Papers by Dr. Ahmed Mashaal
Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, 2017
Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2016
Abstract:
The research aims to propose a set of scenarios represent alternatives to the different... more Abstract:
The research aims to propose a set of scenarios represent alternatives to the different pattern crops, which it will be achieve the suitable crops pattern in the study area. The study used the goal programming model to maximize the net return of feddan which it was equal 909.3 million Egyptian pound for the current crop pattern and the minimize the used quantities of the irrigation water, which are estimated at 994 million cubic meters of water as average of the period (2010 - 2015), This quantities of water are used to cultivate area of about 246,175 feddan distributed over 17 crop represent the current crop pattern.
By using of the goal programming model, the first, second, third and fourth scenarios led to minimize the consumption of irrigation water quantities, all of them gave a surplus amount to 27.2, 185.5, 222.8, 201.4 million cubic meters of water respectively, while it doesn't achieve the maximization of the net return of feddan, but it achieved deficit compared to the current crop pattern.
However, The fifth and sixth scenarios achieved maximization of the net return of feddan increase of about 74.3, 53.6 Egyptian pound compared to the current crop pattern, and these scenarios achieved the minimization of the used irrigation water amounted to 129.4 156.4 million cubic meters of water compared to the current crop pattern, also the third and sixth scenarios achieved higher cultivated area to complete the development scheme, the rate estimated to 66.3, 67.5% respectively from the total target area amounting to 240.74 thousand feddan.
The study recommends the need to determine area of the depleted crops to irrigation water such as rice, and increase areas of the strategic crops such as wheat and oil crops and the high net return crops such as vegetables, apply of the sixth scenario which maximizes the net return and minimizes the consumption of irrigation water quantities and lead to the completion of development scheme for West channel, expanding the guarantee price for some summer crops such as cotton and corn which it be accept the farmers to cultivate them and decrease of cultivated area of rice, and the formation of unions of water users on the level of canals to regulate irrigation shifts and ensure fair distribution among the beneficiaries.
Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2018
Abstract:
The study aimed to identify the main internal and external challenges that hinder the a... more Abstract:
The study aimed to identify the main internal and external challenges that hinder the achieving Egyptian water safety. Which showed that the important internal challenges are increase of the proportion of water losses and the population growth. Whereas major external challenges are the construction Ethiopian Al-Nahda Dam. In addition, the study examined the economic impact of these challenges on Agriculture in Egypt.
The internal challenges led to decrease in per capita water in Egypt from about 992.16 m3 to about 835.07 m3 during the period (2004 - 2016). Which influenced the programs of horizontal expansion of the Plant farming in the development plan (1997 - 2017). While the external challenges represented by the period of filling the Ethiopian Al-Nahda Dam, which were studied through three proposed scenarios, led to a decrease in Egypt's water quota in the three scenarios about 18.51, 9.24, 6.18 billion m3 respectively, and the Agricultural sector will bear about 14.81, 7.40, 4.94 billion m3 respectively. This decrease in the available water quantities to the Agricultural sector led to a decrease in the cultivated area in the proposed pattern crop compared to the actual pattern crop about -25.39%, -11.01%, 5.94% respectively in the three scenarios. which led to unemployment in the Agricultural employment in the three sector scenarios, which is estimated about 2.15, 0.93 and 0.50 million workers respectively, and the basic needs of Agricultural commodities are decreased to about 29.65, 12.85, 6.91 million persons in Egypt respectively in the proposed scenarios. Thus placing the burden of supplying their needs through imports, because of the low rates of self-sufficiency of most Agricultural commodities, which led to increasing the budget deficit and increase levels of inflation. The study also showed the mechanism how to development of the current water revenue from external and internal sources. Where it was possible to increase the volume of water revenues from external resources by about 20.77 billion m3 and from internal resources about 33.67 billion m3. In addition, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the existing water resources from 50% to 64%, leading to increase the per capita water resources in Egypt to about 945.62 m3 / year when applying these mechanisms together. The study recommends that the state adopt a set of water and Agricultural policies that limit the impact of internal challenges, especially the increase in water losses, high population growth. As well as work to find solutions with the Ethiopian side to prolong the period of filling the Ethiopian dam for more than 9 years to ensure to avoid the negative effects on Agriculture in Egypt. In addition, it aims to increase the current water revenues in Egypt to achieve the Egyptian water security by activating Upper Nile projects with the Nile Basin countries, adopting the policy of mutual Agriculture between them for in order to achieve joint integration. As well as work to complete projects to develop the volume of water revenues from internal resources, which leading to achievement the Egyptian water security.
Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2018
Abstract:
The study aims to describe and analyze the different formulas used to calculate the
ran... more Abstract:
The study aims to describe and analyze the different formulas used to calculate the
random sample size of agricultural survey researches. Also, determine a suitable formula among
these formulas to calculate the sample size that represents the population, as well as study the
relationship between the population size and the sample size calculated using the different sample
size formulas.
The most important results are the results of the sample size calculated using the different
sample size formulas were identical to those formulas when the uniformity of the conditions,
namely; (α = 0.05; E = 0.05; P = 0.5; Z = 1.96) so the researcher can choose one of these
formulas to calculate the random sample size. The researcher can also use the table (1) in the
study to calculate the sample size. There are no significant differences between the different
formulas to calculate the optimal random sample size for conducting survey research according to
the standard conditions for those formulas. There is no statistically significant increase in the
sample size calculated from the different formulas of the size sample between the Satisfaction
borders, and accordingly it is recommended that the researcher does not need to use the size of
population exceeds the first satisfaction border. There is found the logarithmic function is the
best mathematical functions represent the relationship between the population size and the
sample size calculated through the different formulas to calculate the sample size with
determination Coefficient around to (R2 = 0.995).
The study recommends that according to the results of the calculation of the size sample
using the different formulas when the standardization of the conditions, the researcher can use
one of these formulas where there is no difference in the size sample calculated. The researchers
can useful from the table of the sample size calculated by using different formulas without
programming those formulas in EXCEL. The logarithmic relationship between the population
size and the sample size can be use, especially when the study population size is more than 1000
cases. The study is recommend to create a table to calculate the sample size at the 99% accuracy
level.
Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2016
Abstract:
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions of the p... more Abstract:
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions of the production and consumption for fish in Egypt. In addition to identifying the most important determinants for the demand of fish in Egypt in order to estimate the demand, function for fish by using Autoregressive Districted Lag (ARDL). As well as studying the fish problems and Suggesting the appropriate methods for how to solving it. The study used some of the techniques and econometric models such as linear regression, unit root test and Autoregressive Districted Lag (ARDL) approach to estimating of the demand function for fish in Egypt.
The most important economic results from the estimated econometric model (ARDL) are; there is a negative and statistically significant effect for the fish price and a positive and statistically significant effect for each of the red meat price and the poultry price of and the real gross domestic production on the demand quantity of fish. The short-run of demand elasticity for each of the fish price, red meat price, poultry price, and GDP estimated at about to (-0.197) (0.258) (0.342) (0.644), respectively. While the long-run demand elasticity for the above-mentioned variables estimated at about to (-0.339) (-0.449) (-0.347) (-0.923), respectively, during the study period.
The study recommends the need to establish an integrated database for fish. It is including the all data rerated to the fish of farms and hatcheries, ports and fishing boats and lakes in Egypt. It can be through this database issuing a several reports regarding the productivity of farms, lakes and various fishing ports. As well as the reports related to the numbers of employment and fishing boats. In addition to other reports related to the fish problems and how to solving those problems. As well as the need to create the fish Stock Exchange that, aims to protect the fishermen from the control of some of the wholesalers, provision of fish for consumers at affordable prices through increased supply, encourage fishing and Fish Resources Development, and creating a surplus for export of fish.
Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2017
ABSTRACT:
This research aimed to estimating the wheat production function in Gharbiya governorate... more ABSTRACT:
This research aimed to estimating the wheat production function in Gharbiya governorate using Stochastic Frontier Approach, in addition to estimating the technical efficiency of the wheat farmers to identify the efficiency of using the agricultural resources. The methodology of study based on use Stochastic Frontier Approach to estimating the technical and economic efficiency of the wheat production. In Addition to the use of One-Way Anova to regression analysis to estimating the wheat cost functions in Gharbiya Governorate for agricultural season 2017.
The most important economic results are there is waste in the resources used by wheat farmers in Gharbiya governorate for the quantity of pesticides, the quantity of chemical fertilizers, the quantity of irrigation water and the quantity of seeds. The average technical efficiency of the wheat farms in Mahalla Al-Kubra, Zifta, Al-Santah and Qatur during the agricultural season of 2017 was estimated about 0.784, 0.835, 0.87 and 0.864 respectively. This means that there is a waste of using these resources in the governorate centers estimated about 21.6%, 16.5%, 13% and 13.6%, respectively. The optimum size for the wheat production that minimize to the costs of Mahalla Al-Kubra, Zifta, Al-Santah and Qatour was 2.81, 3.01, 2.91and 3.19 ton/feddan respectively.
The study recommends applied the Stochastic Frontier Approach for many strategic crops, commensurate with the number of inputs and factors affecting technical inefficiency, this is useful to decision-maker to determine the best ways to manage agricultural resources by crop type. The weakness of technical efficiency for white farms due to conditions under the control of the farmers, where they can control and change them such as reducing the quantity of pesticides, the quantity of chemical fertilizers, the quantity of irrigation water and the quantity of seeds. This calls for raising awareness among farmers in Al Gharbiya Governorate by using the appropriate quantity and the suitable time to use these resources so as not to cause waste of the use. As well as the adoption of a productivity policy basis on linking prices to production costs, in order to work to raise the price of crop annually at a rate consistent with the rate of increase the production costs of wheat crop.
Agricultural Sciences Journal, Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University, 2017
ABSTRACT:
The research aimed to study the technical and economic efficiency of the research stat... more ABSTRACT:
The research aimed to study the technical and economic efficiency of the research stations in the Desert Research Center to identifying the reasons that led to the weak development role of some of these stations and their inability to achieve the research objectives according to the research strategy of the center.
The most important economic results showed that the average technical efficiency of the research stations in the center in the case of the fixed return of scale was about 59.8%, while in the case of the variable return of scale was about 78.1%. The average economic efficiency of the research stations in the center was about 60.2%. While the estimated optimal size of the economic resources in terms of the number of human resources, the number of researchers in the stations was increased from about 7.45 to 9.91 researchers. The number of employees decreased from 59.45 to 21.09. The optimal size of financial resources shows the possibility of reducing the budget coverage of the needs of research stations from about 35.9% to 26.6%.
The most important problems and obstacles faced by research stations was the poor maintenance of machines and equipment in the first place, followed by both weak scientific and laboratory equipment, delayed access to production requirements, and lack of basic researchers' needs.
The study recommends the center to complete the agricultural and non-agricultural infrastructure for the research stations, the need to carry out the periodic maintenance of the machines and equipment, the rehabilitation of the scientific infrastructure in terms of laboratories, paper and electronic libraries, training rooms, to transferring knowledge and modern technology applications to desert communities
Agricultural Sciences Journal, Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University., 2018
ABSTRACT:
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for the... more ABSTRACT:
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for the consumption of both meat and poultry meat and fish in Egypt, Identifying the most important Variables that affect the demand for meat, and estimating the demand of meat in Egypt during the period (1990-2017) by using The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS).
The most important economic results from the estimated Demand of meat are; the increase in the proportion of consumption expenditure in Egypt on red meat compared to the consumption expenditure on both poultry meat and fish, which was about 58%, 18% and 24% respectively. The results of estimated demand of meat refers to the price elasticity of demand indicate that the demand for red meat, poultry meat and fish is inflexible. In addition, the values of the elasticities coefficient shows that both the red meat, poultry meat and fish are substitute commodities. The value of the expenditure elasticity coefficient indicate that each of the three meat groups (red meat, poultry meat, fish) are basic and essential commodities for consumers in Egypt during the study period.
The high expenditure elasticity of the red meat, the study recommends the need to increase the production of red meat to ensure that it is available at prices suitable for low-income consumers. In addition, encouraging the breeding, production and fattening of calves. Moreover, encouraging calf breeders and provide them the animal feed at reasonable prices. This will be leading to increased production of red meat, and more attention must be increasing the production of poultry meat and fish as alternatives to red meat and focusing on fish farming through modern techniques and the intensification of production processes can achieve a significant increase in fish production.
Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics., 2017
ABSTRACT:
This the research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for... more ABSTRACT:
This the research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for both performance of the agricultural sector and inflation in Egypt. In addition to identifying the most important determinants that affect performance of the agricultural sector in Egypt. As well as to estimate the impact of inflation on the performance of agricultural sector by using a fixed-effects with one critical level models , and suggesting a set of measures and solutions to reduce the negative effects of inflation on the agricultural sector in Egypt. The study used some of the techniques and economic models such as linear regression, and fixed effects with one critical level models.
The most important economic results from estimate the impact of inflation on performance of the agricultural sector in Egypt, It is there a non-linear negative relationship and statistically significant effect between the inflation as an independent variable and agricultural output as dependent variable. Where the increase in the inflation rate lead to a shortage in agricultural output with a decreasing rate. The critical inflation rate in this relationship was about 21.7%, also show there is a positive relationship and statistically significant effect between the inflation as an independent variable and the costs of agricultural production as the dependent variable. Where the increase of the rate of inflation leads to increase in the costs of agriculture production, and vice versa, the critical inflation rate in this relationship has been about 34.9%.
The study recommends the need to work on improving the efficiency of agricultural sector to achieve increased growth rate in the agricultural production compared to other sectors in the Egyptian economic structure. In addition, Increase the private investment to the agricultural sector commensurate with those directed to other sectors, including helping to establish a fictitious agricultural projects and the introduction of advanced technologies and create more work opportunities in the agricultural sector, and stay on support for the agricultural sector. Where the support is the way to control the inflation because its effects on the supplies and quantities of the most important of food commodities as well as the growth rate in the agricultural sector. and the need for price controls and try to find appropriate solutions to reduce the prices, and must fight against any form of monopoly.
Uploads
Papers by Dr. Ahmed Mashaal
The research aims to propose a set of scenarios represent alternatives to the different pattern crops, which it will be achieve the suitable crops pattern in the study area. The study used the goal programming model to maximize the net return of feddan which it was equal 909.3 million Egyptian pound for the current crop pattern and the minimize the used quantities of the irrigation water, which are estimated at 994 million cubic meters of water as average of the period (2010 - 2015), This quantities of water are used to cultivate area of about 246,175 feddan distributed over 17 crop represent the current crop pattern.
By using of the goal programming model, the first, second, third and fourth scenarios led to minimize the consumption of irrigation water quantities, all of them gave a surplus amount to 27.2, 185.5, 222.8, 201.4 million cubic meters of water respectively, while it doesn't achieve the maximization of the net return of feddan, but it achieved deficit compared to the current crop pattern.
However, The fifth and sixth scenarios achieved maximization of the net return of feddan increase of about 74.3, 53.6 Egyptian pound compared to the current crop pattern, and these scenarios achieved the minimization of the used irrigation water amounted to 129.4 156.4 million cubic meters of water compared to the current crop pattern, also the third and sixth scenarios achieved higher cultivated area to complete the development scheme, the rate estimated to 66.3, 67.5% respectively from the total target area amounting to 240.74 thousand feddan.
The study recommends the need to determine area of the depleted crops to irrigation water such as rice, and increase areas of the strategic crops such as wheat and oil crops and the high net return crops such as vegetables, apply of the sixth scenario which maximizes the net return and minimizes the consumption of irrigation water quantities and lead to the completion of development scheme for West channel, expanding the guarantee price for some summer crops such as cotton and corn which it be accept the farmers to cultivate them and decrease of cultivated area of rice, and the formation of unions of water users on the level of canals to regulate irrigation shifts and ensure fair distribution among the beneficiaries.
The study aimed to identify the main internal and external challenges that hinder the achieving Egyptian water safety. Which showed that the important internal challenges are increase of the proportion of water losses and the population growth. Whereas major external challenges are the construction Ethiopian Al-Nahda Dam. In addition, the study examined the economic impact of these challenges on Agriculture in Egypt.
The internal challenges led to decrease in per capita water in Egypt from about 992.16 m3 to about 835.07 m3 during the period (2004 - 2016). Which influenced the programs of horizontal expansion of the Plant farming in the development plan (1997 - 2017). While the external challenges represented by the period of filling the Ethiopian Al-Nahda Dam, which were studied through three proposed scenarios, led to a decrease in Egypt's water quota in the three scenarios about 18.51, 9.24, 6.18 billion m3 respectively, and the Agricultural sector will bear about 14.81, 7.40, 4.94 billion m3 respectively. This decrease in the available water quantities to the Agricultural sector led to a decrease in the cultivated area in the proposed pattern crop compared to the actual pattern crop about -25.39%, -11.01%, 5.94% respectively in the three scenarios. which led to unemployment in the Agricultural employment in the three sector scenarios, which is estimated about 2.15, 0.93 and 0.50 million workers respectively, and the basic needs of Agricultural commodities are decreased to about 29.65, 12.85, 6.91 million persons in Egypt respectively in the proposed scenarios. Thus placing the burden of supplying their needs through imports, because of the low rates of self-sufficiency of most Agricultural commodities, which led to increasing the budget deficit and increase levels of inflation. The study also showed the mechanism how to development of the current water revenue from external and internal sources. Where it was possible to increase the volume of water revenues from external resources by about 20.77 billion m3 and from internal resources about 33.67 billion m3. In addition, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the existing water resources from 50% to 64%, leading to increase the per capita water resources in Egypt to about 945.62 m3 / year when applying these mechanisms together. The study recommends that the state adopt a set of water and Agricultural policies that limit the impact of internal challenges, especially the increase in water losses, high population growth. As well as work to find solutions with the Ethiopian side to prolong the period of filling the Ethiopian dam for more than 9 years to ensure to avoid the negative effects on Agriculture in Egypt. In addition, it aims to increase the current water revenues in Egypt to achieve the Egyptian water security by activating Upper Nile projects with the Nile Basin countries, adopting the policy of mutual Agriculture between them for in order to achieve joint integration. As well as work to complete projects to develop the volume of water revenues from internal resources, which leading to achievement the Egyptian water security.
The study aims to describe and analyze the different formulas used to calculate the
random sample size of agricultural survey researches. Also, determine a suitable formula among
these formulas to calculate the sample size that represents the population, as well as study the
relationship between the population size and the sample size calculated using the different sample
size formulas.
The most important results are the results of the sample size calculated using the different
sample size formulas were identical to those formulas when the uniformity of the conditions,
namely; (α = 0.05; E = 0.05; P = 0.5; Z = 1.96) so the researcher can choose one of these
formulas to calculate the random sample size. The researcher can also use the table (1) in the
study to calculate the sample size. There are no significant differences between the different
formulas to calculate the optimal random sample size for conducting survey research according to
the standard conditions for those formulas. There is no statistically significant increase in the
sample size calculated from the different formulas of the size sample between the Satisfaction
borders, and accordingly it is recommended that the researcher does not need to use the size of
population exceeds the first satisfaction border. There is found the logarithmic function is the
best mathematical functions represent the relationship between the population size and the
sample size calculated through the different formulas to calculate the sample size with
determination Coefficient around to (R2 = 0.995).
The study recommends that according to the results of the calculation of the size sample
using the different formulas when the standardization of the conditions, the researcher can use
one of these formulas where there is no difference in the size sample calculated. The researchers
can useful from the table of the sample size calculated by using different formulas without
programming those formulas in EXCEL. The logarithmic relationship between the population
size and the sample size can be use, especially when the study population size is more than 1000
cases. The study is recommend to create a table to calculate the sample size at the 99% accuracy
level.
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions of the production and consumption for fish in Egypt. In addition to identifying the most important determinants for the demand of fish in Egypt in order to estimate the demand, function for fish by using Autoregressive Districted Lag (ARDL). As well as studying the fish problems and Suggesting the appropriate methods for how to solving it. The study used some of the techniques and econometric models such as linear regression, unit root test and Autoregressive Districted Lag (ARDL) approach to estimating of the demand function for fish in Egypt.
The most important economic results from the estimated econometric model (ARDL) are; there is a negative and statistically significant effect for the fish price and a positive and statistically significant effect for each of the red meat price and the poultry price of and the real gross domestic production on the demand quantity of fish. The short-run of demand elasticity for each of the fish price, red meat price, poultry price, and GDP estimated at about to (-0.197) (0.258) (0.342) (0.644), respectively. While the long-run demand elasticity for the above-mentioned variables estimated at about to (-0.339) (-0.449) (-0.347) (-0.923), respectively, during the study period.
The study recommends the need to establish an integrated database for fish. It is including the all data rerated to the fish of farms and hatcheries, ports and fishing boats and lakes in Egypt. It can be through this database issuing a several reports regarding the productivity of farms, lakes and various fishing ports. As well as the reports related to the numbers of employment and fishing boats. In addition to other reports related to the fish problems and how to solving those problems. As well as the need to create the fish Stock Exchange that, aims to protect the fishermen from the control of some of the wholesalers, provision of fish for consumers at affordable prices through increased supply, encourage fishing and Fish Resources Development, and creating a surplus for export of fish.
This research aimed to estimating the wheat production function in Gharbiya governorate using Stochastic Frontier Approach, in addition to estimating the technical efficiency of the wheat farmers to identify the efficiency of using the agricultural resources. The methodology of study based on use Stochastic Frontier Approach to estimating the technical and economic efficiency of the wheat production. In Addition to the use of One-Way Anova to regression analysis to estimating the wheat cost functions in Gharbiya Governorate for agricultural season 2017.
The most important economic results are there is waste in the resources used by wheat farmers in Gharbiya governorate for the quantity of pesticides, the quantity of chemical fertilizers, the quantity of irrigation water and the quantity of seeds. The average technical efficiency of the wheat farms in Mahalla Al-Kubra, Zifta, Al-Santah and Qatur during the agricultural season of 2017 was estimated about 0.784, 0.835, 0.87 and 0.864 respectively. This means that there is a waste of using these resources in the governorate centers estimated about 21.6%, 16.5%, 13% and 13.6%, respectively. The optimum size for the wheat production that minimize to the costs of Mahalla Al-Kubra, Zifta, Al-Santah and Qatour was 2.81, 3.01, 2.91and 3.19 ton/feddan respectively.
The study recommends applied the Stochastic Frontier Approach for many strategic crops, commensurate with the number of inputs and factors affecting technical inefficiency, this is useful to decision-maker to determine the best ways to manage agricultural resources by crop type. The weakness of technical efficiency for white farms due to conditions under the control of the farmers, where they can control and change them such as reducing the quantity of pesticides, the quantity of chemical fertilizers, the quantity of irrigation water and the quantity of seeds. This calls for raising awareness among farmers in Al Gharbiya Governorate by using the appropriate quantity and the suitable time to use these resources so as not to cause waste of the use. As well as the adoption of a productivity policy basis on linking prices to production costs, in order to work to raise the price of crop annually at a rate consistent with the rate of increase the production costs of wheat crop.
The research aimed to study the technical and economic efficiency of the research stations in the Desert Research Center to identifying the reasons that led to the weak development role of some of these stations and their inability to achieve the research objectives according to the research strategy of the center.
The most important economic results showed that the average technical efficiency of the research stations in the center in the case of the fixed return of scale was about 59.8%, while in the case of the variable return of scale was about 78.1%. The average economic efficiency of the research stations in the center was about 60.2%. While the estimated optimal size of the economic resources in terms of the number of human resources, the number of researchers in the stations was increased from about 7.45 to 9.91 researchers. The number of employees decreased from 59.45 to 21.09. The optimal size of financial resources shows the possibility of reducing the budget coverage of the needs of research stations from about 35.9% to 26.6%.
The most important problems and obstacles faced by research stations was the poor maintenance of machines and equipment in the first place, followed by both weak scientific and laboratory equipment, delayed access to production requirements, and lack of basic researchers' needs.
The study recommends the center to complete the agricultural and non-agricultural infrastructure for the research stations, the need to carry out the periodic maintenance of the machines and equipment, the rehabilitation of the scientific infrastructure in terms of laboratories, paper and electronic libraries, training rooms, to transferring knowledge and modern technology applications to desert communities
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for the consumption of both meat and poultry meat and fish in Egypt, Identifying the most important Variables that affect the demand for meat, and estimating the demand of meat in Egypt during the period (1990-2017) by using The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS).
The most important economic results from the estimated Demand of meat are; the increase in the proportion of consumption expenditure in Egypt on red meat compared to the consumption expenditure on both poultry meat and fish, which was about 58%, 18% and 24% respectively. The results of estimated demand of meat refers to the price elasticity of demand indicate that the demand for red meat, poultry meat and fish is inflexible. In addition, the values of the elasticities coefficient shows that both the red meat, poultry meat and fish are substitute commodities. The value of the expenditure elasticity coefficient indicate that each of the three meat groups (red meat, poultry meat, fish) are basic and essential commodities for consumers in Egypt during the study period.
The high expenditure elasticity of the red meat, the study recommends the need to increase the production of red meat to ensure that it is available at prices suitable for low-income consumers. In addition, encouraging the breeding, production and fattening of calves. Moreover, encouraging calf breeders and provide them the animal feed at reasonable prices. This will be leading to increased production of red meat, and more attention must be increasing the production of poultry meat and fish as alternatives to red meat and focusing on fish farming through modern techniques and the intensification of production processes can achieve a significant increase in fish production.
This the research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for both performance of the agricultural sector and inflation in Egypt. In addition to identifying the most important determinants that affect performance of the agricultural sector in Egypt. As well as to estimate the impact of inflation on the performance of agricultural sector by using a fixed-effects with one critical level models , and suggesting a set of measures and solutions to reduce the negative effects of inflation on the agricultural sector in Egypt. The study used some of the techniques and economic models such as linear regression, and fixed effects with one critical level models.
The most important economic results from estimate the impact of inflation on performance of the agricultural sector in Egypt, It is there a non-linear negative relationship and statistically significant effect between the inflation as an independent variable and agricultural output as dependent variable. Where the increase in the inflation rate lead to a shortage in agricultural output with a decreasing rate. The critical inflation rate in this relationship was about 21.7%, also show there is a positive relationship and statistically significant effect between the inflation as an independent variable and the costs of agricultural production as the dependent variable. Where the increase of the rate of inflation leads to increase in the costs of agriculture production, and vice versa, the critical inflation rate in this relationship has been about 34.9%.
The study recommends the need to work on improving the efficiency of agricultural sector to achieve increased growth rate in the agricultural production compared to other sectors in the Egyptian economic structure. In addition, Increase the private investment to the agricultural sector commensurate with those directed to other sectors, including helping to establish a fictitious agricultural projects and the introduction of advanced technologies and create more work opportunities in the agricultural sector, and stay on support for the agricultural sector. Where the support is the way to control the inflation because its effects on the supplies and quantities of the most important of food commodities as well as the growth rate in the agricultural sector. and the need for price controls and try to find appropriate solutions to reduce the prices, and must fight against any form of monopoly.
The research aims to propose a set of scenarios represent alternatives to the different pattern crops, which it will be achieve the suitable crops pattern in the study area. The study used the goal programming model to maximize the net return of feddan which it was equal 909.3 million Egyptian pound for the current crop pattern and the minimize the used quantities of the irrigation water, which are estimated at 994 million cubic meters of water as average of the period (2010 - 2015), This quantities of water are used to cultivate area of about 246,175 feddan distributed over 17 crop represent the current crop pattern.
By using of the goal programming model, the first, second, third and fourth scenarios led to minimize the consumption of irrigation water quantities, all of them gave a surplus amount to 27.2, 185.5, 222.8, 201.4 million cubic meters of water respectively, while it doesn't achieve the maximization of the net return of feddan, but it achieved deficit compared to the current crop pattern.
However, The fifth and sixth scenarios achieved maximization of the net return of feddan increase of about 74.3, 53.6 Egyptian pound compared to the current crop pattern, and these scenarios achieved the minimization of the used irrigation water amounted to 129.4 156.4 million cubic meters of water compared to the current crop pattern, also the third and sixth scenarios achieved higher cultivated area to complete the development scheme, the rate estimated to 66.3, 67.5% respectively from the total target area amounting to 240.74 thousand feddan.
The study recommends the need to determine area of the depleted crops to irrigation water such as rice, and increase areas of the strategic crops such as wheat and oil crops and the high net return crops such as vegetables, apply of the sixth scenario which maximizes the net return and minimizes the consumption of irrigation water quantities and lead to the completion of development scheme for West channel, expanding the guarantee price for some summer crops such as cotton and corn which it be accept the farmers to cultivate them and decrease of cultivated area of rice, and the formation of unions of water users on the level of canals to regulate irrigation shifts and ensure fair distribution among the beneficiaries.
The study aimed to identify the main internal and external challenges that hinder the achieving Egyptian water safety. Which showed that the important internal challenges are increase of the proportion of water losses and the population growth. Whereas major external challenges are the construction Ethiopian Al-Nahda Dam. In addition, the study examined the economic impact of these challenges on Agriculture in Egypt.
The internal challenges led to decrease in per capita water in Egypt from about 992.16 m3 to about 835.07 m3 during the period (2004 - 2016). Which influenced the programs of horizontal expansion of the Plant farming in the development plan (1997 - 2017). While the external challenges represented by the period of filling the Ethiopian Al-Nahda Dam, which were studied through three proposed scenarios, led to a decrease in Egypt's water quota in the three scenarios about 18.51, 9.24, 6.18 billion m3 respectively, and the Agricultural sector will bear about 14.81, 7.40, 4.94 billion m3 respectively. This decrease in the available water quantities to the Agricultural sector led to a decrease in the cultivated area in the proposed pattern crop compared to the actual pattern crop about -25.39%, -11.01%, 5.94% respectively in the three scenarios. which led to unemployment in the Agricultural employment in the three sector scenarios, which is estimated about 2.15, 0.93 and 0.50 million workers respectively, and the basic needs of Agricultural commodities are decreased to about 29.65, 12.85, 6.91 million persons in Egypt respectively in the proposed scenarios. Thus placing the burden of supplying their needs through imports, because of the low rates of self-sufficiency of most Agricultural commodities, which led to increasing the budget deficit and increase levels of inflation. The study also showed the mechanism how to development of the current water revenue from external and internal sources. Where it was possible to increase the volume of water revenues from external resources by about 20.77 billion m3 and from internal resources about 33.67 billion m3. In addition, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the existing water resources from 50% to 64%, leading to increase the per capita water resources in Egypt to about 945.62 m3 / year when applying these mechanisms together. The study recommends that the state adopt a set of water and Agricultural policies that limit the impact of internal challenges, especially the increase in water losses, high population growth. As well as work to find solutions with the Ethiopian side to prolong the period of filling the Ethiopian dam for more than 9 years to ensure to avoid the negative effects on Agriculture in Egypt. In addition, it aims to increase the current water revenues in Egypt to achieve the Egyptian water security by activating Upper Nile projects with the Nile Basin countries, adopting the policy of mutual Agriculture between them for in order to achieve joint integration. As well as work to complete projects to develop the volume of water revenues from internal resources, which leading to achievement the Egyptian water security.
The study aims to describe and analyze the different formulas used to calculate the
random sample size of agricultural survey researches. Also, determine a suitable formula among
these formulas to calculate the sample size that represents the population, as well as study the
relationship between the population size and the sample size calculated using the different sample
size formulas.
The most important results are the results of the sample size calculated using the different
sample size formulas were identical to those formulas when the uniformity of the conditions,
namely; (α = 0.05; E = 0.05; P = 0.5; Z = 1.96) so the researcher can choose one of these
formulas to calculate the random sample size. The researcher can also use the table (1) in the
study to calculate the sample size. There are no significant differences between the different
formulas to calculate the optimal random sample size for conducting survey research according to
the standard conditions for those formulas. There is no statistically significant increase in the
sample size calculated from the different formulas of the size sample between the Satisfaction
borders, and accordingly it is recommended that the researcher does not need to use the size of
population exceeds the first satisfaction border. There is found the logarithmic function is the
best mathematical functions represent the relationship between the population size and the
sample size calculated through the different formulas to calculate the sample size with
determination Coefficient around to (R2 = 0.995).
The study recommends that according to the results of the calculation of the size sample
using the different formulas when the standardization of the conditions, the researcher can use
one of these formulas where there is no difference in the size sample calculated. The researchers
can useful from the table of the sample size calculated by using different formulas without
programming those formulas in EXCEL. The logarithmic relationship between the population
size and the sample size can be use, especially when the study population size is more than 1000
cases. The study is recommend to create a table to calculate the sample size at the 99% accuracy
level.
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions of the production and consumption for fish in Egypt. In addition to identifying the most important determinants for the demand of fish in Egypt in order to estimate the demand, function for fish by using Autoregressive Districted Lag (ARDL). As well as studying the fish problems and Suggesting the appropriate methods for how to solving it. The study used some of the techniques and econometric models such as linear regression, unit root test and Autoregressive Districted Lag (ARDL) approach to estimating of the demand function for fish in Egypt.
The most important economic results from the estimated econometric model (ARDL) are; there is a negative and statistically significant effect for the fish price and a positive and statistically significant effect for each of the red meat price and the poultry price of and the real gross domestic production on the demand quantity of fish. The short-run of demand elasticity for each of the fish price, red meat price, poultry price, and GDP estimated at about to (-0.197) (0.258) (0.342) (0.644), respectively. While the long-run demand elasticity for the above-mentioned variables estimated at about to (-0.339) (-0.449) (-0.347) (-0.923), respectively, during the study period.
The study recommends the need to establish an integrated database for fish. It is including the all data rerated to the fish of farms and hatcheries, ports and fishing boats and lakes in Egypt. It can be through this database issuing a several reports regarding the productivity of farms, lakes and various fishing ports. As well as the reports related to the numbers of employment and fishing boats. In addition to other reports related to the fish problems and how to solving those problems. As well as the need to create the fish Stock Exchange that, aims to protect the fishermen from the control of some of the wholesalers, provision of fish for consumers at affordable prices through increased supply, encourage fishing and Fish Resources Development, and creating a surplus for export of fish.
This research aimed to estimating the wheat production function in Gharbiya governorate using Stochastic Frontier Approach, in addition to estimating the technical efficiency of the wheat farmers to identify the efficiency of using the agricultural resources. The methodology of study based on use Stochastic Frontier Approach to estimating the technical and economic efficiency of the wheat production. In Addition to the use of One-Way Anova to regression analysis to estimating the wheat cost functions in Gharbiya Governorate for agricultural season 2017.
The most important economic results are there is waste in the resources used by wheat farmers in Gharbiya governorate for the quantity of pesticides, the quantity of chemical fertilizers, the quantity of irrigation water and the quantity of seeds. The average technical efficiency of the wheat farms in Mahalla Al-Kubra, Zifta, Al-Santah and Qatur during the agricultural season of 2017 was estimated about 0.784, 0.835, 0.87 and 0.864 respectively. This means that there is a waste of using these resources in the governorate centers estimated about 21.6%, 16.5%, 13% and 13.6%, respectively. The optimum size for the wheat production that minimize to the costs of Mahalla Al-Kubra, Zifta, Al-Santah and Qatour was 2.81, 3.01, 2.91and 3.19 ton/feddan respectively.
The study recommends applied the Stochastic Frontier Approach for many strategic crops, commensurate with the number of inputs and factors affecting technical inefficiency, this is useful to decision-maker to determine the best ways to manage agricultural resources by crop type. The weakness of technical efficiency for white farms due to conditions under the control of the farmers, where they can control and change them such as reducing the quantity of pesticides, the quantity of chemical fertilizers, the quantity of irrigation water and the quantity of seeds. This calls for raising awareness among farmers in Al Gharbiya Governorate by using the appropriate quantity and the suitable time to use these resources so as not to cause waste of the use. As well as the adoption of a productivity policy basis on linking prices to production costs, in order to work to raise the price of crop annually at a rate consistent with the rate of increase the production costs of wheat crop.
The research aimed to study the technical and economic efficiency of the research stations in the Desert Research Center to identifying the reasons that led to the weak development role of some of these stations and their inability to achieve the research objectives according to the research strategy of the center.
The most important economic results showed that the average technical efficiency of the research stations in the center in the case of the fixed return of scale was about 59.8%, while in the case of the variable return of scale was about 78.1%. The average economic efficiency of the research stations in the center was about 60.2%. While the estimated optimal size of the economic resources in terms of the number of human resources, the number of researchers in the stations was increased from about 7.45 to 9.91 researchers. The number of employees decreased from 59.45 to 21.09. The optimal size of financial resources shows the possibility of reducing the budget coverage of the needs of research stations from about 35.9% to 26.6%.
The most important problems and obstacles faced by research stations was the poor maintenance of machines and equipment in the first place, followed by both weak scientific and laboratory equipment, delayed access to production requirements, and lack of basic researchers' needs.
The study recommends the center to complete the agricultural and non-agricultural infrastructure for the research stations, the need to carry out the periodic maintenance of the machines and equipment, the rehabilitation of the scientific infrastructure in terms of laboratories, paper and electronic libraries, training rooms, to transferring knowledge and modern technology applications to desert communities
This research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for the consumption of both meat and poultry meat and fish in Egypt, Identifying the most important Variables that affect the demand for meat, and estimating the demand of meat in Egypt during the period (1990-2017) by using The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS).
The most important economic results from the estimated Demand of meat are; the increase in the proportion of consumption expenditure in Egypt on red meat compared to the consumption expenditure on both poultry meat and fish, which was about 58%, 18% and 24% respectively. The results of estimated demand of meat refers to the price elasticity of demand indicate that the demand for red meat, poultry meat and fish is inflexible. In addition, the values of the elasticities coefficient shows that both the red meat, poultry meat and fish are substitute commodities. The value of the expenditure elasticity coefficient indicate that each of the three meat groups (red meat, poultry meat, fish) are basic and essential commodities for consumers in Egypt during the study period.
The high expenditure elasticity of the red meat, the study recommends the need to increase the production of red meat to ensure that it is available at prices suitable for low-income consumers. In addition, encouraging the breeding, production and fattening of calves. Moreover, encouraging calf breeders and provide them the animal feed at reasonable prices. This will be leading to increased production of red meat, and more attention must be increasing the production of poultry meat and fish as alternatives to red meat and focusing on fish farming through modern techniques and the intensification of production processes can achieve a significant increase in fish production.
This the research aimed to study and analyze the current situation and predictions for both performance of the agricultural sector and inflation in Egypt. In addition to identifying the most important determinants that affect performance of the agricultural sector in Egypt. As well as to estimate the impact of inflation on the performance of agricultural sector by using a fixed-effects with one critical level models , and suggesting a set of measures and solutions to reduce the negative effects of inflation on the agricultural sector in Egypt. The study used some of the techniques and economic models such as linear regression, and fixed effects with one critical level models.
The most important economic results from estimate the impact of inflation on performance of the agricultural sector in Egypt, It is there a non-linear negative relationship and statistically significant effect between the inflation as an independent variable and agricultural output as dependent variable. Where the increase in the inflation rate lead to a shortage in agricultural output with a decreasing rate. The critical inflation rate in this relationship was about 21.7%, also show there is a positive relationship and statistically significant effect between the inflation as an independent variable and the costs of agricultural production as the dependent variable. Where the increase of the rate of inflation leads to increase in the costs of agriculture production, and vice versa, the critical inflation rate in this relationship has been about 34.9%.
The study recommends the need to work on improving the efficiency of agricultural sector to achieve increased growth rate in the agricultural production compared to other sectors in the Egyptian economic structure. In addition, Increase the private investment to the agricultural sector commensurate with those directed to other sectors, including helping to establish a fictitious agricultural projects and the introduction of advanced technologies and create more work opportunities in the agricultural sector, and stay on support for the agricultural sector. Where the support is the way to control the inflation because its effects on the supplies and quantities of the most important of food commodities as well as the growth rate in the agricultural sector. and the need for price controls and try to find appropriate solutions to reduce the prices, and must fight against any form of monopoly.