Papers by Thomas McGuckin
Transactions of the ASAE, 1982
E CONOMIC analysis is applied to the Wet Fractionation System which mechanically dewaters forages... more E CONOMIC analysis is applied to the Wet Fractionation System which mechanically dewaters forages and eliminates the risk of weather damages and delays. The present value bid price determined by simulation and linear programming ranges from $32,700 for a small farm with 50 acres of alfalfa to $183,900 for a large farm. Estimates of manfacturing costs are $60,000, indicating that the technology is feasible on large forage-dairy farms. Analysis assumes all products are used on-farm. Off-farm marketing of the protein extract will greatly increase the market for the technology and substantially influence the market for protein concentrate.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Feb 1, 1987
A dynamic programming model of irrigation scheduling is developed which accounts for stochastic w... more A dynamic programming model of irrigation scheduling is developed which accounts for stochastic weather conditions, results in simple irrigation decision rules, and can be operated on current microcomputers. The model employs heat unit intervals instead of chronological time to define the dynamic equations of the crop‐soil system. Procedures are outlined for estimating the transition probabilities of climate within the heat unit intervals. When compared to maximum yield irrigation scheduling, the model increases net returns of corn, sorghum, and cotton by $@@‐@@10.00 to $@@‐@@30.00 per acre.
The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) is responsible for maintaining a series of... more The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) is responsible for maintaining a series of flood-control projects beginning in New Mexico and extending along the Rio Grande's international border dividing the United States and Mexico. A review by the USIBWC indicate that, over ...
Transactions of the ASAE, 1985
M ONTHLY evapotranspiration (E t) of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)... more M ONTHLY evapotranspiration (E t) of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), corn (Zea mays L.), and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L) Moench) was measured in nonweighing lysimeters for various years and locations in New Mexico to evaluate the effects of various climatic conditions. Potential evapotranspiration (E 0) was determined using Penman's equation, and a crop coefficient (the ratio of E t to E 0) was determined for each month of the growing season for each crop. Growingdegree-days (G) were determined from temperature data. A third order polynomial crop curve, relating crop coefficient to cumulative G, was estimated for each crop. There was no statistical difference in the crop curve between locations in New Mexico. The coefficient of determination (r 2) of the combined polynomial for alfalfa was 0.70. Accumulated G had less variability than calendar days in predicting the time duration to harvest for corn and sorghum, but not for cotton.
Knight et al. provide a useful overview of several computerized risk management models for farmer... more Knight et al. provide a useful overview of several computerized risk management models for farmers. The authors concentrate on the input, output of the computer programs, and thus it is a little difficult to understand the fundamental relationships of the models, the assumptions concerning risk, probabilities and the underlying farm processes. Without a full description of the models, it is difficult to be critical. However, it seems that these models may be too specialized for general use in agricultural risk management.
Recent Bureau of Reclamation policies encourage or require irrigation districts to adopt price co... more Recent Bureau of Reclamation policies encourage or require irrigation districts to adopt price conservation incentives. Using unpublished survey results and new district-level information, we examine the rate structures and incentives of district water pricing. Our findings reveal that the majority of districts use fixed charges independent of the quantity of water delivered and that most conservation rate structures recently implemented are designed so that the first tier quantity allocation satisfies most crop water needs. Although other district management objectives may be satisfied, price incentives are diminished or nonexistent. The question of whether conservation is being achieved is tautological and depends on how each district defines conservation.
A binary choice model was used to identify the attributes that influence irrigation district adop... more A binary choice model was used to identify the attributes that influence irrigation district adoption of conservation rate structures. Using principles of rate design and irrigation district administration as a framework, measures of irrigation district rate structure objectives and physical and economic conditions were developed. The factors investigated characterize the constraints under which districts operate, value and cost of water, quantity of water delivered and revenue risk for districts. Rate structure adoption was predicted with over 75% accuracy. Both significant and non-significant factors are key to understanding rate choice. Districts were more likely to adopt conservation rate pricing when the cost of water to farmers was greater, higher value crops were grown and in areas with warmer and longer growing seasons. These conditions may be interpreted as reflecting the presence of greater opportunity costs in allocating water between low and higher valued uses. Conservat...
Water Resources Research, 1992
A stochastic.production frontier model of irrigation is used to analyze sources of economic ineff... more A stochastic.production frontier model of irrigation is used to analyze sources of economic inefficiency in irrigation practices of Nebraska corn producers and the extent that field information from soil moisture monitoring, commercial scheduling and/or weather reports increases economic efficiency. The results indicate that farm irrigation practices have an average technical efficiency of 81% (defined as the ratio of actualized production to maximum potential production for a level of inputs). Field information from moisture sensors can improve technical efficiency by 3.9%. The value of information provided by moisture sensors depends on the technical efficiency of the farmer and ranges from $58.23 per hectare for an efficient farmer to $40.29 for an inefficient producer. The elasticity of derived demand for water is estimated to be-1.095. A prerequisite to improving water conservation is to identify the causes of irrigation inefficiency, defined here as the use of more water than is economically justified to irrigate crops. With controlled experiments, the researcher can isolate and test hypotheses concerning irrigation efficiency; however, such experiments are invariably conducted outside of an economic environment. When actual farm observations are used to analyze irrigation practices, three problems are apparent: (1) it is difficult to separate economic and technical factors that lead to inefficient irrigation practices; (2) statistically derived production parameters represent average practices and include inefficiency within the estimates; and (3) observations of farm practices and variables affecting irrigation are usually incomplete and/or aggregated. Antle and Hatchett [1986] note all three of these problems in their analysis of irrigated wheat in California. Advances in econometrics have resulted in procedures that use the profit maximization model to analyze inefficient irrigation practices. The stochastic production frontier (SPF) estimation addresses the problems outlined above in the following ways: (1) irrigation decisions are analyzed within the conditions of profit maximization so that economic efficiency is separated from technical inefficiency, thereby allowing analysis of inefficient irrigation sources; (2) the parameters of the stochastic production frontier represent the most efficient irrigation practices; and (3) by specifying the sources of irrigation inefficiency, the SPF isolates the effects of unobservable or aggregated variables as contributing factors to either inefficiency or random disturbances. The objectives of this paper are to (1) illustrate the stochastic production frontier estimation procedure and (2)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1994
This article analyzes the separate effects of technical efficiency and risk attitudes on the adop... more This article analyzes the separate effects of technical efficiency and risk attitudes on the adoption of new technologies. We develop a model of firm behavior that incorporates both risk preferences and inefficiency into input and output decisions of the firm. The separate effects of risk aversion and inefficiency on adoption deicisions are estimated econometrically. In the first step, we estimate technical inefficiency using the stochastic frontier approach. These inefficiencies, along with the variables representing risk preferences, are used in the second step to explain adoption of new technologies. This framework is applied to explain adoption decisions of U.S. dairy farmers. Modeling adoption of new technology has always intrigued economists. The role of technological advance in a modern society was first recognized by Adam Smith, Malthus, and Ricardo (see Kamein and Schwartz [20]). However, it was Schumpeter in the three works, The Theory of Economic Development, Business Cycles, and Capitalism, Socialism andDemocracy who portrayed the active role played by economic agents in technological progress [29-3 11. Further refinements of the Schumpeterian view were advanced by Denison [9], Griliches [ 131, and Kendrick [21], and have encouraged economists to pursue the quest for explaining technological progress. Given this impressive start, it is discouraging to note that microeconomic models have not adequately explained why some firms adopt new productive technologies and other firms do not. Feder, Just, and Zilberman [l l] extensively review this state of affairs. Much of the previous research has employed one of two alternative methodologies to model adoption: 1) the expected-utility model of firm behavior or 2) a firm-inefficiency model. However, the conclusions drawn from using one of these two methodologies inevitably invites the criticism that development policies lack generality at best, or are misguided at worst (see, for example, Shapiro [28], and McPherson [26]). Given an environment of the same prices and available technologies, economic inefficiency (Farrell [lo]), and risk aversion of decision makers result in negative divergence
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2008
This paper uses a system of differential equations to describe the insurgency in Iraq. The system... more This paper uses a system of differential equations to describe the insurgency in Iraq. The system has four possible outcomes or cases: (1) The U.S.-led coalition increases in size and the number of attacks by the insurgents increases. (2) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of attacks by insurgents decreases. (3) The size of the U.S.-led coalition increases and the number of insurgent attacks decreases. (4) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of insurgent attacks increases. Which case is relevant depends on the recruitment rates of the U.S.-led coalition and insurgents as well as the combat effectiveness of both sides. Policy implications are provided.
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2004
A market-based water supply problem is modeled as an optimization problem maximizing net benefit ... more A market-based water supply problem is modeled as an optimization problem maximizing net benefit from water use such that all the concerned parties use an economically optimal allocation considering damages due to total dissolved solids (TDS) and institutional constraints. These institutional constraints include water supply requirements under international treaty and historical allocations of water to agriculture. The income from water in municipal use, based on the concept of consumer surplus, is utilized in the objective function along with benefit from agricultural uses, supply costs, and damage costs due to poor quality water, which are estimated using available data. The research assesses the impact that system-wide optimal allocation of water will have in increasing monetary benefits and reducing water salinity levels in terms of TDS along the reach of the Rio Grande from Elephant Butte, New Mexico, to Fort Quitman, Texas. The analysis is performed under three institutional constraints, which include flow regulation at the reservoir, restrictions on trade between states, and allowing trade between the states. Among these scenarios, allowing trade between the states results in the best solution in terms of both net benefit and reducing damage due to poor quality water.
Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1999
Water providers nationwide are implementing nonprice conservation measures such as education, pub... more Water providers nationwide are implementing nonprice conservation measures such as education, public information, appliance retrofit and ordinances, with the expectation that these programs will reduce residential water demand. However, little empirical information exists on the effectiveness of nonprice conservation programs in reducing water demand. Previous econometric studies indicate these programs have had minimal impact. We examine the types and number of major nonprice conservation programs that have been implemented during an 11-year period in seven cities in the southwestern United States. A cross sectional, monthly time series residential water demand model, with parameters to control for variation in prices, temperature, precipitation and other factors, was used to empirically investigate the effectiveness of nonprice conservation programs in reducing water demand. We found significant reductions in use ranging between 1.1 percent and 4.0 percent per program. Because of the lack of information, we were unable to distinguish the effectiveness of individual or specific types of programs. Beyond finding that nonprice programs can be effective in reducing demand, questions regarding the efficiency and benefits to be achieved by conservation remain. As a step towards separating and evaluating the effects of individual programs, program benefits and efficiency, we recommend that utilities maintain more detailed and consistent information regarding the implementation of their nonprice programs.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1981
Chemical constituents dissolved in household water supplies can cause economic damages in the for... more Chemical constituents dissolved in household water supplies can cause economic damages in the form of reduced life of water-using appliances and pipes. Technological advances in reducing desalination costs and improved measures of damages have changed the conditions under which desalination of brackish water supplies can be considered to be economically feasible. The analysis shows that estimated benefits of desalination exceed costs for some communities with high saline native waters, such as are found in the Arkansas River Valley of eastern Colorado and elsewhere in the Southwest.
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1991
This article investigates farm-level efficiency of U.S. dairy farmers by estimating their technic... more This article investigates farm-level efficiency of U.S. dairy farmers by estimating their technical and allocative efficiency. Technical inefficiency is assumed to be composed of a deterministic component that is a function of some farm-specific characteristics and a random component. By doing this we extend the stochastic frontier methodology in which determinants of technicial inefficiency are explicitly introduced in the model.
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 1989
A major difficulty with the US milk price support program is the instability in fiscal budg-eting... more A major difficulty with the US milk price support program is the instability in fiscal budg-eting caused by the rapid technological change occurring in the industry. Further, the intro-duction of foreseeable new technologies such as synthetic bovine Somatotropin (bST) will ...
Charging farmers increasing block prices for irrigation deliveries is advocated as a means of enc... more Charging farmers increasing block prices for irrigation deliveries is advocated as a means of encouraging agricultural water conservation in the West. We formulated a model of a hypothetical irrigated river basin to investigate the hyrdro-economic circumstances in which such pricing leads to water conservation. Our results indicate that increasing delivery prices may encourage irrigators to make adjustments with countervailing impacts on consumptive water use and conservation. Whether these countervailing impacts combine to conserve water or increase its consumptive use must be resolved empirically. An alternative resolution of this ambiguity is to assess water prices in terms of consumptive use.
Studies in Risk and Uncertainty, 1994
Issues associated with natural resources damages, and how such damages might be measured as neces... more Issues associated with natural resources damages, and how such damages might be measured as necessary for the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA), are of obvious contemporary concern to the mining industry and to resource/environmental economists. Over the past few years, the bulk of this concern has focused on the issue of how such damages might
Land Economics, 1994
... same applies to the individ-ual. In this case a bid that is within 99 cents of the individual... more ... same applies to the individ-ual. In this case a bid that is within 99 cents of the individual's true (round-dollar) valuation will not change the probability that the individual's bid will win. IoSubjects in the Painting experiment were ...
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Papers by Thomas McGuckin