Papers by Polina Sinovets
Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review
This article explores escalation as a tool which is being used in Russian military strategy in th... more This article explores escalation as a tool which is being used in Russian military strategy in the twenty-first century. This method of operation has been transformed from a purely defensive deterrence asset which was valid at the beginning of the 2000s into an element of aggressive deterrence, one which bases itself on Russia presenting Crimea’s annexation as a fait accompli. The authors conclude that the strategic value for Moscow of the Black Sea region has grown with the annexation of Crimea, so that it now surpasses the value of the Baltic region. This can be inferred by comparing the Russian military potential which is present in both regions, as well as through related doctrines and corresponding decisions. To a major extent, the Russian stance in the Baltic plays a coercive role in its strategy: it aims to boost deterrence on the Black Sea, where Moscow sees itself as being more vulnerable.
Political, economic and cultural borders are usually different from geographical ones; this also ... more Political, economic and cultural borders are usually different from geographical ones; this also applies to the Black Sea region. Only six countries border the Black Sea: Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia and Turkey. But the Charter of the Organization of Black Sea Cooperation (BSEC) was also signed by Albania, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Greece. Moldova can be geographically considered a part of the Black Sea region, as it is located between Ukraine and Romania and is close to the Black Sea. Greece is close to the mouth of the Bosporus, which connects the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Armenia does not border the Black Sea, but is located near it. Two other countries are located on the shores of other seas connected to the Black Sea by many waterways: Azerbaijan (via the Caspian) and Albania (via the Adriatic). Therefore, the definition of the Black Sea is based on the signing of the BSEC, which laid the foundation for modern economic and political relations between 1...
Actual Problems of International Relations, 2020
Since 2002 until now, the Iranian nuclear program remains one of the hottest international proble... more Since 2002 until now, the Iranian nuclear program remains one of the hottest international problems despite the efforts of three US presidential administrations, which ruled during this time to solve the Iranian issue. This article analyses and compares the policy toward Iran of three US presidents George Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, discusses the positive and negative consequences of their attempts to solve the Iranian nuclear issue, and outlines the future prospects of US-Iran communication over the nuclear deal. President Trump's policy on Iran was somewhat similar to that of President Bush, both presidents rejected the policy of any concessions to Iran and focused on the policy of pressure. The US withdrawal from the JCPOA influenced not only the relations between the US and Iran, but also the relations of European countries, as since its release in 2018, Europe has tried to save the JCPOA and deter Iran from resuming its nuclear program. In general, Trump's pol...
Nuclear Security During Armed Conflict: Lessons From Ukraine
Nuclear security threats in the Black Sea region went through momentous changes between the 1990s... more Nuclear security threats in the Black Sea region went through momentous changes between the 1990s and 2023. Up to 2014 the region was known as the location for the most high-profile cases of nuclear smuggling. In 2014 Ukraine lost control of parts of its territory and borders, which exacerbated the same nuclear security challenges. Attacks on nuclear installations were still seen as unlikely. In 2022 the Russian military did attack Ukrainian nuclear facilities. The Ukrainian nuclear security regime began to adapt, shifting focus to protecting nuclear installations in extraordinary circumstances. Black Sea states began to recognize Ukrainian territories affected by armed conflict as a source of nuclear security risks. Large nuclear security events with radiological consequences for the Black Sea region are now seen as viable risks. A companion paper describes how attacks on nuclear installations in Ukraine have changed the international nuclear security framework.
Ukraine’s Nuclear History, 2022
1 Dr. Polina Sinovets is an associate professor at the Odessa National I.I. Mechnikov University,... more 1 Dr. Polina Sinovets is an associate professor at the Odessa National I.I. Mechnikov University, Ukraine; Dr. Bettina Renz is an associate professor at the University of Nottingham, UK. The views expressed in this paper are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NATO Defense College or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 2 X. [G. Kennan], “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” Foreign Affairs, July 1947, p.571. 3 Voyennaya Doktrina Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation], December 26, 2014, http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/41d527556bec8deb3530.pdf “Today the major part of the structure of Soviet power is committed to the perfection of the dictatorship and to the maintenance of the concept of Russia as in a state of siege, with the enemy lowering beyond the walls. And the millions of human beings who form that part of the structure of power must defend at all costs this concept of Russia's position, for ...
Baltic-Black Sea Regionalisms, 2019
The key research question of the chapter is how the confrontation between Russia and the USA affe... more The key research question of the chapter is how the confrontation between Russia and the USA affects arms control race in the Baltic–Black Sea region (BBSR). The paper hypothesizes that the region is a hotbed of clashes between NATO and Russia and the main source of a potential conflict between them. The range of issues discussed by the authors includes Russian coercive strategy and the attempts of NATO allies to confront it. In particular, this confrontation has three dimensions: Russia’s potential conventional aggression against the Baltic–Black Sea region, the deployment of European Missile Defense, and the death of the INF Treaty. The latter turns the hard power element into the key issue of NATO–Russia relations.
Політичні, економічні та культурні кордони, як правило, є відмінними від географічних; це стосуєт... more Політичні, економічні та культурні кордони, як правило, є відмінними від географічних; це стосується й Чорноморського регіону (ЧР). З Чорним морем межує всього шість країн: Болгарія, Румунія, Україна, Росія, Грузія та Туреччина. Але Хартію про чорноморське співробітництво – ЧЕС (BSEC) – підписали також Албанія, Молдова, Азербайджан, Вірменія та Греція. Молдову географічно можна віднести до Чорноморського регіону, адже вона розташована між Україною та Румунією близько до Чорного моря. Греція наближена до гирла Босфору, що з’єднує Чорне та Середземне моря. Вірменія не межує з Чорним морем, але розташована недалеко від нього. Ще дві країни розташовані на берегах інших морів, пов’язаних з Чорномор’ям безліччю зв’язків: Азербайджан – Каспійського, Албанія – Адріатичного. Тому за основу визначення ЧР взято саме підписання ЧЕС, що стало підґрунтям для сучасних економічних та політичних взаємозв’язків 11-ти країн регіону. Однак, актуальність монографії пов’язана насамперед з тим, що ОЧЕС та...
Odesa National University Herald. Sociology and Politics, 2018
The latest decade turned to be critical for the Nonproliferation regime. The crisis of the securi... more The latest decade turned to be critical for the Nonproliferation regime. The crisis of the security assurances, the growing role of nuclear weapons in politics as well as the emergence of the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty, trying to present the alternative to the NPT: all these trends threaten the stability of the Treaty and the integrity of the regime in general.
Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, 2024
This paper delves into France’s nuclear capabilities and credibility, examining its evolving stra... more This paper delves into France’s nuclear capabilities and credibility, examining its evolving strategic posture in response to Russia’s nuclear signaling and the broader geopolitical landscape. Subsequently, it will consider France’s nuclear doctrine and vital interests, analyze the effectiveness of its current deterrence strategy, and assess the impact of the Ukraine war on its future direction. Ultimately, we aim to shed light on how France is navigating the current and latent complex challenges, utilizing its nuclear force as a key element of its national security strategy.
Prospects for U.S.-Russian Arms Control and Strategic Stability, 2018
This has been an eventful year so far for U.S.-Russian relations in the field of nuclear weapons.... more This has been an eventful year so far for U.S.-Russian relations in the field of nuclear weapons. The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) was released in February 2018 and it raised a number of potential future problems for strategic stability. The speech by President Vladimir Putin to the Russian Federal Assembly in March showed that Russia is currently at a high point in strategic arms development. Clashes over arms control treaties, classic Russian misperceptions and strategies of disinformation (about elements in the NPR), and the lack of information exchange and comprehensive dialogue between Moscow and Washington are creating current, and undoubtedly future, frictions in bilateral relations. The most recent Russian Military Doctrine indicates that nuclear weapons remain an important element for "preventing" large-scale conflict. This appears to be a continuum of its "escalate to de-escalate" strategy. For its part, the language, rhetoric, and style of the U.S. NPR indicate both continuity and change (between the Trump and Obama administration's nuclear posture reviews). Perhaps the most noteworthy change is that it seems to address Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" conceptualization by assigning nuclear weapons a significantly larger role. The main motivation is quite clear: paraphrasing the Cold War French ideologist of deterrence Andre de Beaufre, there is no deterrence if an adversary does not believe you are ready to attack. Accordingly, the United States appears to have decided to play Russia's game and talk with Moscow in an analogous "escalate to de-escalate" language. This, in turn, has been highlighted by the Kremlin as a way to sustain anti-American hysteria among the Russian public.
ENEMY AT THE GATES: CURRENT INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES AND THE NONPROLIFERATION ARCHITECTURE, 2018
The latest decade turned to be critical for the Nonproliferation regime. The crisis of the securi... more The latest decade turned to be critical for the Nonproliferation regime. The crisis of the security assurances, the growing role of nuclear weapons in politics as well as the emergence of the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty, trying to present the alternative to the NPT: all these trends threaten the stability of the Treaty and the integrity of the regime in general. Basement of the Study. One of the most visible tendencies of the XXI century is the gradual decline of the global international security regimes. Created in the years of the Cold war they are still considered to be based on the post second world war system with its bipolar structure of international relations, number of poles and the distribution of influence between the actors. Meanwhile the obvious discrepancy between the actual current development of the IR system and its formal superstructure presents the insuffi-ciency of the latter, while showing up in the crisis tendencies, tractable everywhere. Still, one of the regimes, suffering from such discrepancy mostly is the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. In particular the last decade turned to be most vivid in the number of issues demonstrating the incompatibility of the regime structure with the development of the international security architecture. Our hypothesis is that these global structural challenges give certain ground as well as the explanation to the crisis within the NPT regime. The aim of the research is to define to what extent the inconsistency of the current situation is able to affect the regime stability or it will finally contribute to the collapse of the NPT. Analysis of Researches. Currently there are a lot of scholarly works defined with one or the other practical implications of the research, however very few ones are trying to integrate the effectiveness of the NPT regime functioning with consideration for the later trends in the field of international security.
Debating the possible role of the nuclear weapons global ban treaty for the international securit... more Debating the possible role of the nuclear weapons global ban treaty for the international security and the fate of the NPT regime
The last two years have attracted the world's attention to Russia. The annexation of Crimea, the ... more The last two years have attracted the world's attention to Russia. The annexation of Crimea, the hybrid war in Eastern Ukraine, and finally the unexpected interference in Syria—all these actions bring us back to the question of understanding the Russian motivation properly. Generally, it includes the whole interpretation of Russian strategic culture which is based on the research and analysis of the different factors: from literature and history to religion and political nature of the Russian state. Significant attempts to understand Moscow's strategic culture were made by the American experts during the Cold War; therefore the article analyzes the main pillars of Russian strategic culture, its continuity and change in comparison to Soviet times as well as the main reactions of Moscow for what it considers to be a threat.
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Papers by Polina Sinovets
Policy Briefs, Political Comments, Research Notes by Polina Sinovets