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Harry Chris Profile picture
@hchris999
May 21 • 3 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#uranium math in million of lbs.

Supply 2024 to 2030
1015 based on 2023 production of 145
210 avg 30/yr increase if even possible
105 secondary supply 15/yr mainly from Russia
1330 TOTAL SUPPLY

/1
Demand 2024 to 2030
1260 based on 2023 demand of 180
140 avg 20/yr increase conservatively
105 avg 15/yr overfeeding demand
? financial players
1505 TOTAL DEMAND

175 DEFICIT or 25 million lbs per year

/2
You can adjust these numbers as you wish, but the conviction for this trade is in the math. It really is as simple as that.

I don't know how this gap will be filled but the $$$ fight for the last available pounds will be something to see.

/end

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More from @hchris999

Harry Chris Profile picture
Apr 2
Why the world's largest #uranium miner needs much higher uranium spot prices?

A long thread...bear with me🙏/1
Kazatomprom $KAP went public in November 2018. It is the largest #uranium miner with about 45% (2021) of world production. The company is very profitable and earns significant cash flow.
It is also a beneficiary of a rising uranium price and a falling local currency. /2
Since listing, their average #uranium selling price has risen from $24.37/lb US to $42.50/lb US last year. At the same time, the Tenge (Kazakhstan's currency) has depreciated vs. the US dollar from 344.90 to 460.85 giving the company a double benefit./3
Read 16 tweets
Harry Chris Profile picture
Mar 10
Mostly going unnoticed, Urenco released their 2022 annual report. As one of the largest enrichers, there are some very significant implications to #uranium in this report as we go through 2023. A🧵

/1

Urenco saw a largest increase in their order book of 24%. Capital spending only slightly increased. That said, they are not standing still with plans for increasing capacity (explained later). /2
Revenue performance was slightly better. Noticeably, SWU revenue went up, while uranium sales went down.
UxC reported that average spot prices rose from $35 US in 2021 to $49 in 2022, but they are curtailing sales into the market.
SWU prices increased as noted 👇 /3
Read 8 tweets
Harry Chris Profile picture
Jan 7
2022 was a good year for new #nuclear reactors as the grid saw a net increase of 4089 MWe to the worldwide fleet (source PRIS).

By comparison, the last time there was a large increase was in 2018, when China connected 7 reactors.

Let's see what this means for #uranium./1
Three significant factors I believe have changed for the good, which will maintain this trend for #nuclear reactors in 2023 and onwards.
1-Embracement of nuclear as a solution to climate issues and energy security
2-Covid's impact coming to an end
3-Supply chain/Disruptions
/2
There are many more qualified individuals who can speak to the first point, but I would like to address the second and third point, and its implication to #uranium.

Every year, the WNA sets out a list of new reactors that it expects will be connected to the grid. ⬇️2023
/3
Read 8 tweets
Harry Chris Profile picture
Dec 8, 2022
I am a fan of history. There is a lot to learn from it.

If the price pattern followed by spot prices is consistent, we may finally see a significant move up in the spot price of #uranium in 2023. 🧵/1
There are 3 spot prices that play a key role; conversion, enrichment and, of course, uranium. The price of all three typically move in the same direction, but not simultaneously. The sequence in prices between the last bull market and this one appears so far to be consistent./2
In the last bull market, as today, the first spot price out of the gate was the conversion spot price. North American conversion spot prices rallied early in 2005 and stayed at those levels through 2007./3
Read 11 tweets
Harry Chris Profile picture
Oct 19, 2022
PetroTal #PTAL $TAL.V
While the company continues to grow its cash and profits, shareholders have seen their shares remain flat.

Within the next few months that could change and we may see the shares re-rated much higher. Let me explain./1
At the end of September PetroTal had $93 million cash on hand. With the news this week that Petroperu is to receive $1 billion++ US in funds, their ability to shortly pay the $64 million noted by PetroTal increases significantly./2

These two numbers total $157 million and are important to the repayment of the bonds. The CFO has stated that they want to maintain $75 million cash on hand (Aug 26 cc), and the bonds are $80 million. Any future cash flows (as of Q4) can then be used for dividends and buybacks./3
Read 11 tweets
Harry Chris Profile picture
Sep 25, 2022
“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” - Mark Twain

A long thread on interest rates and the stock market, compared to #uranium prices and a stock.

The bull market of 2004-07 as compared to that of the current 2021-202? /1
The #uranium bull market of the mid 2000s was marked by a period of rising interest rates. Between 2004 and 2006, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 17 times from 1.0% to 5.25% to curb inflation and cool off an overheated economy./2
The stock market however continued on its merry way until mid-2007 when the financial crisis started. Meanwhile inflation in the US ranged from 3%-5.5%.

During this period the S&P returned 31% from 2004 to end of 2007./3
Read 19 tweets

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