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Concerned of Bristol 💉x5 Profile picture
Concerned of Bristol 💉x5
@ConcernedofBri1
The push to herd immunity by natural infection is moral emptiness & epidemiological stupidity... 🚫🐄
Aug 25, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
...and up pops @NickTriggle again, this time promoting repeat infections over your life and trying to throw doubt on booster programs

Would love to know where he gets his research from, as this feels like pure eugenicist fever dream propaganda

1/ 2/
@NickTriggle first question:

It appears immunity wains

But infection's a random process & it's taken 18 moths to infect c. 30% of the population

How do you ensure people are infected often enough so we don't get large numbers of deaths in people who had it a while ago?
Jul 15, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
🧵

@BBCNews's campaign against self isolation risks damaging public health, giving #COVID19 a free reign

Why campaign?

I'm desperately searching for balanced coverage but all stories tell how isolation is damaging business

For every positive just 2.6 app users isolating

1/ 2/
The reason isolations are so high is because cases are concentrated into children and the working population

With 42k cases yesterday and likely more than half the population protected by double vaccination, that gives you similar prevalence in at risk pop to January peek
Jul 13, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
These make for interesting reading:

§7 92% vaccine uptake vs 96% - have to assume this is adult and importantly, for at least a week it has looked like we will top out at around 90%

High instability because w/o vaccinating children, you have reservoir susceptible

1/ 2/
§8 PCR testing capacity is 578k per day and may be exceeded in period of high prevalence lasting until the end of August.

😳

So that is why they are ramping up testing.

Expecting more than 578k tests a day... Image
Jun 23, 2021 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
.@CMO_England wondering if you can explain why we appear to have a strategy designed to breed a vaccine resistant strain of #COVID19 + why your office is silent on this idiocy?

Large numbers of children infected by Delta, mixing with parents who are partially vaccinated...

1/ 2/ It's easy to see this - and that it's not an artefact from @IanDenton12's charting:

Dec 14, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/
This video crystallises something that has been bugging me

Please read this 🧵 and see if you can help me understand

First, watch the video and then compare + contrast with the one in the next Tweet

🤔

Also, today has raised a new really important question at the end… 2/
On May 6th @MattHancock believed that children in school spread #COVID19.

And on December 10th he believed children in school spread COVID.

gov.uk/government/spe…
Nov 30, 2020 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
With @imperialcollege React 7a results there is a question that desperately needs asking.

Why did the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 fall in every age group apart from the two including school children?

1/ 2/
I remember when the lie was:

-children don't catch #COVID
-children only catch it from adults
-children don't transmit it to each other.

@CMO_England this is really starting to look like solid evidence the above were lies.
Nov 29, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This is not a pop @NicolaSturgeon any more than @BorisJohnson, but the argument that it's too soon to make comparisons is wearing thin.

UK:
1.6M cases (pop. 67.9M)
85.7 deaths/100k

S. Korea
34k cases (pop. 51.6M)
1.0 deaths/100k

1/ 2/
The UK has a death toll that is 86 times that of South Korea and 34% f those deaths happened after 1 June 2020.

Date chose as that's when the first lockdown ended.
Nov 27, 2020 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
@KatharineDC Here's an example of why @BBCNews is gaining a reputation for bias

Bias is a subtle tool

Either lazy journalism means the writer missed Y7-11 have the most cases of any age (>2%) or they were trying to create the impression of a problem that is overhyped

Bias

1/ 2/
Relatively few is wrong

Look at @ONS data: you see only 6th Form - 24 even come close to 2%

NB: These @ONS demographics seem to carry bias too

Why not count all school children?

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

Look at the Half Term Dips in Y12 - 24!

Universities don’t have HT…
Nov 26, 2020 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
Schools or Partying?

On 12/11 coronavirus cases spiked to 33k cases, it remains the only day where over 30k have been reported...

But the partying narrative is part of the agenda to keep schools open 'at all costs'

Please read on, it's going to take c. 10 min to post...

1/ 2/
We know .gov have been pushing journalists to infer its was due to pre-lockdown partying

For example @nicktriggle's piece from 16/11, but this appears to be lazy journalism.

Oct 27, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/
.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day

😖

Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day

😬 2/
Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.

Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.

WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days
Oct 21, 2020 • 8 tweets • 10 min read
@adamhamdy It looks very much like schools are being used to drive this by the back door.

A bit more thinking to do about 👇

It shows %age rise in 7 day average across UK but you can clearly see spikes a week after schools went back in different regions, then unis

(1/n) @adamhamdy 2/n

From last night's press conference @BorisJohnson seems to think we just need to try a bit harder to follow rules

However, since mid-July there have been around 15% extra cases each week

This seems to have jumped to more like 25% as schools returned

Oct 20, 2020 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
Two things we learned from @BorisJohnson

1. He doesn't understand how infection numbers reduce

"unis did a great job of getting their virus under control"

If true, they did it by locking students in their halls...

🤦‍♀️🤥

#COVID19

2. He doesn't really get exponential growth.

Apparently the R is only a bit above 1 so it's all okay.

It's around 1.3 to 1.5, higher than the lead into this debacle from mid August on. So numbers not going south yet.

🤦‍♀️🤬

Both bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5…
17.54pm

(2/3)
Oct 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
.@WelshGovernment appears to believe older children higher transmission risk for #COVID19

@educationgovuk guidance last updated 1/10 doesn't mitigate this or aerosol transmission- clear its schools' job to assess

🤔

Squeaky bum time for school leaders

gov.uk/government/pub… ImageImageImage Because Government #dontmentiontheschools you mightn't have noticed 👆

As any of the people below will remind you, @NAHTnews @ASCL_UK @SchoolGovNet @SchoolGov are responsible for school H&S:

@HoppySaul
@adamhamdy
@EdnaKrabapple1
@paysupplystaff
@Kateliveco1G

😷