In Madrid at #COP25, but not staying up to the bitter end - largely because the bitter end comes - when? Nobody knows. So - a few thoughts before retiring
It ain't over 'til it's over. This reminds me of COP17 in Durban, which ran loooong into Sunday. And looked like a total shitshow until very near the end - but then produced a watershed moment, the deal that led to the #ParisAgreement. Anything similar looks unlikely here, but...
If it does end in some kind of shitshow, don't blame the process. That's what people do from a distance who've never really thought about it. Any UN process is run by governments - so if it doesn't make progress, look for those governments that don't want to, and blame them
For all its faults, if the @UNFCCC didn't exist you'd have to invent it. Because there has to be a forum where every government gets to represent its people on climate change
Which governments, then, to blame this time? Some are fairly obvious: Brazil and Australia (markets), Saudi Arabia and US (everything). Others may be hiding behind their coat-tails. Chile as COP President has not played a blinder
Equally obviously, not all of those are developed nations. The old trope about developing nations being saints and developed ones sinners has had its day. We're having a much more honest debate these days - broadly speaking, nations with big fossil fuel interests vs the rest
If #COP25 does collapse because of non-agreement on #Article6, well... good news is that the world doesn't need carbon markets in order to decarbonise. In principle markets make it easier and cheaper - but they're not necessary
One thing not to forget in the madness and tiredness: This week, the European Union, the world's third biggest emitter, vowed to move to #netzero emissions by 2050. Lots of details awaited but - that's not insignificant
On which point - contrary to much on Twitter, this was never supposed to be the summit where governments committed to faster emission cuts. That is supposed to be next year (if you're in doubt, see eciu.net/briefings/inte…)
One inescapable takeaway from this summit is that a lot of stuff is about to land in the UK government's lap. And it's going to need top-notch diplomacy from @Cop26President, @IanDuncanHMG and other ministers to make #ClimateSummitUK a success - especially after this
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