeative, passionate, and pervasive” tools shape both political and economic activities in divided societies, making democratization harder to negotiate and sustain.5 Civil war hardens and strengthens ethnic divisions, lowering the chances of reaching a negotiated peace that could lay the groundwork for a peaceful and potentially more democratic coexistence.6

Peace is Possible: Toward a Better Understanding of Ethnic Reconciliation

Wealth and Regime Formation: Social and Economic Origins of the Change toward Democracy

Durable Peace After Civil Wars? Civil War Outcomes and the Duration of Peace

Transnational Ethnic Kin and Civil War Outcomes

Political Research Quarterly, 2014

The literature on the transnational dimension of civil wars points to transnational ethnic kin as... more The literature on the transnational dimension of civil wars points to transnational ethnic kin as an important catalyst that initiates and sustains civil wars. Ethnic ties that transcend national boundaries, these studies argue, intensify the conflict by providing sanctuaries as well as human and material resources to the rebels. In this study, I argue that the same transborder ethnic ties make it more difficult for the government to achieve a decisive victory and contribute to outcomes more favorable to rebels. These networks can help create a more balanced relationship between an ethnic group and a previously antagonistic state by increasing the political, economic, and military costs of repression for the government. An analysis of ethnic civil wars starting and ending between 1950 and 2006 demonstrates that civil wars fought by ethnically mobilized rebel groups are more likely to be negotiated and settled in favor of rebels who have ethnic kin in a neighboring country.

From War to Democracy

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East

Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East, 2014

Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post-Civil-War Democracy

Social Science Quarterly, 2008

Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post-civil-war democratization... more Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post-civil-war democratization. We employ an expected utility model to argue that the attributes of the civil war that lead to balanced power relations between the warring parties lead to higher levels of postconflict democracy. Methods. We estimate a series of OLS regression models with change in the level of democracy (from the prewar level to five and ten years after the conflict ended) as the dependent variable. Results. Civil wars that end in negotiated settlements are more likely to experience higher levels of democratization than civil wars that end in military victory by either side. Identity-based conflicts lead to lower levels of democratization while previous democratic experience seems to decrease post-civil-war democratization. We find no support for the argument that high war costs and U.N. peacekeeping forces produce higher levels of democracy. Conclusions. Civil war may lead to more inclusive polities if it serves to even the balance of power between contending groups in the nation. Power balance is more likely to bring about more democratic polities, especially where power sharing is formalized in a negotiated settlement. Research on civil wars has gone beyond an initial concern with attributes of a nation that put it at risk of civil war onset (Fearon and Laitin, 2003; Sambanis, 2004) to the analysis of factors that explain the duration and outcome of civil wars (

Elites, Oil, and Democratization: A Survival Analysis*

Social Science Quarterly, 2011

Objective. This study explores the relationship between natural resource wealth, most notably oil... more Objective. This study explores the relationship between natural resource wealth, most notably oil, and democratic survival. I contend that natural resources help sustain democratic regimes by easing social conflict between the rich and the poor. As such, the availability of abundant natural resource revenues alleviates the elites' fear of redistribution of wealth, thereby stabilizing the regime. Methods. I estimate a series of survival analyses for the period between 1960 and 1999. Results. Elite support and oil wealth independently help stabilize democracies. Conclusions. The results bring the widely held views on the link between oil and democracy into question and invite further scrutiny. A large number of studies have examined the link between natural resources (most notably oil-generated wealth) and democracy. These studies tend to delineate the detrimental effects of resource abundance on economic and political outcomes. The ''resource curse'' argument that is outlined in existing literature links natural resource wealth with authoritarian regimes and economic stagnation. The proponents of this view maintain that the availability of revenues generated from exporting natural resources provides incentives for authoritarian tendencies. Leaders with significant amounts of wealth at their discretion can buy political support, easing social pressure for reform, and/or use the surplus revenues to maintain a coercive capability to repress demands for political change (e.g., Mahdavy, 1970; Ross, 2001; Boix, 2003; Jensen and Wantchekon, 2004). Nevertheless, the emergence of natural-resource-rich democracies (e.g., Mexico, Chile, Indonesia) in the aftermath of the Cold War coupled with those democracies that have proven durable despite (or because of) substantial natural resources (e.g., Botswana, Trinidad and Tobago) have raised a more complex view of the relationship between natural resource wealth and the endurance of democracy. An increasing number of studies have questioned the validity of the resource curse argument. Several richly detailed case studies providing evidence for the emergence of resource-rich democratic regimes argue that