Australia is likely to be a wrecker on global climate change policy in the 2020s and I don't see that much hope of it changing.
A quick thread on why:
A quick thread on why:
Here's the leader of Australia's opposition yesterday, amidst historic bushfires, refusing to link what's happening to government policy on coal:
If people want to know why Australia's government is trying to skate past this crisis, it's because the opposition is giving them political cover.
Sure, Albanese has *talked* more about the bushfires, but he's not offering anything very different on policy, which is what counts.
Sure, Albanese has *talked* more about the bushfires, but he's not offering anything very different on policy, which is what counts.
I wrote about this last month when the bushfire smoke in Sydney was leaving me sick with bronchitis.
Until the opposition actually offers an alternative there's very little hope of the government feeling under pressure to shift.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Until the opposition actually offers an alternative there's very little hope of the government feeling under pressure to shift.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
That's unlikely to happen because they're very worried about losing a group of four coal-country seats that trended strongly to the government at the May election, and don't seem very hungry to pick up the eight to ten urban seats that trended strongly away from the government.
Beyond that, though, I think being a climate wrecker is just baked in the cake.
Australia is the third-biggest exporter of fossil fuels in the world after Russia and Saudi.
Given the higher emissions from coal, "exports" of CO2 are larger than Saudi's!
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Australia is the third-biggest exporter of fossil fuels in the world after Russia and Saudi.
Given the higher emissions from coal, "exports" of CO2 are larger than Saudi's!
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Of course emissions accounting since Kyoto doesn't count such "exports" towards a nation's total, but that's more a methodological curiosity than common sense.
Clearly Australia has *some* responsibility for the effects of its exports.
We don't just sell uranium to North Korea because "What happens in other countries is nothing to do with us".
We don't just sell uranium to North Korea because "What happens in other countries is nothing to do with us".
The Prime Minister likes to boast that Australia only accounts for 1.3% of global emissions but our fossil fuel exports alone account for more emissions than any country except China, the U.S., Russia or Japan.
A significant part of Australian diplomacy these days is wrecking climate talks like #COP25 and doing trade-promotion trips to encourage Asian countries to buy and burn more Australian coal.
We are not passively letting other nations buy our coal.
We're actively promoting it.
We are not passively letting other nations buy our coal.
We're actively promoting it.
All of our major coal export partners now have ambitions to reduce emissions and fossil fuel imports, but most are struggling to join the dots on their policies.
Australia could play a part in supporting this process through regional agreements, but we're doing the opposite.
Australia could play a part in supporting this process through regional agreements, but we're doing the opposite.
I can accept it's genuinely a difficult problem for politicians. Coal was, in dollar terms, our biggest export in 2018.
It's very hard for a country to just turn its back on its biggest export, especially one like Australia that has had current account deficits for decades.
It's very hard for a country to just turn its back on its biggest export, especially one like Australia that has had current account deficits for decades.
But that trade is going away whether we like it or not.
China's imports are forecast to fall 8% next year. Korea now has European-style taxes on coal power. Japan's population is falling.
Banks are withdrawing finance for coal mining and power.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China's imports are forecast to fall 8% next year. Korea now has European-style taxes on coal power. Japan's population is falling.
Banks are withdrawing finance for coal mining and power.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We can choose to recognize the (positive!) direction the world is moving on coal power and work out how to be part of a climate solution.
Instead we're Canute on the beach, sending ministers round the world to command the tide of declining coal demand to turn around.
Instead we're Canute on the beach, sending ministers round the world to command the tide of declining coal demand to turn around.
Australian voters should be crystal clear that what's happening isn't remote trade diplomacy that has nothing to do with their lives.
Instead it's a transfer of wealth from a mass of ordinary Australians to the smaller group who profit from fossil fuel exports.
Instead it's a transfer of wealth from a mass of ordinary Australians to the smaller group who profit from fossil fuel exports.
The Great Barrier Reef will not survive 2°C of warming, and we are almost certain to see that much warming even with very aggressive action on climate change.
Aside from the ecological tragedy, all those jobs dependent on the reef will go.
foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/21/the…
Aside from the ecological tragedy, all those jobs dependent on the reef will go.
foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/21/the…
Climate change has already taken A$1bn from farm incomes in Australia over the past 20 years, and it's obviously going to get a lot worse: abc.net.au/news/rural/201…
As many as one in 20 properties will become uninsurable by 2100 due to climate change: abc.net.au/news/2019-10-2…
I'd expect that swathes of coastal property in southeast Australia is already getting redlined thanks to the current fires.
I'd expect that swathes of coastal property in southeast Australia is already getting redlined thanks to the current fires.
And then there's the toll to human health and work from all the people sickened by bushfire smoke. That carries a huge cost of its own: theguardian.com/environment/20…
Tourism comprises 10% of our exports, and we heavily promote ourselves as a carefree, blue-skies destination. What will these images do to that trade?
Our short-sightedness on this will ultimately cost the nation, both in the direct impacts of climate change to our vulnerable continent and the indirect effects when the world's shift away from fossil fuels leaves us with an antiquated economic model.
But unless we see something change in Canberra, let's junk the idea that Australia is likely to be anything other than an impediment to climate action.
No one is kidding themselves that Russia or Saudi Arabia are helping. Why would Australia be any different?
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No one is kidding themselves that Russia or Saudi Arabia are helping. Why would Australia be any different?
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