1/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44
I see many of you were excited by the polls today, so here's a few things you #NeedToKnow about polls
First, all pollsters exhibit bias & it's measured enough to constitute a graph. Here's one from the 2015 election to give you some example:
I see many of you were excited by the polls today, so here's a few things you #NeedToKnow about polls
First, all pollsters exhibit bias & it's measured enough to constitute a graph. Here's one from the 2015 election to give you some example:
2/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44
Watching polls throughout an election is a fool's game. It may provide insight at a given moment but it isn't until the final stretch that it may be indicative. Much can happen & a #LeadersDebate can change everything (click photo to see tail end)
Watching polls throughout an election is a fool's game. It may provide insight at a given moment but it isn't until the final stretch that it may be indicative. Much can happen & a #LeadersDebate can change everything (click photo to see tail end)
3/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44
Next, the #338PollAggregator contains every bias from every pollster, as demonstrated in the photo from (1/5) in this thread. With that said, they currently list an exact tie between Libs & Cons, with NDP ranking lower than the poll released today
Next, the #338PollAggregator contains every bias from every pollster, as demonstrated in the photo from (1/5) in this thread. With that said, they currently list an exact tie between Libs & Cons, with NDP ranking lower than the poll released today
4/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44
According to bias, Ipsos was closest to centre during the 2015 election as demonstrated in post (1/5) & yet the line graph in (2/5) had a disparate ending
Currently Ipsos has the #LPC ahead of #CPC & it seems likely the #NDP is stat is inflated
According to bias, Ipsos was closest to centre during the 2015 election as demonstrated in post (1/5) & yet the line graph in (2/5) had a disparate ending
Currently Ipsos has the #LPC ahead of #CPC & it seems likely the #NDP is stat is inflated
5/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44
In the end, all that matters is seat count & *concentrated votes* in specific ridings, not the average of countrywide polls that #CDNmedia likes to trumpet all election long
Currently it's:
#LPC 141 (+/-) 43
#CPC 133 (+/-) 36
#NDP 36 (+/-) 16
In the end, all that matters is seat count & *concentrated votes* in specific ridings, not the average of countrywide polls that #CDNmedia likes to trumpet all election long
Currently it's:
#LPC 141 (+/-) 43
#CPC 133 (+/-) 36
#NDP 36 (+/-) 16
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