Papers by Athanasia Kalaitzi
Economic Change and Restructuring
This study investigates whether manufactured exports contribute to economic growth and whether im... more This study investigates whether manufactured exports contribute to economic growth and whether imports can augment the role of exports in fostering export diversification. In the case of the latter, the study also examines which categories of imports are most likely to facilitate economic growth in the long run. In particular, the study focuses on the case of Kuwait over the period 1970–2019 and utilizes a Cobb–Douglas production function augmented with manufactured exports and primary and manufactured imports. The long-run relationships between the model variables are explored using two cointegration tests, namely the Johansen test and the dynamic ordinary least squares. The short-run causality is investigated utilizing the multivariate Granger approach in a vector autoregressive model, the parameters of which are assessed for stability using the CUSUM of squares test and recursive residuals plots. To examine the causal relationships in the long run, the Toda and Yamamoto test is a...
Review of Middle East Economics and Finance
This paper investigates whether non-primary exports directly or indirectly cause economic growth ... more This paper investigates whether non-primary exports directly or indirectly cause economic growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This study performs the Johansen test to examine the presence of co-integration between the variables in an augmented production function. The Granger causality test is performed to investigate the short-run causality between non-primary exports and economic growth, while the long-run causality is investigated by employing the Toda and Yamamoto procedure. The empirical analysis indicates that the variables are co-integrated, and that short-run causality runs from non-primary exports to economic growth; results exhibit no evidence of direct causality from non-primary exports to economic growth in the long-run.
This study examines causality among manufactured exports, imports and economic growth in Kuwait. ... more This study examines causality among manufactured exports, imports and economic growth in Kuwait. Much of the development literature has emphasized the important role of exports in economic growth. Export growth improves productivity through increasing specialization in the export-oriented sector and optimal resource reallocation (Giles and Williams, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 2000). In addition, increased foreign exchange earnings, due to export expansion, finance imports essential for export-oriented production and economic growth. In turn, economic growth can lead to further export expansion by improving physical capital and the level of technology through imports (Shahbaz, Economic Modelling, 2012; Çevik et al., Economies, 2019). The degree to which exports accelerate economic growth and, in turn, facilitate further export expansion is dependent on the export and import categories in which the expansion takes place. Evidence from a number of countries suggests that expansion of primary exports (e.g., oil, gas and minerals) can slow down economic growth, while manufactured exports (e.g., machinery and transport equipment) can accelerate economic growth through knowledge spillover effects on both the export and non-export sectors of the economy (Sachs and Warner,
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2020
ABSTRACT This study investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) in five G... more ABSTRACT This study investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) in five GCC countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The study uses an augmented production function and annual time series data over the period 1975-2016. For the estimation of the models, the Johansen cointegration test is employed to test the existence of a long-run relationship between growth and exports. In addition, the multivariate Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive model framework and a modified version of the Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The empirical results provide evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run for the UAE, while the converse is true for Bahrain. In addition, a bi-directional causality exists between exports and growth in the case of Kuwait. In the long-run, the validity of the ELG is confirmed in the case of Bahrain, while economic growth causes exports in the case of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
International Advances in Economic Research, 2020
Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2019
This study investigates the relationships between exports and economic growth in the United Arab ... more This study investigates the relationships between exports and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates. Understanding these relationships is important for purposes of establishing appropriate growth and development policies and strategies. The study uses an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function to examine the causality between non-oil exports, re-exports and economic growth over the period 1981–2012. To investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables, the study performs the Johansen cointegration test, while the direction of the short-run causality is examined by applying the Granger causality test in a vector error correction model framework. A modified Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model is applied in order to find the direction of the long-run causality. This research provides evidence in support of an indirect short-run uni-directional causality from economic growth to re-exports, through physical capital accumulation and impo...
Sustainability, 2018
This research empirically investigates the causality between trade, technology, human capital and... more This research empirically investigates the causality between trade, technology, human capital and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1980-2016. To investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables, this study performs the Johansen cointegration test, while the direction of the short-run causality is examined by applying the Granger causality test in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. Moreover, a modified Wald test in an augmented Vector Autoregressive Model is applied in order to find the direction of the long-run causality. This research provides evidence to support a short-run bi-directional causality between primary imports and economic growth, while an indirect causality runs from manufactured imports and human capital to economic growth, through exports and primary imports. Empirical results do not provide evidence of either an Import-Led growth (ILG) or Export-Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis in the long-run, while no causality runs from primary imports, manufactured imports or exports to human capital.
Eurasian Business Review, 2017
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2020
This study examines the causal effects of traditional UAE exports on economic growth over the per... more This study examines the causal effects of traditional UAE exports on economic growth over the period 1981-2012, using a neoclassical production function augmented with fuel-mining exports and imports of goods and services. To investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between fuelmining exports and economic growth, the study applies the Johansen cointegration test, while the direction of the short-run causality is examined by applying the Granger causality test in a vector error correction model framework. In addition, a modified Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model, developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), is used to investigate the existence of a long-run causality between the variables. The cointegration analysis confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables, while fuel-mining exports are found to have a negative impact on economic growth. Moreover, the study finds that fuel-mining exports do not cause economic growth in the short-run or the long-run.
Eurasian Business Review, 2017
In the original version of this article, Eqs. 5, 15–27 and 29–34 were displayed erroneously. Thes... more In the original version of this article, Eqs. 5, 15–27 and 29–34 were displayed erroneously. These mistakes happened during the production process of the article and unfortunately remained unnoticed. The publisher apologizes for any inconvenience caused. The original article has been corrected. The correct equations are given below:
The principal question that this thesis addresses is the validity of the Export-Led Growth hypoth... more The principal question that this thesis addresses is the validity of the Export-Led Growth hypothesis (ELG) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), using annual time series data over the period 1975-2012. Therefore, the research identifies and evaluates the causal relationship between exports and economic growth, by shedding further light on the causal effects, subcategories of exports can have. In doing so, various unit root tests have been applied to examine the time-series properties of the variables, while the Johansen cointegration test is employed to test the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, the multivariate Granger causality test and a modified version of Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The findings confirm that the ELG hypothesis is valid for UAE in the short-run, highlighting the importance of export sector in the UAE economy. However, by disaggregating merchandise exports i...
The principal question that this research addresses is the validity of the Export-Led Growth hypo... more The principal question that this research addresses is the validity of the Export-Led Growth hypothesis (ELG) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1981–2012, focusing on the causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth. Unit root tests are applied to examine the timeseries properties of the variables, while the Johansen cointegration test is performed to confirm or not the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, the multivariate Granger causality test and a modified version of Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The cointegration analysis reveals that manufactured exports contribute more to economic growth than primary exports in the long-run. In addition, this research provides evidence to support a bi-directional causality between manufactured exports and economic growth in the short-run, while the Growth-Led Exports (GLE) hypothesis is valid i...
International Advances in Economic Research
A number of studies have identified the positive effect of exports on economic growth (export-led... more A number of studies have identified the positive effect of exports on economic growth (export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis) through enhanced economies of scale, adoption of advanced technology and greater capacity utilization (Feder,
Journal of Applied Economics
This paper examines the validity of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the United Arab Emi... more This paper examines the validity of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1975-2012, using a neoclassical production function augmented with merchandise exports and imports of goods and services. The study applies the Johansen cointegration technique and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, while the multivariate Granger causality test is applied to examine the direction of the short-run causality. In addition, the existence of long-run causality is investigated by applying a modified version of the Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model. The Johansen test and DOLS results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth. In addition, the study provides evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run, while no long-run causality is found to exist.
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Papers by Athanasia Kalaitzi