Simon Fraser

8 Mar, 9 tweets, 9 min read

1/9: The #UK government will soon publish its #IntegratedReview of defence, security, development & #ForeignPolicy. This is an important inflection point: we need a comprehensive, credible vision of the #GlobalBritain agenda after #Brexit. What to expect?.. a thread..

2/9: The #IntegratedReview will set principles to guide individual policies, advocating agile, global British reach in support of democratic values. Johnson’s strap-line is “#UK as a force for good”. But lofty principles will only be credible if hard, practical choices are made.

3/9: Much will be orthodox: supporting effective #multilateralism, rule of law, open #trade. I expect strong commitment to the #US relationship (whatever some say, #Biden is a godsend for Johnson) & lots about the fashionable but nebulous concept of an “#IndoPacific tilt”.

4/9: In #Europe the importance of working with the collective #EU will be minimised (or ignored). A strong UK defence role in the Euro-Atlantic area through #NATO will be a priority. The #IntegratedReview will play up bilateral relations with #France & #Germany - and the #E3.

5/9: How the #IntegratedReview addresses #China is crucial. Johnson recently said he is a Sinofile. But the situation in Hong Kong, abuses in Xinjiang, tension in US China relations & hardening mood of the pubic & Conservative party, dictate a more adversarial posture.

6/9: Other priorities will include economic resilience, sustainable #trade, #health, effective multilateral action on #climate, & promoting #UK as a science & technology power. The reduced #aid budget will focus on the bottom billion & upstream prevention of threats.

7/9: On #defence, the uplift announced in November just plugs existing gaps. New spend will have to be matched by cuts. The focus will be on areas of particular UK strength or need - hi-tech aircraft, special forces & #cyber. The #navy will do well, the #army will not.

8/9: #Trade policy will emphasise growth markets & joining regional structures in #Asia & #IndoPacific. The great importance of the #EU market will be skated over. Expect a focus on technology partnerships, infrastructure hubs, UK education exports & leveraging aid.

9/9: The government wants #Whitehall to be faster & more joined up on international policy. The merger of FCO & DfID was a first step. Will #trade soon be folded in? In reality, competition between #CabinetOffice, FCDO & the Trade Department looks set to continue.

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More from @SimonFraser00

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

29 Dec 20

1/6: Now we have the #Brexit deal we should reboot British #foreignpolicy. It needs both clear long-term priorities and agile tactical footwork. For starters, this thread suggests five early opportunities in 2021, which should also help rebuild key relationships.

2/6: First, consolidate a strong role on #climate leading up to the November #COP26 conference in Glasgow. Show that UK can exercise serious convening power. Work smartly with US, who under Biden & Kerry will want to run the show. Use it to mend fences with #EU & engage #China.

3/6: Second, use #G7 Presidency to link climate agenda to international health policy & sustainable open trade. Boosting collective clinical & economic response to #Covid19. Use leverage of UK financial support for #WHO and expected success of the Oxford vaccine.

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Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

30 Nov 20

1/6: A short #Brexit retrospective as we enter the last month. Four and a half years ago we started down this path with little understanding of the route or the destination, pushed by ideologues who exploited the diverse and often reasonable grievances of many people.

2/6: Over 4 years #Brexit ideologues have driven us inexorably to more extreme forms of separation, losing the good will of European allies, sidelining our globally successful #services industries, bringing cost & uncertainty for manufacturers & farmers, putting #jobs at risk.

3/6: With #Brexit we have created uncertainty for millions of #British and #EU citizens, weakened our #NHS, overlooked the arguments of our scientists, reduced opportunities for our young people and brought the unity of the UK further into question.

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Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

26 Oct 20

1/10: A win for #JoeBiden in the #USElection next week would be good for the overall interests of #UK but problematic for the #BorisJohnson government. How would the arrival of a Biden administration affect British #foreignpolicy? A thread..

2/10: As the song says, it ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it. Not all #Trump foreign policy was bad (though much was). He made an important call on #China. But he has no idea of the common good, squandered American leadership & damaged alliances & institutions.

3/10: #Biden would be a reversion toward the norm. Unexciting perhaps, but needed & welcome. But he would not mean wholesale change in #US foreign policy. The pressures of #COVID19, political polarisation & economic dislocation remain. As will the tough geopolitical environment.

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Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

23 Jun 20

1/10: So, it’s four years since the #Brexit referendum. We have formally left the #EU but remain in the single market & customs union until 31 December. The future relationship beyond that is still unknown. What are the chances of a deal before the deadline? A thread...

2/10: Negotiators have just 4 months left. It will take two more after that for a deal to be ratified. If there is a deal the scope will be narrow; aiming for tariff-free & quota-free trade in goods. Little on services, never mind non-trade issues. A hard version of #Brexit.

3/10: UK insists a deal must not limit “sovereignty” or leave jurisdiction with the ECJ. It has proposed a series of deals built around a free trade agreement that would involve widespread removal of traditional trade barriers, but far short of the promised “frictionless trade”.

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Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

26 Apr 20

1/11: Before #Covid19 the #geopolitical system was shifting from globalism & multilateralism towards a big power stand-off between #US & #China. The pandemic is accelerating this trend, as all major players struggle to cope. A thread on this, with input from @AlexWhite1812..

2/11: #China, source of the outbreak, has taken a big hit. It suppressed information & numbers. The lockdown apparently worked but was harsh. China is now struggling to reverse a backlash in world opinion through propaganda, exploiting “first recoverer” status & US disarray..

3/11: The early #US federal response was incoherent & failed any test of international leadership. Trump has been awful. But the Fed moved far and fast & some states & cities have done well. Disproportionately high fatalities would damage American prestige...

Read 11 tweets

Simon Fraser

@SimonFraser00

17 Mar 20

1/6: Word on the street is that common sense is breaking out & government may be privately recognising that #Brexit negotiations now need to be postponed & transition extended beyond end December. This was always the right answer: here are 5 reasons why it is now doubly right...

2/6: Bandwidth. All UK & EU efforts should be devoted to tackling the massive #COVID crisis. Senior ministers & officials cannot have enough time now for the crucial business of deciding our long term relationship with #EU. And don’t forget #COP26 climate conference in Nov..

3/6: Practical. Travel suspensions are likely to last for months. Virtual negotiating is unsatisfactory. How do you read body language & do the private deal in the corridor? Also harder to coordinate large teams. And presumably key individuals will get ill along the way..

Read 6 tweets