The presence of asymmetry in the relation between attendances and competitive balance in the Aust... more The presence of asymmetry in the relation between attendances and competitive balance in the Australian Football League is tested, over the period 1945-2010. The results from the well-specified structural time-series model validate the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, and the null of no asymmetry is rejected easily in the structural innovations of the series, although it is not rejected in the levels. The latter finding substantiates the reversibility (without net loss of demand) of league revenue-sharing and labor market policies that influence demand in professional sports leagues.
In this study, a time series analysis of the relationship over the business cycle between labour ... more In this study, a time series analysis of the relationship over the business cycle between labour force participation and unemployment in Australia is presented using the sample period extending from 1978Q1-2000Q4, with the purpose of testing for the presence of asymmetry. Seasonal adjustment of the variables is performed using the method outlined by , and the seasonally adjusted data is then detrended using the HP filter. The remaining cyclical components of the series are then utilised for the purposes of testing, producing estimates far more robust than those in antecedent studies. It is found that there is no presence of asymmetry in most cases, in complete contrast to other similar recent studies using Australian data. The only exception to this finding is the detection of the presence of asymmetry for males in the deepness type test.
Since the season ending in 2001, the Scottish Premier League (SPL) has, unlike other European foo... more Since the season ending in 2001, the Scottish Premier League (SPL) has, unlike other European football leagues, utilised an unbalanced schedule, by which the strongest teams in a given season play each other an extra time, mutatis mutandis for the weakest teams. While this approach may make sense for several reasons, it also has implications for within-season measures of competitive balance, because it creates biases in the set of win ratios from the end-of-season league table. This paper applies a simple log-probability rule to calculate a set of adjusted win ratios correcting for this inherent bias. Such an adjustment is necessary if one wishes to compare within-season competitive balance of the SPL with other European leagues. It is shown that by correcting for the unbalanced schedule, the SPL is consistently less competitive over the sample period. The implications of this finding are discussed at length. n La Trobe University
Using a structural time-series model attributed to Harvey (1989), the forecasting accuracy of key... more Using a structural time-series model attributed to Harvey (1989), the forecasting accuracy of key aggregate Australian tourism figures is investigated, namely total visitor arrivals and resident departures. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson Moving Average procedure used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to generate 'trended' series, distorts the underlying time-series properties of the data for forecasting purposes.
A new measure for competitive balance between seasons is proposed, which takes the form of a mobi... more A new measure for competitive balance between seasons is proposed, which takes the form of a mobility gain function, based on each team's win ratios from the current and previous seasons. This 'dynamic' function measures competitive balance within a oneperiod change framework. While it is not suggested that this measure replace useful existing within-season measures, such as the widely used actual-to-idealised standard deviation (ASD/ISD) ratio, this measure does overcome one of the shortcomings of within-season measures -that is, the ability to pick up uncertainty of outcome from season to season, rather than merely from round-to-round. Hence, it is suggested that this measure could be used in conjunction with within-season measures in time-series analysis.
While the linkage between team performance and attendances is well established, there has not bee... more While the linkage between team performance and attendances is well established, there has not been much research undertaken on the use of club memberships (as an alternative form of demand for sport). Specifically, how the number of memberships are affected by common measures of team performance, such as the team's win ratio. This study utilises a previously unavailable long range
A structural time-series model is estimated to investigate the relation between competitive balan... more A structural time-series model is estimated to investigate the relation between competitive balance, measured by the actual-to-idealised standard deviation ratio, and average match attendance in the Australian Football League from 1945 to 2005. The unobserved components approach allows the data to be modelled in ways new to the literature on this topic. A seemingly unrelated time-series version shows much of the explanatory power of the data to be in the irregular (fastmoving) component. An OLS regression produces robust goodness-of-fit and diagnostic results, and the coefficient estimates produce inferences in contrast to those of , with persistent shocks.
, some of the finer properties are substantially different. It is suggested that much of the reas... more , some of the finer properties are substantially different. It is suggested that much of the reason for this lies in differences between the segmented nature of these markets for attendances and memberships.
The conference and divisional system has long been a staple part of tournament design in the majo... more The conference and divisional system has long been a staple part of tournament design in the major pro-sports leagues of North America. This popular but highly rigid system determines on how many occasions all bilateral pairings of teams play each other during the season. Despite the virtues of this system, it necessitates removing the biases it generates in the set of win ratios from the regular season standings prior to calculating within-season measures of competitive balance. This article applies a modified version of a recent model, an extension that is generalizable to any unbalanced schedule design in professional sports leagues worldwide, to correct for this inherent bias for the NFL over the seasons 2002-2011, the results of which suggest the NFL is even more competitively balanced than thought previously.
Using a structural time-series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic v... more Using a structural time-series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving-average procedure distorts the underlying time-series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on 'trending' procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by 'detrending' the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead forecasts. Copyright 72 L. J. A. Lenten 6 Since there are many combinations of settings allowable, this approach helps limit the number of regressions of each variable to about 25-30 on average. Should the values of either i or  i be altered from their default settings, there are infinite possible combinations. 7 In model evaluation, some preference was given to more important criteria (for example, serial correlation over normality).
In the light of the still topical nature of 'bananas and petrol' being blamed for driving much of... more In the light of the still topical nature of 'bananas and petrol' being blamed for driving much of the infl ationary pressures in Australia in recent times, the 'headline' and 'underlying' rates of infl ation are scrutinised in terms of forecasting accuracy. A general structural time-series modelling strategy is applied to estimate models for alternative types of Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures. From this, out-of-sample forecasts are generated from the various models. The underlying forecasts are subsequently adjusted to facilitate comparison. The Ashley, test is then performed to determine whether there is a statistically signifi cant difference between the root mean square errors of the models. The results lend weight to the recent fi ndings of Song (2005) that forecasting models using underlying rates are not systematically inferior to those based on the headline rate. In fact, strong evidence is found that underlying measures produce superior forecasts. price level. These 'underlying' measures are also used in conjunction with the headline rate in matters of interest rate setting by the RBA Board in their monthly meetings.
Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 2008
The frequency of draws in test cricket has declined noticeably in the last fifteen years. This ha... more The frequency of draws in test cricket has declined noticeably in the last fifteen years. This has been brought about by changes in the style of the 5-day game, coupled with several rule changes designed to extend time played. While many believe this to be good for the game, a contrary argument advanced here suggests that too many Tests are finishing excessively early, and hence are more predictable. Regression results indicate that rising run rates and rising average wickets per Test have some explanatory power over the frequency of draws, but the rule changes have also played a big part. This is one issue (of several) that administrators must address to ensure that the oldest and purest form of the game is able to continue to compete for consumer interest with shorter forms of the game in the future.
The Australian Football League (AFL) has operated its fixture on the basis of an unbalanced sched... more The Australian Football League (AFL) has operated its fixture on the basis of an unbalanced schedule since the league expanded from 12 to 14 teams in 1987. This system contains a number of factors (some random) determining the set of bilateral combinations of teams that play each other on an extra occasion during the course of the season, not least of all maximising attendances. While the status quo may be unavoidable to some extent (it is also a bone of contention to many fans), its implications for within-season measures of competitive balance are nonetheless obvious. This is because biases are created in the end-of-season league table as a result of the unbalanced schedule. This paper uses a modified model to correct for this inherent bias over the seasons 1997-2008, and the results are discussed in intricate detail. The model is also generalisable to many unbalanced schedules designs observed in professional sports leagues worldwide.
The presence of asymmetry in the relation between attendances and competitive balance in the Aust... more The presence of asymmetry in the relation between attendances and competitive balance in the Australian Football League is tested, over the period 1945-2010. The results from the well-specified structural time-series model validate the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, and the null of no asymmetry is rejected easily in the structural innovations of the series, although it is not rejected in the levels. The latter finding substantiates the reversibility (without net loss of demand) of league revenue-sharing and labor market policies that influence demand in professional sports leagues.
In this study, a time series analysis of the relationship over the business cycle between labour ... more In this study, a time series analysis of the relationship over the business cycle between labour force participation and unemployment in Australia is presented using the sample period extending from 1978Q1-2000Q4, with the purpose of testing for the presence of asymmetry. Seasonal adjustment of the variables is performed using the method outlined by , and the seasonally adjusted data is then detrended using the HP filter. The remaining cyclical components of the series are then utilised for the purposes of testing, producing estimates far more robust than those in antecedent studies. It is found that there is no presence of asymmetry in most cases, in complete contrast to other similar recent studies using Australian data. The only exception to this finding is the detection of the presence of asymmetry for males in the deepness type test.
Since the season ending in 2001, the Scottish Premier League (SPL) has, unlike other European foo... more Since the season ending in 2001, the Scottish Premier League (SPL) has, unlike other European football leagues, utilised an unbalanced schedule, by which the strongest teams in a given season play each other an extra time, mutatis mutandis for the weakest teams. While this approach may make sense for several reasons, it also has implications for within-season measures of competitive balance, because it creates biases in the set of win ratios from the end-of-season league table. This paper applies a simple log-probability rule to calculate a set of adjusted win ratios correcting for this inherent bias. Such an adjustment is necessary if one wishes to compare within-season competitive balance of the SPL with other European leagues. It is shown that by correcting for the unbalanced schedule, the SPL is consistently less competitive over the sample period. The implications of this finding are discussed at length. n La Trobe University
Using a structural time-series model attributed to Harvey (1989), the forecasting accuracy of key... more Using a structural time-series model attributed to Harvey (1989), the forecasting accuracy of key aggregate Australian tourism figures is investigated, namely total visitor arrivals and resident departures. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson Moving Average procedure used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to generate 'trended' series, distorts the underlying time-series properties of the data for forecasting purposes.
A new measure for competitive balance between seasons is proposed, which takes the form of a mobi... more A new measure for competitive balance between seasons is proposed, which takes the form of a mobility gain function, based on each team's win ratios from the current and previous seasons. This 'dynamic' function measures competitive balance within a oneperiod change framework. While it is not suggested that this measure replace useful existing within-season measures, such as the widely used actual-to-idealised standard deviation (ASD/ISD) ratio, this measure does overcome one of the shortcomings of within-season measures -that is, the ability to pick up uncertainty of outcome from season to season, rather than merely from round-to-round. Hence, it is suggested that this measure could be used in conjunction with within-season measures in time-series analysis.
While the linkage between team performance and attendances is well established, there has not bee... more While the linkage between team performance and attendances is well established, there has not been much research undertaken on the use of club memberships (as an alternative form of demand for sport). Specifically, how the number of memberships are affected by common measures of team performance, such as the team's win ratio. This study utilises a previously unavailable long range
A structural time-series model is estimated to investigate the relation between competitive balan... more A structural time-series model is estimated to investigate the relation between competitive balance, measured by the actual-to-idealised standard deviation ratio, and average match attendance in the Australian Football League from 1945 to 2005. The unobserved components approach allows the data to be modelled in ways new to the literature on this topic. A seemingly unrelated time-series version shows much of the explanatory power of the data to be in the irregular (fastmoving) component. An OLS regression produces robust goodness-of-fit and diagnostic results, and the coefficient estimates produce inferences in contrast to those of , with persistent shocks.
, some of the finer properties are substantially different. It is suggested that much of the reas... more , some of the finer properties are substantially different. It is suggested that much of the reason for this lies in differences between the segmented nature of these markets for attendances and memberships.
The conference and divisional system has long been a staple part of tournament design in the majo... more The conference and divisional system has long been a staple part of tournament design in the major pro-sports leagues of North America. This popular but highly rigid system determines on how many occasions all bilateral pairings of teams play each other during the season. Despite the virtues of this system, it necessitates removing the biases it generates in the set of win ratios from the regular season standings prior to calculating within-season measures of competitive balance. This article applies a modified version of a recent model, an extension that is generalizable to any unbalanced schedule design in professional sports leagues worldwide, to correct for this inherent bias for the NFL over the seasons 2002-2011, the results of which suggest the NFL is even more competitively balanced than thought previously.
Using a structural time-series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic v... more Using a structural time-series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving-average procedure distorts the underlying time-series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on 'trending' procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by 'detrending' the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead forecasts. Copyright 72 L. J. A. Lenten 6 Since there are many combinations of settings allowable, this approach helps limit the number of regressions of each variable to about 25-30 on average. Should the values of either i or  i be altered from their default settings, there are infinite possible combinations. 7 In model evaluation, some preference was given to more important criteria (for example, serial correlation over normality).
In the light of the still topical nature of 'bananas and petrol' being blamed for driving much of... more In the light of the still topical nature of 'bananas and petrol' being blamed for driving much of the infl ationary pressures in Australia in recent times, the 'headline' and 'underlying' rates of infl ation are scrutinised in terms of forecasting accuracy. A general structural time-series modelling strategy is applied to estimate models for alternative types of Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures. From this, out-of-sample forecasts are generated from the various models. The underlying forecasts are subsequently adjusted to facilitate comparison. The Ashley, test is then performed to determine whether there is a statistically signifi cant difference between the root mean square errors of the models. The results lend weight to the recent fi ndings of Song (2005) that forecasting models using underlying rates are not systematically inferior to those based on the headline rate. In fact, strong evidence is found that underlying measures produce superior forecasts. price level. These 'underlying' measures are also used in conjunction with the headline rate in matters of interest rate setting by the RBA Board in their monthly meetings.
Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 2008
The frequency of draws in test cricket has declined noticeably in the last fifteen years. This ha... more The frequency of draws in test cricket has declined noticeably in the last fifteen years. This has been brought about by changes in the style of the 5-day game, coupled with several rule changes designed to extend time played. While many believe this to be good for the game, a contrary argument advanced here suggests that too many Tests are finishing excessively early, and hence are more predictable. Regression results indicate that rising run rates and rising average wickets per Test have some explanatory power over the frequency of draws, but the rule changes have also played a big part. This is one issue (of several) that administrators must address to ensure that the oldest and purest form of the game is able to continue to compete for consumer interest with shorter forms of the game in the future.
The Australian Football League (AFL) has operated its fixture on the basis of an unbalanced sched... more The Australian Football League (AFL) has operated its fixture on the basis of an unbalanced schedule since the league expanded from 12 to 14 teams in 1987. This system contains a number of factors (some random) determining the set of bilateral combinations of teams that play each other on an extra occasion during the course of the season, not least of all maximising attendances. While the status quo may be unavoidable to some extent (it is also a bone of contention to many fans), its implications for within-season measures of competitive balance are nonetheless obvious. This is because biases are created in the end-of-season league table as a result of the unbalanced schedule. This paper uses a modified model to correct for this inherent bias over the seasons 1997-2008, and the results are discussed in intricate detail. The model is also generalisable to many unbalanced schedules designs observed in professional sports leagues worldwide.
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