🧵Forceful #deportation of Ukrainians to #Russia is continued. Accord. to UA Ombudswoman more than 120 000 of kids were deported from occupied areas. Firstly either to Donetsk (occupied part of UA), or to Rostov (RF). RU claims, they are from orphanages, but that is lie 1/
In #Mariupol, for example, all orphanages were evacuate on Febr.24-25. Thus, other kids either have parents, or became orphans recently. Anyway their deportation to aggressor state is strictly prohibited by UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and #GeneveConventions.2/
Russia has already deported #Ukrainian orphans back in 2014 from occupied #Crimea. For that #Russia was excluded from ENOC, international network of Ombudsmen on the Rights of a Child #StopRussia 3/
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THREAD. Day 52d since #RussiaInvadedUkraine. How does situation look on the ground? Below find overview on 1)military situation. 2)developments in temporary occupied areas 3) negotiations 4)what to expect ⬇️1/
1)Military situation. #Russia seriously changed its tactics. After failure of RU land operation in the North (#Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv) RU is concentrating its efforts in fixing its presence in the South, occupation of whole #Donbas and ensuring land corridor btw Russia and Crimea 2/
Donbas is needed for #Russia for 2 reasons. 1)Ideological: to show success before May,9. If #Putin can’t occupy even Donbas (that is not enough for RU), he is complete looser and propaganda won’t explain it. 2)Military: RU wants to weaken the most efficient part of UA army 3/
THREAD on What’s next between #Russia and West? This is crucial Q-n, directly influencing Western reaction of RU aggression. Declaration, that RU is commenting #WarCrimes doesn’t necessarily mean readiness of the West to reshape and rebuild its relations with RF 1/
Scenario 1. West wants to preserve relations as such, continue business with RU while accusing it for aggression and authoritarianism. It means support to “peace deal” btw #Ukraine and #Russia regardless, whether it will bring strategic security either for UA, or for Europe 2/
In this case, RU will be treated as aggressor, but won’t be economically and politically punished to possible maximum. After “peace deal” or in case of protracted conflict, West will return to “rational” co-existence with RU, meaning “business” cooperation. 3/
🧵RU war crimes, disclosed in towns around Kyiv, is a #genocide of Ukrainians. Accord. to UN “Genocide Convention” (1951), genocide is any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: 1/
(a)Killing members of the group; (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; 2/
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group. After #BuchaMassacre we have seen direct proofs of at least 4 out of 5 possible #genocide acts. 3/
1/ Most impressive from intercepted phone calls btw RU militaries and their wifes/moms: 1) women are excited by marauding catch, directly say to take as much as possible; 2) women hate Ukrainians, perceive them as subhumans and urge to kill and destroy. No compassion
2/ 3)Once RU soldiers are captured and call to ask relatives to make it public, to address authorities to release them, the is pure silence in response. Moms/wifes say “What can I do?”. This is the most impressive. Not to try to save your child, really?!
3/ 4) Lots of curse words. Almost any conversation btw soldiers and their women is 90% consist of curse words. Not just to call Ukrainians, but generally.
Refusal from NATO will be strategic mistake for #Ukraine️. They say that @NATO doesn’t want UA as a member. On the contrary:1) this 🇩🇪 or 🇫🇷 position won’t change without pressure from UA. By refusing we strengthen idea, that RU is to decide about UA-NATO relations 🧵1/
2/Such refusal can’t be temporary and tactical. No one will treat UA seriously, if it decides to return to idea you join NATO later. UA authorities will look as unstable, if change strategic priorities from Constitution easily.
3/Another claim to @NATO like it doesn’t help UA now. Though #Ukraine expected closed sky, more air-defense and anti-missile systems, fighter jets, all other weapons are supplied by NATO member-states. NATO is alliance of countries. If some gover-ts are against, let’s push them
THREAD. There is a belief that the global outcome, if not of the war, but its next stage will be decided by the battle for Kyiv. But it will be defined by battle for Donbas and the South, where Russia is trying to conquest as much territories, as possible. 1/
Kyiv has not disappeared from Putin's plans, but he can't capture it now. After occupation of large areas connecting Russia and occupied Crimea and enlarging occupied Donbas, Putin will offer ceasefire. While he won't talk about withdrawal of forced from at least these regions
That's why the hottest battles are in Donbas, where intensive land operations are being conducted. Putin wants to show "victory", at least by enlarging so called "republics". It will enable him to play with fake ceasefire just to fix his troops' presence there