Papers by Sergey Sukhankin
This article examines Russia’s changing approach regarding the role and place of non-western acto... more This article examines Russia’s changing approach regarding the role and place of non-western actors in the Arctic. The outbreak of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has exacerbated political and economic tensions between Moscow and its Western counterparts, seriously undermining Arctic cooperation. Consequently, Russia has looked for alternatives to Western partners in the Arctic. China occupies a special place, but Beijing’s economic might and growing military ambitions preclude Moscow from considering China its only partner in the Arctic. Accordingly, Russia is actively trying to engage other partners from BRICS and G-20 platforms – such as India, Brazil, South Korea, and Singapore – who, in addition to foreign direct investment, could contribute expertise and unique competences to regional development. Yet, cooperation with these partners, while lucrative and promising in theory, cannot replace what Russia has lost by destroying its traditional ties with other Arctic nations. While some actors (such as Brazil) have only limited interest in the Arctic, others (such as India, South Korea, and Singapore) will likely abstain from comprehensive cooperation because of the economic and geopolitical risks posed by Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and the prospect of secondary sanctions.
Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 caused a series of economic and geopoli... more Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 caused a series of economic and geopolitical shocks that have jolted the world’s economy and security. However, the Western approach to punishing Russia’s aggression through economic sanctions is flawed, and so far, has failed to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Western countries have overestimated the transformative power of the free market economy. The West willingly made Russia its largest supplier of commodities and materials and expected it to follow the path of other previously totalitarian regimes – such as Japan, Germany, and Italy – and become a “normal” European country. Instead, Russia has reversed course and is now a militarizing authoritarian power.
Today, Russia holds dominant global positions in natural resources and commodities including hydrocarbons, foods, critical metals, and fertilizers. This paper examines how Russia’s exports, especially in agriculture (grains and fertilizers), critical minerals (uranium, titanium, nickel, aluminium), and coal, are fuelling the Kremlin’s war machine in Ukraine, while also challenging and undermining the global financial-economic architecture and established principles of international trade.
The West’s reliance on Russian goods and commodities gives Putin crucial leverage, while exposing their economies to the potential of economic blackmail from Russia. For Canada, this presents a historic opportunity to supplant Russian exports with Canadian goods and commodities.
The paper’s key conclusions include:
• Despite Russia’s seemingly strong competitive advantages, its economy is now feeling the strain of the sanctions imposed following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its ongoing rift with the West. Russia’s attempt to re-orientate towards Indo-Pacific markets has resulted in lower profits, a need to redirect logistics, and increased dependence on China, which can now determine the conditions of trade.
• Russia is a major global supplier of grains and fertilizers. Moscow can and will use this fact as a geopolitical weapon to redirect its exports to so-called “friendlycountries” and to create artificial shortages in countries of the Global South. Such shortages could lead to regional political destabilization and ultimately harm the West.
• The situation with critical metals is complex. Critical minerals were excluded from the economic sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022. However, the US and the UK introduced sanctions on them this year. Weaning the West off some categories of Russian critical metals (e.g., titanium and nickel) will take time – and political will. For other critical minerals (e.g., uranium) Russia is likely to implement a broad range of measures that will make it harder for the West to diversify its supplies. Further, in a bid to overcome the pressure of sanctions, Russia will intensify its integration with China by transferring parts of the production cycle to this country.
• Russia’s coal industry is currently one of the Putin regime’s top cash cows. However, the cumulative effect of Western sanctions, decreasing coal consumption in Europe, and protective barriers erected by Russia’s Asia-based top customers have effectively made coal production in Russia economically unsustainable.
It’s clear that importers of Russian goods and commodities have made a bargain with the devil. They simply cannot afford to continue to rely on rogue nations that violate human rights and international law.
With Russia now a pariah to many democratic nations, Canada has a unique and historic opportunity to capitalize on the situation. Canada’s vast resources – comparable to those of Russia’s – position it well to supply the needs of Russia’s former clients.
There are many reasons to choose Canada, including its reliability as a supplier, its support for democracy, its peaceful foreign policy, and its support of free market economies. It also adheres to the environmental pillar of the Triple Bottom Line (TBL) – which makes its exploration and production methods commensurate with world’s highest standards. Canada’s stable political tradition also stands in stark contract with Russia’s descent into authoritarianism.
Waiting for Russia to “change” is a dubious proposition. Now is the perfect time for Russia’s importing partners to forge stronger economic ties with Canada. At the same time, Canada needs to be open for business. The fate of the free world depends on Canadian resources and goods reaching its strategic partners. This is truly a historical opportunity for Canada.
The recent negotiations between Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Olaf Scholz in Astana have underscored ... more The recent negotiations between Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Olaf Scholz in Astana have underscored the increasing interest of Western economies in Kazakhstan’s abundant natural resources. The country is richly endowed with strategic minerals, which could provide a substantial counterbalance to the dominance of China and Russia in the global supply chain, a situation that presents various economic and geopolitical challenges for Western nations. Nonetheless, in spite of its wealth in natural resources, Kazakhstan’s significant dependency on China and Russia complicates its potential role in meeting the West’s growing demand for strategic minerals. It is imperative that Western countries develop a concrete strategy that delineates specific steps to assist Kazakhstan in its transition from an overwhelming reliance on hydrocarbons to a more diversified export profile that includes strategic minerals. Absent such initiatives, it will be exceedingly difficult for Kazakhstan to position itself as a viable alternative to both China and Russia.
Russia continues to conduct misinformation campaigns against Europe. As its war in Ukraine contin... more Russia continues to conduct misinformation campaigns against Europe. As its war in Ukraine continues and Europeans become tired of the prolonged conflict, fewer people will be engaged and thus more susceptible to disinformation coming from Russia.
Russia’s current disinformation campaign revolves around three key ideas: the spread of anti-Ukrainian agendas, anti-EU themes and narratives, and the glorification of Russia, its military-political leadership, diplomacy, and economic “achievements.”
Ordinary people already see the problems within European society that the European Union needs to solve, and it will only take a slight push from Russia to spur discontent among vulnerable populations against their governments’ shortcomings.
The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has been expanding its activities in Africa, including aiding i... more The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has been expanding its activities in Africa, including aiding in Moscow’s recruitment of locals for its paramilitary needs through religious belief.
African students working and living in Russia under the guise of reconstructing ROC monasteries in Ryazan oblast are reportedly joining the Russian Armed Forces to take part in Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Low living standards, limited social security, and the declining popularity of the West in Africa could become a useful tool for Moscow in expanding its influence operations in the Global South.
The Kremlin has established the Maritime Collegium of the Russian Federation, which will focus on... more The Kremlin has established the Maritime Collegium of the Russian Federation, which will focus on the preservation of Russia’s naval power, specifically in the Arctic and along the Northern Sea Route.
International cooperation in the Arctic and China’s central role are significant components of this new collegium, as Russia seeks to strengthen defense and military partnerships to form a “polycentric world.”
Nikolai Patrushev’s appointment as head of the collegium and the continued stagnation of the Russian economy might result in Moscow’s willingness to grant Beijing greater access to the Russian part of the Arctic.
Western sanctions, heavy losses in Ukraine, and short-sighted Kremlin policies have put serious s... more Western sanctions, heavy losses in Ukraine, and short-sighted Kremlin policies have put serious strain on the Russian economy, even if Moscow has managed to weather the storm in some sectors.
The Russian economy is grappling with significant structural issues, including dwindling economic reserves, labor shortages exacerbated by demographics, heavy war casualties, and mass emigration. High inflation and rampant corruption are also contributing to economic instability in Russia.
Russia’s severe labor shortages, especially in sectors critical for the military, offer a strategic lever for Ukraine and the West. Heavy losses at the front could cause Moscow to consider mass mobilization, which will place further stress on the Russian labor market and probably would trigger another wave of emigration.
More can be done to target Russia’s oil sector, as it remains the Kremlin’s main cash cow for funding the war. One option is to reconsider implementing a more stringent price cap, which Poland earlier proposed at $30 per barrel.
Shining a light on widespread disdain for Moscow’s policies and interethnic tensions within Russia—particularly involving migrant workers and non-Russian ethnic groups—could be exploited to put more pressure on the Kremlin.
The Kremlin’s focus on channeling more spending to the military-industrial complex has created an illusion of rapid economic growth. In reality, this spending has exacerbated economic problems that could lead Russia toward wider economic failures.
Facilitating Ukraine’s pressure on Russian forces at the front and in Kursk as well as implementing expanded and more targeted sanctions are crucial to intensifying economic pressure in decimating Moscow’s ability to wage war.
- On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered su... more - On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered substantial losses while stationed in Mali to combat terrorist threats in the region.
- Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the incident, demonstrating the country’s effectiveness in countering Russia’s military presence in Africa and elsewhere.
- Wagner’s defeat in Mali underscores the significant limitations of Russia’s PMCs in achieving sustained success in volatile regions like Sub-Saharan Africa due to Russia’s declining influence and increasing involvement of Ukrainian operatives.
- EU member states and other Western powers have introduced restrictive sanctions against Russia’... more - EU member states and other Western powers have introduced restrictive sanctions against Russia’s diamond-producing industry, a major contributor to the Russian economy, such as restrictions against the import of Russian diamonds directly or from other countries.
- Other diamond-producing countries, many of which are in Africa, are enthusiastic about the prospect of these sanctions opening opportunities, as Russian diamonds have heavily saturated the market in the past.
- The new sanctions are unlikely to result in the total collapse of Russia’s diamond industry. They nevertheless could further degrade the Russian economy and inflame anti-Moscow sentiments in the country’s diamond-producing, ethnically non-Russian regions.
- Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan have formed a plan for the transmission of green energy ... more - Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan have formed a plan for the transmission of green energy to the European Union via the Caspian Sea.
- The use of Caspian routes to transport energy to Europe has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent loss of access to European markets.
- The countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus hope to leverage their wealth of natural resources and advantageous geography to transform the Caspian Sea region into a major hub for satisfying Europe’s energy needs.
- The United States is closing its uranium market to Russia, a move that could have ripple effect... more - The United States is closing its uranium market to Russia, a move that could have ripple effects on other Russian industries further disrupting the struggling economy.
- Russia is expected to seek alternatives to the US market by increasing uranium exports to “friendly” countries and working with uranium-producing countries in the Global South.
- The forfeiture of the US market is an unpleasant development for Russia, but Moscow has options and will likely manage to avoid the collapse of its uranium industry.
- Moscow is pushing for BRICS to collaborate more actively in the grain trade to undermine the We... more - Moscow is pushing for BRICS to collaborate more actively in the grain trade to undermine the West’s ability to influence critical decisions, such as suppliers of grain.
- The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to strengthen economic ties between Russia and non-Western countries,
- Russia is targeting China and developing countries in the Global South to expand its grain trade and exploit the issues these countries face, including famine in Africa.
To avoid mass mobilization, Moscow has called on Russian regions to start forming “volunteer batt... more To avoid mass mobilization, Moscow has called on Russian regions to start forming “volunteer battalions” to assist and even act in place of the regular armed forces.
Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which led to protests and the spread of anti-Moscow rhetoric in 2022.
Using residents of the North Caucasus as cannon fodder in Ukraine, Moscow demonstrates little respect for the ethnically non-Russian regions and their peoples.
Russia is struggling to attract more volunteers to fight in Ukraine, and Moscow has increasingly ... more Russia is struggling to attract more volunteers to fight in Ukraine, and Moscow has increasingly turned to the outer regions for recruitment.
Such an approach has raised ethnic tensions in some regions where the volunteers are largely non-ethnic Russians, while other regions have become the darlings of Russian propagandists.
Growing combat losses and Moscow’s neglect of non-ethnic Russians are creating the foundation for greater anti-Kremlin sentiments in Siberia.
- Moscow looks to the Volga region—an ethnically non-Russian region and one of the poorest in Rus... more - Moscow looks to the Volga region—an ethnically non-Russian region and one of the poorest in Russia—for “volunteers” to fight in the war against Ukraine.
- Many of these “volunteer” battalions have experienced heavy losses along the frontlines, which the Russian government attempts to cover up and deny.
- The disproportionate use of ethnically non-Russian in “human wave” assaults have stirred tensions in the region that could boil over if the Kremlin continues to press the regions for more manpower.
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Papers by Sergey Sukhankin
Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Western countries have overestimated the transformative power of the free market economy. The West willingly made Russia its largest supplier of commodities and materials and expected it to follow the path of other previously totalitarian regimes – such as Japan, Germany, and Italy – and become a “normal” European country. Instead, Russia has reversed course and is now a militarizing authoritarian power.
Today, Russia holds dominant global positions in natural resources and commodities including hydrocarbons, foods, critical metals, and fertilizers. This paper examines how Russia’s exports, especially in agriculture (grains and fertilizers), critical minerals (uranium, titanium, nickel, aluminium), and coal, are fuelling the Kremlin’s war machine in Ukraine, while also challenging and undermining the global financial-economic architecture and established principles of international trade.
The West’s reliance on Russian goods and commodities gives Putin crucial leverage, while exposing their economies to the potential of economic blackmail from Russia. For Canada, this presents a historic opportunity to supplant Russian exports with Canadian goods and commodities.
The paper’s key conclusions include:
• Despite Russia’s seemingly strong competitive advantages, its economy is now feeling the strain of the sanctions imposed following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its ongoing rift with the West. Russia’s attempt to re-orientate towards Indo-Pacific markets has resulted in lower profits, a need to redirect logistics, and increased dependence on China, which can now determine the conditions of trade.
• Russia is a major global supplier of grains and fertilizers. Moscow can and will use this fact as a geopolitical weapon to redirect its exports to so-called “friendlycountries” and to create artificial shortages in countries of the Global South. Such shortages could lead to regional political destabilization and ultimately harm the West.
• The situation with critical metals is complex. Critical minerals were excluded from the economic sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022. However, the US and the UK introduced sanctions on them this year. Weaning the West off some categories of Russian critical metals (e.g., titanium and nickel) will take time – and political will. For other critical minerals (e.g., uranium) Russia is likely to implement a broad range of measures that will make it harder for the West to diversify its supplies. Further, in a bid to overcome the pressure of sanctions, Russia will intensify its integration with China by transferring parts of the production cycle to this country.
• Russia’s coal industry is currently one of the Putin regime’s top cash cows. However, the cumulative effect of Western sanctions, decreasing coal consumption in Europe, and protective barriers erected by Russia’s Asia-based top customers have effectively made coal production in Russia economically unsustainable.
It’s clear that importers of Russian goods and commodities have made a bargain with the devil. They simply cannot afford to continue to rely on rogue nations that violate human rights and international law.
With Russia now a pariah to many democratic nations, Canada has a unique and historic opportunity to capitalize on the situation. Canada’s vast resources – comparable to those of Russia’s – position it well to supply the needs of Russia’s former clients.
There are many reasons to choose Canada, including its reliability as a supplier, its support for democracy, its peaceful foreign policy, and its support of free market economies. It also adheres to the environmental pillar of the Triple Bottom Line (TBL) – which makes its exploration and production methods commensurate with world’s highest standards. Canada’s stable political tradition also stands in stark contract with Russia’s descent into authoritarianism.
Waiting for Russia to “change” is a dubious proposition. Now is the perfect time for Russia’s importing partners to forge stronger economic ties with Canada. At the same time, Canada needs to be open for business. The fate of the free world depends on Canadian resources and goods reaching its strategic partners. This is truly a historical opportunity for Canada.
Russia’s current disinformation campaign revolves around three key ideas: the spread of anti-Ukrainian agendas, anti-EU themes and narratives, and the glorification of Russia, its military-political leadership, diplomacy, and economic “achievements.”
Ordinary people already see the problems within European society that the European Union needs to solve, and it will only take a slight push from Russia to spur discontent among vulnerable populations against their governments’ shortcomings.
African students working and living in Russia under the guise of reconstructing ROC monasteries in Ryazan oblast are reportedly joining the Russian Armed Forces to take part in Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Low living standards, limited social security, and the declining popularity of the West in Africa could become a useful tool for Moscow in expanding its influence operations in the Global South.
International cooperation in the Arctic and China’s central role are significant components of this new collegium, as Russia seeks to strengthen defense and military partnerships to form a “polycentric world.”
Nikolai Patrushev’s appointment as head of the collegium and the continued stagnation of the Russian economy might result in Moscow’s willingness to grant Beijing greater access to the Russian part of the Arctic.
The Russian economy is grappling with significant structural issues, including dwindling economic reserves, labor shortages exacerbated by demographics, heavy war casualties, and mass emigration. High inflation and rampant corruption are also contributing to economic instability in Russia.
Russia’s severe labor shortages, especially in sectors critical for the military, offer a strategic lever for Ukraine and the West. Heavy losses at the front could cause Moscow to consider mass mobilization, which will place further stress on the Russian labor market and probably would trigger another wave of emigration.
More can be done to target Russia’s oil sector, as it remains the Kremlin’s main cash cow for funding the war. One option is to reconsider implementing a more stringent price cap, which Poland earlier proposed at $30 per barrel.
Shining a light on widespread disdain for Moscow’s policies and interethnic tensions within Russia—particularly involving migrant workers and non-Russian ethnic groups—could be exploited to put more pressure on the Kremlin.
The Kremlin’s focus on channeling more spending to the military-industrial complex has created an illusion of rapid economic growth. In reality, this spending has exacerbated economic problems that could lead Russia toward wider economic failures.
Facilitating Ukraine’s pressure on Russian forces at the front and in Kursk as well as implementing expanded and more targeted sanctions are crucial to intensifying economic pressure in decimating Moscow’s ability to wage war.
- Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the incident, demonstrating the country’s effectiveness in countering Russia’s military presence in Africa and elsewhere.
- Wagner’s defeat in Mali underscores the significant limitations of Russia’s PMCs in achieving sustained success in volatile regions like Sub-Saharan Africa due to Russia’s declining influence and increasing involvement of Ukrainian operatives.
- Other diamond-producing countries, many of which are in Africa, are enthusiastic about the prospect of these sanctions opening opportunities, as Russian diamonds have heavily saturated the market in the past.
- The new sanctions are unlikely to result in the total collapse of Russia’s diamond industry. They nevertheless could further degrade the Russian economy and inflame anti-Moscow sentiments in the country’s diamond-producing, ethnically non-Russian regions.
- The use of Caspian routes to transport energy to Europe has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent loss of access to European markets.
- The countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus hope to leverage their wealth of natural resources and advantageous geography to transform the Caspian Sea region into a major hub for satisfying Europe’s energy needs.
- Russia is expected to seek alternatives to the US market by increasing uranium exports to “friendly” countries and working with uranium-producing countries in the Global South.
- The forfeiture of the US market is an unpleasant development for Russia, but Moscow has options and will likely manage to avoid the collapse of its uranium industry.
- The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to strengthen economic ties between Russia and non-Western countries,
- Russia is targeting China and developing countries in the Global South to expand its grain trade and exploit the issues these countries face, including famine in Africa.
Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which led to protests and the spread of anti-Moscow rhetoric in 2022.
Using residents of the North Caucasus as cannon fodder in Ukraine, Moscow demonstrates little respect for the ethnically non-Russian regions and their peoples.
Such an approach has raised ethnic tensions in some regions where the volunteers are largely non-ethnic Russians, while other regions have become the darlings of Russian propagandists.
Growing combat losses and Moscow’s neglect of non-ethnic Russians are creating the foundation for greater anti-Kremlin sentiments in Siberia.
- Many of these “volunteer” battalions have experienced heavy losses along the frontlines, which the Russian government attempts to cover up and deny.
- The disproportionate use of ethnically non-Russian in “human wave” assaults have stirred tensions in the region that could boil over if the Kremlin continues to press the regions for more manpower.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Western countries have overestimated the transformative power of the free market economy. The West willingly made Russia its largest supplier of commodities and materials and expected it to follow the path of other previously totalitarian regimes – such as Japan, Germany, and Italy – and become a “normal” European country. Instead, Russia has reversed course and is now a militarizing authoritarian power.
Today, Russia holds dominant global positions in natural resources and commodities including hydrocarbons, foods, critical metals, and fertilizers. This paper examines how Russia’s exports, especially in agriculture (grains and fertilizers), critical minerals (uranium, titanium, nickel, aluminium), and coal, are fuelling the Kremlin’s war machine in Ukraine, while also challenging and undermining the global financial-economic architecture and established principles of international trade.
The West’s reliance on Russian goods and commodities gives Putin crucial leverage, while exposing their economies to the potential of economic blackmail from Russia. For Canada, this presents a historic opportunity to supplant Russian exports with Canadian goods and commodities.
The paper’s key conclusions include:
• Despite Russia’s seemingly strong competitive advantages, its economy is now feeling the strain of the sanctions imposed following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its ongoing rift with the West. Russia’s attempt to re-orientate towards Indo-Pacific markets has resulted in lower profits, a need to redirect logistics, and increased dependence on China, which can now determine the conditions of trade.
• Russia is a major global supplier of grains and fertilizers. Moscow can and will use this fact as a geopolitical weapon to redirect its exports to so-called “friendlycountries” and to create artificial shortages in countries of the Global South. Such shortages could lead to regional political destabilization and ultimately harm the West.
• The situation with critical metals is complex. Critical minerals were excluded from the economic sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022. However, the US and the UK introduced sanctions on them this year. Weaning the West off some categories of Russian critical metals (e.g., titanium and nickel) will take time – and political will. For other critical minerals (e.g., uranium) Russia is likely to implement a broad range of measures that will make it harder for the West to diversify its supplies. Further, in a bid to overcome the pressure of sanctions, Russia will intensify its integration with China by transferring parts of the production cycle to this country.
• Russia’s coal industry is currently one of the Putin regime’s top cash cows. However, the cumulative effect of Western sanctions, decreasing coal consumption in Europe, and protective barriers erected by Russia’s Asia-based top customers have effectively made coal production in Russia economically unsustainable.
It’s clear that importers of Russian goods and commodities have made a bargain with the devil. They simply cannot afford to continue to rely on rogue nations that violate human rights and international law.
With Russia now a pariah to many democratic nations, Canada has a unique and historic opportunity to capitalize on the situation. Canada’s vast resources – comparable to those of Russia’s – position it well to supply the needs of Russia’s former clients.
There are many reasons to choose Canada, including its reliability as a supplier, its support for democracy, its peaceful foreign policy, and its support of free market economies. It also adheres to the environmental pillar of the Triple Bottom Line (TBL) – which makes its exploration and production methods commensurate with world’s highest standards. Canada’s stable political tradition also stands in stark contract with Russia’s descent into authoritarianism.
Waiting for Russia to “change” is a dubious proposition. Now is the perfect time for Russia’s importing partners to forge stronger economic ties with Canada. At the same time, Canada needs to be open for business. The fate of the free world depends on Canadian resources and goods reaching its strategic partners. This is truly a historical opportunity for Canada.
Russia’s current disinformation campaign revolves around three key ideas: the spread of anti-Ukrainian agendas, anti-EU themes and narratives, and the glorification of Russia, its military-political leadership, diplomacy, and economic “achievements.”
Ordinary people already see the problems within European society that the European Union needs to solve, and it will only take a slight push from Russia to spur discontent among vulnerable populations against their governments’ shortcomings.
African students working and living in Russia under the guise of reconstructing ROC monasteries in Ryazan oblast are reportedly joining the Russian Armed Forces to take part in Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Low living standards, limited social security, and the declining popularity of the West in Africa could become a useful tool for Moscow in expanding its influence operations in the Global South.
International cooperation in the Arctic and China’s central role are significant components of this new collegium, as Russia seeks to strengthen defense and military partnerships to form a “polycentric world.”
Nikolai Patrushev’s appointment as head of the collegium and the continued stagnation of the Russian economy might result in Moscow’s willingness to grant Beijing greater access to the Russian part of the Arctic.
The Russian economy is grappling with significant structural issues, including dwindling economic reserves, labor shortages exacerbated by demographics, heavy war casualties, and mass emigration. High inflation and rampant corruption are also contributing to economic instability in Russia.
Russia’s severe labor shortages, especially in sectors critical for the military, offer a strategic lever for Ukraine and the West. Heavy losses at the front could cause Moscow to consider mass mobilization, which will place further stress on the Russian labor market and probably would trigger another wave of emigration.
More can be done to target Russia’s oil sector, as it remains the Kremlin’s main cash cow for funding the war. One option is to reconsider implementing a more stringent price cap, which Poland earlier proposed at $30 per barrel.
Shining a light on widespread disdain for Moscow’s policies and interethnic tensions within Russia—particularly involving migrant workers and non-Russian ethnic groups—could be exploited to put more pressure on the Kremlin.
The Kremlin’s focus on channeling more spending to the military-industrial complex has created an illusion of rapid economic growth. In reality, this spending has exacerbated economic problems that could lead Russia toward wider economic failures.
Facilitating Ukraine’s pressure on Russian forces at the front and in Kursk as well as implementing expanded and more targeted sanctions are crucial to intensifying economic pressure in decimating Moscow’s ability to wage war.
- Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the incident, demonstrating the country’s effectiveness in countering Russia’s military presence in Africa and elsewhere.
- Wagner’s defeat in Mali underscores the significant limitations of Russia’s PMCs in achieving sustained success in volatile regions like Sub-Saharan Africa due to Russia’s declining influence and increasing involvement of Ukrainian operatives.
- Other diamond-producing countries, many of which are in Africa, are enthusiastic about the prospect of these sanctions opening opportunities, as Russian diamonds have heavily saturated the market in the past.
- The new sanctions are unlikely to result in the total collapse of Russia’s diamond industry. They nevertheless could further degrade the Russian economy and inflame anti-Moscow sentiments in the country’s diamond-producing, ethnically non-Russian regions.
- The use of Caspian routes to transport energy to Europe has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent loss of access to European markets.
- The countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus hope to leverage their wealth of natural resources and advantageous geography to transform the Caspian Sea region into a major hub for satisfying Europe’s energy needs.
- Russia is expected to seek alternatives to the US market by increasing uranium exports to “friendly” countries and working with uranium-producing countries in the Global South.
- The forfeiture of the US market is an unpleasant development for Russia, but Moscow has options and will likely manage to avoid the collapse of its uranium industry.
- The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to strengthen economic ties between Russia and non-Western countries,
- Russia is targeting China and developing countries in the Global South to expand its grain trade and exploit the issues these countries face, including famine in Africa.
Battalions have formed in the North Caucasus, a region that suffered disproportionately high losses at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which led to protests and the spread of anti-Moscow rhetoric in 2022.
Using residents of the North Caucasus as cannon fodder in Ukraine, Moscow demonstrates little respect for the ethnically non-Russian regions and their peoples.
Such an approach has raised ethnic tensions in some regions where the volunteers are largely non-ethnic Russians, while other regions have become the darlings of Russian propagandists.
Growing combat losses and Moscow’s neglect of non-ethnic Russians are creating the foundation for greater anti-Kremlin sentiments in Siberia.
- Many of these “volunteer” battalions have experienced heavy losses along the frontlines, which the Russian government attempts to cover up and deny.
- The disproportionate use of ethnically non-Russian in “human wave” assaults have stirred tensions in the region that could boil over if the Kremlin continues to press the regions for more manpower.
diverse array of thematic areas include security, economics and trade, the environment, and natural resources. Given Russia’s declared strategic intent to re-orient towards Eurasia and its deteriorating ties with the West, which roles do Russian leaders assign to the Arctic? Will the Arctic remain a “territory of peace and dialogue,” or is it fated to become another geopolitical region marked by disagreement and confrontation?