The latest scientific framing of climate change emphasises the importance of limiting cumulative emissions and the need to urgently cut CO 2. International agreements on avoiding a 2°C global temperature rise make clear the scale of CO 2 reductions required across all sectors. Set against a context of urgent mitigation, the outlook for aviation's emissions is one of continued growth. Limited opportunities to further improve fuel efficiency, slow uptake of new innovations, coupled with anticipated rises in demand across continents collectively present a huge challenge to aviation in cutting emissions. Whilst difficulties in decarbonising aviation are recognised by industry and policymakers alike, the gap between what's necessary to avoid 2°C and aviation's CO 2 projections has profound implications. Biofuel is one of the few innovations that could play a significant role in closing the gap, but with low anticipated penetration before 2020 its contribution would have little impact over the desired timeframe. If the aviation sector does not urgently address rising emissions, there is an increasing risk that investment in new aircraft and infrastructure could lead to stranded assets. This leaves it facing an uncomfortable reality. Either the sector acts urgently on climate change and curtails rising demand, or it will be failing to take responsibility for a considerable and growing portion of climate change impacts.
What is the disparity between the climate and resource challenges we face and the measures in pla... more What is the disparity between the climate and resource challenges we face and the measures in place to meet them? This special issue addresses that question by outlining various aspects of current problems, more sustainable alternatives and elements of transition pathways to achieve a more sustainable future. The papers in this special issue each proceed from identifying unsustainable development on a specific level, space, region and/or amongst specific actors, to then highlighting facets of a potential alternative future state, either in the form of resolving that particular problem or as a vision of an overarching sustainable future. With regard to transitions, each article refers to shifts in governance approaches needed to achieve these alternative futures. This can be a transition specific to a certain level, space, region or actor or a transition across these multiple dimensions. A core theme cutting across most of the articles is the need for greater participation as well as the necessity to find solutions to the challenges such participation poses. Rather than attempting to paint a complete or definitive picture of a sustainable future, this special issue aims to shed light on the varied pathways towards different parts of such futures, to stimulate debate on the interface of science and policy and to inspire others who are on the same track.
Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the ... more Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the scope for an urgent step-change cut in CO2, this paper presents results from a participatory technology roadmapping exercise. Results: Combining existing incremental and novel technologies with slow-steaming can deliver reductions in CO2 of over 50% even in the short term for existing ships. However, roadmaps for three vessel types illustrate barriers to change including the sector's complexity, infrastructure lock-in and a need for tailored market and vessel-specific roadmaps to support decision-making. Conclusions: Through technology and engineering, the outlook for the shipping sector to significantly cut its CO2 emissions, even in the short term, is promising. Nevertheless, the scale of change requires support to demonstrate how the long-term low-carbon vision offers enough benefit to overcome necessary short-term investment.
Climate change presents shipping with the need to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Low carb... more Climate change presents shipping with the need to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Low carbon technology is considered a crucial element in rising to this challenge, demonstrated at the political level by regulation on the energy efficiency of new-builds. This paper analyses wind power as one category of technology in order to contribute to the body of knowledge that is needed to ascertain the potential for decarbonising shipping. Specifically, it combines a numerical model of a Flettner rotor with wind data from the UK Met Office's Unified Model to assess the potential wind power contribution along a route from Tubarao (Brazil) to Grimsby (UK). Applying the results to a typical bulk carrier equipped with three Flettner rotors making a round voyage on the route suggests possible fuel savings of 16%. More generally, the replicable results will allow for a deeper and, in turn, more realistic examination of the prospects for wind power. In doing so, the paper seeks to push the debate forward: by exploring wind power technology and by building accessible knowledge that may be key to a global sector meeting a global challenge.
In order to meet broadly legitimised climate change mitigation targets, all sectors need to decar... more In order to meet broadly legitimised climate change mitigation targets, all sectors need to decarbonise over the coming decades. In this paper, the potential scope for decarbonising the individual ship is assessed, considering the case of a bulk carrier of 40,000 GT. The study comprises of three stages: (i) Reducing the demand for propulsion power by reducing speed and incorporating estimates of efficiency gains from hull shape modifications and propeller optimisation; (ii) Estimating the maximum feasible contributions from wind and solar power, using historical weather data and technology characteristics from the literature; (iii) Assessing and comparing marine diesel, LNG, biofuel, and hydrogen for their potential to deliver the remaining propulsive energy demand with low associated carbon emissions.
Shipping needs to control its annual release of CO 2 emissions. Key is the development of appropr... more Shipping needs to control its annual release of CO 2 emissions. Key is the development of appropriate methods of accounting and monitoring. According to greenhouse gas protocol, if methods are to be of use to policymakers, they should fulfil five essential criteria: relevance, completeness, consistency, transparency, and accuracy. It is demonstrated here that all of the methods currently used fail to fulfil one or more of these criteria and are associated with high levels of uncertainty. As a solution, this paper presents a new method based on AIS (Automatic Identification System) data collected by satellite and land-based receivers. All ships of 300 gross tonnage and above are required to send AIS messages at regular intervals, including the ship's geographical position, course, and speed. Dedicated receivers in Earth orbit, and on the coast, pick up AIS messages from ships in their field of view. Using data from the International Space Station (ISS), complemented with data from land-based receiver stations, and a database of the world cargo shipping fleet, a viable method for calculating fuel consumption -and in turn CO 2 emissions -on the individual ship basis is presented. The method is subsequently assessed in terms of the five criteria. Suggestions on how the method should be calibrated and fine-tuned as it is scaled up to more complete data coverage are made. The paper demonstrates that this new method has the potential to provide a clear picture of international shipping CO 2 emissions, and is well-suited to be incorporated into emissions control policies currently being discussed at the global and the European levels, as well as informing the wider policy debate.
Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite,... more Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are presented. The methodology combines technology models and wind data along important trade routes. Wind power holds the potential for a step change reduction in shipping emissions.
Using technology to plot a course to a lower carbon future for international shipping. Report fro... more Using technology to plot a course to a lower carbon future for international shipping. Report from the EPSRC funded High Seas project roadmapping the shipping sector towards decarbonisation.
During the EPSRC funded High Seas Project, the research team have produced and disseminated a bro... more During the EPSRC funded High Seas Project, the research team have produced and disseminated a broad array of academic and policy-relevant outputs. This technical report summarises these outputs with links to detailed published work for those seeking more in-depth analysis.
The latest scientific framing of climate change emphasises the importance of limiting cumulative emissions and the need to urgently cut CO 2. International agreements on avoiding a 2°C global temperature rise make clear the scale of CO 2 reductions required across all sectors. Set against a context of urgent mitigation, the outlook for aviation's emissions is one of continued growth. Limited opportunities to further improve fuel efficiency, slow uptake of new innovations, coupled with anticipated rises in demand across continents collectively present a huge challenge to aviation in cutting emissions. Whilst difficulties in decarbonising aviation are recognised by industry and policymakers alike, the gap between what's necessary to avoid 2°C and aviation's CO 2 projections has profound implications. Biofuel is one of the few innovations that could play a significant role in closing the gap, but with low anticipated penetration before 2020 its contribution would have little impact over the desired timeframe. If the aviation sector does not urgently address rising emissions, there is an increasing risk that investment in new aircraft and infrastructure could lead to stranded assets. This leaves it facing an uncomfortable reality. Either the sector acts urgently on climate change and curtails rising demand, or it will be failing to take responsibility for a considerable and growing portion of climate change impacts.
What is the disparity between the climate and resource challenges we face and the measures in pla... more What is the disparity between the climate and resource challenges we face and the measures in place to meet them? This special issue addresses that question by outlining various aspects of current problems, more sustainable alternatives and elements of transition pathways to achieve a more sustainable future. The papers in this special issue each proceed from identifying unsustainable development on a specific level, space, region and/or amongst specific actors, to then highlighting facets of a potential alternative future state, either in the form of resolving that particular problem or as a vision of an overarching sustainable future. With regard to transitions, each article refers to shifts in governance approaches needed to achieve these alternative futures. This can be a transition specific to a certain level, space, region or actor or a transition across these multiple dimensions. A core theme cutting across most of the articles is the need for greater participation as well as the necessity to find solutions to the challenges such participation poses. Rather than attempting to paint a complete or definitive picture of a sustainable future, this special issue aims to shed light on the varied pathways towards different parts of such futures, to stimulate debate on the interface of science and policy and to inspire others who are on the same track.
Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the ... more Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the scope for an urgent step-change cut in CO2, this paper presents results from a participatory technology roadmapping exercise. Results: Combining existing incremental and novel technologies with slow-steaming can deliver reductions in CO2 of over 50% even in the short term for existing ships. However, roadmaps for three vessel types illustrate barriers to change including the sector's complexity, infrastructure lock-in and a need for tailored market and vessel-specific roadmaps to support decision-making. Conclusions: Through technology and engineering, the outlook for the shipping sector to significantly cut its CO2 emissions, even in the short term, is promising. Nevertheless, the scale of change requires support to demonstrate how the long-term low-carbon vision offers enough benefit to overcome necessary short-term investment.
Climate change presents shipping with the need to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Low carb... more Climate change presents shipping with the need to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Low carbon technology is considered a crucial element in rising to this challenge, demonstrated at the political level by regulation on the energy efficiency of new-builds. This paper analyses wind power as one category of technology in order to contribute to the body of knowledge that is needed to ascertain the potential for decarbonising shipping. Specifically, it combines a numerical model of a Flettner rotor with wind data from the UK Met Office's Unified Model to assess the potential wind power contribution along a route from Tubarao (Brazil) to Grimsby (UK). Applying the results to a typical bulk carrier equipped with three Flettner rotors making a round voyage on the route suggests possible fuel savings of 16%. More generally, the replicable results will allow for a deeper and, in turn, more realistic examination of the prospects for wind power. In doing so, the paper seeks to push the debate forward: by exploring wind power technology and by building accessible knowledge that may be key to a global sector meeting a global challenge.
In order to meet broadly legitimised climate change mitigation targets, all sectors need to decar... more In order to meet broadly legitimised climate change mitigation targets, all sectors need to decarbonise over the coming decades. In this paper, the potential scope for decarbonising the individual ship is assessed, considering the case of a bulk carrier of 40,000 GT. The study comprises of three stages: (i) Reducing the demand for propulsion power by reducing speed and incorporating estimates of efficiency gains from hull shape modifications and propeller optimisation; (ii) Estimating the maximum feasible contributions from wind and solar power, using historical weather data and technology characteristics from the literature; (iii) Assessing and comparing marine diesel, LNG, biofuel, and hydrogen for their potential to deliver the remaining propulsive energy demand with low associated carbon emissions.
Shipping needs to control its annual release of CO 2 emissions. Key is the development of appropr... more Shipping needs to control its annual release of CO 2 emissions. Key is the development of appropriate methods of accounting and monitoring. According to greenhouse gas protocol, if methods are to be of use to policymakers, they should fulfil five essential criteria: relevance, completeness, consistency, transparency, and accuracy. It is demonstrated here that all of the methods currently used fail to fulfil one or more of these criteria and are associated with high levels of uncertainty. As a solution, this paper presents a new method based on AIS (Automatic Identification System) data collected by satellite and land-based receivers. All ships of 300 gross tonnage and above are required to send AIS messages at regular intervals, including the ship's geographical position, course, and speed. Dedicated receivers in Earth orbit, and on the coast, pick up AIS messages from ships in their field of view. Using data from the International Space Station (ISS), complemented with data from land-based receiver stations, and a database of the world cargo shipping fleet, a viable method for calculating fuel consumption -and in turn CO 2 emissions -on the individual ship basis is presented. The method is subsequently assessed in terms of the five criteria. Suggestions on how the method should be calibrated and fine-tuned as it is scaled up to more complete data coverage are made. The paper demonstrates that this new method has the potential to provide a clear picture of international shipping CO 2 emissions, and is well-suited to be incorporated into emissions control policies currently being discussed at the global and the European levels, as well as informing the wider policy debate.
Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite,... more Numerical models of two wind power technologies for shipping, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are presented. The methodology combines technology models and wind data along important trade routes. Wind power holds the potential for a step change reduction in shipping emissions.
Using technology to plot a course to a lower carbon future for international shipping. Report fro... more Using technology to plot a course to a lower carbon future for international shipping. Report from the EPSRC funded High Seas project roadmapping the shipping sector towards decarbonisation.
During the EPSRC funded High Seas Project, the research team have produced and disseminated a bro... more During the EPSRC funded High Seas Project, the research team have produced and disseminated a broad array of academic and policy-relevant outputs. This technical report summarises these outputs with links to detailed published work for those seeking more in-depth analysis.
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Papers by Michael Traut
The latest scientific framing of climate change emphasises the importance of limiting cumulative emissions and the need to urgently cut CO 2. International agreements on avoiding a 2°C global temperature rise make clear the scale of CO 2 reductions required across all sectors. Set against a context of urgent mitigation, the outlook for aviation's emissions is one of continued growth. Limited opportunities to further improve fuel efficiency, slow uptake of new innovations, coupled with anticipated rises in demand across continents collectively present a huge challenge to aviation in cutting emissions. Whilst difficulties in decarbonising aviation are recognised by industry and policymakers alike, the gap between what's necessary to avoid 2°C and aviation's CO 2 projections has profound implications. Biofuel is one of the few innovations that could play a significant role in closing the gap, but with low anticipated penetration before 2020 its contribution would have little impact over the desired timeframe. If the aviation sector does not urgently address rising emissions, there is an increasing risk that investment in new aircraft and infrastructure could lead to stranded assets. This leaves it facing an uncomfortable reality. Either the sector acts urgently on climate change and curtails rising demand, or it will be failing to take responsibility for a considerable and growing portion of climate change impacts.
Reports by Michael Traut
The latest scientific framing of climate change emphasises the importance of limiting cumulative emissions and the need to urgently cut CO 2. International agreements on avoiding a 2°C global temperature rise make clear the scale of CO 2 reductions required across all sectors. Set against a context of urgent mitigation, the outlook for aviation's emissions is one of continued growth. Limited opportunities to further improve fuel efficiency, slow uptake of new innovations, coupled with anticipated rises in demand across continents collectively present a huge challenge to aviation in cutting emissions. Whilst difficulties in decarbonising aviation are recognised by industry and policymakers alike, the gap between what's necessary to avoid 2°C and aviation's CO 2 projections has profound implications. Biofuel is one of the few innovations that could play a significant role in closing the gap, but with low anticipated penetration before 2020 its contribution would have little impact over the desired timeframe. If the aviation sector does not urgently address rising emissions, there is an increasing risk that investment in new aircraft and infrastructure could lead to stranded assets. This leaves it facing an uncomfortable reality. Either the sector acts urgently on climate change and curtails rising demand, or it will be failing to take responsibility for a considerable and growing portion of climate change impacts.