Think of remittances as when money from outside SL comes into SL on a personal basis.
This can either be
A. From a foreign account to your own local account
or
B. From your foreign account to someone's local account.
(2/11)
Let's take A first.
In this case, your dollars are sent to a bank account held by a local bank. Now, as long as those dollars are there, the bank can allocate those dollars for other purposes, ie for an outflow of dollars.
No Rajapaksas involved.
(3/11)
The money is still owned by you, you can still have access to it. However, if the bank finds it difficult to release dollars, you might only be able to withdraw this in converted rupee terms.
Or you can keep as a deposit and withdraw USD later when things better.
(4/11)
In B, you remit to someone, lets say a family member. They get the rupee value of your remittance, and they can use it for anything they want.
Once again, the dollars are with the bank, so they can allocate to anything they want.
(5/11)
So then, the trust part is with the bank.
Do you trust the bank to use your dollars for essential imports only?
In the current context, most of it WILL be such. But not 100%, there will be other needs, and yes, some useless ones as well.
(6/11)
25% of this money is supposed to go the central bank, as reserves. In this link I explain how reserves work and how that isn't easy to "steal from" as well. The same applies to banks.
But the money with the banks is absolutely needed now. We don't have dollars to get medicine. No dollars for food. None for gas.
People are literally dying from this.
(8/11)
So yes, sending dollars now WILL improve the situation for people here, and reduce some of their pain.
Does reduced pain on the people help the Rajapaksas stay in power?
(9/11)
That's a personal decision everyone has to make. Which matters more, some people's lives or more pressure on the government especially in context of alternatives such as the government being comprehensively voted out in the future.
I can't answer that.
(10/11)
What I can say is as a Sri Lankan living here, if more money comes in, we'll have more fuel, food, meds. Fewer businesses will go bankrupt, fewer people will starve and the longer my parents and grandparents will live.
If you can, please send Sri Lanka some money.
(11/11)
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I'm going to do a single political thread on the #GotaGoGama#GoHomeGota#OccupyGalleFace protest and a threat it faces. Might be contentious, but please give alternative views.
Let's assume there's some sort of political stability at some point. What that is doesn't really matter too much to this thread's outcomes, it just extends the timeline if it's delayed.
With that out of the way - what will SL need to come out of this?
(2/11)
As long as we keep engaging with the IMF and our creditors, it should hopefully bring enough confidence that there will be some inflows (bilateral, remittances, export conversions, aid) that allow the urgent essential shortages to ease across the next month or two.
Exchange rate is basically the value of a currency in terms of other currencies. Eg- 1 USD is worth XX LKR and vice versa.
Depreciation is when 1 currency loses value against another. Eg- 1 USD going from 200 LKR to 300LKR
Appreciation is opposite.
(2/20)
What determines this value?
Simplified, this is through a demand and supply mechanism. The more demand for a currency, the stronger (appreciation) it will get. The less demand for a currency/more supply, the weaker (depreciation) it will get.
Think of reserves as a "portfolio of assets" owned by the Central Bank. It'll have cash, some bonds, some gold, some other assets with the IMF, etc.
Often denominated in USD or another global currency. Ours is USD.
(2/9)
So reserves are used for 3 broad purposes. 1. To bridge any dollar income/expenses gap the country has - release money from reserves 2. To intervene in foreign exchange market to affect the currency 3. To show confidence internationally that the country has backup money