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ISW

Feb 20

Tonight's report forecasts the unlikelihood of significantly increased Russian offensive operations this winter based on an assessment of Russian forces already committed to active operations compared w/ #Russia’s overall ground forces' order of battle.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar021923

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1627496280279642112

2/ Russian conventional ground forces in #Luhansk Oblast are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures.

3/ Russian conventional ground forces are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures.

Read 14 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Feb 19

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) promoted the Western and Eastern Military District (WMD/EMD) commanders after confirming their appointments as district commanders. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar021823

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1627124328054546433

2/ Russian President Vladimir #Putin promoted WMD Commander Yevgeny Nikiforov and EMD Commander Rustam Muradov to Colonel General after the Russian MoD formally named the two as military district commanders. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

3/ Nikiforov and Muradov have likely held these positions for at least several months without the rank of Colonel-General that is typical for military district commanders. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

Read 4 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Feb 19

#Donetsk Oblast🧵

Russian forces secured marginal advances amidst continued offensive operations around #Bakhmut on February 18. Russian forces also continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk City and in western Donetsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1627124328054546433

2/ Geolocated footage published on February 18 indicates that Russian forces likely secured marginal advances NW of #Bilohorivka (21km NE of #Bakhmut) and near Rozdolivka (18km north of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar021823

3/ Geolocated footage published on February 17 shows Russian forces closer to Zaliznianske (11km north of #Bakhmut) and a section of the E40 highway north of Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

Read 9 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Feb 19

Ukrainian officials continue to question the #RussianArmy's ability to conduct a large-scale offensive in #Donetsk Oblast, #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1627124328054546433

2/ ISW has previously assessed that the Russian military’s costly campaign in #Ukraine has likely significantly depleted the necessary Russian equipment and manpower reserves for large-scale offensives in Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

3/ The Russian military's likely degraded ability to conduct mechanized maneuver warfare tactics may be denying the Russian military any tactical advances throughout Ukraine outside of marginal gains in the Bakhmut area. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

Read 5 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Feb 19

NEW: Russian sources are advocating for #Russia to carry out “retaliatory strikes” that would target electrical infrastructure supporting Ukrainian nuclear power plants.

The US has determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar021823

2/ Russian news aggregator Readovka told its almost 1.7M subscribers that Russian forces need to prioritize the “decommissioning” of the nuclear power plant's (NPP's) external electrical infrastructure in hopes that doing so would lead to the emergency shutdown of NPPs in Ukraine

3/ Readovka did not advocate for Russian forces to directly strike nuclear power plants or attempt to cause radiological events, but rather to target separate substations that would cut off electrical supply essential to the safe operation of the plants...

Read 4 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Feb 18

#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin appears to be mounting an informational counteroffensive against the conventional Russian military establishment. 🧵(1/10) isw.pub/UkrWar021723

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1626755361339326464

2/ Following a video posted on February 16 of #Wagner Group troops stating that they have been cut off from artillery supplies Wagner fighters released another video on February 17 showing a room full of bodies of deceased Wagner fighters.

3/ The fighter in the video claims that #Wagner Group is losing hundreds of personnel a day because the Russian MoD is not providing them with the weapons, ammunition, and other supplies that they need.

Read 10 tweets

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