One thing I think may be happening: Late mail used to skew very Dem in west; younger voters dropped or sent very late.
So, we were used to BIG blue shift.
2020 broke that. Pandemic. More Dems voted earlier. So, reduced expectation of big blue shift this year. But could be back?
So, we were used to BIG blue shift.
2020 broke that. Pandemic. More Dems voted earlier. So, reduced expectation of big blue shift this year. But could be back?
Some Dems are facing big deficits in uncalled California districts, maybe too big. But by pre-2020 standards, I wouldn't have deemed it impossible & been watching assiduously. And based on pattern so far in CA+AZ+NV, I think it's worth to keep watching all of these seats.
Take #CA27: GOP was up 15.1%. Dem won today's batch by 8%. That cut GOP lead to 12.7%.
(All of #CA27 is in LA. Today LA counted 1/8th of total ballots left countwide. This is all very crude math, & hard to project, so I don't want to spell it out more... Point is: A lot left.)
(All of #CA27 is in LA. Today LA counted 1/8th of total ballots left countwide. This is all very crude math, & hard to project, so I don't want to spell it out more... Point is: A lot left.)
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