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Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
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15 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Today's Fed Beige Book updates on housing sound familiar...

#Atlanta Fed
#Dallas Fed
#Cleveland Fed
#SanFrancisco Fed

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More from @RickPalaciosJr

Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
14 Jul
Doing monthly review of our macro housing/econ 350+slide deck. Ten charts grabbing my attention for July:

1/10: Percentage of banks easing credit standards for HELOCs (home equity line of credit) now highest ever post-housing induced 2007-2009 recession.
2/10: Acceleration in residential electric customers (proxy for household formations) has subsided. Ties directionally to some of the normalizing we're seeing in for-sale housing market.
3/10: Home builder labor shortages get a ton of attention lately (rightly so), but more of a structural issue than cyclical/transitory. Builders reporting elevated labor shortages goes all the way back to 2013 coming out of last housing downturn.
Read 10 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
5 Jul
Analyzing June new home sales & pricing figures from our monthly builder survey. As one builder noted: “It’s not fun to be a builder anymore.” Lumber relief is nice but pick your poison on other issues. Market commentary from across the country to follow...
#Richmond builder: “It's not fun to be a builder anymore. Cost pressure is killing us. Not only will builders like myself who take 12-24 months to build a house lose margin from increases, but the affordability is becoming a major issue.”
#Atlanta builder: “Costs have driven up prices & we’re no longer preselling. We will not sell a home until frame stage, so our sales numbers are off for June while awaiting framing stage.”
Read 26 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
19 Jun
Here's a housing🧵to chew on over weekend. Mid-June update from 100+home builders across country. 1) rumblings of price ceiling. 2) slightly shrinking pool of qualified buyers. 3) some home releases not selling out immediately. 4) normal summer slowing as vacations take priority.
#Austin builder: “Some interest lists are shrinking & others are not. Seeing buyers who are no longer able or willing to afford the monthly payment. Definitely seeing attrition here. Frustration that prices continued going up without an opportunity to purchase.”
#Dallas builder: “Interest lists are definitely shrinking because of pricing. Some drop off is happening due to price. But the re-sale market is still so tight it hasn’t dropped substantially. Extremely concerned about pricing going forward.”
Read 31 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
14 Jun
Going through our monthly macro housing/econ deck again for June. Here are some charts catching my attention this month.

1/7: The share of Americans expecting home prices to increase over the next year is now higher than back in 2005.
2/7: Looks like tax advantages of owning a home aren't as big of a driver for housing as some thought.
3/7: Trend of shrinking home from 2015-2020 appears to be over. Hopefully not the return of McMansions.
Read 7 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
9 Jun
New home sales fell in May, Y/Y & M/M. Theme of the month was sales decline by builder design. Few comments on demand slowing or skittish buyers, even w/new home prices +18% Y/Y nationally (survey record). Builder commentary from across the country per our survey to follow...
#Nashville builder: “Gapped out. Sales resume in June as new communities & phases start to open. By moving ability to contract on inventory homes later to finished drywall stage (window installation stage previously), expect sales to show continued decline. Decline by design.”
#Charlotte builder: “Paused sales from mid-May to mid-June in all communities & will selectively release homes for sale in the last 2 weeks of June & coming months. Sales look lower vs. last month but was capped due to limited lot availability & no inventory.”
Read 28 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
3 Jun
Some fresh home builder commentary for top #Texas markets. In general, buyer interest lists aren’t shrinking much, and if a few drop-off, builders are easily backfilling. Drumbeat a bit louder on prices getting too high. Demand still pretty nuts.🧵to follow...
#Houston builder: “Buyer interest lists are shrinking slightly. Likely too much price pressure, it’s out of hand.”
#Houston builder: “We’ll be metering sales again in June.”
Read 11 tweets

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