Sjoerd Bakker
In my PhD project 'Measuring Expectations of Hydrogen Energy Systems', I study the dynamics of expectations in technological development. Special attention is paid to expectations within and amongst technological communities and how these communities continuously negotiate the future of hydrogen systems.
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Papers by Sjoerd Bakker
We argue that prototypes are used by firms in their internal search process towards new designs and at the same time as means of communicating technological expectations to competitors and outsiders. In both senses, prototypes can be taken as indicators of design paths in the ongoing search process of an industry.
We analyzed the designs of prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars from the 1970s till 2008. A database is compiled of 224 prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars, listing the car's manufacturer, year of construction, hydrogen conversion technology, fuel cell type, and capacity of its hydrogen storage system. The analysis shows to what extent one design gained dominance and which strategies were adopted by the firms in their search processes.
We conclude that indeed a dominant prototyping design has emerged: the fuel cell combined with high pressure gaseous storage. Actual and expected performance acted as selection criterion, but so did regulation and strategic behaviour of the firms. Especially imitation dynamics, with industry leaders and followers, is a major explanatory factor. Our main theoretical claim is that the selection of a dominant prototyping design is based on an interaction of sets of expectations about future performance of technological components and regulatory pressure that results in herding behaviour of the firms.
The competition between the two designs takes place on the level of firms as well as on a global, industry-wide, level. In our case study we describe the competition since the 1990s and show how attention and expectations for both options have alternated in three phases. High hopes and subsequent disappointments of component technologies were main drivers for the alternations. On the local level there is room for multiple options at the same time, but on the global level attention and expectations seem much more focussed on either the one or the other.
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We argue that prototypes are used by firms in their internal search process towards new designs and at the same time as means of communicating technological expectations to competitors and outsiders. In both senses, prototypes can be taken as indicators of design paths in the ongoing search process of an industry.
We analyzed the designs of prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars from the 1970s till 2008. A database is compiled of 224 prototypes of hydrogen passenger cars, listing the car's manufacturer, year of construction, hydrogen conversion technology, fuel cell type, and capacity of its hydrogen storage system. The analysis shows to what extent one design gained dominance and which strategies were adopted by the firms in their search processes.
We conclude that indeed a dominant prototyping design has emerged: the fuel cell combined with high pressure gaseous storage. Actual and expected performance acted as selection criterion, but so did regulation and strategic behaviour of the firms. Especially imitation dynamics, with industry leaders and followers, is a major explanatory factor. Our main theoretical claim is that the selection of a dominant prototyping design is based on an interaction of sets of expectations about future performance of technological components and regulatory pressure that results in herding behaviour of the firms.
The competition between the two designs takes place on the level of firms as well as on a global, industry-wide, level. In our case study we describe the competition since the 1990s and show how attention and expectations for both options have alternated in three phases. High hopes and subsequent disappointments of component technologies were main drivers for the alternations. On the local level there is room for multiple options at the same time, but on the global level attention and expectations seem much more focussed on either the one or the other.
2