There is a resource boom in the least developed countries, including those in Southern Africa. In... more There is a resource boom in the least developed countries, including those in Southern Africa. In order to translate their resource wealth into positive development outcomes in the long run, these countries need to have strong domestic governance systems. Yet, governance indicators in resource-rich LDCs have stagnated or deteriorated in the last decades. We use a new institutional analysis with a focus on path dependence theory to argue that these countries are caught in a “weak governance curse”. Besides having inherited dysfunctional governance paths from past critical junctures, rent-seeking behavior associated with resource rents constitutes a major contemporary political economy obstacle to successful governance reform in these countries. Although these dysfunctional governance systems have become extremely resilient to change, we build a theoretical case as to why global regulatory mechanisms can serve as potential tools to provoke gradual feedback effects to disrupt this nega...
More than 40 years after a catastrophic famine struck the region, the Sahel has once again become... more More than 40 years after a catastrophic famine struck the region, the Sahel has once again become the focus of global attention. Poor economic performance, growing instability, and deteriorating climate conditions have combined to produce a vicious circle of increased poverty, instability, and communal violence. By drying out sources of livelihoods for populations mainly dependent on natural resources, climate change reinforces long-existing rivalries and increasingly triggers violence. In this paper, we argue that while climate change is a proximate cause of violence, institutional failures and clientelism1 are the actual root causes.
African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, Apr 30, 2011
This article analyzed and compared the political responses to Africa’s twenty-first century versu... more This article analyzed and compared the political responses to Africa’s twenty-first century versus twentieth century economic and financial crises in order to explicate the dynamics of policy innovation and continuity. Based on studies of Francophone countries, this comparative institutional analysis proposed direct attention to how ideas (paradigms), interests (strategies of the elites), institutions (national and international) and the temporal context affected political and institutional outcomes. Since the emergence of independent African states, many economic and financial crises have emerged and resulted in path dependent or paradigmatic changes: state interventionism, state capitalism, structural adjustment, privatization, liberalization, progressive dismantling of the interventionist state, interventions of the international financial institutions, regional partnerships for development, poverty reduction strategies, and new public management. Twenty-first century policies constituted a paradigmatic shift compared to the previously nationalist, interventionist, protectionist, and state-centered African policies of the early twentieth century. However, they constitute continuity when compared to neoliberal and market-friendly measures introduced by international financial institutions during the 1980s. Explanations of policy responses lead to newly developed concepts, institutional intrusion (semi-strategic and semi-structural) and inclusion (semi-strategic and semi-ideational), which explain Francophone Africa’s transformations and has implications for comparative politics in developing countries. Key words: Francophone Africa, economic, financial, crisis, institutional intrusion, institutional inclusion, political innovation.
This publication has been made possible with the financial support from the Dutch Ministry of For... more This publication has been made possible with the financial support from the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. | III THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (4IR) AND THE FUTURE OF WORK 1 Throughout this paper, the term "Africa" refers to all the countries of the continent, both North Africa (NA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Often, data are not available for the whole continent; in this case, data for NA and SSA are cited separately. 2 Scientific innovation is the discovery of new scientific knowledge. Technological change is the application of that knowledge to solve existing problems (e.g., mobility, lighting, communication, preventing or curing a disease, etc.). 3 The First Industrial Revolution, which began around 1770, used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second, beginning about 100 years later, used electric power to create mass production. The Third Industrial Revolution began another 100 years later.
Why do policy implementation and public service delivery too often fail to achieve the goals init... more Why do policy implementation and public service delivery too often fail to achieve the goals initially formulated by policy leaders, and how to fix it? What matters for successful implementation and what can policy leaders do? In a previous paper, we proposed a synthesis of the study of policy implementation and the cause of policy failure. This policy paper explains the key factors leading to policy success, and provides policymakers with actionable solutions to help formulate and implement public policies successfully and deliver services to the level of expectations of citizens.
This article explains the 2011 Tunisian transition by offering a deep analysis of how the army pl... more This article explains the 2011 Tunisian transition by offering a deep analysis of how the army played a crucial role in the fall of Ben Ali s regime. What is the rationality behind the militaries decision to refuse Ben Ali s order to open fire on the demonstrators? Why did the Tunisian army opened fire on the protesters in the 2008 protests of Gafsa, and refused to do so in the decisive uprising of 2011? It is argued that the balance of power on the field was such that it opened an opportunity for the army to bring a decisive coup to the regime. This paper offers the first analysis applying game theory to explain the interactions between Ben Ali s regime and the army in the 2011 Tunisian transition. While several analyses focus on the unprecedented popular mobilization to explain Ben Ali s fall, only a few authors attempt to explain the role of the militaries. However, while they emphasize on the disdain of the militaries towards the regime, we, instead, claim that the rationality...
Given the contingent nature of external resources as a partial explanation of the mitigated resul... more Given the contingent nature of external resources as a partial explanation of the mitigated results of the Millennium Development Goals, this note considers that domestic resource mobilization (DRM) is a key to effective delivery of the SDGs in Africa. Literature broadly supports the use of DRM across the continent, but there is little research that looks to understand under what circumstances it is most successful. Building on Matland’s work, this policy brief proposes an innovative comprehensive analytical and predictive model, which explains the key factors leading to failure or success, providing policymakers with contextual and operational policy options to help implement DRM successfully for effective delivery of the SDGs.
On 12 January 2011, Rachid Ammar, the Tunisian army’s chief of staff, refused an order from Presi... more On 12 January 2011, Rachid Ammar, the Tunisian army’s chief of staff, refused an order from President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to shoot at protesters. Two days later, Ben Ali left the country, and the regime transition began. This event is too often neglected by the literature in explaining the Tunisian transition. Although street protests were necessary for initiating a change of regime, the occurrence of such protests does not suffice to explain the speed with which the transition actually happened. Instead, the question this article seeks to answer is why such a strong regime, feared by the entire population, collapsed one month after popular protests began. Without neglecting the importance of popular pressure, we argue that the army played a central role in the fall of Ben Ali. Why did it refuse the president’s order to open fire at the demonstrators? This article is the first attempt to compare two consecutive events during which the army decided whether or not to open fire at ...
The Sustainable Development Goals were adopted during the United Nations Summit in September this... more The Sustainable Development Goals were adopted during the United Nations Summit in September this year, replacing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Although substantial progress has been made, most African countries have not reached most of the MDGs (2000-2015), partly due to the failure to secure the US $64 billion needed per year. Why did Africa and its international partners fail to secure enough financial resources to meet the Millennium Development Goals targets, and what can be learned to fix it and successfully mobilize resources for effective delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals on the continent?
There is a resource boom in the least developed countries, including those in Southern Africa. In... more There is a resource boom in the least developed countries, including those in Southern Africa. In order to translate their resource wealth into positive development outcomes in the long run, these countries need to have strong domestic governance systems. Yet, governance indicators in resource-rich LDCs have stagnated or deteriorated in the last decades. We use a new institutional analysis with a focus on path dependence theory to argue that these countries are caught in a “weak governance curse”. Besides having inherited dysfunctional governance paths from past critical junctures, rent-seeking behavior associated with resource rents constitutes a major contemporary political economy obstacle to successful governance reform in these countries. Although these dysfunctional governance systems have become extremely resilient to change, we build a theoretical case as to why global regulatory mechanisms can serve as potential tools to provoke gradual feedback effects to disrupt this nega...
More than 40 years after a catastrophic famine struck the region, the Sahel has once again become... more More than 40 years after a catastrophic famine struck the region, the Sahel has once again become the focus of global attention. Poor economic performance, growing instability, and deteriorating climate conditions have combined to produce a vicious circle of increased poverty, instability, and communal violence. By drying out sources of livelihoods for populations mainly dependent on natural resources, climate change reinforces long-existing rivalries and increasingly triggers violence. In this paper, we argue that while climate change is a proximate cause of violence, institutional failures and clientelism1 are the actual root causes.
African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, Apr 30, 2011
This article analyzed and compared the political responses to Africa’s twenty-first century versu... more This article analyzed and compared the political responses to Africa’s twenty-first century versus twentieth century economic and financial crises in order to explicate the dynamics of policy innovation and continuity. Based on studies of Francophone countries, this comparative institutional analysis proposed direct attention to how ideas (paradigms), interests (strategies of the elites), institutions (national and international) and the temporal context affected political and institutional outcomes. Since the emergence of independent African states, many economic and financial crises have emerged and resulted in path dependent or paradigmatic changes: state interventionism, state capitalism, structural adjustment, privatization, liberalization, progressive dismantling of the interventionist state, interventions of the international financial institutions, regional partnerships for development, poverty reduction strategies, and new public management. Twenty-first century policies constituted a paradigmatic shift compared to the previously nationalist, interventionist, protectionist, and state-centered African policies of the early twentieth century. However, they constitute continuity when compared to neoliberal and market-friendly measures introduced by international financial institutions during the 1980s. Explanations of policy responses lead to newly developed concepts, institutional intrusion (semi-strategic and semi-structural) and inclusion (semi-strategic and semi-ideational), which explain Francophone Africa’s transformations and has implications for comparative politics in developing countries. Key words: Francophone Africa, economic, financial, crisis, institutional intrusion, institutional inclusion, political innovation.
This publication has been made possible with the financial support from the Dutch Ministry of For... more This publication has been made possible with the financial support from the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. | III THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (4IR) AND THE FUTURE OF WORK 1 Throughout this paper, the term "Africa" refers to all the countries of the continent, both North Africa (NA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Often, data are not available for the whole continent; in this case, data for NA and SSA are cited separately. 2 Scientific innovation is the discovery of new scientific knowledge. Technological change is the application of that knowledge to solve existing problems (e.g., mobility, lighting, communication, preventing or curing a disease, etc.). 3 The First Industrial Revolution, which began around 1770, used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second, beginning about 100 years later, used electric power to create mass production. The Third Industrial Revolution began another 100 years later.
Why do policy implementation and public service delivery too often fail to achieve the goals init... more Why do policy implementation and public service delivery too often fail to achieve the goals initially formulated by policy leaders, and how to fix it? What matters for successful implementation and what can policy leaders do? In a previous paper, we proposed a synthesis of the study of policy implementation and the cause of policy failure. This policy paper explains the key factors leading to policy success, and provides policymakers with actionable solutions to help formulate and implement public policies successfully and deliver services to the level of expectations of citizens.
This article explains the 2011 Tunisian transition by offering a deep analysis of how the army pl... more This article explains the 2011 Tunisian transition by offering a deep analysis of how the army played a crucial role in the fall of Ben Ali s regime. What is the rationality behind the militaries decision to refuse Ben Ali s order to open fire on the demonstrators? Why did the Tunisian army opened fire on the protesters in the 2008 protests of Gafsa, and refused to do so in the decisive uprising of 2011? It is argued that the balance of power on the field was such that it opened an opportunity for the army to bring a decisive coup to the regime. This paper offers the first analysis applying game theory to explain the interactions between Ben Ali s regime and the army in the 2011 Tunisian transition. While several analyses focus on the unprecedented popular mobilization to explain Ben Ali s fall, only a few authors attempt to explain the role of the militaries. However, while they emphasize on the disdain of the militaries towards the regime, we, instead, claim that the rationality...
Given the contingent nature of external resources as a partial explanation of the mitigated resul... more Given the contingent nature of external resources as a partial explanation of the mitigated results of the Millennium Development Goals, this note considers that domestic resource mobilization (DRM) is a key to effective delivery of the SDGs in Africa. Literature broadly supports the use of DRM across the continent, but there is little research that looks to understand under what circumstances it is most successful. Building on Matland’s work, this policy brief proposes an innovative comprehensive analytical and predictive model, which explains the key factors leading to failure or success, providing policymakers with contextual and operational policy options to help implement DRM successfully for effective delivery of the SDGs.
On 12 January 2011, Rachid Ammar, the Tunisian army’s chief of staff, refused an order from Presi... more On 12 January 2011, Rachid Ammar, the Tunisian army’s chief of staff, refused an order from President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to shoot at protesters. Two days later, Ben Ali left the country, and the regime transition began. This event is too often neglected by the literature in explaining the Tunisian transition. Although street protests were necessary for initiating a change of regime, the occurrence of such protests does not suffice to explain the speed with which the transition actually happened. Instead, the question this article seeks to answer is why such a strong regime, feared by the entire population, collapsed one month after popular protests began. Without neglecting the importance of popular pressure, we argue that the army played a central role in the fall of Ben Ali. Why did it refuse the president’s order to open fire at the demonstrators? This article is the first attempt to compare two consecutive events during which the army decided whether or not to open fire at ...
The Sustainable Development Goals were adopted during the United Nations Summit in September this... more The Sustainable Development Goals were adopted during the United Nations Summit in September this year, replacing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Although substantial progress has been made, most African countries have not reached most of the MDGs (2000-2015), partly due to the failure to secure the US $64 billion needed per year. Why did Africa and its international partners fail to secure enough financial resources to meet the Millennium Development Goals targets, and what can be learned to fix it and successfully mobilize resources for effective delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals on the continent?
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